Presentation on theme: "Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Environmental Context for CoML Some cautions and a quick picture of elements of the system Edward Harrison, Chair,"— Presentation transcript:
Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Environmental Context for CoML Some cautions and a quick picture of elements of the system Edward Harrison, Chair, climate component of GOOS planning
Historical Ocean Sampling The global ocean has been under sampled in the past, physically and biologically Available evidence shows much decadal variability with complex sub-basin scale structure Short-term trends may mislead Global average uncertainties hard to estimate
Temp Data Distributions since 1950. 1950-62 1963-75 1976-88 1989-00 Caution! Blue colors mean fewer than 20% of months had any observations! 300m 500m
Running 20yr Temp Trends at 300m 55-75, 60-80 65-85, 70-90 75-95, 80-00 Red – warming Blue – cooling Caution! 95% of regions change sign!
90% Significant Temp Trends 1950-2000 50m, 100 300, 500 700, 1000 Caution: Little of the ocean has reliable trend! Opportunity: Match biological analyses to regions with well-established trends
Concluding Questions Can CoML focus some of its studies for 2010 on parts of the ocean with best observations for physical and environmental variables? Can CoML plan activities for CoML II (2011- 2020) that benefit from likely evolution of physical and environmental observing plans? Opportunity: 2008 SCOR conference on Ocean in a High CO2 World 6-8 October 2008 (talk with Ed Urban)