But first, the perils of prediction The Gartner Hype Cycle 2002
What’s missing? Acceleration factors – e.g. market crashes and regulatory changes Retardation factors – e.g. regulatory Business orientation – e.g. real needs Needs orientation – e.g. real people Strategic orientation – e.g. differentiation What lies beyond the plateau?
Hype Cycle for Networking and Communications, 2004 On the Rise Universal Switch AM/FM/TV Datacasting Video Telephony Home Entertainment Power Line Broadband
At the Peak IPv6 XML Appliances Deep Packet Inspection Firewalls Telecom Expense Management Unified Communications UWB/802.15.3a/WiMedia WiMAX 802.16d VDSL Location-Aware Technology
Sliding Into the Trough Ethernet MANs Cable VoIP Network Outsourcing Soft Switches WAN Compression ASPs SIP (session initiation protocol Video Streaming 802.3af — Power Over Ethernet NG Satellite Unified Messaging Wi-Fi Hot Spots Bluetooth Peer-to- Peer
Climbing the Slope IP Telephony MPLS Services IPsec VPNs VoIP MPLS GPRS DWDM
And onto the bandwagon VOIP Skype SIP Software phones IP-phones Wi-IP-3G phones
But first, the connectivity and e-commerce environment
Internet users in SA Last year of 100% growth: 1997 2000: 2 416 000 (32%) 2001: 2 886 000 (20%) 2002: 3 098 000 (7%) 2003: 3 283 000 (6%) 2004: 3.5m (6%)?
Online retail in SA 2000: R82-million 2001: R162-million –(last year of 100% growth) 2002: R252-million (55%) 2003: approx. R350m (40%) Forecast for 2004: R470m (33%)?
Comparisons are deceptive Internet users with 5 years experience: 2001: 354 700 (78% growth) 2002: 696 620 (96% growth) 2003: 1 266 235 (81% growth) 2004: 1 820 000 (44% growth)
Online bank accounts in SA 2002: 815 000 2003: 1 060 000 (28%) 2004: 1 400 000 (32%) Growth rate still upward Full online user base is target market Online bankers can become retail target
Segmentation is the key 3.28m with Internet access 1.2m with 5 years’ experience 1.04m online bank accounts Estimate: 800 000 online banking clients Of these, half only access statements 400 000 people conduct transactions
The Shopping Gap 400 000 conducting transactions within a walled, secure, guaranteed, policed and audited environment Best case scenario: 200 000 venture out In 2010, 3.6-4m will have 5 years experience 3-million online banking customers 2-million people conduct transactions 1-million people shopping online
Acceleration factors Smart cards in 2010: –25-million SIM –20-million Telco prepaid –20-million EMV (credit and debit) –30-million HANIS –6-million Pension Total: 100-million+ Smart cards in circulation
Acceleration factors Connectivity 2005-2007: –The emergence of the Voice Service Provider (VSP) –Internet connectivity gets third pillar E-mail Banking Voice
The consequence by 2009 Growth accelerates Experience curve flattens Market explodes Bubble returns Fingers burn The sooner we get over it, the sooner we can make this whole thing work
In 2010, visitors to SA will see… Beautiful roads system World class hotels Superb stadiums A platform to present SA to the world –but Protest marches over Gautrain prices Informal settlers demanding delivery Vigilante groups targeting Vuvuzelas Campaign for free telephony –and…
Connectivity a given Wi-fi everywhere VOIP built into all connectivity Virtual Telcos competing for attention Internet cafes will be VSPs The secret will lie in adding value, applications and utility and in negotiating with the Digital Chasm Action Committee »and then …
Universal Communications Service Pick up FlashTalk, your free flash drive at the airport, soft phone installed Plug it into your IP phone Or the nearest Smart terminal Swipe your Smart Card You can now use it at any VSP in SA Voice, mail, video-messages, transactions A world in the palm of your hand
Hi-tech or ooh-tech? Don’t get hooked on the technology Think public Think business Think strategy Think reality