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THE NETHERLANDS SINCE WORLD WAR TWO: FROM RELIGIOUS PILLARS TO ULTRA-LIBERALISM? WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN PRESENTATION AT THE OBSERVATOIRE.

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Presentation on theme: "THE NETHERLANDS SINCE WORLD WAR TWO: FROM RELIGIOUS PILLARS TO ULTRA-LIBERALISM? WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN PRESENTATION AT THE OBSERVATOIRE."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE NETHERLANDS SINCE WORLD WAR TWO: FROM RELIGIOUS PILLARS TO ULTRA-LIBERALISM? WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN PRESENTATION AT THE OBSERVATOIRE SOCIOLOGIQUE DU CHANGEMENT PARIS - APRIL 27, 2007

2 THE LARGER PART OF MY PRESENTATION CONCERNS THE MENDRAS QUESTION DID SOMETHING LIKE THE SECOND FRENCH REVOLUTION TAKE PLACE IN THE NETHERLANDS BETWEEN 1965 AND 1984? I ALSO DISCUSS THE FIRST DUTCH REVOLUTION AND A POSSIBLE RECENT THIRD ONE

3 THE SHORT ANSWER TO THE MENDRAS QUESTION YES, IT DID IN THE SENSE THAT AN OPEN MIDDLE CLASS EMERGED A LARGE GROUP OF TECHNICALLY, ADMINISTRATIVELY AND COMMERCIALLY HIGHLY SKILLED PERSONS THE LONG ANSWER BUT A CHANGE FROM WHAT TO WHAT?

4 THE STARTING POINT OF THE SECOND REVOLUTION IN THE NETHERLANDS IS THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION IN THAT COUNTRY THAT OUTCOME FEATURES THE RELIGION OF PERSONS RELIGIOUS CHANGES AND THEIR AFTERMATH MAKE UP THE SECOND REVOLUTION THAT REVOLUTION BEGAN IN THE MID 1950s IT STILL IS NOT OVER ALTHOUGH A THIRD REVOLUTION NOW MAY BE UNDERWAY

5 DUTCH SOCIETY CONSISTED OF PERSONS BELONGING TO VARIOUS RELIGIONS UNTIL THE MID 1950s THERE WERE FEW PERSONAL TIES BETWEEN THESE PERSONS WITH EACH DENOMINATION HAVING ITS OWN ORGANISATIONS DUTCH SOCIETY WAS NOT SO MUCH STRATIFIED DUTCH SOCIETY WAS PILLARIZED

6 MY LONG ANSWER TO THE MANDRAS QUESTION: THE PILLARS OF DUTCH SOCIETY CRUMBLED BY EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AS PART OF THE DEMOCRATIC AND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS BUT RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS DELAYED THEIR COLLAPSE HERE I WILL NOT HUNT FOR OTHER EFFECTS OF EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION LIKE * SMALLER INCOME INEQUALITIES * MORE SOCIAL MOBILITY * LESS EDUCATIONAL HOMOGAMY * LOWER LEGITIMACY OF HIGH CULTURE BUT FOR EFFECTS OF A STEEP RELIGIOUS DECLINE * PARTICULARLY ULTRA-LIBERALISM

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8 THE NETHERLANDS AND THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION

9 THE RELIGIOUS SITUATION IN THE NETHERLANDS BEFORE THE BEGINNING OF THE SECOND ‘FRENCH’ REVOLUTION WAS THE OUTCOME OF THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION WITH HELP FROM THE FRENCH ARMY IN 1795 THE DUTCH PATRIOTS WHO HAD BEEN EXILED IN 1787 TO FRANCE COMMITTED A COUP D’ETAT IN THE NETHERLANDS

10 THE PRE-1795 GOVERNMENT WAS IN A PERPETUAL DEADLOCK SINCE EACH OF THE SEVEN PROVINCES MAKING UP THE NETHERLANDS HAD A VETO ABOUT STATE DECISIONS THE PATRIOTS DID AWAY WITH THE VETO RULE

11 IN PRE-1795 DAYS ONLY PROTESTANT PERSONS COULD HOLD PUBLIC OFFICES CATHOLIC PERSONS COULD NOT THE 1789 FRENCH LIST OF HUMAN RIGHTS WAS ADOPTED BY THE PATRIOT GOVERNMENT THE NEW DUTCH CONSTITUTION STIPULATED EQUAL RIGHTS BEFORE THE LAW IRRESPECTIVE OF RELIGION

