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Tartan Forest Management Services LLC Craig Campbell Delphi Advisors LLC Tom Montzka Mike Huebschmann NW GIS User Group Conference – October 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "Tartan Forest Management Services LLC Craig Campbell Delphi Advisors LLC Tom Montzka Mike Huebschmann NW GIS User Group Conference – October 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Tartan Forest Management Services LLC Craig Campbell Delphi Advisors LLC Tom Montzka Mike Huebschmann NW GIS User Group Conference – October 2011

2  MS Forestry degrees in Operations, Management, Remote Sensing & Biometrics  Phd in Agricultural Economics  62 years of Industrial Forestry experience  18 years of Private Consulting experience  Forest Acquisition/Divestiture, Inventory, Planning, Analysis and GIS projects in the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Southeast, Gulf South and Canada

3  ArcGIS 10.0 Desktop Advanced, Spatial Analyst  Statistical Models RATS, Crystal Ball  Databases and Development Tools MS Office Professional, MS SQL Server  Inventory Models Forest Projection System (FPS) Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS)  LP Models FORPLAN, What’s Best, C-WHIZ

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6  TREE SPECIES – Flexible or Specific  TIMBER SIZE – Usually Limited  CHIPS – Clean or In-Woods  BIOMASS – Need Varies by Facility  VOLUME – Annual and/or Seasonal  QUALITY SPECIFIATIONS – Defect, Sweep, Length, Diameter, Moisture, Age  PRICING – Absolute and in What Units of Measure

7  STATE – Regulations  COUNTY – Regulations and Roading  OWNERSHIP – Objectives  COMPETITORS – Success Rate  COST DISTANCE – Transportation  ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE – Access and Cost  WATERSHED / RIPARIAN – Restricted Access  TERRAIN – Elevation, Slope and Aspect

8  STUMPAGE – Payment to the Timber Owner  EQUIPMENT – Terrain and Timber Value  LABOR COSTS – Cost per Unit Timber  FUEL COSTS – Dollars/Gallon Diesel  FUEL EFFICIENCY – Miles/Gallon Loaded  FUEL ADD-ONS – Adjustments per Ton/Mile  HAUL ADJUSTMENTS – Turns per Day, Back-Haul

9  MILL CAPACITY – Related to Cost and Efficiency  RECOVERY RATE – Unit Product per Unit Log/Fiber  SHIFT LOGIC – Shifts Actual or Imputed  PRODUCTION – Units Produced  PRICING – FOB Mill Prices per Unit  BY-PRODUCTS – Chemicals, Steam, Power, Residuals

10 HOW FAR CAN THE MILL AFFORD TO BUY FIBER BASED ON ITS PRODUCTS AND COST STRUCTURES?

11 Mill X removes 705 M $43.65 / ton

12 HOW MANY MILL COMPETITORS CAN ACCESS THE FIBER SUPPLY FOR ANY GIVEN MILL?

13 A WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF ALL COMPETITORS IN THE WOODBASKET MORE ACCRUATELY DEPICTS PRESSURE ON FIBER RESOURCES.

14 THIS BENEFITS MILL PROCUREMENT STRATEGY BY UNDERSTANDING WHERE AND TO WHAT EXTENT THEY HAVE A PRICING ADVANTAGE.

15  REVIEWING CAPITAL PROGRAMS  REVIEWING PROCUREMENT STRATEGY  REVIEWING LAND SALES & ACQUISTIONS  REVIEWING REALESTATE PROGRAMS  REVIEWING MILL SALES & ACQUISITIONS  UNDERSTANDING REGIONAL MARGINAL COSTS  LOBBYING FOR PUBLIC TIMBER SUPPLY  UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS FROM REGUALTION

16  GREATER DETAIL REQUIRED FOR FOREST INVENTORY, HARVESTING, TRANSPORTATION, MILL PRODUCTION, PRODUCT PRICES and MILL COST STRUCTURES.  CAPITAL BUDGETING AND PROJECT JUSTIFICATION  WOODSHED INVENTORY ANALYSIS  PROCUREMENT PLANS AND BUDGETS  HARVEST PLANS  SILVICULTURAL PLANS  LANDOWNER PROGRAMS

17  DATA, TIME and DOLLAR INTENSIVE  BROAD UNDERSTANDING OF - FOREST MANAGEMENT and PLANNING - FOREST INVENTORY and GROWTH & YIELD - HARVESTING SYSTEMS and TRANSPORT - SOLID WOOD and PAPER MILL PROCESSES - SOLID WOOD and PAPER PRODUCT MARKETS - GIS TOOLS and ANALYSIS - DATABASE MANAGEMENT - LP, RISK and HEURISTIC MODELING  PROJECT MANAGEMENT  GOOD CUSTOMER SERVICE /COMMUNICATION

18 THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME!

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