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After the Revolution you have to govern well* *F.Castro (possibly apocryphal)

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1 After the Revolution you have to govern well* *F.Castro (possibly apocryphal)

2 Structure of the talk Structured on the four components of EA and the three dimensions of sustainability (FAO) Structured on the four components of EA and the three dimensions of sustainability (FAO) Make a lot of generalizations (“avoid platitudes”)Make a lot of generalizations (“avoid platitudes”) Support many with examples, some with dataSupport many with examples, some with data Consistent themes that emerge: Consistent themes that emerge: We need to use what we do know betterWe need to use what we do know better Major failures have been due more to weak HUMAN ecology than weak MARINE ecologyMajor failures have been due more to weak HUMAN ecology than weak MARINE ecology Need to integrate life history theory and fisheries population dynamicsNeed to integrate life history theory and fisheries population dynamics More integration ACROSS dimensions, rather than more detail within ecological dimensionMore integration ACROSS dimensions, rather than more detail within ecological dimension

3 Source of title The “Revolution of the People” captures the situation today The “Revolution of the People” captures the situation today The “ecosystem approach” has “taken power”.The “ecosystem approach” has “taken power”. “The People” supported it for promise of “better life”“The People” supported it for promise of “better life” Now we have to DELIVER on some of our promisesNow we have to DELIVER on some of our promises Otherwise “the people” become nostalgic for the old government; at least its failings were knownOtherwise “the people” become nostalgic for the old government; at least its failings were known We need some clear benefits to balance the cases where we will disappoint. (there will be a few)We need some clear benefits to balance the cases where we will disappoint. (there will be a few)

4 Why should we claim victory in the revolution? EA in marine & fisheries policies since 1990s EA in marine & fisheries policies since 1990s Rio & Johannesburg (high level)Rio & Johannesburg (high level) CCAMLR (since 1980s!)CCAMLR (since 1980s!) UN resolution 61/106 and othersUN resolution 61/106 and others Annex to FAO Code of Conduct (& others)Annex to FAO Code of Conduct (& others) CBD Marine & Coastal Res IX/20 (& VII, VIII)CBD Marine & Coastal Res IX/20 (& VII, VIII) EU MSFD and revised Common Fisheries PolicyEU MSFD and revised Common Fisheries Policy Canada’s Oceans Act & Fish. Act renewal (draft)Canada’s Oceans Act & Fish. Act renewal (draft) Australia Sustainability ActAustralia Sustainability Act At least concepts in Magnusson-Stevens ReauthorisationAt least concepts in Magnusson-Stevens Reauthorisation

5 Why is this an awkward time? Policy changes in “big” steps Policy changes in “big” steps Science grows incrementallyScience grows incrementally SCIENCE POLICY “The EA Revolution” POLICY IS LIVING IN THE DARK AGES SCIENCE SOLD US OUT NOW? ~1985 FSA UNCLOS?

6 We may well be in over our heads

7 Activities as well as Attitudes have to adjust More research? – Sure, but not enough – Sure, but not enough Ask policy to move slower? We risk counter-revolution or another coup.We risk counter-revolution or another coup. There are still sceptics and also people claiming they have all the answers.There are still sceptics and also people claiming they have all the answers. SOLVE SOME PROBLEMS MAKE BETTER USE OF WHAT WE KNOW -MAKE BETTER USE OF WHAT WE KNOW - WORK ON THE PARTS THAT ARE FUNCTIONING MOST POORLYWORK ON THE PARTS THAT ARE FUNCTIONING MOST POORLY

8 FAO view of the EA FOUR COMPONENTS FOUR COMPONENTS 1.Take account of ALL main forcers on dynamics of harvested stocks 2.Industry is accountable for FULL footprint of the impacts of their activities 3.Governance should be inclusive & participatory 4.Management should be integrated across all users.

