Presentation on theme: "RETRANS2 – Final Report Univ. -Prof. Dr. -Ing"— Presentation transcript:
1RETRANS2 – Final Report Univ. -Prof. Dr. -Ing RETRANS2 – Final Report Univ.-Prof. Dr.-Ing. Armin Schnettler, Thomas Dederichs Ann-Kathrin Meinerzhagen, Eva Szczechowicz RWTH Aachen University, Germany12. July 2011
2Background of the project IntroductionBackground of the projectThe transport sector is globally growing and has the strongest reliance on fossil fuels from all economic sectorsGHG emissions from transport increased by 26% from (in Europe)Worldwide transport is responsible for 25% of energy-related CO2-EmissionsEuropean Target – 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 compared to 1990thus oil consumption in the transport sector must drop by around 70% from todayExpected development (globally)2009: 6,8 billion people, 700 million passenger vehicles2050: billion people, billion passenger vehiclesMitigation of fuel-dependency and CO2-Emissions possible with Electric Vehicles?Co-Evolution of transport sector and energy sector provides opportunities for developing Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources and Electric VehiclesEnergy systems and transport characteristics differ around the world → need for regional perspectivesSource:International Energy Agency (2010): RETRANS – Opportunities for the Use of Renewable Energy in Road Transport – Policy Makers Report.
3Comparison of three world regions Scope of RETRANS2 RegionsComparison of three world regionsIdentify challenges and opportunities for the Co-Evolution of Electric Vehicles and Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources in three world regions (North America, Europe, China)Similarities and differences in personal mobilityInfrastructure requirements for the integration of Electric Vehicles and Electricity from Renewable Energy SourcesExisting policy frameworkEconomical influences on the evolution of Electric Vehicles and Renewable EnergyAssist stakeholders of this Co-Evolution in better understanding the characteristics of each regionExamine whether the policy recommendations from the RETRANS project can be appliedIdentification of those policy options that have to be adjusted to better fit the situation in one regionBased on the findings of the RETRANS project which examined different options of using renewable energy in the transport sector, RETRANS2 Regions aims at identifying challenges and opportunities for the Co-Evolution of Electric Vehicles and Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources in three world regions (North America, Europe and China). The political and economical framework for Co-Evolution is expected to differ between the three regions.
4Stakeholders for Co-Evolution Policies Background information from RETRANSStakeholders for Co-Evolution PoliciesOEMsEVs can be counted as ZEVs if contribution to energy fund for new RES-E is paidLower overall fleet emissionsUtilitiesSystems stabilizing bonus for connected EVsDSOsSmart metering requiredGovernmentHard coupling: increase RES-E portfolio share with growing EV market penetrationTax exemption on RES-E traction currentAggregatorActor that bundles EVs in a certain region for offering their common capacity for ancillary servicesSystem stabilizing bonus might offer additional potential for revenueSource:International Energy Agency (2010): RETRANS – Opportunities for the Use of Renewable Energy in Road Transport – Policy Makers Report.G4V (2010) : Parameter Manual.
5RETRANS Policy Recommendations Consistent long term policy for Co-Evolution needed that involves a variety of actorsPreparation for EVsInfrastructure and standardization (plugs, charging levels, smart grids)Pilot fleets in niche marketsLearning effects for cost reductionsLong term perspective for Industry, security of investmentIncrease RES-E productionFeed-in tariffs or premiumsRenewable portfolio shares or obligationsCap and tradeBalanced grid developmentPriority access for renewables (no coal based charging)Coordinated technical and institutional effortsSmart grids and active load managementPhase 2: Increase EV deployment for mass markets, increase system integration (V2G)Source:International Energy Agency (2010): RETRANS – Opportunities for the Use of Renewable Energy in Road Transport – Policy Makers Report.
6Methodology & approach Literature survey and analysis of relevant studies and policy papersAssessment of pilot projects(In-House) Expert interviews on characteristics of regional electricity sector developmentAnalysis of statistical dataAnalysis of regional policies until today and their continuationSources and references can be found in Annex A2.RETRANS2 Regions approaches this scope by an assessment of studies that are relevant to the field and of pilot projects that aim at gaining experience with the deployment of Electric Vehicles. Statistical data on the three regions and regional policies concerning vehicles and renewable energy are analyzed. Expert interviews provide an insight into the regional electricity sector development.
7Chapters Table of Contents Context Regional Economic and Transport-related BackgroundElectric VehiclesRES-E and GridOpportunities & Challenges for Co-EvolutionConclusions
8The Chinese transport sector adapts slowly to Europe and North America Context – Transport Sector OverviewThe Chinese transport sector adapts slowly to Europe and North AmericaNorth AmericaPassenger transport relies mainly on passenger vehicles30% of final energy consumption20% of GHG- EmissionsEurope30% of final energy consumption20% of GHG-EmissionsChinaPassenger transport relies on passenger vehicles and public transportPassenger vehicles become an increasingly important mode of transport8% of final energy consumption9% of GHG-EmissionsOne aspect of the framework for Co-Evolution in which the three regions differ is the economic importance of the transport sector and the importance of passenger vehicles for personal transport. While Europe and North America (both regions basically make up the developed world) show similar characteristics for this aspect, the situation in China is very different. In China, personal transportation is a market that has immensely grown during the last few years.Transport sector has fastest growing energy use and strongest reliance on fossil fuels of all economic sectors worldwide.
