1. Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) COPC Site Update November 14, 2007 Captain John G. Kusters, USN Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center 7 Grace Hopper Ave Monterey, CA 93943 John.Kusters@navy.mil (831) 656-4327

2. Operational Models and ApplicationsOperational Models and Applications Information AssuranceInformation Assurance Automation InitiativesAutomation Initiatives Computer SystemsComputer Systems Satellite ProductsSatellite Products NPOESSNPOESS MILCONMILCON SummarySummary Outline

3. NOGAPS Aerosol Modeling Mesoscale Models Ensemble Models Ocean Models Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Optimum Track Ship Routing Automated High Seas / Wind Warnings Ballistic Wind Computations Electro-Optical Forecasts Aircraft Routing Ocean Acoustic Forecasting Long-Range Planning Ice Forecasts Target Weapon Systems Visibility/Dust Forecasts Search and Rescue Models and Applications

4. Operational Models World-class operational and information-assured models are critical to our Nation’s defense –At core of Fleet Numerical reachback/automation efforts Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) –Premier global model for maritime environment Tailored for Navy/DOD missions Drives Navy ocean models –Supports the Ensemble Forecast System (EFS) Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) –Regional model for high-resolution support to Naval operations –Coupled with littoral ocean models –Re-locatable in minutes for on-demand operations support –Classification levels up to TS/SCI

5. Direct Feedback Connection with Fleet Users –Fleet Numerical provides enhanced model verification plots –Fleet users provide objective feedback Model and/or post-processing adjustments Rigorous but rapid Configuration Management process Long-term model improvements based on Fleet needs Continuous model improvement adds skill to the critical 72 – 120 hour period (resource protection, sortie decisions) Meets weekly “Team Monterey” effort –Collocation with Naval Research Lab –Rapid and successful transition of R&D  Ops –Naval Postgraduate School Collaboration Continuous Model Improvement Process Operational Models Improvement Process

6. Model Upgrades Last 6 months NOGAPS/NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR –AVHRR cloud-track polar winds (20071114) –Tuning variational analysis scale factors (20071002). Improved short term tropical forecast performance –NAVDAS-AR (4DVAR) running in NRL alpha utilizing CRTM and METOP AMSU radiances (20070901) –NAVDAS - CRTM installed under FNMOC CM –NOGAPS - Stopped reading AFWA snow fields and reverted to model snow due to overestimation (2007062212). –NAVDAS - Assimilating 3-hourly feature track wind files from UW CIMSS for Meteosat-9. It was previously 6-hourly (April) –NAVDAS - EUMETSAT Meteosat-9 replaced Meteosat-8 atmospheric motion vector (AMV) winds (20070411)

7. Model Upgrades Last 6 months COAMPS –All COAMPS areas converted from MVOI to NAVDAS-3DVAR –Running COAMPS areas operationally on IBM AIX to take load off of SGI systems (20071017) –COAMPS verification graphics package promoted to FNMOC OPS (20070804) –Significant COAMPS update to improve height bias, stratus prediction, and tropical cyclone intensity (20070801). Surface fluxes were increased thus impacting NCOM during VS-07. –METOP-A ATOVS temperature retrievals assimilated by COAMPS/NAVDAS (20070808) –COAMPS-OS operational in the SCIF on AMS2 Origin 3800 hardware (200706) –COAMPS Europe resolution change from 81/27 to 54/18 km (20070516) –Completed COAMPS SWA dust source file updates and added capability for dust forecasts to WPAC area (20070522)

8. NAVDAS-AR Navy Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System –Accelerated Representer 4D-VAR data assimilation system Basis for future fully interactive data assimilation/forecast system supporting adaptive observing Computationally efficient Accelerated Representer numerical solution The means by which NOGAPS and COAMPS assimilate data in the NPOESS era

9. Model Upgrades Next 6 Months NOGAPS/NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR –Assimilate Korean AMDAR winds when quality improvements made (Q1FY08) –FNMOC Beta NAVDAS-AR (Q1FY08) –COSMIC/GPS data assimilation (Q2FY08) –Assimilate AIRS radiances (Q2FY08) –FNMOC Beta on new A2 Linux cluster (Q3FY08) –FNMOC Ops on new A2 Linux cluster (Q3FY08) COAMPS –COAMPS-OS (NAVDAS, classified obs, RUC) (Q2FY08) –COAMPS-OS (coupled NCOM, WW3, SWAN) upgrade (Q3FY08) –COAMPS-OS merges with AMS COAMPS and becomes COAMPS on A2-0 (Q4FY08)