9 Environmental Forcing “Classic” fish population dynamics model Stock t+1 = Stock t + Recruits + Growth - NatMor - Fishing Growth, & Natural Mortality were = K Recruitment is function of SSB (Stock t-x ) Model dynamics of F, SSB and R (feedback) Reality – NONE are constant or just f(SSB) All affected directly by physics (west coast) All affected directly by biotic conditions (food webs) All have INDIRECT EFFECTS & INTERACTIONS FISHING INTERACTS WITH ALL THE TERMS

10 Science could get stuck here Why a risk of getting caught here? The problems are interesting The problems are interesting The problems are familiar The problems are familiar “Over-enthusiasm brings problems Make the question so complex we can’t solve it Make the question so complex we can’t solve it Make the question more complex than the information we have to discriminate right answers from wrong ones!! Make the question more complex than the information we have to discriminate right answers from wrong ones!! WHEN DOES EACH TERM REALLY MATTER?

11 When does each term matter? Recruitment In a well-managed fishery, how much should variance in R impact yield? Sustainable F rarely > twice Natural Mortality M = f(max age) New work from WGECO merging life history and fish population dynamics Z % sustainable = 100 – (100e -Zt ) [t from aging or von von Bertalanffy k and L inf ] For gadoids,recruits ~20% of yield, rockfish 3% For gadoids,recruits ~20% of yield, rockfish 3%

12 SUSTAINABLE BOUNDARY FROM LIFE HISTORY INVARIANTS SURVEY BASED NORTH SEA FISH COMMUNITY

13 POPULATION TRENDS DO CORRESPOND TO OVERFISHING INDEX

14 So when does envt forcing on Recruitment really matter? If Max Age > ~8 Recruitment VARIATION accommodated with: exploitation rate matched to productivity Effective MCS giving compliance and reliable information for assessments What if productivity CHANGES? That does matter. Can be managed with Biomass reference points faster than detecting changes in productivity (LATER)

15 When does each term matter? Growth Asymmetric consequences of unstable growth Asymmetric consequences of unstable growth Faster than recent average: unexpected modest drop in F (quota fisheries) –with more future yield availableFaster than recent average: unexpected modest drop in F (quota fisheries) –with more future yield available Slower: much larger spike in F, esp of older fish – possibly > > 25% and depleted biomass persistsSlower: much larger spike in F, esp of older fish – possibly > > 25% and depleted biomass persists Knowing pattern to look for should encourage “don’t count your fish before they grow”. Knowing pattern to look for should encourage “don’t count your fish before they grow”. Be particularly careful not to overestimate growth of large cohorts.Be particularly careful not to overestimate growth of large cohorts. Selective effects of fishing emerging as issue Selective effects of fishing emerging as issue

16 When does each term matter? Natural Mortality Carrying capacity effect (if real) – Biotic Driv. Top down control of system – Biotic Drivers Lots of food web modelling ….. Per capita Stress – Abiotic (+ biotic) Drivers Hardest change to detect (estimates of M confounded with estimates of F) Serious risk of overexploitation if missed How long a change persists impt to mgmt.

17 M is under-valued compared to R and G The short-term VARIANCE in M is usually not large nor crucial to management The short-term VARIANCE in M is usually not large nor crucial to management Species differences in M lawful (in several ways) Species differences in M lawful (in several ways) Size-based, **life-history based, othersSize-based, **life-history based, others Step-changes in M VERY important, (Canadian cod stocks & decline of productivity) Step-changes in M VERY important, (Canadian cod stocks & decline of productivity) Community changes also changes aggregate M Community changes also changes aggregate M THIS IS A PLACE WHERE MORE SCIENCE WOULD MATTER A LOT. THIS IS A PLACE WHERE MORE SCIENCE WOULD MATTER A LOT.

18 Newfoundland Cod - Different figures because different gears and different analysis methods MORATORIUM PERIOD

19 Southern Scotian Shelf cod Relative F Catch / Surv. Biom. Survey Z

20 Using what we know: Impact of environment on stock dynamics Growing vogue to put environmental term in one or more Population Dynamics equations. Growing vogue to put environmental term in one or more Population Dynamics equations. WRONG idea – envt. not a consistent factor WRONG idea – envt. not a consistent factor Consider: N/N = r (1 – N/K) When N is large, only terms that affect K matter When N is small, only terms that affect r matter DIFFERENT MECHANISM AT WORK IN STOCK-ENVT INTERACTIONS AT LARGE AND SMALL N SINGLE MODEL TERM FOR “ EFFECT ” IS SILLY. ANALYTICAL ALTERNATIVES EXIST.