9Context –Economic Situation Diverse Economic and Population Background - North America and Europe are comparableGDP per capita (PPP)North America and Europe have a GDP of 4 and 3 times the world average, respectivelyChina has a much lower GDP per capita (0,7 times the world average)Population342 million – North America500 million – Europe (EU27)Low population density in Nordic Countries1.3 billion – ChinaHigh density only in southern and eastern ChinaUrbanizationHigh rates in North America (80%) and Europe (72%) & Northern Europe (79%)Much lower urbanization (47%) in China Urban Chinese population surpasses both North America’s and Europe’s totalWorld AverageSource: IfHT, values from World Monetary Fund1 billionSource: IfHT, values from CIA & EurostatGDP = Gross Domestic Product; PPP = Purchase Power ParityThe Gross Domestic Product expressed per capita in Purchase Power Parity values takes price differences between different countries into account. Thus, these values are better comparable than pure GDP values.The Urbanization rates of Europe and North America, again, are close. 75% of European population (77% (N) – 92% (IS) of Nordic) live in cities while 80% do so in North America (more in Canada than in US). Thus, especially Nordic Europe and North America are similar regarding their population levels.Sources:International Monetary Fund (for GDP per capita (ppp))Eurostat, Statistics Canada, US Census Bureau, CIA – The World FactbookUnited Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, The 2009 revision.Nordregio 2010100%Source: IfHT, values from UN
10Differences in Vehicle ownership and Market development Context – Vehicles MarketDifferences in Vehicle ownership and Market developmentNorth AmericaEuropeChinaVehicles on Road277 million210 million~55 millionPassenger Vehicle Sales12 million (2009)16 million (2009)10,3 million (2009) 13,7 million (2010)Vehicles per 1000 people830473Nordic: 500Eastern: 38054 Beijing: 228Overall Market situation todayStagnating, expected to increase as of 2012StagnatingStrongly growing (doubling of sales within 3 years)The road infrastructure differs between the three regions. Refer to Annex A13 for details.Vehicle ownership and market development for passenger vehicles again are similar for North America and Europe. However, North American vehicle ownership per person is unequalled by any other region. China‘s situation is especially interesting regarding the potential for Electric Vehicles and Co-Evolution. Low vehicle ownership and strong growth of vehicle sales may facilitate the market entrance of electric vehicles.Sources:US Census Bureau, State Motor Vehicle Registrations.Statistics Canada, Motor vehicle registrations.Eurostat
11Context – Chinese Vehicles Market Chinese market will be catching up on Western levels – further extreme growth expectedHighest global sales of passenger vehicles as of 2009Sales more than doubled within 3 years~ 13.7 million new passenger vehicles in 2010Further growth expected, especially for lower-margin subcompact and compact cars2010Vehicle Sales (Total/ Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles)The booming market for passenger vehicles and the further expected growth especially for subcompact and compact cars opens opportunities for electric vehicles. At the right price electric vehicles could be preferred over conventional cars. Slide 32 presents detail concerning the requirements for this market entry.Sources:China Energy Statistical YearbookiCET
12Context – Passenger traffic Cars are most important for passenger traffic and will most likely stay soEurope and North America rely mainly on private cars for passenger transportImportance of vehicles is mirrored in available infrastructure (Annex A13)Further increase in traffic expected for the European UnionPassenger traffic activity + 51%, 2005 – 2050Reasons:ImmigrationExpansion of the Union (increase in labor mobility)Economic growthIncrease in labor mobilityNorth AmericaEuropeShare of passenger-km in private cars93%83%Travelled km per person and year15,000 – 20,000ca. 10,000Nordic: 14,000 – 20,000Especially in North America and Europe, cars are most important for personal transport needs. While public transport networks in China and Europe take up most or some of the passenger-kilometers, in North America public transport is almost exclusively used in cities.
13Chapters Table of Contents Context Regional Economic and Transport-related BackgroundElectric VehiclesRES-E and GridOpportunities & Challenges for Co-EvolutionConclusions
14Analysis of Strengths and Weaknesses Context – Electric VehiclesAnalysis of Strengths and WeaknessesStrengthsEconomical drivingElectric grid provides basic infrastructureWeaknessesBattery limitsLack of StandardizationFew models availableScarce infrastructureHigh investment costsOpportunitiesIntegrating RES in transport sectorReducing local emissions (not only gaseous but also dust and noise)ThreatsCosts for infrastructureBattery lifetimeSafetyAdvances in efficiency of conventional vehiclesThe World Health Organization recently published their „Burden of disease from environmental noise. Quantification of healthy life years lost in Europe”- report which gives an estimate of 1 million disability adjusted life-years (sum of the potential years of life lost due to premature death and the equivalent years of “healthy” life lost by virtue of being in states of poor health or disability) that are due to environmental noise. A huge proportion of environmental noise is traffic-related, in cities especially to vehicle traffic.It is estimated that EVs production capacity (per model and year) will be needed for economies of scale.An estimate of the present value of investments required for developing the electric road transport infrastructure in the EU amounts to € billion.
15EVs are a niche market Context – Transport Sector – Electric Vehicles EVs are close to the marketThis will change with increased adoption and information to the general public.North AmericaEuropeChinaEV sales (2009)1.1% of passenger vehiclesJDPower: 2,8% sales1% of passenger vehicles0,4% of vehicles(distribution below)Only HEVs,BEVs sales negligibleE-Bikes and E-Scooters includedLess than 0,01% of vehicles on road are EVs2020 Outlook3-10% of passenger vehicles on the road ( )5% TargetMarket share of 3-10% = 0,45-1,5 million EVs in Europe in 2025, seen as “realistic”As of end of 2010 there have been 7466 EVs (BEV, PHEV, HEV, FCEV) delivered in China. Graphic shows proportion of sales for Guangdong province as an example.Sources:J.D. Power and Associates, Drive Green 2020: More Hope Than Reality?, 2010.European Parliament, 2010: Challenges for a European market for Electric VehiclesHuang
16Context –Electric Vehicles & GHG Mitigation Benefits regarding GHG emissions strongly depend on the regional electricity mixEVs considered as low- or no-emission-vehiclesTechnically this depends on the electricity mixEVs powered by coal-fired power plants emit >800gCO2/ kmNighttime charging can result in both increasing the share of RES-E and in increasing the share of fossil base-load electricity and thus in higher emissionsEmissions of EVs are 50% of ICEVs’ with current European electricity mixEmissions of EVs are 89-74% of ICEVs’ with current USA electricity mixGHG emissions lower in Canada (2006 data) because of higher proportion of RES-E (depending on province)Using RES-E, GHG emissions could be reduced to 75%-38% of ICEVs’ to which the new CAFE standards of 35.5 mpg by 2016 apply.ICE BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PEI NL200100Electricity mixes for the three world regions can be found on slide 41.Sources:European Parliament, 2010: Challenges for a European market for Electric VehiclesEuropean Environment Agency (2009): Towards a resource-efficient transport system.CANMET Energy, Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap for Canada, 2009.GHG = Greenhouse gas – EV = Electric vehicleICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicle RES-E = Electricity from Renewable SourcesCAFE standards = US fuel efficiency standards
17Context – Transport Sector – Emissions of EVs GHG emissions from electric vehicles are beneficial only in some Chinese regionsIn China the high share of coal-based electricity in the grid increases EVs’ emissions above those from conventional ICEVs (2010 data)The electricity mix in the more densely populated southern and eastern China decreases EVs’ emissions below conventional valuesThe northern regions that today have the highest emission values have large unconnected wind resourcesN NE E C NW S Hai Av ICEElectricity mixes for the three world regions can be found on slide 41.Sources:Earley et al, 2011: Electric Vehicles in the Context of Sustainable Development in ChinaGHG = Greenhouse gas – EV = Electric vehicleICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicle RES-E = Electricity from Renewable Sources
18Context – Electric Vehicles – Economic Influence Low gas prices in North America and China reduce interest in EV’s cost-benefitsGas prices and gas tax are low in China, Canada and the USA relative to EuropeGas prices around the world (US $ per gallon, 2011)Source:Since many potential electric vehicle users shrink back at the price, the total costs of ownership are the most important financial argument for electric vehicles. However, these costs can only compete with those from conventional vehicles if the price difference of the fuel types is high enough. Thus, low gas prices reduce the margin in which electric vehicles are cheaper than conventional ones (cumulated over the entire lifetime).