12 AFTER 1815 EQUAL RIGHTS FOR PERSONS OF VARIOUS RELIGIONS BECAME PART OF THE DUTCH CONSITITUTION DUTCH FAMILY LAW AND PENAL LAW WERE NEAR-TRANSLATIONS OF THE CODE PENAL AND THE CODE CIVIL FAMILY LAW TOOK MARRIAGE OUT OFF THE JURISDICTION OF THE CHURCHES PENAL LAW DID NOT PUNISH SEX BETWEEN CONSENTING ADULTS OF THE SAME SEX

13 WITH THE CONSTITUTIONAL FREEDOM TO FOUND RELIGIOUS DENOMINATIONS VARIOUS KINDS OF ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS BROKE AWAY FROM THE OLD MAINSTREAM PROTESTANT CHURCH TO FORM THIS HAPPENED IN 1834, 1886, 1946 AND 2005 LEADING TO VARIOUS RE-REFORMED CHURCHES NEXT TO THE OLD REFORMED CHURCH

14 FROM 1870 ONWARDS DUTCH POLITICS WAS IN DEADLOCK WITH TWO STRONGLY DIVISIVE ISSUES GENERAL SUFFRAGE AND FULL STATE FUNDING OF RELIGIOUS PRIMARY SCHOOLS IN 1917 THE DEADLOCK WAS RESOLVED BY LOG ROLLING BETWEEN TWO OF THREE EQUALLY STRONG POLITICAL BLOCS

15 GENERALFUNDING SUFFRAGE RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS SOCIALISTSSTRONGLY NEUTRAL IN FAVOR PROTESTANTSNEUTRALSTRONGLY + CATHOLICSIN FAVOR LIBERALSAGAINSTAGAINST

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17 GENERAL SUFFRAGE COMPLETED THE FIRST FRENCH REVOLUTION IN THE NETHERLANDS BUT WHAT EFFECTS DID THE LAW HAVE THAT FUNDS RELIGIOUS AND STATE SCHOOLS EQUALLY? EFFECTS THAT GO TEMPORARILY AGAINST NISBET’S MODERNIZATION HYPOTHESIS THE INDUSTRIAL AND DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTIONS MAKE FOR MORE OPEN CLASSES AND A DECLINE OF THE SACRED

18 WHO BELIEVES THAT SECULARITY WILL INCREASE WHEN SCHOOLS BECOME RELIGIOUS?! INDEED, IN THE NETHERLANDS CATHOLICS AND PROTESTANTS NOT ONLY HAD THEIR OWN PRIMARY SCHOOLS THEY ALSO FOUNDED OTHER PROTECTIVE ASSOCIATIONS

19 CATHOLICS PROTESTANTS SOCIALISTS NEWSPAPER POLITICAL PARTY LABOR UNION UNIVERSITY NEVER BROADCASTING ASSOCIATION

20 * IN 1965 THE CATHOLIC NEWSPAPER BECAME INDEPENDENT OF THE CATHOLIC CHURCH * IN THE MID 1970s THE SOCIALIST NEWSPAPER CLOSED DOWN AFTER A STRING OF ELECTORAL LOSSES * IN 1977 THE CATHOLIC PARTY MERGED WITH THE TWO LARGEST PROTESTANT PARTIES * IN 1982 THE SOCIALIST LABOUR UNION AND THE CATHOLIC LABOUR UNION MERGED * BUT ALREADY IN THE MID 1950s THE PILLARS BEGAN TO BE UNDERMINED BY MORE RELIGIOUSLY MIXED MARRIAGES

21 ODDS RATIO’S FOR BEING A CHURCH MEMBER OR NOT AND VOTING FOR A CONFESSIONAL PARTY OR NOT , , , , , , , , , , , ,9 THE RELIGIOUS PARTIES NOT ONLY DECLINED BECAUSE OF FEWER RELIGIOUS PERSONS RELIGIOUS PERSONS BEGAN TO VOTE FOR NON-RELIGIOUS PARTIES (AND NOW SOMETIMES THE OTHER WAY AROUND)

22 THE PARADOX OF INTEGRATION AND COHESION If the members of church x have been to the school of that denomination, read its newspaper, listen to its radio programs, watch its television programs, vote for its party, belong to its labor union and marry within this church And if this holds for the members of the other denominations in a society too THEN THE MEMBERS OF THIS SOCIETY MAT BE CALLED STRONGLY INTEGRATED INTO THEIR OWN RELIGIOUS GROUPS BUT THE COHESION OF THIS SOCIETY IS WEAK The decline of pillarization increased Dutch cohesion