21 And use what we already know For 14 Mgmt Strategy Evaluations in 2005: Ecosystem Consideration In Objectives: 0 Envt Factors in Harvest Control Rules: 1 Environmental Forcing Explicit In Operating Model: 3 Environment Effects Explicit in Robustness Testing: 1 Reference in 2005 WG Reports to guidance from SGPRISM (recr) or GROMAT (growth): 0 of 12 assessment reports Narrative discussion in 9 of 12

22 Accountability for full footprint Gear impacts on “habitat” (direct) Gear impacts on “habitat” (direct) Bycatches of other fish, invertebrates, seabirds, mammals, turtles, etc (direct) Bycatches of other fish, invertebrates, seabirds, mammals, turtles, etc (direct) Trophic impacts (direct & indirect) Trophic impacts (direct & indirect)

23 It’s Just Second Hand News ….. Exploitation rate of forage stocks (1980s) ICNAF & NAFO aggregate quota rule (1970) ICES WG ECO 1990 OSPAR IMPACT I and II – 1994,

24 Questions about footprint of activity Single factor question: What level of impact is unsustainable? Single factor question: What level of impact is unsustainable? Existing tools can be generalizedExisting tools can be generalized Data poor assessment methods (Bayesian, etc) helping provide even more progress,Data poor assessment methods (Bayesian, etc) helping provide even more progress, Cross-factor questions: Cross-factor questions: How do we calibrate sustainability of impacts across features? MUCH earlier stage of work.How do we calibrate sustainability of impacts across features? MUCH earlier stage of work. How do we choose equitable degree of risk aversion across ecosystems components (and interest groups)? (visit later)How do we choose equitable degree of risk aversion across ecosystems components (and interest groups)? (visit later)

25 HEALTHY CAUTIOUS CRITICAL HARVEST RATE BIOMASS LIMIT RP EN TH CONVENTIONAL FISHERIES MANAGEMENT REBUILDING ENDANGERED SPECIES TOOLS Risk Mgmt RP “CLASSICAL” THREE-STAGE PA MODEL MORATORIUM

26 “Within feature” challenge: What is sustainable impact Generalization of B and F framework Three stage model widespread for B & F Three stage model widespread for B & F 6 assumptions generalize to ANY pair of ecosystem State and Pressure indicators 6 assumptions generalize to ANY pair of ecosystem State and Pressure indicators Locating limit requires estimate of productivity OR “replace-ability” OR “ecosystem function served”. Locating limit requires estimate of productivity OR “replace-ability” OR “ecosystem function served”. Feasible in data-moderate situations Feasible in data-moderate situations

27 Assumptions of 3 stage model in fisheries 1. A state of the stock exists that is considered healthy, or within safe biological limits 2. When the index of stock status is in the “healthy” or “safe” zone, an exploitation rate exists that is sustainable in the long term. 3. A biologically based LIMIT exists, below which the stock is at unacceptable risk of “serious or irreversible harm”. 4. When the index of stock status <= the limit, exploitation is to be as close to zero as is possible to achieve 5. There is uncertainty about the position of the limit, the annual estimates of stock status, and inertia and uncertainty about the ability of management to reduce exploitation as the limit is approached. (PRECAUTIONARY Reference Points) 6. When the index of stock status < the precautionary reference point, exploitation is to be reduced.

28 Tasks to undertake for generalization of framework Position Limit RP on Biodiversity Axes Position Limit RP on Biodiversity Axes Limits are the anchor for all the frameworkLimits are the anchor for all the framework In Fisheries advice - from stock-recruit relationshipIn Fisheries advice - from stock-recruit relationship A - convex B - flat C – Linearly proportional Spawning stock biomass Recruitment

29 Questions to estimate reference point for ANY state/pressure mix Is there a slope at all? Is there a slope at all? Is the origin a reasonable starting point, or is there depensation? Is the origin a reasonable starting point, or is there depensation? Is there curvature beyond the starting point, and if so is it convex or concave? Is there curvature beyond the starting point, and if so is it convex or concave? Position of maximum rate of change in slope? Position of maximum rate of change in slope? THOSE ARE REASONABLE SCIENCE QUESTIONS. (Not easy but reasonable). WE CAN BUILD THIS FRAMEWORK