19Context – Electric Vehicles – Economic Influence General transport sector emissions policies influence also the deployment of electric vehiclesGHG emissions are taken into account through taxation in many European countries (map) (Dark Blue: more than one taxation scheme, Light Blue: one kind of CO2-tax) and in ChinaTax benefits from this taxation reduce impact of cost-difference compared with conventional carsNo taxation of GHG emissions of passenger vehicles in North AmericaElevated electricity costs in Nordic countriesInfluence the economical viability of EVsVariety of policies regarding future of transportShift of commodities to rail and inland navigationIncrease of public transportHolistic approach provides less secure framework for investmentsAn overview of policies that concern the deployment of electric vehicles can be found in Annex A5.Another aspect that influences the total costs of ownership of electric vehicles is the taxation these vehicles are subject to. This aspect can be varied according to governmental targets and is therefore an interesting policy instrument.In Europe, vehicle taxation is more and more based on GHG emissions. The map shows the distribution of GHG emissions-based taxes in Europe. Dark couloured countries have implemented more than one taxation scheme that takes CO2-emissions into account. Light couloured countries have implemented only one form of incentive. The measures include: registration tax, annual circulation tax, company car tax, deduction of vehicle use, incentives for purchase of an environmentally friendly car (sometimes bound to scrapping an old car first)Vehicle taxation in China is based on displacement and fuel consumption (proportional to CO2-Emissions) of the vehicleSources:ACEAFinish Energy Industry ,2011: Energy taxation in Europe, Japan and the United StatesEuropean Parliament, 2010: Challenges for a European market for Electric VehiclesEuropean Commission, 2011: White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area
20Societal change drives the deployment of electric vehicles Context – Electric Vehicles - DriversSocietal change drives the deployment of electric vehiclesUrbanizationUrban areas experience most traffic problemsHigh population density in urban areas warrants investments in infrastructureUrban population tends to early adoption of new technologiesSo far the number of EVs (per head) is biggest in citiesBut:Charging infrastructure faces competition for spaceImmigration and labor mobilityIncrease mobility needsCustomer acceptance of new mobility patterns, of the look, space and performance of EVsThe main driver for the deployment of electric vehicles in cities is the increasing number of people living there. This increases traffic problems and local emissions and calls for new mobility solutions. Immigration – thus, an increase in population – and increasing labor mobility also increases traffic volumes. However, even the biggest need for alternative transport solutions will not lead to an increased deployment of electric vehicles unless the potential customers accept the look, space and performance of these new vehicles and are also willing to accept changes in their personal mobility patterns. Successful car-sharing and bike-rental projects show that people are accepting new mobility solutions.Sources:EurostatEuropean Parliament, 2010: Challenges for a European market for Electric VehiclesSessa & Enei, 2009: EU transport demand: Trends and drivers
21Context – Electric Vehicles – Drivers Technical and political development will have strongest influence on EV deploymentPolitical and regulatory supportSubsidiesInfrastructure developmentPilot projectsRecommendations from funding organizations207 models recommended for subsidies in China only these models are eligibleSome European countries publish catalogues of vehicles that are entitled to benefitsStandardizationSecure framework for investments from stakeholdersDevelopment of vehicle energy storage systemsLonger driving rangeLower battery costsA list of support policies for electric vehicles can be found in Annex A3. Framework policies that concern the deployment of electric vehicles can be found in Annex A5.Some drivers for the deployment of electric vehicles are universally the same. The importance of political and regulatory support, early standardization and advances in the development of vehicle energy storage systems are needed for opening markets for electric vehicles, for providing security for manufacturers and comfortable usage for customers.The sustainability of the deployment of electric vehicles has to be taken into account for devising support policies!
22Context – Electric Vehicles – Drivers The availability of charging infrastructure is a basic requirement for electric vehicle deploymentSecurity aspect for usersNecessary for widespread EV usageQuick-charging is now being implemented in the Nordic European countriesApril 12, 2011 Denmark's first quick charge station opened (max. 20 minutes for 80 % SOC)2 stations have been build in the Oslo area in NorwayBattery swapping stations will be built in Denmark (Figure: Projection for 2012)In China all three charging technologies are/ will be testedSome pilot cities have already published standardsSlow charging and battery swapping are preferred by grid companiesNo governmental preferences yetFirst trials have shown that EV users prefer to charge their vehicle at home. However, widespread charging infrastructure is needed for giving users the security that they can charge their vehicle whenever they need. While everyday use is within the range of an electric vehicle, on-road charging will be needed for exceptional trips. The extend to which vehicles will be sufficiently standardized for enabling battery swapping remains unclear.
