Presentation on theme: "The Academy for Advanced Leadership and Development www.chairacademy.com."— Presentation transcript:
The Academy for Advanced Leadership and Development www.chairacademy.com
From the Balcony Tracking Trends Culture Community Education Technology Workforce Making Sense in the Fog — Crafting a Vision Road Ahead
“If we open a quarrel between past and present, we shall find that we have lost the future.” Winston Churchill Certainty - Past Probability - Present Possibility - Future
Category & % of Income Spent On by Era 1790 English Laborer 2005 Average Worker, (Developed) Food/Drink75%14% Clothing10%4% Housing6%20% Household9%16% Transport18% Health Care6% Entertainment5% Education2% Insurance/ Pension 11% Other4% Source: Rational Optimist, Matt Ridley, 2010
What is a Megatrend? Megatrends are global, sustained, and macro economic forces of development that impact business, the economy, society, cultures, and personal lives thereby defining our future world and its increasing pace of change.
PredictionMegatrends 1980 To 2000Megatrends 2010 to 2020 SocietyIndustrialInformationDigitalVirtual TechnologyForced TechHi tech/TouchRegional/MicroGlobal/Nano EconomyNationalWorldHaves/NotsNots Have PlanningLong TermShort TermShortMicro ControlCentralizationDecentralizedCommunityGlobal CommunityInstitutionalSelf HelpCulturalEconomic CommandHierarchyNetworkSocial TrendMicro Robot ChoiceEither/orMultipleReligious FervorSecular Key Sources: Megatrends, John Naisbett, 1982 Megatrends 2010, Patricia Aburdene, 2005
Global +275% EUR/RUS -36% Africa +122% Lat Am/CAR +166% Mid East +500% US/North Am 0% Major shifts in population from developed to developing regions of the world. As the world grows together, several things are happening that warrant attention.
IssuePresentFuture Disappearing Languages 7,776 languages, only 5% exist online, one disappears every 14 days Chinese and English, languages of business and science Consolidated Currency 180 currencies tied to 193 countries Rupee, Ruble, Euro, Dollar, Yen, DEY (Dollar, Euro, & Yen), ??? WEBChina 590.6M Internet users English 565M Internet users Russia 59M Internet Users Growth (2000 – 2011) Russia 1,825.8% China 1,478.7% English 301% EducationIntuition Specific Certificates/Degrees Regionally/Provincially Accredited High Cost/High Aid Directed Study Global Industry Credential Nationally/Globally Certified Competitively Priced Self Directed/Industry Normed
PeriodTrendImpact 1940s/ 50s Post WWII Veterans Benefit Bill Tuition assistance fuels middle class surge in enrollment in college, mostly white male vets 1960sBaby Boomers, Civil Rights, Women at Work Massification of education, shift in demographics 1970sCold War, Matriculation, Infusion of Fed Funds at R1 Universities 1966-76: Up from 111K to 391K, 2 Year Degree 1950-73: Up from 6K to 34K PhD 1980sSocialization of educationUS news ratings, Student success, Financial aid 1990sTechnologyStress on infrastructure, Explosion in tech fees 2000Online, HybridGrowing questions about teaching-learning model 2010Rising cost, Reduced funding, MOOCs Rapid rise in tuition and student debt; search for a more affordable model of higher education
US TrendsCanadian Trends Pay for Performance: competency-based education. New Normal: Students First — Institutions Last Education for the Economy: career focus. Minerva Project: Top Profs align globally to teach outside online — students reside in geographically remote study pods. Access and Affordability: limit aid, reduce student debt. Big Research Universities Struggle: starving for cash, shifting financial priorities/allocation of resources. Big Data: privacy concerns, learning value, assessment. Cultural Determinants of Data Acquisition Costs: Can’t compel students to provide data (race, ethnicity, sexual orientation). Quality Over Quantity: Plato’s Academy vs Lord of the Flies Think Big: address capacity issues at the lowest practical level of cost per student.
Take 15 and list one or two trends List Your Trend Indicate Impact on Education Think Smaller than Global Warming and/or Peak Oil. What trends can you identify regionally that might come to pass in the next 20-30 years? Trends may be economic, policy oriented, market related, facility, demographic, etc. Make good use of a facilitator, time keeper, and recorder/reporter. Report Results.
DateHeadlineTheme 09/01/2013 Texas’ Colleges are Banking on Student Earnings Reward/punish colleges that produce grads who don’t make a certain wage level 09/20/2013 In Admissions, Old Playbook Is Being Revised Private college falls 150 deposits short in frosh class of 550 — now what? 09/27/2013 Florida Colleges Make Plans for Students to Opt Out of Remedial Work Drop rates too high, persistence rates too low, remedial work to blame? 10/04/2013 Get Your College Education Here, Prices Slashed The financial models at post- secondary schools are not sustainable. 10/18/2013 Earnings Gap Narrows, but Diploma Still Pays Value of HS diploma 1.0, two-year degree 1.13, four-year 1.65 11/29/2013 Spotlight on Campus Responses to Rape Puts College Presidents in a Bind Increasing percentage of college students are female, campus security is poor. 12/20/2013 Despite Push, College Completion Rates Haven’t Budged Part-time students less likely to graduate, only 43% graduate from starting institution.
IssueWasIsWill Be Institutional Funding State SupportedState AssistedCompetitive, Self Sufficient TuitionFamily Fortune/VetBorrowedPre Paid/Funded InstructionDirectedParticipatoryOn Demand DeliveryFace to FaceFace / OnlineOn Demand
Key questions: How do we make use of trends we identify? How do we manage the delta between extreme points of view? How do we balance negative and positive views of the future? Whose job is it to actually develop a vision?
Choose the Scope Vision fits YOUR role Fits in your sphere of influence. Find the Right Balance Boldness and Exploration Risk and Reward Known and Unknown Trust the Process Multiple Perspectives Not Linear Recognize Milestones The Work of Leaders “The first ingredient of leadership is a guiding vision....Unless you know where you’re going, and why, you cannot possibly get there.” Warren Bennis
Case studies require us to analyze problem situations and reach our own conclusions concerning the outcome. Name the issue. Review the facts. WHO is the ultimate decider? List the key stakeholders. Determine what matters. Assess why it matters and to whom. Assess your relationship with key stakeholders. Make a recommendation.
Take 75 Minutes Form into teams. Review materials. Designate roles. Facilitator Time Keeper Reporter/Recorder Outline review process. Record key observations. Prepare summary report. Report recommendation.
What are the important issues at stake? What is your initial impression on how the master list should be reprioritized? What suggestions do you have for moving the process forward? What concerns or special requests do you have?
Leader’s are Expected to: Climb up on the Balcony Look Beyond the Nearby Horizon Identify the Adaptive Challenges Equip Self and Others for What is to Come Create a Sustainable Vision Take Measurable Risks Appreciate Yesterday, Enjoy Today, Plan for Tomorrow! “Tomorrow, you promise yourself, things will be different, yet, tomorrow is too often a repetition of today. And you disappoint yourself again and again.” ― James T. McCay