23 THE HYPOTHESIS EMBODIED IN THE INTEGRATION-COHESION PARADOX IS NOT A TAUTOLOGY SINCE THERE ARE INDEPENDENT INDICATORS FOR SOCIETAL COHESION SUCH AS * THE NUMBERS OF MONTHS IT TAKES AFTER AN ELECTION TO FORM A COALITION GOVERNMENT * THE CHANCES FOR A GOVERNMENT TO FALL BEFORE ITS TIME HAS RUN OUT

24 PUTNAM BURIED THE SUBSTANTIVELY INTERESTING PARADOX OF STRONG INDIVIDUAL INTEGRATION AND LIMITED SOCIETAL COHESION WITH THE EXPRESSIONS ‘BONDING SOCIAL CAPITAL’ AND ‘BRIDGING SOCIAL CAPITAL’ IN BOWLING ALONE PUTNAM SHOULD NOW WRITE BOWLING APART DID SCHNAPPER SEE THE PARADOX OF INTEGRATION AND COHESION IN QU’EST-QUE L’INTEGRATION?

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26 BACK TO THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MANDRAS QUESTION FOR THE NETHERLANDS DID RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS WEAKEN COHESION OF DUTCH SOCIETY? DID THEY STRENGTHEN PILLARIZATION? DID THEY MAKE FOR MORE RELIGIOUS HOMOGAMY?

27 YEARS AND PERCENT OF PRIMARY SCHOOL PUPILS IN RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

28 FROM MACRO-DATA TO MICRO DATA YEAR OF BIRTH, RELIGION OF PARENTS, TYPE OF PRIMARY SCHOOL ATTENDED RETROSPECTIVE DATA FROM THE NETHERLANDS’ FAMILY SURVEYS 1993, 1998 AND xx cath parents prot parents nonrel parents cath schools prot schools public schools NON-RELIOUS PARENTS NOW SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS SUPPOSEDLY FOR THEIR QUALITY – AND FEW MIGRANT PUPILS

29 Take religious homogamy as an indicator of the sacred Religious schools should make for more religious homogamy and should counter a trend towards less religious homogamy occasioned by jobs in factories (where denominations mix) Apply this opportunities hypothesis Under the condition that religious school attendance rose most in the 1920s and 1930s The tendency to marry within one’s own religion will increase until the 1950s and then will decline

30 Log odds ratio’s for Protestants marrying Catholics in the Netherlands and two large Dutch municipalities time series of administrative data

31 A DETAILED PICTURE OBTAINED BY LOGLINEAR MODELS AND SPLITTING THE PROTESTANTS INTO THE REFORMED AND THE BREAKAWAY RE-REFORMED 1955 AS THE WATERSHED

32 THE HYPOTHESIS THAT AN INCREASE IN ATTENDANCE OF RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS MAKES FOR MORE RELIGIOUS HOMOGAMY IS UPHELD AS WELL AS THE HYPOTHESIS THAT RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS CANNOT WIPE OUT THE EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIALIZATION

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34 THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MENDRAS QUESTION CONTINUED FROM MORE MIXED MARRIAGES AS AN INDICATOR OF SECULARIZATION TO A DECLINE IN CHURCH MEMBERSHIP AS AN INDICATOR OF IT WHY A DECLINE IN THE NETHERLANDS IN BELONGING TO ANY RELIGION?

35 BETWEEN 1960 AND 1971 THE PERCENT OF CATHOLICS INCREASED SLIGHTLY MISLEADING CROSS-SECTIONAL RATES GO AFTER EVENT-HISTORY MODELS

36 THE PIVOTAL SURVEY QUESTIONS * First ask persons whether they now count themselves as belonging to a denomination if no * Then ask persons whether or not their parents brought them up in a denominationif yes * Then ask persons to mention the year they stopped considering themselves as belonging to that denomination * Also ascertain the educational histories of persons In this way we could run discrete-time event-history models for leaving church with education as a time-dependent co-variate and we could avoid the causal difficulties of the cross-sectional relation for adults between religion and education

