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2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen1 Beyond Primary: Making the Case for Universal Secondary Education The American Academy of Arts & Sciences’ Project on Universal.

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Presentation on theme: "2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen1 Beyond Primary: Making the Case for Universal Secondary Education The American Academy of Arts & Sciences’ Project on Universal."— Presentation transcript:

1 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen1 Beyond Primary: Making the Case for Universal Secondary Education The American Academy of Arts & Sciences’ Project on Universal Basic & Secondary Education (UBASE) Joel E. Cohen Rockefeller & Columbia Universities 2007-12-18

2 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen2 Population structures by age & sex, more & less developed regions, 2005 Less developed regions, 5.3 billion More developed regions, 1.2 billion MaleFemaleMaleFemale Age United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003. Chen & Ravaillon, WPS 3341 World Bank 2004, estimates for year 2001. 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 ~53% live on <$2/day. ~0% live on <$2/day.

3 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen3 2006worldrichpoor population (billion) GNP PPP/person $9,190$27,790$4,950 % with <$2 / day 42%0%53% % increase/year 1.2%0.1%1.5% %15-59 HIV/AIDS 1.0%0.5%1.2% infant mortality rate 0.0520.0060.057 children/woman life expectancy (y) 677765 % urban 48%77%41% people/km 2 492464

4 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen4 Proposed panaceas Bigger pie increase productive capacity Fewer forks slow population growth through voluntary reductions in fertility reduce unwanted material by-products of consumption & production Better manners reduce violence, corruption, inequities, barriers to efficiency Cohen, How Many People Can the Earth Support? 1995 Educating all children well for 10-12 years could support all 3 approaches.

5 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen5 Project on Universal Basic & Secondary Education (UBASE) American Academy of Arts & Sciences Leslie Berlowitz Joel E. Cohen & David E. Bloom, Co-Directors 1998-2007, phase I Martin B. Malin, Staff Director

6 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen6 Aims of UBASE project What would the world be like if all children had 10-12 years of high-quality education? (not just primary school) What would it take to achieve such a world by 2050 or sooner?

7 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen7 Why is education important? Gustavo Bell Lemus. Vice-President & Defense Minister of Colombia (1998-2002), David E. Bloom, Harvard, & Patricia Craig, IBM Latin America Conventional answers neglect: Population (fertility, health, child survival) Environment: capacity to cope with change Conventional answers:

8 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen8 Why is universal secondary education important? Economic: productivity, new technology, earnings Source of new teachers for countries with rapidly expanding access to primary schools Opportunity & incentive for students who complete primary school Demographic impacts: reduced fertility, improved survival of children

9 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen9 World population in 2050 depends on what we do from now to then. 11.7 const. 10.6 high 9.1 med. 7.7 low billion. UN, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision One child difference per woman means ~3 billion more or fewer people by 2050. Almost all increase will be in cities of developing countries.

10 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen10 Women who complete secondary school average at least 1.5 fewer children than those who complete primary, with cultural differences. Murphy & Carr, Pop Ref Bureau 2007 Demographic & Health Surveys data < 1 o 1 o compl. 2 o completed

11 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen11 Children of better educated mothers die much less frequently before age 5. Hannum & Buchmann 2007

12 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen12 Number of children aged 5-14 more developed regions least developed regions less developed regions world Data: UN Pop.Div. 2006 Almost all increases in numbers of children will be in countries with least means to fund education.

13 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen13 How much would Universal Basic & Secondary Education cost? Answer: Melissa Binder Kabul, Afghanistan 2002

14 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen14 Costing universal education is hard. The cost per child who is NOT in school now probably differs from the cost per child ALREADY in school. more remote, poorer, minority, disadvantaged Access to schooling at present level of quality may not suffice to induce parents to send children. costs of quality improvements, food incentives Means of education may not be conventional school. information centers, homes, work & school

15 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen15 Cost is not the only problem.

16 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen16 Other obstacles to UBASE Economic disincentives. Families value more the time children spend working for income or handling chores so other household members can work for pay. Competing demands. Education competes for scarce national resources with roads, medical care, & defense. Lack of information. Internationally comparable, useful data on quality of 1 o & 2 o education are lacking. Political obstacles. Benefits of schooling accrue too slowly to benefit political incumbents. Violence disrupts schools. Cultural barriers. Discrimination inhibits schooling for girls, linguistic, religious, & ethnic minorities. Historical context. History of education in a country affects success of externally imposed solutions.

17 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen17 5 changes needed Improve effectiveness & economic efficiency of education : use data on what & how children learn; experiment with pedagogical alternatives; learn from countries that perform best, by region, with given funding. Commit to high-quality secondary education for all. Recognize diversity of educational systems in different countries, & adapt aid policies & educational assessments to local contexts. Discuss goals of education nationally, regionally, internationally. Give education more money & higher priority. Source: Cohen & Bloom 2005 Finance & Development

18 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen18 Universal, high-quality primary & secondary education is achievable by 2050. Educating all children well is a worthwhile, affordable, & achievable strategy to develop people who can cope with problems foreseen & unforeseen.

19 2007-3-27Joel E. Cohen19 Thank you! School in Burkina Faso

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