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#1 - Daily - Win Why: X Why: Entry price X Why: Stop loss X Why: Profit target X Outcome X Learnings X.

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Presentation on theme: "#1 - Daily - Win Why: X Why: Entry price X Why: Stop loss X Why: Profit target X Outcome X Learnings X."— Presentation transcript:

1 #1 - Daily - Win Why: X Why: Entry price X Why: Stop loss X Why: Profit target X Outcome X Learnings X

2 #1 - Daily - Entry Why: It was a sound piece of technical analysis.. Long term trend was up, with a short term trend downwards.. Meaning a good buying opportunity There was a good candle at the bottom which suggested the mood had changed There was a good fib line It was a gap down and begun to retrace upwards, so the intraday trade was taken The daily trend lines however could have been revised.. The red were the ones that I was working with at the time and the blue are my current revised ones.. What could have been done better? Got back into the trade after.. Keeping a closer eye on it.. As it was a sound piece of analysis Perhaps even a buy order above the day.. Perhaps buying intraday is not a good idea.. And if we are going to work daily candle sticks.. I need to let them develop

3 #1 - Daily - Entry Hourly chart adds weight to the need for patience.. There needed to be a break in the downward channel prior to putting in an order

4 #2 - Daily - Loss Why: Very similar to the trade #1.. There was a lot to play for, but the timing was a little out and there was no re-entry.. Difficult to gauge what would have been best here.. Perhaps a very wide stop… or just the bravery to re-enter the market.. Over the last two trades.. I would have increased the bank size by around 30%.. But still need to keep plugging away..


6 #3 - Daily - Win Why: Potenatially not a great trade.. It is taking John’s techniques of looking for a tramline support and the Fib at a good level A good solid candlestick on the previous day.. which is then a good place to put a stop loss. Potentially at the end of an ABC dip.. Hence it could actually rally hard However things I do not like about it are; Counter trend trading against the cirrent smaller trend Potentially should have awaited either A) break in the upper trend line for confirmation of the ABC B) awaited until the upper trend line before shorting.

7 #3 - hourly - win A bit more detail on the stop and profit target.. Aiming for two different profit targets.. First one is where I will half of the profits (recent swing lo) and then the rest at the second blue line (swing lo) just above the other line. Stop loss is jus below the recent tail..

8 #3 - daily – loss - after I felt this was going to be a losing trade, mainly due to going against the trend.. It does appear that there is further support down there with another hammer candlestick appearing.. But I need to await for the main trend to resume rather than going against it

9 #3 - hourly – loss - after From the below.. I was expecting a strong upwards move once the smaller wedge formation had been broken… but was always fighting the main trend.. I should be looking for reversals on shorter term trends that are against the main trend


11 #4 - Daily - lesson I have been following these tramlines for awhile now and missed out on the recent rally by a day or so.. And have been looking for a chance to get short at the top. At the top level, there is a lot of pips to be taken when this falls (potentially around 700) Why profit target? Attempting to take a large chunk of the swing.. The first target is the 38% retrace(coinciding with recent congestion) and the second the 81% retrace (coinciding with the bottom of the channel)

12 #4 - Hourly - lesson Why: On the hourly there has a been a convergence of tramlines.. With the upper being very strong and then a sub-group of channels forming within.. There was a head fake out of the main channel and then a break of the secondary channel with a kiss and a strong hourly candle suggesting a reversal..

13 #4 - 15mins - lesson Why: Whilst a little messy, it was the 15 mins charts that I was looking for the entry signal on. A break of the thick purple line and then a kiss followed by a strong move downwards.. Maybe have suggested a ABC counter trend rally and perhaps a chance in direction.. This proved to be false.. However I now have new tramlines which appear to be working.. The blue tramlines are providing a strong resistance and are something I should have seen before.. Also the 62% fib retracement also appears to be holding. Why stop loss.. I lacked some discipline here and placed the initial stop loss at 2% just above the recent shooting star.. However I wanted to give it more room so moved the % risk to 3% and place it as high as possible. My ideal stop loss would have been at the high of the previous day.

14 #4 - 15mins - lesson What happened Price continued on its merry way upwards.. As I got the direction wrong.. If I look at the below.. I can begin to draw more tramlines which would have meant that there was no tramline break.. Encouragingly though… I managed to identify the ABC correction with great accuracy.. Potentially a little too late after the event.. But this would have been a great trade if I had carried it out properly. What I have learnt Assess all other possibilities for tramlines.. Just because you have draw some.. Are there any others which exist and would tell a better story Trade with the main trend.. Still trying to catch a top.. Daily and hourly trend was still upwards..