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38 MANIPULATION OF THE INTERACTION TERMS FOR YEAR AND DENOMINATION SHOW THAT NOWADAYS CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH DO NOT DIFFER BETWEEN DENOMINATIONS PROTESTANT SCHOOLS COUNTER CHURCH LEAVING CATHOLIC SCHOOLS DO NOT THE MORE NON-RELIGOUS PERSONS THERE ALREADY ARE IN A PROVINCE THE MORE LIKELY IS A RELIGIOUS PERSON LIVING IN THAT PROVINCE TO LEAVE CHURCH

39 + NOTE THAT WE CIRCUMVENT THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF STATISTICALLY DISTINGUISHING EFFECTS OF AGE, COHORT AND PERIOD BY BRINGING IN SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESES

40 IRRESPECTIVE OF A RELIGIOUS PERSON’S EDUCATION THE HIGHER THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF EDUCATION IN THE PROVINCE WHERE THIS PERSON LIVES THE MORE LIKELY THIS PERSON IS TO LEAVE CHURCH IF RELIGIOUS PARENTS VOTE FOR A LEFT-WING PARTY THEIR CHILDREN ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH

41 THE MAIN EFFECT OF AGE DOES NOT DISAPPEAR AFTER INTRODUCING LEAVING HOME AND MARRIAGE THE MAIN EFFECT OF EDUCATION DOES DISAPPEAR AFTER INTRODUCING AN INTERACTION OF LEAVING HOME AND EDUCATION PEOPLE BECOME NON-RELIGIOUS WHEN THEY LEAVE HOME AND CONTINUE THEIR EDUCATION

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43 THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MENDRAS QUESTION CONTINUED DUTCH RESEARCH ONLY ABOUT BELONGING? DAVIE’S POINT OF BELIEVING WITHOUT BELONGING IS MISLEADING SINCE AT LEAST IN THE NETHERLANDS BELIEF IS DECLINING TOO AND SINCE NON-AFFILIATION SHOULD MAKE FOR LESS BELIEF (the mirror image of Durkheim's hypotheses that integration into a group makes for living up to its norms and that rites reinforce beliefs)

44 INDEED, THE SURVEY QUESTION OF THE EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEYS AND DAVIES’ FINDINGS DO YOU BELIEVE IN GOD OR A HIGHER POWER? HAS A LITTLE-NOTICED BUILT-IN TENDENCY TO UNDERSTATE SECULARIZATION NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE WORD OR BUT ALSO BECAUSE THE QUESTION REFERS TO SOME GOD NOT TO THE GOD OF CHRISTIANITY

45 THE VARIOUS FINDINGS THAT DUTCH SOCIETY CONTINUES TO BE SECULARIZING WITH EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AS THE PROPELLER HAS BEEN MET WITH DISBELIEF BY SOCIOLOGISTS LIKE STARK WHO PREACH RATIONAL CHOICE MARKET THEORIES Greeley once took religiously mixed marriages as indicating secularization Now Greeley no longer does

46 MARKET THEORIES OF RELIGION ONLY SEE COMPETITION BETWEEN RELIGIONS * I HOLD THAT RELIGIONS COMPETE WITH EDUCATION * I HOLD THAT COMPETITION IS THERE EVEN IF EDUCATION TAKES PLACE IN RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS * I HOLD THAT RELIGION LOOSES OUT IF EDUCATION EXPANDS IN THE WAKE OF CONTINUING (POST)INDUSTRIALIZATION

47 IS THERE NOTHING IN THE CURRENT MARKET CRITICISMS OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION MAKES FOR SECULARIZATION? THE MOST RELIGIOUS PERSONS IN THE NETHERLANDS ARE THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS THEY ARE SOMETIMES ACTIVE WITHIN THE MAINSTREAM REFORMED CHURCH BUT MORE OFTEN BELONG TO SMALL BREAKAWAY RE-REFORMED CHURCHES

48 WE CALL ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS PERSONS WHO READ THE BIBLE IN THE 1632 TRANSLATION AND ADHERE TO THE ARTICLES OF FAITH OF THE HEIDELBERG CONFESSION THEY VOTE FOR A POLITICAL PARTY WHICH HAS BEEN GETTING TWO PERCENT OF THE VOTE SINCE WORLD WAR TWO SINCE 1973 THEY HAVE THEIR OWN BROADCASTING ASSOCIATION ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS NOW SEND THEIR CHILDREN TO THEIR OWN STATE-FUNDED SECUNDARY SCHOOLS

49 DO DUTCH ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS SECULARIZE AND IF YES DOES EDUCATION HAVE SOMETHING TO DO WITH THAT? DUTCH LAWS DO NOT REQUIRE VACCINATION AGAINST CONTAGIOUS DISEASES NON-VACCIONATION AGAINST CONTAGIOUS DISEASES IS WIDESPREAD AMONG ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS THEY HOLD THAT PREVENTIVE MEDICINE INTERFERES WITH GOD’S PLAN FOR EVERY PERSON DOES AMONG ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS FATHER’S EDUCATION RAISE THE CHANCES OF CHILD VACCINATION? AND DOES MOTHER’S EDUCATION DO SO TOO?

