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Wake up to Vision 2010 By Arthur Goldstuck We stand at the dawn of a new era.

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Presentation on theme: "Wake up to Vision 2010 By Arthur Goldstuck We stand at the dawn of a new era."— Presentation transcript:


2 Wake up to Vision 2010 By Arthur Goldstuck

3 We stand at the dawn of a new era

4 Everything must change

5 How far do you want to go in 2010?

6 The Age of the Vuvuzela

7 But first, the perils of prediction The Gartner Hype Cycle 2002

8 What’s missing? Acceleration factors – e.g. market crashes and regulatory changes Retardation factors – e.g. regulatory Business orientation – e.g. real needs Needs orientation – e.g. real people Strategic orientation – e.g. differentiation What lies beyond the plateau?

9 Hype Cycle for Networking and Communications, 2004 On the Rise Universal Switch AM/FM/TV Datacasting Video Telephony Home Entertainment Power Line Broadband

10 At the Peak IPv6 XML Appliances Deep Packet Inspection Firewalls Telecom Expense Management Unified Communications UWB/802.15.3a/WiMedia WiMAX 802.16d VDSL Location-Aware Technology

11 Sliding Into the Trough Ethernet MANs Cable VoIP Network Outsourcing Soft Switches WAN Compression ASPs SIP (session initiation protocol Video Streaming 802.3af — Power Over Ethernet NG Satellite Unified Messaging Wi-Fi Hot Spots Bluetooth Peer-to- Peer

12 Climbing the Slope IP Telephony MPLS Services IPsec VPNs VoIP MPLS GPRS DWDM

13 Entering the Plateau ADSL/Cable Modem Managed Router Services Wi-Fi 802.11a/g Wi-Fi 802.11g

14 Off the Hype Cycle Wi-Fi 802.11b

15 And onto the bandwagon VOIP Skype SIP Software phones IP-phones Wi-IP-3G phones

16 But first, the connectivity and e-commerce environment

17 Internet users in SA Last year of 100% growth: 1997 2000: 2 416 000 (32%) 2001: 2 886 000 (20%) 2002: 3 098 000 (7%) 2003: 3 283 000 (6%) 2004: 3.5m (6%)?

18 Online retail in SA 2000: R82-million 2001: R162-million –(last year of 100% growth) 2002: R252-million (55%) 2003: approx. R350m (40%) Forecast for 2004: R470m (33%)?

19 Comparisons are deceptive Internet users with 5 years experience: 2001: 354 700 (78% growth) 2002: 696 620 (96% growth) 2003: 1 266 235 (81% growth) 2004: 1 820 000 (44% growth)

20 Online bank accounts in SA 2002: 815 000 2003: 1 060 000 (28%) 2004: 1 400 000 (32%) Growth rate still upward Full online user base is target market Online bankers can become retail target

21 Segmentation is the key 3.28m with Internet access 1.2m with 5 years’ experience 1.04m online bank accounts Estimate: 800 000 online banking clients Of these, half only access statements 400 000 people conduct transactions

22 The Shopping Gap 400 000 conducting transactions within a walled, secure, guaranteed, policed and audited environment Best case scenario: 200 000 venture out In 2010, 3.6-4m will have 5 years experience 3-million online banking customers 2-million people conduct transactions 1-million people shopping online

23 Acceleration factors Smart cards in 2010: –25-million SIM –20-million Telco prepaid –20-million EMV (credit and debit) –30-million HANIS –6-million Pension Total: 100-million+ Smart cards in circulation

24 Acceleration factors Connectivity 2005-2007: –The emergence of the Voice Service Provider (VSP) –Internet connectivity gets third pillar E-mail Banking Voice

25 The consequence by 2009 Growth accelerates Experience curve flattens Market explodes Bubble returns Fingers burn The sooner we get over it, the sooner we can make this whole thing work

26 In 2010, visitors to SA will see… Beautiful roads system World class hotels Superb stadiums A platform to present SA to the world –but Protest marches over Gautrain prices Informal settlers demanding delivery Vigilante groups targeting Vuvuzelas Campaign for free telephony –and…

27 Connectivity a given Wi-fi everywhere VOIP built into all connectivity Virtual Telcos competing for attention Internet cafes will be VSPs The secret will lie in adding value, applications and utility and in negotiating with the Digital Chasm Action Committee »and then …

28 Universal Communications Service Pick up FlashTalk, your free flash drive at the airport, soft phone installed Plug it into your IP phone Or the nearest Smart terminal Swipe your Smart Card You can now use it at any VSP in SA Voice, mail, video-messages, transactions A world in the palm of your hand

29 Hi-tech or ooh-tech? Don’t get hooked on the technology Think public Think business Think strategy Think reality

30 The Race is not always to the swift

31 You’ve got 5 years … Contact Arthur Goldstuck (011) 7827003 World Wide Worx web site

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