Overview of Presentation Supply/Demand and the ‘New consumers’ Supply/Demand and the ‘New consumers’ Other Factors too: Other Factors too: - The US Dollar – outlook - Real Interest Rates – not rising … - The Commodity Cycle - lasts years … - Massive Reserves - Developmental demand - The Economic Cycle Portfolio Diversification With Commodities Portfolio Diversification With Commodities - Better Returns - Diversification benefits - Hedge Against Inflation - Scenario Analysis India Story India Story
Supply & Demand /New Customers
World Demand – New Consumers Aluminum: pounds per capita consumption Source – World Meta Bureau
World Demand – New Consumers Steels: pounds per capita consumption Source – World Meta Bureau
If supply cannot expand at the rate of intended demand, the price of commodities MUST rise in order to squeeze demand back to the available supply. In the true sense; a rising price is the market’s way of rationing demand. Accordingly, central banks run serious risks by tightening monetary policy in hopes of suppressing the rise in commodity prices. We could say…
Other Factors: the US Dollar The Dollar broke down in 2002 … Created Using Metastock
Other Factors: the US Dollar In fact, the gold price often turns with US$ … Created Using Metastock
Commodity Prices and US$ So does S&P commodity price index … USD Index S&P Commodity Index Created Using Metastock
The Outlook for the US Dollar The RMB and Asian currencies must rise! Source - IMF
When the dollar declines against the Asian currencies: Local demand picks up Local prices eventually start rising … But since Asian consumers are driving commodity prices, the dollar’s decline against Asian currencies is far more important for commodities than other factors such as the dollar’s relationship with say the Euro! 2010 Phenomenon: Gold & Euro: Sudden payment crisis in some EC countries (Greece/Portugal/Spain/Ireland) caused a loss of confidence in the Euro We could say…
Commodity Prices and Interest Rates … with the S&P Commodity Index …
News: 15th November 2010 Gold gained half a % on Monday, after falling three % in the previous session on talk of an imminent interest rate hike by China that triggered a broad commodities decline. Copper fell on Friday, receding from the previous session's record high to hit a one-week low on talk of an interest rate hike in top consumer China, but analysts said good fundamentals supported the metal longer-term. Oil prices slumped more than 3 % on Friday, retreating from a 25-month high, amid a broad commodities rout on fears that China may raise interest rates to brake its economy and concerns about euro zone debt.
When real interest rates (inflation-adjusted) decline, demand for goods and services generally responds positively This demand is reflected in the demand for raw material in general and key commodity prices specifically In fact, the data shows that both the Dollar and real interest rates are negatively correlated with commodity prices We could say …
The Commodity Cycle The shortest copper cycle lasted 16 years 50 day Moving Average COMEX Copper Prices from Jan Oct 2010 Tube Sheets Wires
The Gold Cycle The shortest gold cycle lasted for 10 years…
The Commodity Cycle The shortest gold cycle lasted for 10 years… 50 day Moving Average COMEX Gold Prices from Jan July2010
The Wheat Cycle The shortest wheat cycle lasted 16 years
The Commodity Cycle Subprime crisis Iraq War Gulf war NYMEX Crude Oil Prices from Jan July day Moving Average
Reserves Foreign Exchange Reserve (Sept 2010) CountryMn $ CountryMn $ China Singapore214,662 Japan Switzerland255,522 Euro system Germany Russia Algeria Saudi Arabia Thailand Republic of China France India Italy South Korea United States128,601 Hong Kong Brazil Total Sum of all Countries Source - IMF
Investment Demand in Commodities Commodity “asset class” room to grow!
The value of managed assets in the world is about $55 trillion … Estimates suggest that only $ billion of this is invested in commodities Assuming that the “commodity asset class” will grow to about 3% of all assets … There could be an 8-fold increase in commodity investments! Opportunities in Commodities Commodity “asset class” room to grow!
The Economic Cycle … and generally decline during/after recessions
The Economic Cycle
Goldman Sachs Index Recessionary phase
Agri commodity prices
Commodity Prices Source: IMF
The dollar has a major impact on commodity prices … So do real interest rates … The commodity cycle generally lasts for years The Commodity complex has become an “investment class” Recessions damage commodity prices Recovery pushes up prices Conclusion…
Commodity Delivers Better Returns … absolute and risk adjusted returns… The average historical risk premium of Commodity Futures has been about 5% per annum during the period from 1959 to 2010.
Commodity prices and prices for stock and bonds respond differently to changes in market and economic conditions. The difference in how they respond to global events and the timing to these responses can provides commodities with valuable benefits when combined with other financial assets. Diversification Benefits …when other disappoint, commodities stands!!! Source – DataStream
Diversification Benefits …the importance of negative correlation… Portfolio I Consider a position consisting of a USD 1,000,000 investment in S&P 500. The daily volatility for S&P 500 is 1.37% (2nd Jan, 2009 to 30th May, 2009). VaR for S&P 500 Since size of the position is USD 1 million, the standard deviation of daily changes in the value of the position is 1.37% of USD 1 million or USD The 1-day 99% VaR of a USD 1 million position in S&P is 2.33*13700 = USD 31921
Portfolio II Position consisting of a USD 1,000,000 investment in Gold. The daily volatility for Gold is 1.44% (2nd Jan, 2009 to 30th May, 2009) VaR for Gold Since size of the position is USD 1 million, the standard deviation of daily changes in the value of the position is 1.44% of USD 1 million or USD The 1-day 99% VaR of a USD 1 million position in S&P is 2.33*14400 = USD Diversification Benefits …the importance of negative correlation…
So if we combine these two Single-Asset Case portfolio and form a new Two-Asset Case portfolio the VaR for the portfolio should be??? Simple – Sum of the VaR for the two portfolio’s, Right??? Therefore VaR for this portfolio is USD USD = USD No !! Correlation gets involved here. If S&P 500 and gold were perfectly correlated (+1), the VaR for the portfolio would equal the VaR for the S&P 500 plus the VaR for the gold ( = 65473). Less than perfect correlation leads to some of the risk being “diversified”. IF Correlation between both the asset classes during the given time period is Diversification Benefits …the importance of negative correlation…
VaR for the portfolio The standard deviation of the change in the value of the portfolio consisting of both stocks over a one-day period is therefore SQRT (13700^ ^2 + (2*-0.71*13700*14400)) = USD The 1-day 99% VaR for the portfolio is therefore 2.33*10719 = USD The amount ( ) – = USD represents the benefits of diversification. IMPORTANTLY COMMODITY HAS HISTORICALLY PROVIDED DIVERSIFICATION DUE TO LOW OR NEGATIVE CORRELATION WITH OTHER ASSET CLASSES!!! Diversification Benefits …the importance of negative correlation…
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