23Electric vehicles do not meet with favorable conditions everywhere Context – Challenges for EVsElectric vehicles do not meet with favorable conditions everywhereDiverse climate conditionsAll three regions encompass various climate zones with cold winters in the north and humid and hot summers in the southThese climatic differences will lead to different battery lifetime and vehicle availabilityLandscape and road conditions varyAreas with low population density increase infrastructural costs for widespread deploymentMidwestern America, western and northern China, northern EuropeFor first usage in cities population density is not an issueAgeing population in North America and EuropeAgeing people remain increasingly mobile and thus cause more trafficAn increasing share of governmental funds has to be dedicated to careFunding for new technologies becomes more difficultSources:European Parliament (2010): Challenges for a European market for electric vehicles
24Complementary use rather than replacing conventional vehicles Context – Electric Vehicles – MarketsComplementary use rather than replacing conventional vehiclesElectric vehicles are typically second carsCommutingGermany: most commuting distances are 80 km or underThis is absolutely within EVs rangeInner-City-TrafficReduction of local emissionsNoiseGreen House Gases and ParticlesShort distances, stop and goIntegration into Car-Sharing programsNo individual perception of purchase costsPublic electric vehicles in ChinaBuses & Taxis – uniform fleets allow economies of scale and battery swappingSanitation vehicles, postal cars, other public services’ vehiclesA list of EV models that are available in the three regions is listed in Annex A6.Electric vehicles are and will be deployed first as second vehicles that are used mainly for commuting and inner-city traffic. These usage patterns are within the range electric vehicles can drive and their users keep their first cars for any other trips. The integration of electric vehicles into car-sharing programs is possible, too.In China the first deployment today is mostly made up of public vehicles – especially buses and taxis. The pilot cities thus can buy large numbers of identical vehicles which all have the same requirements on charging infrastructure and result in economies of scale for vehicle manufacturers. Private electric vehicles are only subsidized in five cities (see slide 29).In Montreal, car-sharing program Communauto will be adding 50 Nissan LEAF EVs to its fleet of 1000 vehicles by the end of The charging infrastructure will be provided by Hydro Quebec, the principal electrical utility.Sources:European Parliament, 2010: Challenges for a European market for Electric Vehicles
25Usage models have different requirements on EVs and infrastructure Context – Electric Vehicles – MarketsUsage models have different requirements on EVs and infrastructureInner-City trafficShort distances, low requirements for speedSlow charging, mostly at homeCommutingMedium requirements for distances and speedSlow charging, at home and at workCar sharingShort and medium distances, low and medium speedSlow charging at stations, maybe battery swappingInter-City-TrafficLong distances, high requirements for speedFast charging and battery swapping on roadThe requirements on electric vehicles from different usage patterns show why first deployments in cities are so attractive. Distances travelled while commuting or in inner-city-traffic are within the range of electric vehicles. Additionally, the requirements for speed are medium hight. Vehicles in car-sharing fleets have approximately the same requirements. Thus, slow charging “at home” (= at sharing station) and at work combined with the possibility to fast charge on the road will suffice. Only long distance traffic e.g. between cities that also requires high speed will need fast charging and/ or battery swapping possibilities “on the road”.
26Context – Electric Vehicles – Business Models EVs should be offered in a package including additional transport and other servicesPublic transport ticket(s)Rental car serviceCombination with car-sharing programs?Installation of home charging pointAccess to charging stations/ reserved parking spotsFree charging on public charging stationsFlat rate for charging current from RES-EPay-per-mile battery leasing offersMaintenance servicesGuarantee on battery and vehicle partsInsuranceElectric vehicles are part of a transition in the transport sector. As such their deployment should be complemented by offering mobility solutions for the needs that are not easily fulfilled through electric vehicles (long-distance travel).The public acceptance of electric vehicles can be increased by offering services packages that include charging points and convenient accounting solutions.
27Pilot Projects are nuclei for EV deployment Context – Electric Vehicles – Pilot ProjectsPilot Projects are nuclei for EV deploymentNorth AmericaFunding from (regional) governments and OEMsProjects mostly in big citiesDifferent usage models (Car-sharing, public transportation, postal vehicles)EuropeFunding from governments and OEMsProjects concentrate on one city or regionFocus on Usage experience for EVs and charging infrastructureVariety of scales (charging per EV, EVs per project…)Mostly, cars are leasedChinaFunding from government and municipalities25 pilot citiesMostly, only public vehicles are fundedAn overview of pilot projects in the three regions can be found in Annex A4.Funding of pilot projects in North America: US Department of Energy or Natural Resources Canada / CANMET in Canada).
28European pilot projects surpass North Americans in numbers Context – Electric Vehicles – Pilot ProjectsEuropean pilot projects surpass North Americans in numbersProjects concentrate on cities or one peculiar regionSmall scale co-operation of local authorities, Utilities and OEMsFocusExperience/ UsagePrivate use, CommutingCar sharingPublic transportation, Postal serviceCharging infrastructureMany big cities have pilot projectsCommercial/ public vehiclesOne project encompasses several states (see Annex A4)An overview of pilot projects and more details can be found in Annex A4.
29Chinese “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” Program Context – Electric Vehicles – Pilot ProjectsChinese “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” ProgramThere are three stages of 25 pilot cities in the “Ten Cities Thousand Vehicles” pilot program.Currently, most EV in these pilot cities are public buses, taxis, official’s cars and services vehicles.5 cities have subsidies for private EV customersAn overview of pilot projects and more details can be found in Annex A4.Largely due to the low capacity and short lifespan of batteries, many E-buses are no longer in use.Details of five representative cities are listed in Annex A4.