16 #5-7 - weekly - lesson Why trade? At the weekly level, there is a good risk to reward ratio as the price nears to the top of the chart. The top tramline is likely a bit higher than it states. The candle sticks also look as they wish to change direction.. A large doji followed by an engulfing. Why profit target? It is not certain that price will make it all the way to the bottom.. But there are two areas of congestion for each of the fib levels (36 + 50)

17 #5-7 - daily - lesson Why trade? This is the strongest piece of evidence.. There was a massive break of the lower tramline with strong conviction. Momentum is falling as the price no longer makes higher highs… essentially making a double top. Point to note.. The purple line has served as a good base for the past week.. With lots of buy orders coming in there.. As soon as this was broken.. The 1 min charts shown a major fall as stop losses become triggered.. Expecting this to happen again around the 15900 area..

18 #5-7 - 15mins - lesson Why: So I have established the fact that it is a good trade.. However there was a lack of discipline within the entry.. First entry I was potentially going for was at point A.. But I did not have the conviction at the time to do so. Upon reflection.. This was would have been a good trade with the kiss coming back up and the ability to place a goo d stop loss inside the tramlines I did enter at B and C.. But the stop losses were too small as I decided to be clever and put on 2 a point or 1 a point with a smaller stop loss D again being clever and was never a good idea. I am currently still in the game just below point D with a very wide stop loss A B C D

19 #8 - 15mins – lesson - Post What happened My first target was hit.. Which was the recent swing low area. I took 50% of profits at this point and was thinking of letting the rest run down to the second profit target.. However.. Most of the major currencies were staging a bounce, so I move the stop loss to be quite close and booked the profits. What I have learnt Whilst I was awaiting an avalanche to occur.. The resistance in this area has proved to be strong. I have taken changed my views and taken a reversal position recently on another pair.


21 #9/11 - daily – lesson Why: At the overall level the stock markets are what I was call overbought and are due a big correction. This is a bias of mine and has led me to become undone several times. There was a topping pattern occurring on the Dow on the daily and so I decided to take a short position Also consider there were Fed minutes being released the same day

22 #9/11 - 15 mins – lesson Why: As mentioned the market was definitely falling and there were previous entry attempts but to no avail. This was a pretty horrible coupe of trades all round There were fed minutes, and I had a sell order below an area of recent support, however there was a massive spike which came from the minutes and entered/ stopped me out in the same candle I re-entered on the way down a massive candle and was in profit.. However the subsequent day there was a rally. Learning The indices general are very volatile and require a larger stop than I should be able to use.. Either that or I should use the ETF to enable me to use smaller position sizes. Also trading when announcements are upcoming are very dangerous and should be avoided


24 #10 - daily – lesson Why: There is a massive wedge building over the last few months and the outbreak from this is likely to be quite large. I had another set of tramlines drawn which showed it had broken out and then had returned for a kiss.. Which would have been a good trade Mentally.. I was biased and come from a missed opportunity position. Earlier in the week I had not been bold enough to place a trade at the morning star 3 days earlier.. Which would have been an excellent trade

25 #10 - 15 mins – lesson Why: Price had fallen back to the recent level of support and I expected a bounce back to the top Learnings: There were several components of my/ JCB system that I had not considered.. There were no tramlines, but there are now.. Which clearly mark my decision as wrong and provide much better guidance now No checking the EW Not checking for divergences Overall a lazy bet – although it is likely my targets will be hit in the futre.. Just need a more disciplined entry


27 #13 - weekly Why: On the long term charts there is a wedge forming with strong resistance overhead.. Recently rallies have met the overhead resistance, and we are currently in an upward trend.. So my expectancy is to meet a recent swing high

28 #13 - daily Why: KISS and sticking to my original rules.. This is a good trade. Strong reversal candlestick on the daily At the bottom of a trend line in an upwards trend At the 50% fib line Good risk to reward ratio of around 500% for a two step solution (or even the swing high is 374%) Although I have seen some potentially conflicting wave counts.. JCB believes this is an ABC.. However I have labelled it as a 5 th wave coming up.. We’ll have to wait and see. Also note. I have been fairly aggressive with this trade.. Rather than awaiting confirmation and placing an order the day before.. I am down the next day.. But we’ll have to wait and see.