30 *

31 The “cross-factor” challenge How to bring consistent management of impacts to very different TYPES of impacts (EQUITY of governance) How to bring consistent management of impacts to very different TYPES of impacts (EQUITY of governance) Generalization of 3 stage model is PART of the solution Generalization of 3 stage model is PART of the solution WGECO 2009 discussion of what pressure level on different properties causes an EQUAL: WGECO 2009 discussion of what pressure level on different properties causes an EQUAL: Likelihood of percent perturbation? Likelihood of percent perturbation? Loss of ability to replace itself? Loss of ability to replace itself? Loss of ecosystem functionality Loss of ecosystem functionality Loss of ecosystem goods and services ? Loss of ecosystem goods and services ?

32 Risk aversion particular complication Battlefield of the eco-advocates vs incrementally business-as-usual. Battlefield of the eco-advocates vs incrementally business-as-usual. Most opportunity and greatest difficulties so far. Most opportunity and greatest difficulties so far. NOT data limitation problems – different interpretations of policy requirements NOT data limitation problems – different interpretations of policy requirements NAFO VME identification case history NAFO VME identification case history (Fish mgmt reference points later)(Fish mgmt reference points later)

33 NAFO VMEs Policy framework complete Policy framework complete UNGA 61/105 – avoid Serious Adverse Impacts to Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems – or state does NOT AUTHORIZE FISHERYUNGA 61/105 – avoid Serious Adverse Impacts to Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems – or state does NOT AUTHORIZE FISHERY FAO Technical Guidelines on Deep Sea Fisheries on the High Seas Criteria for SAI and VMEFAO Technical Guidelines on Deep Sea Fisheries on the High Seas Criteria for SAI and VME NAFO efforts 2007 (fall) to 2009 (spring) NAFO efforts 2007 (fall) to 2009 (spring) Science Working Group TO WG of Fisheries Managers and Scientists TO Council TO WGFMS TO Council again …Science Working Group TO WG of Fisheries Managers and Scientists TO Council TO WGFMS TO Council again …

34 SCIENTISTS WG - MAY 2008 Don’t want major Misses

35 MARCH 2009 Don’t want major False Alarms

36 Trophic relations

37 Trophic Impacts Lots of fun for science. This is what we are good at. However – Lots of fun for science. This is what we are good at. However – Management will (and should) not chase every trophic fluctuationManagement will (and should) not chase every trophic fluctuation “Consensus” that we cannot engineer ecosystems into pre-selected configurations.“Consensus” that we cannot engineer ecosystems into pre-selected configurations. Relevance is in selecting management strategy Relevance is in selecting management strategy FREQUENTLY done for PREY since ICNAF / CCAMLRFREQUENTLY done for PREY since ICNAF / CCAMLR RARELY done for PREDATORS re aggregate F for sufficient top down control on systemRARELY done for PREDATORS re aggregate F for sufficient top down control on system DIVISIVE when gets to “excess predators” (seals)DIVISIVE when gets to “excess predators” (seals)

38 Trophic Impacts - 2 Role of fisheries “trophic cascades” Role of fisheries “trophic cascades” Viewed in “Top-down / bottom up frameworks Viewed in “Top-down / bottom up frameworks Release from top predatorsRelease from top predators Depletion of prey base for system.Depletion of prey base for system. Can system recover if F is released?Can system recover if F is released? Models generally capable of exploring issues Models generally capable of exploring issues “Middle out” impacts may be special case “Middle out” impacts may be special case “Wasp-waist” systems not rare“Wasp-waist” systems not rare Envt & fishery impacts on “waist” stock commonEnvt & fishery impacts on “waist” stock common WHAT strategy is sustainable? (forage species work)WHAT strategy is sustainable? (forage species work)

39 Other issues with accountability for impacts Industry often much better than government at solving problems, if they are motivated to do so Industry often much better than government at solving problems, if they are motivated to do so BC Trawl fishery and Boccacio. Catch reduced 60% in 40 months given incentiveBC Trawl fishery and Boccacio. Catch reduced 60% in 40 months given incentive Effective economic tools / incentives don’t work when the benefits are ecosystem properties not in trade by the fishery! Effective economic tools / incentives don’t work when the benefits are ecosystem properties not in trade by the fishery!