10. Booze-Allen-Hamilton contracted to facilitate transition of ODAA to Naval Network Warfare Command (NNWC) –ATO in progress including robust Cross Domain Solution Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) Enhanced Compliance Review –Annual inspection to evaluate classified network (SIPR), unclassified network (NIPR) and traditional security posture –Over 99% IAVM compliant on evaluated items High Performance Computing Modernization Officer (HPCMO) Technical and Administrative Reviews –Annual inspection to evaluate HPCMO HPC connections to the network Information Assurance (IA) Environment

11. Automation Initiatives AOTSR CAAPS EVIS

12. Ship routing has traditionally been a labor intensive process that requires forecasters to examine each ship route and corresponding model/forecast information Significant aspects of maritime routing to optimize heavy weather avoidance can be automated –If 70% of oceans/skies are calm, those forecasts are automatically transmitted –As operating thresholds are approached, ship routes are flagged for forecaster review –Builds on progress automating high winds/seas warnings for the Pacific and Indian Ocean, which have increasing forecaster efficiency by as much as 90% Existing resources are being leveraged to develop prototype of Automated OTSR that incorporates a fuel efficiency option –Ship Tracking and Routing System (STARS) automation and integration (Mr. Henry Chen) Automated Optimum Track Ship Routing (AOTSR)

13. Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System CAAPS is a relocatable, higher-resolution modeling application of COAMPS –User configurable areas and model resolutions –Linux cluster based Rapid area implementation permits repositioning in real-time (20 min) to support critical Naval operations Incorporates a Vapor-Liquid-Solid (VLS) Track Dispersion Model for WMD plume forecasts Multiple CAAPS areas currently running to support classified Naval and Joint operations CAAPS can provide on-demand support for a transiting Strike Group within 20 minutes CAAPS

14. Automates the manual process of generating impacts graphics (stoplight charts) Ties mission critical impacts to highest resolution models available (COAMPS/CAAPS) Thresholds custom based (XML) or tied to reference pubs (RP-1, IWEDA, JTS) Tailors impacts to mission area, geographic area, or theater requirements Allows for forecaster modification of results or threshold inputs Environmental Visualization (EVIS)

15. Primary Oceanographic Prediction System (POPS) –Principal operational platforms –Run models and applications at the UNCLAS, SECRET and TS/SCI Levels –Analysis and Modeling Subsystem (AMS) – Models –Applications Transactions and Observations Subsystem (ATOS) - SOA –A2 (AMS + ATOS) DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Program (HPCMP) funded Distributed Center System (DC3) Remote Operations at the HPCMP Major Shared Resource Center (MSRC) located at NAVO HPC Systems

16. *Ranked in the top 5-10% of supercomputer sites worldwide in terms of overall computing power (~30 TFLOPS peak processing power; i.e., ~30 trillion calculations per second) The FNMOC Computer systems are also linked directly to ~150 TB of disk space and ~160 TB of tape archive space. NAMETYPE#CPUsMEMORY (GB) PEAK SPEED (TFLOPS) OS AMS2SGI ORIGIN 3800128 0.2TRIX AMS3SGI ORIGIN 3900256 0.7TRIX AMS4SGI ORIGIN 3900256 0.7TRIX AMS5IBM p655+2885671.8AIX DC3IBM p655+2565121.9AIX ATOS2IBM 1350s/x440s/x345s4386452.2Linux CAAPSIBM e1350s1482720.7Linux A2-0Linux Networx Custom Supersystem 928180010.0Linux A2-1Linux Networx Custom Supersystem 1168117012.0Linux TOTAL37946637~30 HPC Portfolio

17. Origin 3000 12P TRIX amsfs2 FibreSwitch SIPRNET INTEL LINK DATMS-U DREN COM SERVERS APPLICATION SERVERS COM SERVERS Unclassified LAN Unclassified ATOS2 Classified ATOS2 Classified LAN Origin 3000 12P TRIX amsfs1 Single Level Unclass Single Level Class CXFSFilesystems(15 TB) Origin 3000 12P TRIX amsfs2 FibreSwitchFibreSwitch SIPRNET INTEL LINK DATMS-U DREN COM SERVERS APPLICATION SERVERS COM SERVERS -1 MLS SECRET UNCLASSIFIED

18. Technology advances open the opportunity for combining AMS and ATOS functionality by utilizing specialized computing –Emergence of Linux based HPC –Convergence of server and HPC processors Efficiency for reachback/on-demand modeling –Shared file system –Shared databases –Lower latency for on-demand model response Long term cost efficiency of Linux vice proprietary operating systems Cost savings by converging to a single operating system across FNMOC POPS Architecture Strategy

