Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Game Rules Rule #1: –The number of objects left in the bowl at the end of every 10 seconds will double. (max: 14) Rule #2: –The object of the game is.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Game Rules Rule #1: –The number of objects left in the bowl at the end of every 10 seconds will double. (max: 14) Rule #2: –The object of the game is."— Presentation transcript:

1

2 Game Rules Rule #1: –The number of objects left in the bowl at the end of every 10 seconds will double. (max: 14) Rule #2: –The object of the game is for the players to acquire as many objects as possible. Rule #3: –Players cannot communicate with each other

3 Dollar Auction I will auction off a dollar in class today Rules: –Both the highest bidder and the previous highest bidder have to pay their bids

4 International trends In 1971, Italy’s population - 54 million Bangladesh had 66 million people in a smaller area (size of Wisconsin) In 2000, Italy’s population stabilized at 57 million Bangladesh population doubled to 132 million, and still growing

5 International trends Italians now among world’s wealthiest & best educated. Bangladeshi children are mostly underfed, unemployment is high, and literacy rate is low (65 percent are illiterate). Bangladeshis emigrants not welcome in India (also overcrowded). ~ ½ size of U.S., almost 4x number of people Why don’t Bangladeshis, like Italians, stop self- destructive overpopulation?

6 Defining Social Dilemmas Social Dilemma: –A situation in which individuals profit from selfishness unless everyone chooses the selfish alternative, in which case everyone loses. –Individuals must choose between maximizing their personal outcomes and maximizing their group’s outcomes

7 Bonnie and Clyde Arrested! Bonnie and Clyde have been arrested for suspected bank robbery, but the police has little evidence The police offered them immunity from prosecution for a confession If both stay silent then both get a short sentence on a minor charge If both blame other then both receive a moderate sentence If only one blames the other then that criminal goes free and the remaining criminal gets a long sentence

8 Keep silent (Coop) Blame other (Defect) Keep silent (Coop) Blame other (Defect) 1 year Clyde 20 Years Life Parole Life Parole Prisoner’s Dilemma Bonnie

9 This a social dilemma—there is no perfect choice. The best outcome occurs if both individuals cooperate and remain quiet. But the best individual outcome comes from confessing. Many social dilemmas pit individual against group interests. What’s the Dilemma? Cooperate? Compete?

10 Focus on Social Dysfunction: Tragedy of the Commons Garrett Hardin (1968) noted common pastures in New England were often overgrazed. Each individual who shared a common pasture faced a dilemma: –Adding another animal could help him/her. –However, if everyone did this, the common pasture would be quickly ruined.

11

12 Focus on Social Dysfunction: Tragedy of the Commons Replenishing Resource Management Dilemma: a situation in which group members share a renewable resource that will: –Continue to produce benefits if group members don’t over-harvest, but – Each person profits from harvesting as much as possible.

13 If students kept pool in top quarter, points replenished rapidly (1 every 6 sec) If they took points too fast, replenishment slowed

14 Down to 12 sec in second quarter 18 sec in third quarter 24 sec in 4th quarter When last point taken, the game was over

15 U.S. population as % of world total U.S. energy use as % of world total

16 “Goals” of Social Dilemmas 1.Gain immediate satisfaction 2.Defending ourselves and others 3.Reproduction

17 1. Gaining Immediate Satisfaction Social trapSocial trap  situation where individuals or groups are drawn towards immediate rewards that later prove to have unpleasant or lethal consequences

18 1. Gaining immediate satisfaction How can we change the consequences of short- sighted behavior? Change the timing of rewards & punishments 1.Use alternative technologies to change long-term negative consequences 2.Move future negative consequences into present 3.Add immediate punishments for undesirable behavior 4.Reinforce more desirable alternatives

19 Will any one strategy work? Command-and Control Type of Intervention Market-based Voluntarist Motive Activated Fear Loss of educational benefits for families having too many children Example Greed Tax rebates for consumers who purchase solar heating panels Organization appeals for people to write Congress in support of wilderness preservation Social Responsibility