29 #13 - daily – end of trade Why: It appears that john was correct and it was an ABC rally.. Before another steep decline.. If the above holds true then we maybe in a wave 3 within a wave 3.. Which would be very strong and long.. Below the blue line.. There is not much resistance.. So I will be keeping an eye on this for a potential big fall in the imminent future Lessons Evaluate the EW waves and try to get some corroborating evidence Awaiting confirmation.. This would have led to the trade not being taken in the end


31 #13 - weekly Why: On the long term charts there is a wedge forming with strong resistance overhead.. Recently rallies have met the overhead resistance, and we are currently in an upward trend.. So my expectancy is to meet a recent swing high


33 #14 - Weekly – Order Why? I have taken a long position which is against the current long term down trend for the year because; There appears to be a tramline break on the weekly, which has no resulted in a kiss A pull back after the tramline break to a strong fib line (62%) Vague area of horizontal resistance Against the above.. I have noted some possible EW counts.. Which would indicate that the next move should be down.

34 #14 - Daily – Order Why? A little messy.. But the purple are my daily time frame notes and the blue are the weekly.. For I have also labelled (Thanks to JCB) a 5 wave.. Which has just completed.. Now with the expectancy of an ABC corrective wave. The B.. There is a potential for a gap down and then a gap up.. With a little hammer formed At the bottom of a strong upward trend line Sitting on the weekly and the daily 62% fib offering great support Tramline break from the main downward trend Against Negative momentum divergence on the end of the 5 wave.. May mean a break of the tramlines Potential ABC, means the bounce will not be that high and the RR is not as great as I suspected Action Plan Current targets are previous high and edge of tramlines.. These may not be feasible.. If trade is triggered then I’ll move to break even once the 50% fib is broken and trail above the 10630 (38%

35 #14 - 1h – Order Why? The one hour chart does not provide much more evidence either way.. Although the 15 minute chart suggests there is a positive momentum divergence appearing.. However this could have already played out due to the smaller time frame.. Hence smaller moves What happened next? Price continued lower, so I decided that my plan was not a good one and took off the order. Next stop down is the 62% fib line and another set of tramlines


37 #15 - Hourly loss– Order Why? Another horrible trade on the DOW chasing the millions.. Need to get out of the mindset that I can become a millionaire over night.. Tried to call a top again but failed.. No real technical attempt here but pure guesswork How was I feeling? I was feeling good and lucky. The thought of the dream of becoming a millionaire was in my grasp. I need to calm down and concentrate on my pre-market plan and only execute those trades. As now.. (6am) I am in a good frame of mind and very objective


39 #16 - Daily Why? I have been tracking this market for awhile and conceptually it was a good trade, however the execution was poor. Kiss on the daily against the tramlines expecting a subsequent fall Around the 62% retrace Counted an ABC corrective wave (A and B are almost the same size), which led me to believe there was a 5W down.. This would be the second wave. Targets were the most recent low, and the low after that.. Providing a combined r/r 1/7 How was I feeling? I was feeling good and lucky. The thought of the dream of becoming a millionaire was in my grasp. I had looked at this in the morning and decided against trading it due to my recent ear problems.. However I was feeling a little too euphoric to be trading particularly late at night.

40 #16 - 1h Why? I had been tracking this in the AM and noticed it had broken out of the tram lines and was heading somewhere else.. I had drawn similar tramlines equidistant away. During the PM I was impulsive and decided to enter anyway. Learning Working orders are good. In a recent trade I placed a working order in one direction but price went against me.. This meant I was wrong but did not cost me anything The most important factor are the tramlines! This is way it is called the tram line trading method.. I should have waited to see if price rebounded from the newly drawn lines. Ultimately it would have been good to see if there was a break of the current short term tramlines. I may look to re-enter.


42 #17 - Daily Why? Again I have been tracking this for awhile.. And awaiting a good entry. This could be it.. But I have taken an order just in case This could be a shooting star on the daily On the hourly, it has hit resistance on two sets of tramlines. On the daily it looks as though it will kiss it and then return south Fib lines of 50%/62% Reasons against the trade No momentum divergences No clear ABC pattern on the retrace Near the lows of multi year tramlines How was I feeling? In the mornings I am feeling more objective and I am in no hurry at the moment to get anywhere or do anything. This ticks the boxes of a good trade from the work shop.. And I do believe that JCB will be taking it too.

43 #17 - 1h Why? It is clearer on the hourly chart, with clearly defined tramlines and a good rejection of the multi- month tramlines above. The trend appears to remain down wards until otherwise proven. Slight concern about the stop not being far enough away.. And any sudden spike could put me out.. However I would be hoping in an ideal world there is a gap down and then strong momentum to carry it.

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