1. Solar flare waiting time distribution (WTD) First steps Oscar Olmedo

2. Outline Flare waiting distributions  What does it model?  Power law distribution Sympathetic Flaring

3. Flares Boffetta (1999) “Self-Organized Criticality or Turbulence?”  Lu and Hamilton(1991) Magnetic field evolves in a Self organized critical state so flares are an avalanche process.  Or Flares arises from turbulent process. Turbulence shows time intermittency I.e. dissipative events are not uniform but occur in bursts.  Shell model of MHD turbulence correctly reproduce the power law distribution

4. Flares Wheatland (2000)”Origin of the solar flare WTD”  Shows Power law originates from an exponential distribution of flaring rates. These results support the avalanche model.

5. Distribution Boffetta (1999)  Power law Wheatland (2000)  Time between flares follows a time varying Poisson distribution.  Distribution of flaring rates is exponential

6. WTD (Wheatland) Wheatland (2000) Poisson model for flare waiting times. (Right) Flare rates as calculated with Bayesian blocks

7. Bayesian blocks Jeffrey Scargle “Studies in astronomical time series analysis. V. Bayesian blocks, a new method to analyze structure in photon counting data.(1998) Each block represent different Poisson rate

8. Power Law P=Ax -a a=2.1 Wheatland a=2.16 ±0.05 Boffetta a=2.4±0.1

9. Sympathetic flaring Pearce and Harrison (1990)  First to show sympathetic flaring Moon (2002)  Looked at more events