20 2. Defending ourselves and others Defensive behavior in response to group conflict often has unintended negative consequences

21 Research Study: Threats Participants could win/lose $$ by making “truck deliveries” on either direct or circuitous routes Could cooperate or compete (blocking) with opponent Most $$ by cooperating on direct route

22 The Trucking Game ACME Start ACME Destination BOLT Destination BOLT Start Each company has indirect route A shared one lane short route Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route

23 ACME Start The Trucking Game Each company has indirect route A shared one lane short route Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route Start A Destination A Destination B ACME Destination BOLT Destination BOLT Start

24 ACME Start The Trucking Game Each company has indirect route A shared one lane short route Best solution is cooperation to go one at a time on the shared route Start A Destination A Destination B ACME Destination BOLT Destination BOLT Start

25 Research Study: Threats Participants could win/lose $$ by making “truck deliveries” on either direct or circuitous routes Could cooperate or compete (blocking) with opponent Most $$ by cooperating on direct route Opponent’s strategy: –Punitive deterrent  severe punishment if blocked –Nonpunitive deterrent  mild punishment, switched back to cooperative –Turn-the-other-cheek  no punishment ever

26 Average Payoff Earned 12 1st2nd3rd4th trial blocks Non-punitive deterrent Punitive deterrent Turn-the-other-cheek punitive strategy The punitive strategy started out successfully, but over time it made the opponent angry and elicited costly counter-attacks Non-punitive deterrent Non-punitive deterrent is similar to “Tit-for-Tat” - rewards cooperation, punishes defection

27 2. Defending ourselves and others Complex thinking in leaders goes down as conflict goes up Likelihood of failing at social dilemmas increases

28 The Dollar Game A game in which a group bids for a dollar, but in which second bidder also has to pay. Bidders begin seeking easy reward, but end up desperately trying to avoid loss. Bids sometimes go as high as $20 (Teger, 1980) Real world example? –U.S. / U.S.S.R. arms race

29 The Dollar Game U.S. Sen. Edward Johnson - “God almighty in his infinite wisdom dropped the A-bomb in our lap” General Carl Spatz - predicted nukes would lead to “lasting peace” Russians also blessed with the A-bomb Americans developed more powerful H-bomb, Russians followed shortly 1950s- U.S. military concerned Russians had more nukes, feverishly built B-52 bombers Americans 600 nuke bombers Russians Americans 800 ICBMs Russians Americans – 4200 nukes Russians

30 All the other dots represent firepower of world’s nuclear weapons by 1981 Center dot represents total firepower of all bombs dropped during WWII including Nagasaki and Hiroshima

31 Defending ourselves and others What can we do to interrupt these dilemma spirals? GRITOne strategy = GRIT (Graduated and Reciprocated Initiatives in Tension-reduction) –Publicly challenge the opponent to match your de- escalations. –Used successfully by Kennedy on Kruschev,and Gorbachev on Reagan.

32 3. Reproduction According to natural selection, the implicit goal is to get more stuff in order to further reproductive ends –(e.g., more kids, kids that survive longer) The outcome of this goal may be the root of all major problems facing us today “No technical solution can rescue us from the misery of overpopulation. Freedom to breed will bring ruin to all.” – Garrett Hardin

33 What is the biggest problem facing the world? Overpopulation Dwindling Natural Resources Economic Problems Political and Military Conflict SOCIAL DILEMMAS

34 Human population of world (Billions) 6 YEAR State of the World

35 Pop: 132 million

36 What can we do? 1.Recognize social dilemmas 2.Resist ineffective interventions (e.g., punitive deterrent, turn-other-cheek) 3.Education and population control 4.Change salient goals (esp. away from immediate satisfaction) 5.Put tradition in its place 6.Recognize there are no simple solutions


Download ppt "Game Rules Rule #1: –The number of objects left in the bowl at the end of every 10 seconds will double. (max: 14) Rule #2: –The object of the game is."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google