50 THE NETHERLANDS ACCORDING TO ADMINISTRATIVE VOTING STATISTICS HAS A BIBLE BELT AND ACCORDING TO ADMINISTRATIVE STATISTICS IN THIS AREA VACCINATION RATES ARE LOWER

51 IN ALL MUNICIPALITIES WHERE THE NON- VACCINATION RATE ONCE WAS HIGHER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY THE NON-VACCINATION RATE NOW IS LOWER THAN THE PERCENT VOTING FOR THE ORTHODOX PROTESTANT PARTY WHICH INDICATES THAT AT LEAST NOW SOME ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS HAVE THEIR CHILDREN VACCINATED

52 APART FROM AGGREGATE DATA WE STUDIED INDIVIDUAL DATA WE COLLECTED THEM BY INTERVIEWING IN 2002 AT AN ORTHODOX PROTESTANT SECUNDARY SCHOOL IN ROTTERDAM HELP FROM THE RELIGION-AND-SOCIETY TEACHER WE ASKED STUDENTS WHETHER THEY WERE VACCINATED OR NOT TABLE COMES FROM A MASTER THESIS

53 MODEL 1 MODEL 2MODEL 3MODEL 4MODEL 5 N B(s.e.)B B B B Constant – –1.22 Education father 0.16 * (0.07) 0.09 (0.08) 0.09 (0.07) 0.03 (0.29) Occupational status father 0.03* (0.01) 0.02 (0.01) Education mother 0.30* (0.09) 0.22* (0.09) 0.21* (0.10) Mother works outside home 0.15 (0.33) –0.29 (0.37) Dutch Reformed 1.65** (0.44) 1.32* (0.39) 1.58* * (0.45) Chi *(df = 5)9.21 (df = 8)6.16 (df = 8)6.48 (df = 8) P (Hosmer and Lemeshow test) Logistic regression of respondent is or is not vaccinated on parental education * = p < 0.05; ** = p < 0.01

54 IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 2002 ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS WHO ATTEND CHURCH TOGETHER WITH NON-ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE THEIR CHILDREN VACCINATED AMONG ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS EDUCATION MAKES FOR VACCINATION WITH MOTHER’S EDUCATION HAVING MORE EFFECT THAN FATHER’S EDUCATION

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56 ON WITH THE LONG ANSWER TO THE MANDRAS QUESTION THE NETHERLANDS AS ULTRA-LIBERAL BECAUSE OF EDUCATIONAL EXPANSION AND DEPILLARIZATION? ULTRA-LIBERIALISM ENJOYABLE FOR TOURISTS IN COFFEESHOPS AMSTERDAM AND VISIBLE IN THE 2004 MOVIE SIMON BY EDDY TERSTALL * THE WOMANIZER SIMON OWNS COFFEE SHOPS * AFTER THE DISCOVERY OF A BRAIN TUMOR SIMON TAKES EUTHANASIA * HIS TWO CHILDREN WITH A THAI WOMAN *ARE ADOPTED BY A GAY COUPLE * WITH SIMON ATTENDING THEIR MARRIAGE AS HIS LAST SOCIAL EVENT

57 WHAT IS TRUE OF THIS ULTRA-LIBERAL IMAGE? ACCORDING TO CHRISTIANITY SEXUAL ENJOYMENT IS SINFUL DID OPINIONS ABOUT PRE-MARITAL AND EXTRA- MARITAL SEX IN THE NETHERLANDS BECAME MORE LIBERAL BETWEEN ? YES, WHY? * BECAUSE THE DUTCH BECAME MORE EDUCATED AND LESS RELIGIOUS? * BECAUSE OF THE REPLACEMENT OF COHORTS BROUGHT UP WITH LOW DIVORCE RATES AND LOW FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION BY COHORTS GROWING UP WITH HIGHER DIVORCE RATES AND HIGHER FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION? * OR BECAUSE OF TIME-PERIOD EFFECTS WHICH AFFECT ALL COHORTS ALIKE?

