Presentation on theme: "Wake up to Vision 2010 By Arthur Goldstuck We stand at the dawn of a new era."— Presentation transcript:
Wake up to Vision 2010 By Arthur Goldstuck
We stand at the dawn of a new era
Everything must change
How far do you want to go in 2010?
The Age of the Vuvuzela
But first, the perils of prediction The Gartner Hype Cycle 2002
What’s missing? Acceleration factors – e.g. market crashes and regulatory changes Retardation factors – e.g. regulatory Business orientation – e.g. real needs Needs orientation – e.g. real people Strategic orientation – e.g. differentiation What lies beyond the plateau?
Hype Cycle for Networking and Communications, 2004 On the Rise Universal Switch AM/FM/TV Datacasting Video Telephony Home Entertainment Power Line Broadband
At the Peak IPv6 XML Appliances Deep Packet Inspection Firewalls Telecom Expense Management Unified Communications UWB/ a/WiMedia WiMAX d VDSL Location-Aware Technology
Sliding Into the Trough Ethernet MANs Cable VoIP Network Outsourcing Soft Switches WAN Compression ASPs SIP (session initiation protocol Video Streaming 802.3af — Power Over Ethernet NG Satellite Unified Messaging Wi-Fi Hot Spots Bluetooth Peer-to- Peer
Climbing the Slope IP Telephony MPLS Services IPsec VPNs VoIP MPLS GPRS DWDM
Entering the Plateau ADSL/Cable Modem Managed Router Services Wi-Fi a/g Wi-Fi g
Off the Hype Cycle Wi-Fi b
And onto the bandwagon VOIP Skype SIP Software phones IP-phones Wi-IP-3G phones
But first, the connectivity and e-commerce environment
Internet users in SA Last year of 100% growth: : (32%) 2001: (20%) 2002: (7%) 2003: (6%) 2004: 3.5m (6%)?
Online retail in SA 2000: R82-million 2001: R162-million –(last year of 100% growth) 2002: R252-million (55%) 2003: approx. R350m (40%) Forecast for 2004: R470m (33%)?
Comparisons are deceptive Internet users with 5 years experience: 2001: (78% growth) 2002: (96% growth) 2003: (81% growth) 2004: (44% growth)
Online bank accounts in SA 2002: : (28%) 2004: (32%) Growth rate still upward Full online user base is target market Online bankers can become retail target
Segmentation is the key 3.28m with Internet access 1.2m with 5 years’ experience 1.04m online bank accounts Estimate: online banking clients Of these, half only access statements people conduct transactions
The Shopping Gap conducting transactions within a walled, secure, guaranteed, policed and audited environment Best case scenario: venture out In 2010, 3.6-4m will have 5 years experience 3-million online banking customers 2-million people conduct transactions 1-million people shopping online
Acceleration factors Smart cards in 2010: –25-million SIM –20-million Telco prepaid –20-million EMV (credit and debit) –30-million HANIS –6-million Pension Total: 100-million+ Smart cards in circulation
Acceleration factors Connectivity : –The emergence of the Voice Service Provider (VSP) –Internet connectivity gets third pillar Banking Voice
The consequence by 2009 Growth accelerates Experience curve flattens Market explodes Bubble returns Fingers burn The sooner we get over it, the sooner we can make this whole thing work
In 2010, visitors to SA will see… Beautiful roads system World class hotels Superb stadiums A platform to present SA to the world –but Protest marches over Gautrain prices Informal settlers demanding delivery Vigilante groups targeting Vuvuzelas Campaign for free telephony –and…
Connectivity a given Wi-fi everywhere VOIP built into all connectivity Virtual Telcos competing for attention Internet cafes will be VSPs The secret will lie in adding value, applications and utility and in negotiating with the Digital Chasm Action Committee »and then …
Universal Communications Service Pick up FlashTalk, your free flash drive at the airport, soft phone installed Plug it into your IP phone Or the nearest Smart terminal Swipe your Smart Card You can now use it at any VSP in SA Voice, mail, video-messages, transactions A world in the palm of your hand
Hi-tech or ooh-tech? Don’t get hooked on the technology Think public Think business Think strategy Think reality
The Race is not always to the swift
You’ve got 5 years … Contact Arthur Goldstuck (011) World Wide Worx web site