40 INCLUSIVE GOVERANCE COME TOGETHER

41 INCLUSIVE GOVERNANCE Legitimized for fishing industry decades ago Legitimized for fishing industry decades ago Problems in EA are: Problems in EA are: How many more interest groups are “stakeholders”How many more interest groups are “stakeholders” Whose forum to use to reach the decisionWhose forum to use to reach the decision Necessary to re-engineer roles and processes Necessary to re-engineer roles and processes Core Concepts: Core Concepts: The Assessment of Assessment framework of “Credibility Legitimacy, Relevance”.The Assessment of Assessment framework of “Credibility Legitimacy, Relevance”. 3 Dimensions of Sustainability – Environmental, Economic AND Social3 Dimensions of Sustainability – Environmental, Economic AND Social

42 Credibility Legitimacy Relevance These are harder to achieve in EA More types of specialists pass judgement on credibility More types of specialists pass judgement on credibility More types of stakeholders pass judgement on legitimacy More types of stakeholders pass judgement on legitimacy More dimensions to a decision so more decision-makers looking for relevance More dimensions to a decision so more decision-makers looking for relevance LITTLE SERIOUS DISCUSSION ON THIS YET FAILURE ON ANY GIVE ADVICE LOW IMPACT

43 Dimensions of Sustainability NO POLICY MAKERS WANT TO MESS UP Ecologists risk averse on environmental dimension Ecologists risk averse on environmental dimension Users risk averse on economic & social Users risk averse on economic & social Governments especially risk averse on SOCIAL dimension (on-going test) Governments especially risk averse on SOCIAL dimension (on-going test) How does one have an informed dialogue with communities having different risk tolerances (IUCN decline criterion debate) How does one have an informed dialogue with communities having different risk tolerances (IUCN decline criterion debate)

44 Weights given to different indicator properties (Rochet & Rice 2005) Science, Management, Policy and User Community are seeking different things in an “informed decision”.

45 Signal Detection Theory framework Around since 1940 in psychometrics 2 x 2 matrix of reality ( +/-) & criterion (+/-) Hit (+/+) – Event is really happening and indicator says problem is present True Negative (-/-) – All is quiet in the world and indicator says all is well Miss (-/+) Problem is occurring, indicator says all clear False Alarm (+/-) All is well but the indicator says problem is present and management action needed. NO DECISION FRAMEWORK PERFECT – What is cost & tolerance of Miss vs False Alarm?

46 Science to support inclusiveness in governance Science to inform inclusive dialogue Retrospectively North Sea Fisheries advisory framework right > 2/3 of applications Retrospectively North Sea Fisheries advisory framework right > 2/3 of applications When advice is in error; more Misses than False Alarms (Piet & Rice 2005). When advice is in error; more Misses than False Alarms (Piet & Rice 2005). Assessments lag behind declines.Assessments lag behind declines. Rely on annual assessment cycle to correctRely on annual assessment cycle to correct If roles also have different tolerances for Misses vs False Alarms, then at least we know what the different error rates are for various options. If roles also have different tolerances for Misses vs False Alarms, then at least we know what the different error rates are for various options. (Rice & Legace 2007 for IUCN decline criterion)(Rice & Legace 2007 for IUCN decline criterion)

47 Governance challenge under EA Where and how to resolve risk tolerance differences? (See IM portion) Conflicting agency mandates Conflicting agency mandates Agencies with mandates to MANAGEAgencies with mandates to MANAGE Agencies with mandates to PROTECTAgencies with mandates to PROTECT At international, national, and sub-national levels At international, national, and sub-national levels COHERENCE OF THEIR POLICIES IS CENTRAL TO PROGRESS ON EACOHERENCE OF THEIR POLICIES IS CENTRAL TO PROGRESS ON EA Often seem on course to train-wreckOften seem on course to train-wreck

48 Are we making progress? MANY causes for pessimism NAFO example – slow at best NAFO example – slow at best IUCN & CBD – many fishery-hostile meetings under their aegis (IMCC); “eject Shell” initiative IUCN & CBD – many fishery-hostile meetings under their aegis (IMCC); “eject Shell” initiative IPBES vs Regular Process IPBES vs Regular Process Different timetables, different experts, distrustDifferent timetables, different experts, distrust Fish Mgmt and Biodiversity clients classify each other as “partisan threats” Fish Mgmt and Biodiversity clients classify each other as “partisan threats” No INSTITUTIONAL settings to explore these issues. No INSTITUTIONAL settings to explore these issues.