30User Behavior Context – Electric Vehicles – Users EV users are early adopters or members of public organizationsEarly adopters are older, educated, interested in technology and enjoy being early adoptersWillingness to plug-in may depend on business modelsInterest in earnings through delayed charging vs. concerns about availability of the EVV2G services only of interest if a benefit is perceivedPreference for home charging (90% in Northern Europe, 70% in Western Europe)Consumers value environmental performance, but they value other attributes more.Source:European Parliament, 2010: Challenges for a European market for Electric Vehicles
31User concerns Context – Electric Vehicles – Users Global issues Manufacturing issuesHigh initial investmentUsers today are more willing to take TCO into account for purchasing decisionsPriceEVs cost at least ¥ 20,000 more than ICEVs of same performance40% of consumers that avoid purchasing a hybrid do so due to cost. Only 10% of non-hybrid consumers avoid a purchase due to cost.Nordic countries: Prices on EVs (free from registration charge) coming close to those of conventional cars (including charge). EV family cars start at € 65,000 in NorwayFuel economy (in $/km)/ Operating costsScarce infrastructurePerformance of EVs14% of consumers that avoid purchasing a hybrid do so due to performance. Only 5% of non-hybrid consumers avoid a purchase due to performance.Geographical differencesWeather/ climate In 2010 Danish EVs showed poor performance in cold weatherLandscape/ RoadsDriving rangeCharge timesBattery life(span)Relatively few models available/ lack of diversityDislike of the look/designSafetyTCO = Total Cost of OwnershipICEV = Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle
32Urban and rural backgrounds for EVs differ – also between the regions Context – Electric Vehicles – Urban vs. RuralUrban and rural backgrounds for EVs differ – also between the regionsUrbanRural80% of North American population, 75% of European population, 46% of Chinese population lives in citiesTraffic load in cities increasesEmissions from traffic increase (gaseous, dust, noise)Increase of congestionCommuters have high requirements on vehicle performance and reliabilityCities have highest need for holistic passenger transportation solutionMost deployment of EVs in citiesSpatial planning conflicts for charging infrastructurePublic transportation is not always conveniently availableNeed for reliable private transportation solutionsVehicle ownership rates are higher (Europe & North America)/ lower (China) than in citiesDemand for vehicles in rural and suburban areas increasesFocus: low-speed low-cost vehicles70 km/h maximum, 40,000 – 50,000 ¥Challenges: safety, environmental impacts (battery), traffic regulation conflictsSources:US Department of Agriculture (2005): Rural Transportation at a Glance
33Context – Electric Vehicles – Standardization Standardization of infrastructure and vehicle characteristics is urgently neededSome general vehicle standards for safety specifications, general design specifications and emission testing also apply to electric vehiclesStandardized Plug needed urgentlyWider harmonization needed, parallel systems exist todayMennekes plug is harmonized between France and GermanyScame plug is supported by French-Italian allianceYazaki is standard plug in the USAChinese pilot cities have started issuing their own standards for charging infrastructureNeed for standards onNumber of phases for charging (1 or 3)National and cross-national compatibilitySafety requirements + technical approval bodyData protocols and protection of dataCharging cable repositBilling systemLiabilityA list of EV related standards can be found in Annex A7.Sources:European Parliament, 2010: Challenges for a European market for Electric Vehicles"Report on charging stations" Danish Energy AuthorityTommy Lindholm (2010): Vattenfall’s E-mobility programStandards are needed for:Charging interface (plug) ─ not to repeat the situation for LPG-fuelled vehiclesNumber of phases for charging ─ three- or one-phase-chargingCross national compatibility ─ Same charging infrastructure, interfaces, billing system across EuropeSafety requirements + technical approval body ─ Electrical safety of charging stations, of vehicle and station while chargingData protocols and protection of dataCharging cable reposit ─ at charging station/ in the carLiability ─ OEMs/ Utilities/ DSOs/ …Billing ─ ease of use (comparable to filling stations), Pre-Payed vs. included in electricity bill
34Safety standards are especially important Context – Electric Vehicles – StandardizationSafety standards are especially importantDiffering vehicle standards between the USA and Canada (involving bumpers, seat belts, side door strength, metric indicators, etc.).To be harmonized by 2012There is a need for nation-wide harmonized standards for after-market ICE vehicle conversion.Safety of plugs and the charging process is a concern besides design, number of phases & voltage level for chargingPure electric vehicles from independent manufacturers may not be as equipped for safety as modern cars are (airbag, anti-lock brakes, electronic stability control etc.)
35Targets for Electric Vehicles on the road Context – Electric Vehicles – ObjectivesTargets for Electric Vehicles on the roadNorth AmericaUSA: 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2015The EV project which encom-passes 18 urban areas in six states will install 14,000 chargers (residential and public)Canada: 0.5 million electric vehicles on the road by 2018EuropeSum of national targets: 5 million electric vehicles on the road until 2020Needed growth rates for these targets range from 20,000 – 250,000 EVs per year over a 2 – 20 year periodDifferent pilot projects have targets for charging stationsChina0.5 million electric vehicles on the road by 20155 million electric vehicles (5%) on the road by 2020Most ambitious national target worldwideEach pilot city has targets for charging stationsNational targets for infrastructure:- Portugal: 1300 slow charging stations and 50 fast until end of 2011 in Portugal.The European accumulated national targets amount to 5 million electric vehicles. This means a market share of 30% assuming that the overall number of vehicles remains constant. Thus, the European targets are most ambitious which is mirrored in the growth rates of 20,000 – 250,000 new electric vehicles per year. Whether these values will be achieved is highly uncertain.
36Targets for Reduction of GHG emissions Context – Electric Vehicles – ObjectivesTargets for Reduction of GHG emissionsEU Targets20% reduction of GHG emissions (relative to 1990)20% of energy from renewables10% share of renewables in transport20% increase in energy efficiencyNational targets are even stricterSweden & Denmark: 100% renewable fuels in transport by 2030North AmericaNon-binding target of 17% reduction of GHG emissions by 2020 (relative to 2005)Fuel distribution in European road transport 2009Electricity includes inland waterway and air transportSource: EurostatSources:European Parliament, 2009: Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sourcesEnvironment Canada, Canada lists emissions target under the Copenhagen accord.US Department of Energy, President Obama sets a target for cutting US GHG emissions.
37Context – Electric Vehicles – Regulatory Barriers The lack of standards makes long-term planning difficult for vehicle and infrastructure manufacturersNo coordinated effort between car-making markets in terms of regulation (regarding emissions standards which were agreed on in Europe & China or the type of technologies to support) yet.Makes planning effectively for the long term difficult for auto-makersCan be somewhat mitigated by technology-sharing agreements between companiesHinders large-scale deployment (i.e. Chevrolet intends to produce only 10,000 units of the Volt in its first year of production in the United States).No political will to implement high fuel taxes to stimulate the greatest advances in vehicle efficiency and alternative vehiclesIncreasingly strict fuel efficiency standards are a good first stepAn overview of EV related standards can be found in Annex A7.