58 KRAAYKAMP’S JMF 2002 FINDINGS OBTAINED BY STACKING SEVEN CROSS-SECTIONAL FILES INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION AND RELIGION MAKE COHORT EFFECTS ON OPINIONS ABOUT PREMARITAL SEX DISAPPEAR THERE IS A BIG LIBERALIZING PERIOD EFFECT COHORT EFFECTS ON OPINIONS ABOUT EXTRA- MARITAL SEX PERSIST WHEN INTRODUCING EFFECTS OF INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION AND RELIGION THE PERIOD EFFECT ON OPINIONS ABOUT EXTRA- MARITAL SEX IS DE-LIBERALIZING

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60 MORE ABOUT ULTRA-LIBERALISM DUTCH LAWS ABOUT DIVORCE, ABORTION, SOFT DRUGS AND EUTHANASIA WERE NOT THE FIRST TO BE LIBERALIZED IN EUROPE DUTCH PRACTICES IN THE 1970s WERE LIBERAL BECAUSE OFFENSES OF THE OLD LAWS WERE NOT PROSECUTED NO PROSECUTION TOOK PLACE BECAUSE OF A STAND-OFF IN PARLIAMENT THE CHRISTIAN PARTY WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT BLOCKED NEW LAWS LATER LAWS LEGALIZED PRACTICES

61 AFTER THE INTRODUCTION OF SAME-SEX PARTNERSHIPS IN THE NETHERLANDS IN 1998 GAY MARRIAGE WAS INTRODUCED IN 2001 THESE LAWS WERE PROPOSED BY THE FIRST GOVERNMENT EVER WHICH DID NOT INCLUDE THE LARGEST CHRISTIAN PARTY THEY WERE ACCEPTED BY PARLIAMENT WITH THE MEMBERS OF THE CHRISTIAN PARTIES VOTING AGAINST THIS UNIQUE COALITION DID AWAY WITH THE VETO POWER OF THE CHRISTIAN PARTIES SINCE 1917

62 WHO IN FAVOUR, WHO AGAINST GAY MARRIAGE? FOUR IMPROVEMENTS IN OUR RECENT RESEARCH * ABOLISH GAY MARRIAGE – NEUTRAL – MAINTAIN IT * RELIGION AS MEMBERSHIP AND AS ATTENDANCE * NOT ONLY PERSON’S RELIGION AND EDUCATION ALSO MOTHER’S RELIGION AND EDUCATION * PLUS MOTHER’S ATTITUDE MOTHER’S ATTITUDE MEASURED BY ASKING CHILD FOR RECOLLECTION

63 Gay marriage should be abolished % (1) Completely disagree (2) Largely disagree 15.7 (3) Don’t agree or disagree 18.7 ( 4) Largely agree (5) Completely agree 12.1 Source: Netherlands Family Survey 2003 ANSWERS TO AN EXTREME 2003 SURVEY ITEM OLDER ITEMS DID NOT DIFFERENTIATE ANYMORE

64 NO EFFECT OF MOTHER’S EDUCATION AND RELIGION AFTER BRINGING IN MOTHER’S ATTITUDE TOWARDS HOMOSEXUALITY WHEN PERSON WAS YOUNG RELIGION HAS LIMITED EFFECT WHEN MEASURED AS MEMBERSHIP MORE SO IF MEASURED AS CHURCH ATTENDANCE CHURCH ATTENDANCE MAKES PEOPLE MOVE FROM NEUTRALITY TOWARDS ABOLITION EDUCATION MOVES PEOPLE FROM NEUTRALITY TOWARDS MAINTAINANCE MEN MUCH MORE THAN WOMEN IN FAVOR OF ABOLISHING GAY MARRIAGE

65 Table 4:Importance of the different determinants in explaining attitude towards the abolition of gay marriage (by removing one characteristic from model 5 in table 3b; n=1204) Characteristic removedχ 2 loss Educational level mother0.14 Church membership/attendance mother1.96 Attitude mother towards homosexuality50.41** Highest educational level completed11.25** Field of study3.55 Church membership19.25* Religious elementary school2.28 % Protestants living in COROP area6.38* % Catholics living in COROP area2.86 Co-habitation status7.65 Sex11.98** Age1.83 Origin9.84* Church attendance53.18** Model χ ~ = p<0.10; * = p<0.05; ** = p<0.01 Source: Netherlands Family Survey Importance of determinants of attitude towards the abolition of gay marriage assessed by removing one characteristic from final model

