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Welcome Workshop on Foundational issues in risk assessment and risk management Hotel Laurin in Salò, Milano, Italy, 3-4 August 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Welcome Workshop on Foundational issues in risk assessment and risk management Hotel Laurin in Salò, Milano, Italy, 3-4 August 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Welcome Workshop on Foundational issues in risk assessment and risk management Hotel Laurin in Salò, Milano, Italy, 3-4 August 2012

2 -Systems Science and the Energetic challenge, -Institut des Sciences du Risque et de l’Incertain (ISRI), Centre of risk management and societal safety (SEROS)

3 Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway Lee B. Clarke, Rutgers University, USA Tony Cox, Cox Associates, USA Seth Guikema, John Hopkins University, USA Elisabeth Paté- Cornell, Stanford University, USA Enrico Zio, Politecnico di Milano, Italy, ECP, France Sven Ove Hansson, The Royal Institute of Stockholm, KTH, Sweden Roger Flage Elisabeth S. Fiskå Mitchell Small, Carnegie Mellon University, USA Henning Boje Andersen, Technical University of Denmark, DTU

4 The background How it all started my interest for foundational issues in risk assessment and management

5 Statfjord A Piper Alpha

6 Frequency/probability Loss of lives categories 1-2 >100

7 Foundation Concepts, principles Risk assessment and risk management Shaky

8 Seth GuikemaOrtwin RennEnrico Zio What is risk? What is terrorism risk? Assessment approaches, risk management principles Uncertainities in risk assessments, model uncertainties

9 Elisabeth Paté-Cornell - Paté-Cornell, M.E. (1996) Uncertainties in risk analysis: Six levels of treatment. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54 (2-3), Paté-Cornell, M.E. (2012) On black swans and perfect storms: risk analysis and management when statistics are not enough. Risk Analysis.

10 Sven Ove Hansson Möller, N., Hansson, S.O., Person, M., Safety is more than the antonym of risk. Journal of Applied Philosophy 23, 419–432. Aven (2008) Safety is the antonym of risk for some perspectives of risk. Safety Science

11 Tony Cox Cox, T. (2012) Confronting Deep Uncertainties in Risk Analysis. Risk Analysis Cox (2011) How Probabilistic Risk Assessment Can Mislead Terrorism Risk Analysts Cox (2010) Why Risk Is Not Variance: An Expository Note …

12 Henning Boje Andersen Mitchell Small Lee B. Clarke

13 Foundation Concepts, principles Risk assessment and risk management Shaky

14 Engineering Transpor- tation … Finance Medicine Knowledge about the «World» Concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles and methods for understanding, assessing, managing and communicating risk, vulnerability and uncertainties Risk assessment and management in different applications

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17 s Thompson KM, Deisler Jr. PH, Schwing RC. Interdisciplinary vision: The first 25 years of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), 1980–2005. Risk Analysis, 2005; 25:1333–1386. Nuclear risk community

18 Where is this enthusiasm now? Have we solved the fundamental problems of risk assessment and risk management ? Have these fields now a strong foundation? No, No, No

19 Foundation Concepts, principles Risk assessment and risk management Shaky

20 «Risk = expected loss» Risk P X C

21 For some experts “risk” equals expected loss of life expectancy (HM Treasury 2005, p. 33). Traditionally, hazmat transport risk is defined as the expected undesirable consequence of the shipment, i.e. the probability of a release incident multiplied by its consequence (Verma and Verter 2007). Risk is defined as the expected loss to a given element or a set of elements resulting from the occurrence of a natural phenomenon of a given magnitude (Lirer et al. 2001). Risk refers to the expected loss associated with an event. It is measured by combining the magnitudes and probabilities of all of the possible negative consequences of the event (Mandel 2007). Terrorism risk (Willis 2007): The expected consequences of an existent threat, which for a given target, attack mode, target vulnerability, and damage type, can be expressed as the probability that an attack occurs multiplied by the expected damage, given that an attack occurs. Flood risk is defined as expected flood damage for a given time period (Floodcite 2006).

22 x

23 John offers you a game: throwing a die ”1,2,3,4,5”: 6 ”6”: -24 What is your risk?

24 Risk (C,P): 6 5/ /6 Is based on an important assumption – the die is fair

25 Assumption 1: … Assumption 2: … Assumption 3: … Assumption 4: … … Assumption 50: The platform jacket structure will withstand a ship collision energy of 14 MJ Assumption 51: There will be no hot work on the platform Assumption 52: The work permit system is adhered to Assumption 53: The reliability of the blowdown system is p Assumption 54: There will be N crane lifts per year … Assumption 100: … … “Background knowledge” Assumptions Data Models Expert opinions Model: A very crude gas dispersion model is applied

26 Existing frameworks, principles and concepts

27 Terje Aven, University of Stavanger, Norway Lee B. Clarke, Rutgers University, USA Tony Cox, Cox Associates, USA Seth Guikema, John Hopkins University, USA Elisabeth Paté- Cornell, Stanford University, USA Enrico Zio, Politecnico di Milano, Italy, ECP, France Sven Ove Hansson, The Royal Institute of Stockholm, KTH, Sweden Roger Flage Elisabeth S. Fiskå Mitchell Small, Carnegie Mellon University, USA Henning Boje Andersen, Technical University of Denmark, DTU

28 Workshop Revitalise the focus and enthusiasm for fundamental issues in the risk field How should we proceed?

29 Output/deliverable from the workshop: A “special issue” of Risk Analysis comprising a set of relatively short perspective papers – 5-6 pages - of reflections and points of views of the participants; not methods and applications but reflections on: are we addressing the right questions with the proper analytical frameworks?

30 Theories, frameworks, principles, methods, concepts Today Future Theories, frameworks, principles, methods, concepts New types of systems and risks

31 Risk and uncertainty conceptualization, assessment and management in case of deep uncertainties … Deep uncertainties Black swans Unknown unknowns The need for seeing beyond probability to assess risk

32 Foundation Concepts, principles Risk assessment and risk management Substance of various issues What issues, challenges, and how to proceed

33 Issue Issues General challenges and measures to meet them

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35 SRA speciality group Decision Analysis and Risk Dose-Response Ecological Risk Assessment Economics and Benefits Analysis Emerging Nanoscale Materials<> Engineering and Infrastructure Exposure Assessment Microbial Risk Analysis Risk and Development Risk Communication Risk Policy and Law Security and Defense + Fundamental issues ?

36 Establish a forum for young talented researchers where fundamental issues is a key topic

37 Aven, T. (2012) Foundational issues in risk assessment and risk management. Risk Analysis. The SRA should revitalize its work on foundations and establish a group of experts to discuss and clarify issues related to fundamental definitions and principles. The leading journals in the risk fields should encourage more contributions focusing on foundational issues to refute obvious unfortunate conceptions. The journals should develop documents showing the scientific pillars of the fields to guide reviewers and editors in the paper-reviewing processes. Experts in the risk fields should be more involved in standardization committees to ensure that the directions supported by the standards are in line with the best competence and knowledge available.

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39 Workshop program ideas and structure

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