38Context – Electric Vehicles – Benefits & Incentives National or regional authorities provide a variety of incentives for Electric Vehicle usersTaxation reduction or exemptionRegistration fee – One-time-benefitAnnual circulation or motor tax – annual benefitSubsidiesAt acquisition or laterTraffic privilegesUse of bus lanes, free parkingExemption from ferry tolls or road chargesExemption from car license plate lottery and traffic restrictions (Beijing)Fuel subsidiesReduced insurance rates for pilot fleetsAn overview of subsidies and incentives for EVs can be found in Annex A3.The Beijing car license plate lottery started in January There is a quota of 20,000 license plates every month, 88% of which go to private cars.Traffic restrictions were introduced in April 2010: 20% private cars are taken out of the road every working day during peak hours according to their license plates’ last digit.Details for Regions in Annex A3
39Chapters Table of Contents Context Regional Economic and Transport-related BackgroundElectric VehiclesRES-E and GridOpportunities & Challenges for Co-EvolutionConclusions
40Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources Context – Electricity from Renewable SourcesElectricity from Renewable Energy SourcesStrengthsReduction of GHG-emissionsUsing national energy sourcesDiversification of energy sourcesPromoting emerging industriesWeaknessesConventional power plants need to stay available for energy securityIncreased need for ancillary servicesResources far away from demandOpportunitiesIncreased energy securityClimate change mitigationTransition towards sustainable energy systemsFast growth of production capacityThreatsVolatile character of some RESEnvironmental integration of large RES-E power plantsTechnology not mature enoughHigher costs
411/6th – 1/5th of Electricity is from Renewables Context – RES-E – Current status1/6th – 1/5th of Electricity is from RenewablesNorth America4580 TWh annual production18% share of renewable energy (USA: 11%, CND: 58%)Hydro most important (base load)Europe3600 TWh annual production22% share of renewable energyHydro, wind and biomass most importantCountry shares differ (4%-99%)China3460 TWh annual production17% share of renewable energyHydro mostly used for peak manage-mentMix based on government quotaSources:IEA country statistics electricity/ heatUS Energy Information Administration (EIA), Electric Power Annual,Eurostat (2010): Yearly energy statistics 2008Renewable 0,5%
422020 RES-E Targets and Scenarios Context – RES-E2020 RES-E Targets and ScenariosNorth AmericaNo national targetsProduction from natural gas and wind will increase, Coal will decreaseNuclear decreases (CND) and increases (USA)First strong interconnections between grid areasEuropeTarget for 20% renewable primary energy in 2020 (2008: 17%)Production from natural gas and wind will increaseIncrease in distributed production expectedFurther expansion of interconnections to neighboring countriesChinaTarget for 15% renewable primary energy in 2020 (2008: 8,6%)Domestic coal stays most importantExpansion of transmission capacity (Extra High Voltage, long distance)Details on the expected growth in the regions‘ electricity sectors can be found in Annex A9.The expected increase in small-scale distributed generation in Europe reduces the distances between electricity production and demand and thus reduces the impact on transmission grids. However, distribution grids face increased stress because of the volatility of this generation and ist interaction with consumers.Details for North America in Annex
43Context – RES-E – Incentives Production incentives for renewable electricity are most widely in force in EuropeNorth AmericaFeed-In Tariff only in one provinceRenewable port-folio shares and financial incentives exist in many statesNet metering and standard offer programs (some-times by utilities) as well as fiscal incentives are commonSome federal incentives existEuropeFeed-In Tariffs most popular (below)Investment Grants, Tax Exemptions, other fiscal incentives and Quota obligations and Premiums also in forceChinaStrong government support of new, large RES-E plantsThe electricity mix is determined via a governmental quota – thus, a renewable portfolio share could be im-plemented easilyDetails on support policies for RES-E can be found in Annex A8.The map of Europe shows countries which have incentives for Renewable Electricity in force in dark blue.Source:US Department of Energy, Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency,European Commission (2011): Review of European and national financing of renewable energy
44Context – Electricity Sector – Structure Electricity markets differ – Vertical markets in North America and ChinaNorth AmericaVertically integrated sectorPartly regulated marketMarket entry is difficult for new producers (e.g. of RES-E)EuropeUnbundled internal marketMany different TSOs and DSOsTSOs cooperate in ENTSO-EStakeholder-situation varies between countriesChinaVirtually no market entry for new producersRES-E plants belong to grid companiesVertical electricity markets make the deployment of Renewable Energy a matter of the big utilities. New, small producers cannot enter the market unless the utilities ask for it.
45Context – Reserve market Reserve power feed-in from electric vehicles may be an income option for ownersNorth AmericaRegulation depending on local grid companiesReserve power from vehicles is interesting in North America where reserve power is costlyFirst trials for feed-in from vehicles in two pilot projectsEuropeCountry specific regulationPossible revenue: up to 300 €/aSmall scale of EVs makes participa-tion less interesting for TSOsWater and biomass resources offer buffer capacity for increasing share of RES-E (especially in Nordic countries)ChinaMillions of electric vehicles are needed for an efficient smart gridPrice differences between valley and peak electricity make V2G very interestingGrid expansion and making the grid smarter are premises for valuable services from electric vehiclesDetails on revenue for EV owners can be found in Annex A10.Today, vehicles are banned from feeding energy into the grid. Vehicle to grid services are taken into account only in two North American pilot projects. However, vehicles taking up and feeding back renewable energy from and into the distribution grid might steady the feed-in from renewable sources and provide reserve power to the grid which could earn revenue for the owner. For offering significant amounts of reserve energy, vehicles should be aggregated into groups.Sources:"Kortlægning af strategier for lavenergibyggeri i EU Lande", COWI 2011, Report for the Danish Government. (Danish), Danish Commission on Climate Change 2010Nordic Foresight Analysis, Renewable transport 2011
46Electricity grids are very different in the three regions Context – GridsElectricity grids are very different in the three regionsNorth AmericaOld and not always reliableInvestments decreased over last yearsGrid structure is radial, meshed in regions with high population densityLow overall population density makes expansion costlyIntegration of EVs possible in some regionsEuropeStable and modernGrid structure:Transmission: meshedDistribution: meshed, loop or rayIntegration of EVs possible for up to 40% penetration in most gridsChinaStrong expansion of the transmission grid is going onDistribution grids are not always fit for integrating either RES-E or EVsThe North American grid has grown from regional grids. Investments during the last decade were low because the grid capacity sufficed. Today, investments have to increase to assure supply security. Since especially densely populated regions are likely to experience failures, a modernization of the grid is urgently needed. In China, the grid is straining to keep up with the increasing demand due to the economic growth. Here, both transmission and distribution grids have to be expanded for enabling an increased share of RES-E and EVs and still assuring supply security.European grids generally are in a good shape. They can take up a high share of electric vehicles. However, locally an increase in both distributed production and electric vehicles may result in overloads.Source:Jenny Gold (2009): A Modern Electric Grid: The New Highway System? For NPR: Power Hungry series.