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67 IS A THIRD REVOLUTION TAKING PLACE IN THE NETHERLANDS RIGHT NOW? THE STARTING POINT OF THE THIRD REVOLUTION IS THE OUTCOME OF THE SECOND REVOLUTION THE THIRD REVOLUTION BEGAN WITH THE MURDER OF THE POLITICIAN FORTUYN IN 2002 AND THE MURDER OF THE COLUMNIST VAN GOGH IN 2005

68 DUTCH SOCIOLOGISTS HAVE STUDIED MIGRATION QUESTIONS SINCE THE EARLY 1980s NOW 300,000 PERSONS FROM TURKEY AND 300,000 FROM MOROC SOCIOLOGISTS HAVE BEEN PRE- OCCUPIED WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT INEQUALITIES BETWEEN MIGRANTS AND NATIVES SOCIOLOGISTS FOR A LONG TIME NEGLECTED QUESTIONS ABOUT MIGRATION AND COHESION

69 GIVEN RESTRICTIVE MIGRATION LAWS MIGRATION AS A POLITICAL ISSUE IS TURNING INTO THE SOCIOLOGICAL ISSUE OF THE FRIENDLY AND HOSTILE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE ISLAMIC INHABITANTS OF THE NETHERLANDS AND ITS ULTRA-LIBERAL NON- DENOMINATIONAL INHABITANTS AND THE OTHER WAY AROUND CONTRARY TO HUNTINGTON THERE WILL BE NO CLASH BETWEEN CHRISTIANITY AND ISLAM

70 AT THE END OF THE 1990s SOCIOLOGISTS HAD REPHRASED QUESTIONS ABOUT INEQUALITIES BETWEEN MIGRANTS AND NATIVES AS INTEGRATION QUESTIONS SOCIOLOGISTS TALKED AND TALK ABOUT INTEGRATION INTO THE LABOUR MARKET AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION THIS WAS PURELY VERBAL QUESTIONS ABOUT MIGRATION AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION ARE QUESTIONS ABOUT * HOW MANY MIGRANT CO-WORKERS DOES A MIGRANT WORKER HAVE? * HOW MANY NON-MIGRANTS HAVE A MIGRANT AS THEIR SUPERVISOR?

71 BY POINTING TOWARDS THE EARLIER PILLARIZATION OF DUTCH SOCIETY AROUND 1990 SOME POLITICIANS OF THE CHRISTIAN PARTY SUPPOSED THAT ISLAMIC SCHOOLS WOULD REDUCED CRIMINALITY AMONG MIGRANT YOUTHS ISLAMIC PRIMARY SCHOOLS NOWADAYS EXIST IN ALL LARGE DUTCH TOWNS THEY RANK LOW IN THE ANNUAL SCHOOL LISTS OF AVERAGE APTITUDE TESTS EVEN TAKING THE BACKGROUND OF THEIR PUPILS INTO ACCOUNT

72 IF THE DEGREE OF (DIS)COHESION OF A SOCIETY IS INDICATED BY FRIENDLY AND HOSTILE RELATIONS BETWEEN PERSONS DIFFERING IN DENOMINATION THERE IS A LIST OF CONCRETE QUESTIONS ON THE THIRD DUTCH (COUNTER) REVOLUTION *RESIDENTIAL SEGREGATION * WHO LIVES NEXT DOOR TO WHO? * MIXED FRIENDSHIPS IN SCHOOL * WHO MARRIES WHO? * WHO HAS WHO AS CO-WORKER AND AS SUPERVISOR? * WHO SPORTS IN A CLUB WITH WHOM? * WHICH NATIVES VOTE FOR ANTI-MIGRANT PARTIES? * WHO ROBS WHO ON THE STREET? * WHO KILLS WHO? * WHO SETS WHOSE BUILDINGS ON FIRE?

