1. PERUN - software demonstration - Martin Dubrovsky (dub@ufa.cas.cz) Mirek Trnka (mirek_trnka@yahoo.com

2. Introduction to this afternoon (several experiments will be made)

3. main window of PERUN

4. Window 2: Directories and lists

5. Window 3: Parameters of Met&Roll

6. Window 4: importing weather data

7. Seasonal analysis (AG-01) Meteo input: - observed data - 1 year - no forecast - no scenario

8. Seasonal analysis (AG-01) - graph 1

9. Multi-year analysis (AG-02) Meteo input: - observed data - 40 year - no forecast - no scenario

10. Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 1

11. Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 2

12. Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 3

13. Sensitivity analysis (AG-03): precipitation Meteo input: - observed data - 40 year - no forecast - no scenario

14. Seasonal analysis (AG-02) - graph 3

15. Sensitivity analysis (AG-03): soil Meteo input: - observed data - 40 year - no forecast - no scenario

16. Seasonal analysis (AG-03) - graph 3

17. Probabilistic seasonal forecast of crop yields (AG-04) sensitivity to the lead-time Meteo input: - observed till day0-1 - synthetic since day0 - 10 re-runs - no forecast - no scenario

18. Crop yield forecasting (AG-04) - graph 3

19. Weather forecast - type 1 * weather forecast METHOD = 1...averages.....std. deviation.. @JD-from JD-to TMAX TMIN PREC TMAX TMIN PREC 99121 99130 17 6 30 2 2 10 99131 99140 14 4 60 3 3 20 99141 99150 21 10 10 4 4 10 @

20. Weather forecast - type 2 * weather forecast METHOD = 3...averages.....std. deviation.. @JD-from JD-to TMAX TMIN PREC TMAX TMIN PREC 99121 99130 1 1 1.2 1 1 1 99131 99140 0 0 1.0 1 1 1 99141 99150 -1 -1 0.9 1 1 1 @

21. Climate change impacts on crop yields (AG-05.exp) Meteo input: - synthetic - scenario - 99 years - no forecast Makkink!!!

22. Climate change scenario @original file =WIE-A2H.sc MONTH DTR PRE RAD TMN TMP TMX VAP WND --- + * * + + + * * 0 0.341 -2.568 2.626 1.284 1.454 1.625 6.600 0.766 1 -0.054 8.354 -3.884 1.233 1.206 1.178 9.298 -0.335 2 0.101 3.694 -3.544 1.315 1.365 1.416 10.467 0.542 3 0.239 3.377 -0.458 0.902 1.022 1.141 6.012 0.582 4 0.100 6.025 1.216 1.080 1.130 1.180 6.175 0.620 5 0.128 2.539 2.726 1.230 1.294 1.358 6.932 0.152 6 0.308 -7.229 3.895 1.224 1.378 1.532 5.971 1.372 7 0.699 -13.576 3.812 1.524 1.874 2.223 6.308 2.994 8 1.164 -15.628 6.828 1.666 2.248 2.831 4.757 2.650 9 0.958 -9.463 7.242 1.516 1.995 2.474 4.673 0.439 10 0.174 1.774 1.424 1.292 1.379 1.466 8.211 -0.138 11 0.265 -2.996 -0.404 0.951 1.084 1.216 7.023 -0.835 12 0.010 7.344 -3.748 1.472 1.477 1.482 10.945 1.612

23. Climate change impacts - graph 3 (3 climates) x (2 ambient CO2) Now 350 Now 535 HadCM3 350 NCAR 350 HadCM3 535 NCAR 535

24. Multi-site analysis - 1 # multi-station analysis @idx soil rdmsol wav wght CZ01 CZ01.awc 132 15.6 56 CZ05 CZ05.awc 133 14.2 67 CZ06 CZ06.awc 127 13.4 70 CZ09 CZ09.awc 87 7.5 44 CZ13 CZ13.awc 111 9.5 181 CZ19 CZ19.awc 129 13.1 45 ***

25. Multi-site analysis - 2 # multi-station analysis @idx soil crop wea lat lon RDMsol WAV idsol weight c001 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB BTUR 49.16 16.70 132 15.6 0 714 c002 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CASL 49.85 15.67 132 15.6 0 252 c003 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CERV 49.78 17.54 132 15.6 0 0 c004 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CHEB 50.07 12.39 132 15.6 0 0 c005 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB CHUR 49.07 13.61 132 15.6 0 0 c006 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB DOKS 50.46 14.17 132 15.6 0 760 c007 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB DOMA 49.53 16.25 132 15.6 0 31 c008 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HAVL 49.61 15.58 132 15.6 0 0 c009 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HNEV 50.30 15.72 132 15.6 0 126 c010 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HOLE 49.32 17.57 132 15.6 0 137 c011 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HRAD 50.18 15.84 132 15.6 0 0 c012 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HUMP 49.55 15.55 132 15.6 0 0 c013 CZ01.awc WHhan2.CAB HUSI 49.04 13.99 132 15.6 0 0

26. PERUN - notes on installation ?. Delete C:\MADSOFT\PERUN directory 1. Open CD:\PERUN 2. Run “installPerun.bat” 3. find and run “c:\madsoft\perun\perun.exe” 4. Open experiment: AG-01.exp and START