47„One common“ transmission grid for Europe Context – RES-E – Grid organization„One common“ transmission grid for EuropeEuropean Network of TSOs for ElectricityContinental Europe Synchronous AreaNordic Synchronous AreaBaltic Synchronous AreaBritish Synchronous AreaIrish Synchronous AreaIsolated Systems of Cyprus and IcelandHarmonization of Grid CodesCommon Network planningSource:ENTSO-E Factsheet 2011Source: IfHT, based on Entso-e Factsheet 2011
48North American grids are separated today Context – RES-E – Grid organizationNorth American grids are separated todayInterconnected Grids:Western InterconnectionEastern InterconnectionTexasAlaska/ HawaiiLinks between these regions planned.Planning in map:Separation of grids will largely remainThe separation of the grid continues northwards into Canada.Source:National Public Radio (2009): Special Series: Power Hungry – Reinventing the U.S. Electric Grid, Visualizing The U.S. Electric Grid.Source: IfHT, (based on) NPR 2009
49China’s grid is split in two Context – RES-E – Grid organizationChina’s grid is split in twoTwo major grid companiesChina State Grid (blue) 26 Provinces TWhChina Southern Grid (gold) 5 Provinces 628 TWhSix major regional gridsCenter, North/ Northeast East, NorthwestSouthDistributed power production is not encouragedSource:Earley et al. Electric Vehicles in the Context of Sustainable Development in China. United Nations, 2011.Source: IfHT, based on Earley et al.
50Context – RES-E – Regional Power Characteristics The densely populated demand centers are far away from renewable resources in ChinaEnergy resources – and power production – are located far from the demand areas.Wind and other renewable energies could directly charge EVs (or swapped batteries) in both northern China as well as in southwestern China where transport of liquid fuels is inconvenientGiven the low economic development status of these areas, it is likely that low-tech, low-speed, low-cost EVs will be more accepted there.Low-cost EVs use lead-acid batteries which are increasingly causing pollution problems in rural China.Most pilot cities are located in those regions (south and east) where consumption exceeds production. Thus the electric vehicles in those cities are an additional strain on the transmission lines.Source:Imbalance of Power Production and Consumption in China,Interview WenEarley et alSource: IfHT based on "Imbalance of Power Production and Consumption in China” and Earley et al.50
51Fossil fuel-based electricity dominates the electricity mix in China Context – RES-E – Regional Power CharacteristicsFossil fuel-based electricity dominates the electricity mix in ChinaNorthwest and Southwest China have some wind power installedSouth and East China have hydro power availableThis is used for peak load managementRegulated chargingUses excess RES-EIncreases deployed share of RES-ESources:Interview LaiEarley et al. Electric Vehicles in the Context of Sustainable Development in China. United Nations, 2011.Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind & other
52V2G at the moment not legally possible in any region Context – V2GV2G at the moment not legally possible in any regionThe bidirectionality of charging and providing ancillary services makes billing complicatedTwo pilot projects that include V2G are underway in the USA (notably in Colorado)US personal vehicles are used ~1 h/dayExpensive ancillary services (from coal or gas) in USInexpensive ancillary services (from hydro power) in CanadaRegulatory and Usage framework varies heavily in EuropeEuropean cars are immobile most of the day (comparably to the US)Parking situations vary between countriesVehicles are parked on the street overnight in ItalyAvailability of possibilities for plugging-in at work is unclearImportant sources for ancillary services are gas and hydro powerV2G services permitted in Delaware. EV-owners providing power to the grid are payed the same as RES-E producers.Details on pilot projects in annex.Sources:Kempton, W., Vehicle to Grid Power,Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Electrifying the BC Vehicle Fleet, 2009.
53Ancillary services from electric vehicles Context – RES-E – Business modelsAncillary services from electric vehiclesFurther development of Communication infrastructure and bidirectional metering for controlled charging and feed-back neededParticipation in reserve markets is currently outlawedRevenue depends on demand and the energy providedReserve from hydro power (in Canada and Norway) is cheap while natural gas based reserve powerHope that EVs can result in less need for new or closing down existing fossil fuel based base load capacity on the long termDetails on ancillary services from EVs can be found in Annex A10.
54Context – RES-E – Ancillary services Revenues from grid-related services: Reserve capacity in the Nordic power marketDetails on ancillary services from EVs can be found in Annex A10.Source: and Energinet.dk
55Chapters Table of Contents Context Regional Economic and Transport-related BackgroundElectric VehiclesRES-E and GridOpportunities & Challenges for Co-EvolutionConclusions
56Co-Evolution Opportunities Threats Strengths Weaknesses Co-Evolution Increasing stable share of RES-EAbility to include transport sector into emissions-mitigation schemesWeaknessesNeed for smart grids, communication & new structuresStandardizationBusiness modelsOpportunitiesIncreased energy security in transport sectorTransition towards sustainable transportElectricity supply security from RESDevelopment of smart grid technologyThreatsCombination of two so-far independent sectorsToday ancillary services from EVs are outlawedMultiple stakeholders
57Cooperation between stakeholders needed for Co-Evolution Co-Evolution – General RequirementsCooperation between stakeholders needed for Co-EvolutionCo-Evolution only possible if both EV deployment and RES-E production are encouragedRES-E production needs to increase for Co-EvolutionTariffs for charging with RES-E need to be developedCooperation between stakeholdersVehicle and infrastructure standardsFacilitating RES-E integrationProvide possibilities for RES-E chargingGlobally coordinated development of standardsSynergies can only emerge if technological development does not take different directionsInternational cooperation between stakeholders of the Co-Evolution of electric vehicles and renewable electricity is crucial for this Co-Evolution. Especially the development of vehicle and infrastructure standards is needed for international compatibility issues and economies of scale. The range of standards that is needed also encompasses tariff structures for RES-E charging.