49 Some hints of hope VME (FAO) and EBSA (CBD) initiatives Slightly Different policy motivators Slightly Different policy motivators FAO UN 61/105; CBD WSSD to COPFAO UN 61/105; CBD WSSD to COP Both used same expert document as start Both used same expert document as start Each invited experts from other community to key meetings. Each invited experts from other community to key meetings. Regular calls and some coordination of short and longer-term planning. Regular calls and some coordination of short and longer-term planning. Are we seeing détente among the experts?

50 Commonality of FAO and CBD criteria MAY lead to cohernence FAO (VME): 1. Uniqueness / rarity 2. Functional significance of habitat 3. Fragility 4. Life history attributes of species 5. Structural Complexity CBD (EBSA) Uniqueness / rarity (1) Uniqueness / rarity (1) Special importance for life history stages (2, 4) Special importance for life history stages (2, 4) Fragility/slow recovery (3) Fragility/slow recovery (3) Biological productivity / diversity (2, 5) Biological productivity / diversity (2, 5) Special importance to EN/TH species (1) Special importance to EN/TH species (1) Naturalness Naturalness

51 INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT You can go your own way……

52 INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT Inescapable and Difficult Why Inescapable? Taking account of all forcers Taking account of all forcers Many pressures are effects of other activitiesMany pressures are effects of other activities Taking responsibility for all impacts Taking responsibility for all impacts Sustainability depends on other pressuresSustainability depends on other pressures Inclusive governance Inclusive governance Each agency wants to use its fora, even if they broaden participationEach agency wants to use its fora, even if they broaden participation Interest groups are “forum shopping”Interest groups are “forum shopping”

53 Why is it difficult? Allocation of allowable harvest among fleets often hardest part of fisheries management Allocation of allowable harvest among fleets often hardest part of fisheries management Now it is allocation of allowable impact among various industries; Now it is allocation of allowable impact among various industries; Some impacts yield no commercial benefits, so calibration of “equity” of sharing needs currencies developed as well Some impacts yield no commercial benefits, so calibration of “equity” of sharing needs currencies developed as well

54 Inner Bay of Fundy Salmon Listed under SARA; Recovery Plan mandatory Listed under SARA; Recovery Plan mandatory Section 73 – reverse burden of proof Section 73 – reverse burden of proof Activities only permitted if Minister is assured activity will not jeopardize survival or recoveryActivities only permitted if Minister is assured activity will not jeopardize survival or recovery Rpa - Human impacts must be reduced 80(?)%, esp on post-smolt stages Rpa - Human impacts must be reduced 80(?)%, esp on post-smolt stages Bycatch in wiers, hydroelectric, farming runoff, bycatch in angling, general water quality issuesBycatch in wiers, hydroelectric, farming runoff, bycatch in angling, general water quality issues Two new players as for share of “allowable impact” – large scale aquaculture and tidal power.Two new players as for share of “allowable impact” – large scale aquaculture and tidal power. 20 months and no decision on way forward.20 months and no decision on way forward.

55 High Seas MUCH harder All the problems see so far: Greater scientific uncertainty Greater scientific uncertainty Weaker data streams, fewer baselines, etcWeaker data streams, fewer baselines, etc The turf war between the agencies that manage and the agencies that protect The turf war between the agencies that manage and the agencies that protect Huge differences in risk tolerances Miss/FalseHuge differences in risk tolerances Miss/False More challenges to Mgnt/Control/Surv More challenges to Mgnt/Control/Surv Plus central governance only at level of UNGA DO WE NEED A NEW GOVERNANCE SYSTEM?