19. Specialized Computing Specialized computing which complements high-capacity systems by tuning hardware to applications will: –Enable transition to an easily scalable Linux environment –SE Linux to replace TRIX and Trusted Solaris Aligned with NSA investments for an MLS solution –Triple peak speed from 7.33 to ~ 29.56 TFLOPS –Triple memory from 2,645 to ~ 7,005 GB –Double number of CPUs from 2,026 to ~ 4,234 Combining this with a CAAPS or EVIS interface provides full capability that combines all layers of Battlespace On Demand: –Environmental data –Sensor/weapon performance –Commander/operator decision

20. A2 Computer Systems

21. A2-0 - Linux Networx Custom Supersystem –232 nodes with 2 Intel Xeon 5100-Series “Woodcrest” dual-core processors per node (928 core processors total) –1.86 TB memory (8 GB per node) –10 TFLOPS peak speed –35 TB disk space with 2 GB per second throughput –Double Data Rate Infiniband interconnect at 20 Gb per second –40 Gb per second connection to external Cisco network –4 Clearspeed floating point accelerator cards A2-1 - Linux Networx Custom Supersystem –146 nodes with 2 Intel Xeon 5300-Series “Clovertown” quad-core processors per node (1168 core processors total) –1.17 TB memory (8 GB per node) –12 TFLOPS peak speed –40 TB disk space with 2 GB per second throughput –Double Data Rate Infiniband interconnect at 20 Gb per second –40 Gb per second connection to external Cisco network –2 GRU floating point accelerator cards A2 Hardware Specifications

22. Satellite Products

23. Tools: – MET7 dust enhancement loops – SeaWIFS true color/dust enhancement – Feature tracked winds – MODIS dust enhancement Products: – Low clouds over snow – Low clouds at night – Convective cloud top heights – Fire and smoke enhancement Satellite Focus Webpage (SatFocus)

24. Satellite data fusion page Satellite data fusion page Multi-sensor images Multi-sensor images Operational Unclassified / Classified web Operational Unclassified / Classified web Available to the public Available to the public Tropical Cyclone Webpage (TCWeb)

25. Scatterometer Winds Need ASCAT from METOP via NESDIS ODAA Central site for scatterometer data distribution to the Navy Used for: - Assimilation into models - Near real-time displays for operational forecasters ERS and QuikScat Scatterometer, SSMI Wind and Rain, FNMOC Directional Ambiguity Removal

26. NPOESS Processing Architecture FNMOC IDPS (Standard RDRs, TDRs, SDRs, EDRs) FNMOC Satellite Processing System (Navy Unique EDRs) Data Quality / Monitoring Alternate Communications Interface (ACI) SAN Assimilation into NOGAPS and COAMPS via NAVDAS-AR METOC Portal/Web Services Products to Users via the Global Information Grid (GIG) NPOESS WAN

27. Cross Point ~ 700,000 obs Number of asynoptic observations will increase by a factor of ~10 in the NPOESS era (left panel below). FNMOC is well-positioned to fully exploit this data via NAVDAS-AR because: –4D-VAR technique is inherently well-suited for getting the most out of asynoptic data –NAVDAS-AR processing scales with model grid resolution, but is relatively insensitive to the number of observations assimilated (right panel below). Number of asynoptic observations will increase by a factor of ~10 in the NPOESS era (left panel below). FNMOC is well-positioned to fully exploit this data via NAVDAS-AR because: –4D-VAR technique is inherently well-suited for getting the most out of asynoptic data –NAVDAS-AR processing scales with model grid resolution, but is relatively insensitive to the number of observations assimilated (right panel below). NPOESS and NAVDAS-AR

28. $7.3M project with groundbreaking planned for July 2007 and completion by June 2008 NPOESS IDPS - Additional Computer Room SCIF improvements / enhancements Watch Floor modernization New Operational Briefing Area adjacent to Watch Floor 9400 sq. ft. - new construction 4800 sq. ft. - rehabilitation of existing spaces MILCON

29. Fleet Numerical is an operational command, with direct support relationships and connectivity to Fleet and Joint Forces Fleet Numerical is continually improving its core Numerical Modeling Capability and provides the only DoD Information-Assured Global Atmospheric Model “Team Monterey” is a unique partnership that focuses expertise to provide operational support like nowhere else Summary “Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety And Information Superiority”

30. Questions?

31. FNMOC BACKUPS

32. Tropical 200/850 Wind Mean RMSVE (day 3) OCTOBER 2007

33. WPAC (Jan-Sep 2007)

34. NOGAPS TC Track Performance West Pacific 2007 NOGAPS track error beats the NOGAPS 2006 at days 3-5. However, 2007 sample size much smaller (less statistical significance) NOGAPSGFDN NCEP GFS UK MET JTWC Forecast Consensus 2006 Models Improvement 2007