73 THERE IS QUALITATIVE RESEARCH ON THE EFFECTS OF MOROCCAN AND TURKISH SOCCER CLUBS STUDYING SOCCER APART? HOWEVER IMPORTANT IT MAY BE TO STUDY THE NUMBER OF FRIENDLY TIES A MIGRANT HAS WITH NATIVES IT MAY BE MORE IMPORTANT TO STUDY THE NUMBER OF FRIENDLY TIES THAT A NATIVE HAS WITH MIGRANTS FRIENDSHIP - AND TRUST - ARE NOT NECESSARILY RECIPROCAL

74 ONGOING QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH ON THE DEGREE OF TRUST NATIVES HAVE IN FOREIGNERS FACTORS THAT TURN OUT TO MAKE FOR MORE TRUST * MEMBERSHIP OF MIXED SPORT CLUB * LIVING IN A MIXED NEIGBORHOOD * HAVING VISITED A MIXED SCHOOL CAUSALITY ISSUES! * NUMBER OF YEARS MEMBER OF THIS CLUB * HAVING BEEN A SPORT CLUB MEMBER

75 POLITICIANS BEGIN TO GRASP THE INTEGRATION-COHESION PARADOX AND THEY TAKE AS INDEPENDENT INDICATORS FOR SOCIETAL DISCOHESION PHENOMENA LIKE * THE CHANCES OF RIOTS AFTER A ‘WHITE’ POLICEMAN SHOOTS A ‘BLACK’ PERSON * THE CHANCES OF ARSON AT A MOSQUE OR AN ISLAMIC SCHOOL AFTER THE MURDER OF A PUBLIC OPPONENT OF THE ISLAM BY AN ISLAMIC PERSON

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77 AFTER THE 2004 MURDER OF VAN GOGH VARIOUS ATTEMPTS AT ARSON NEAR MOSQUES AND ISLAMIC SCHOOLS WERE REPORTED WE MADE A LIST OF ALL SUCH INCIDENTS FOR THE YEARS USING REPORTS OF A PRIVATE ANTI- DISCRIMINATION FOUNDATION AND NEWSPAPER CLIPPINGS WE ARE ABOUT TO BEGIN TO ANALYZE THESE DATA

78 WE REGARD RELIGIOUS MURDERS AS A TOO RARE PHENOMENON TO STUDY AND TRUST ATTITUDES AS A PHENOMENON ARE PERHAPS NOT TELLING ENOUGH ARSON AND OTHER SUCH PHENOMENA MIGHT BE MORE TELLING INDICATORS OF SOCIETAL DISCOHESION CASES OF ARSON, DEFACING ETC ARE CALLED INCIDENTS

79 NUMBER OF INCIDENTS IN A YEAR INCLUDING INCIDENTS AT CAMPS FOR ASYLUM SEEKERS

80 NUMBER OF INCIDENTS ON A MONTHLY BASIS

81 WE HAVE THE NAME OF THE TOWN WHERE AN INCIDENT TOOK PLACE AND WE ASSEMBLED MUNICIPAL DATA LIKE * THE PERCENT OF MIGRANT INHABITANTS * THE LOCAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE * AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME * PERCENT LIVING ON SOCIAL SECURITY SINCE AVERAGES FOR A TOWN’S POPULATION MAY BE USELESS WE ARE ASSEMBLING FULL EDUCATIONAL AND DENOMINATIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS FOR TOWNS

82 MOSQUES IN DUTCH MUNICI- PALITIES AS THE ‘POPULATION AT RISK’

83 INCIDENTS AFTER MUNICI- PALITY

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85

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87 ALL THESE GRAPHS ARE A BIT MISLEADING WE WAVER BETWEEN MISQUES AND BETWEEN MUNICIPALITIES AS THE UNIT OF ANALYSIS WE SHOULD BE TAKING MOSQUES AND SCHOOLS WITHIN MUNICIPALITIES AND WITHIN MONTHS AS THE RECOND OF ANALYSIS

88 WE AIM FOR EVENT-HISTORY MODELS WITH MOSQUES AND ISLAMIC SCHOOLS WITHIN MUNICIPALITIES AND MONTHS AS THE RECORD OF ANALYSIS WE ALSO WISH TO MODEL CONTAGION FROM ONE TOWN TO NEARBY TOWNS BUT WE DO NOT KNOW YET HOW TO DO THAT

89 SO NO ANSWER YET TO THE QUESTION OF WHETHER A THIRD REVOLUTION IS NOW TAKING PLACE IN THE NETHERLANDS A REVOLUTION WITH INCREASING POLARIZATION OF ISLAMIC PERSONS AND PERSONS WITHOUT A DENOMINATION? WITH DISCOHESION GOING FURTHER THAN IN THE DAYS OF PILLARIZATION? A COUNTER-REVOLUTION?

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