56 Healthy ecosystems and reduced biodiversity loss FishingOil & Gas Ship- ping Safety and security Other Common goals and objectives (ecological, economic, social) MSR Integrated Management mechanisms, tools, institutional cooperation etc Knowledge Global norms Mgt. standards incl EAF Incentives Compliance Monitoring Etc Integrated knowledge, common baseline assessments (MEQ), risk assessment, indicators etc, Existing and new legal and regulatory frameworks (e.g., UNCLOS, UNFA, others) After Ridgeway 2009

57 Healthy ecosystems and reduced biodiversity loss Fishing Oil & Gas Ship- ping Safety and security Other Common goals and objectives (ecological, economic, social) MSR Integrated Management mechanisms, tools, institutional cooperation etc High end “Uber-governance” Fishing Integrated knowledge, common baseline assessments (MEQ), risk assessment, indicators etc, Existing and new legal and regulatory frameworks (e.g., UNCLOS, UNFA, others) “Implementing Agreement”

58 Problems not solved through heavy IM governance structures If we have not taken that model within national jurisdictions, why outside? If we have not taken that model within national jurisdictions, why outside? Takes decision-making even further from those whose lives are affected Takes decision-making even further from those whose lives are affected “Crushing the columns” doesn’t address: “Crushing the columns” doesn’t address: Information quality & quantityInformation quality & quantity Differential risk tolerances for Misses / F.A.Differential risk tolerances for Misses / F.A. INTEGRATING DECISION OPTIONS ON THE 3 DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITYINTEGRATING DECISION OPTIONS ON THE 3 DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY

59 FULLY integrated assessments “ Integrated” used by everyone, but differently From physics to top predators (ecologists)From physics to top predators (ecologists) Across various industry sectors (few)Across various industry sectors (few) Environmental, Social, Economic (rare)Environmental, Social, Economic (rare) Fully integrated Assessments recommended by: External Ecosystem Task Team of NOAA External Ecosystem Task Team of NOAA Assessment of Assessments Assessment of Assessments Ambitious, but only way to make REAL progress

60 Why a necessary path In the end, the DECISION integrates across all the factors, so useful advice should too. Build on neutrality of assessment process : Build on neutrality of assessment process : For each option what are consequences on each dimension ***For each option what are consequences on each dimension *** For each option, what are roles for each sectorFor each option, what are roles for each sector If the process specifies the consequences and includes uncertainties in the options, can calculate Miss / False Alarm rate for options without having to resolve the different risk tolerancesIf the process specifies the consequences and includes uncertainties in the options, can calculate Miss / False Alarm rate for options without having to resolve the different risk tolerances

61 FULLY integrated assessments allow : Discussion of how to align social and economic incentives with desirable environmental outcomes Discussion of how to align social and economic incentives with desirable environmental outcomes Exploration of alternative allocations a step away from the decision table Exploration of alternative allocations a step away from the decision table Acknowledgement that there are no win- win-win options in sustainable use Acknowledgement that there are no win- win-win options in sustainable use Examining the difference between “optimal” (experts) and “just” (users) outcomes Examining the difference between “optimal” (experts) and “just” (users) outcomes

62 IEA Can Support Holistic implementation of Ecosystem Approach 1. IEA Identifies what factors are most crucial to ecosystem s & f / i & r (Cons. Objectives) 2. IEA Identifies what sectors create pressures on the key ecosystem factors 3. Then IM “fits” pressures within CO limits “Incremental approach” just adds ecosystem concerns to “business as usual” Can miss key ecosystem factors,Can miss key ecosystem factors, Reach impasse on aggregate pressuresReach impasse on aggregate pressures No forum for “integration”No forum for “integration”

63 Take home messages Taking account of environmental forcing: Good idea, but main failures have not been because we got the ecosystem effects badly wrong.Good idea, but main failures have not been because we got the ecosystem effects badly wrong. Accountability for full footprint of fishing Good idea but auditing and partitioning accountability is major challenge to scienceGood idea but auditing and partitioning accountability is major challenge to science In both cases not making full use of what we do know Better marriage between life history theory, community ecology, and fisheries, not more parameters in fisheries models.Better marriage between life history theory, community ecology, and fisheries, not more parameters in fisheries models.

64 Take home messages (2) Inclusive governance and integrated management Real progress comes from integrating assessments and advice across the three dimensions of sustainability.Real progress comes from integrating assessments and advice across the three dimensions of sustainability. Real partnerships between natural and social scientistsReal partnerships between natural and social scientists Failure to make rapid progress will mean counter-revolution to loss to even more extreme revolutionaries.Failure to make rapid progress will mean counter-revolution to loss to even more extreme revolutionaries.


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