58Both RES-E production and EV deployment rely on electricity grids Co-Evolution – System RequirementsBoth RES-E production and EV deployment rely on electricity gridsGrids need to be sufficiently stable and/ or expanded for accommodatingNew centralized (off-shore/ on-shore wind) and distributed (solar PV, micro-wind, etc.) productionPreference for centralized RES-E production means more attention on transmission grids. Security of supply is seen as more important than increasing the share of RES-E.Additional distributed loadBattery swapping stations could stabilize and centralize demandA preference for home charging means increased (distributed) household-loadOpportunities for high penetration of EVsRegulated chargingFor better capacity utilizationFor taking stress off the distribution grid (assets)Storage of RES-EIncrease share of RES-EProvide reserve power for gridStabilize feed-in from volatile sourcesFor a Co-Evolution of renewable electricity and electric vehicles the stability of the electricity network has to be guaranteed at all times. Both the integration of new production and new loads can increase the stress on the grid’s assets. Battery swapping stations and centralized RES-E production in big plants can simplify the management of load and production. Battery swapping stations can answer to demand side management with more capacity than single EVs (and vehicles do not have to be aggregated for offering a similar capacity).Today’s hope that a high penetration of electric vehicles will lead to an increased share of stable, “produced-on-demand” renewable electricity fed into the grid after having been stored in electric vehicles’ batteries will only be possible with a sophisticated communication infrastructure that links RES-E production and electric vehicles.PV = PhotovoltaicsRES-E = Electricity from Renewable Sources
59The two European island states take different routes Co-Evolution – Situation of IslandsThe two European island states take different routesIceland focuses on Hydrogen and Fuel cell vehiclesCo-Evolution of RES-E to H2 and FCEVs possibleEconomic crises have decreased the number of initiativesIreland promotes EVsElectricity marketDemand growthSmall difference between peak demand & installed reserve capacityFew interconnections (2 more under construction)High dependency on imported fuelsOpportunities for EVsSecurity of transport energy supplyNighttime charging with excess wind powerAran islands pilot project: becoming self-sustainable with local energySecurity of supply is main difference to TexasThe general situation of an island like Ireland can be compared to Texas – both states have few interconnections to neighbouring grids and produce their own renewable energy. However, Texas’ focus is on energy autonomy while Ireland relies on imports for fuelling its power plants.Sources:US Energy Information Administration (2009):International Energy Agency (2011): Statistics: Ireland
60Co-Evolution – Impact on power generation Targeted Numbers of EVs can be accommodated without major grid and/ or production expansionChinaEuropeCanadaNorthern Europe2020 – Target2030 – Scenario20185 million EVs (≤ 7%)200 million EVs5 million EVs (2%)0,5 million EVs (≤1%)Need: 20 TWhNeed: 800 TWhNeed: 1,5 TWh0,5% of electricity demand in 200820% of electricity demand in 2008+ 8% on projected demand 20500,2% of projected electricity demand in 2018Details on the grid impact can be found in Annex A11.Sources:G4V (2010) : Parameter ManualNordic Energy Research. "Foresight Analysis – Nordic Strategies for Renewable Transport", Final Report, March 2010.CANMET Energy, Electric Vehicle Technology Roadmap for Canada, 2009.own calculationsThis Assessment only considers global values. Results can differ for local grids.Distribution grids in urban areas may experience overloads of assets first.For average European grids up to 40% EV penetration does not create problemsFor Beijing, 100% EV commuting could not be sustainedDetails in Annex A11
61Co-Evolution – Impact on power generation Chinese and North American grids may be first to have problems with rising EV penetrationChinese grids are already now straining to keep up with the increased demand due to the rapid economic growthPower shortages, especially in the densely populated areas, have to be expected30-60% difference in electricity demand between peak times and base load leaves room for off-peak EV chargingInvestments in North American grids have decreased over the yearsGrid assets are oldLocal distribution grids may not have the strength to supply EVsChallenges increase with rising penetrationQuick-charge at peak hours has the highest possible impact on grids and power generation capacityDaytime charging may require upgrades in local distribution systems in China and North AmericaRegulated charging is expected to prevent impact on base load power plantsDetails on the grid impact can be found in Annex A11.
62Co-Evolution – Impact on grids Renewable electricity and electric vehicles affect the stability of transmission and distribution gridsIntegration of distributed RES-E production and EVs influences stability of distribution gridsCommunication infrastructure needed for controlled chargingIntegration of large RES-E plants increases stress on transportation gridsExpected increase of off-shore wind power is a challengeEuropean and especially Nordic grids are well designed and prepared for transporting RES-EModernizing and increasing the strength and flexibility in the grid will take place also without the expected increase of EVs.Chinese grids will be strengthened with building extra high voltage transmission capacityGrid expansion in North America is costly – especially for transmission infrastructureDistributed generation with local grid reinforcement is a good first stepExploitation of resource-rich regions will be necessary for significant replacement of fossil fuels (northern Canada (wind), western US deserts (sun), offshore wind).
63Co-Evolution – Impact on Infrastructure The impact on grids and power production depends on time and method of chargingSlow charging and Battery swapping are preferred by DSOsBoth methods spread the load over a longer periodThe centralized storage capacity of battery swapping stations makes them interesting for ancillary services and demand responseFast Charging has highest potential to destabilize the gridTime of Charging impactDaytime, especially peak time charging will most likely result in overload in assets, especially in urban regions (demand centers, high population and vehicle density)Nighttime charging:The grid has transmission and distribution capacity availableThe use of “spinning reserve” on the grid may become more efficientRES-E that otherwise would not be fed in can be usedincreased use of base load power plants possible greater coal consumption increase in GHG-emissionsCharging strategies for smart grids may focus on using RES-E for chargingDetails on the grid impact can be found in Annex A11.
64Co-Evolution – Impact on power generation Regulated Charging is the first step to reduce the impact on grid stability and power generationPossible strategies:Preference for charging with RES-EEVs (+ smart charging) can increase uptake of RES-ESmart charging makes volatile RES-E a better business caseCharging in load valleys (with RES-E)Price difference of 0.6 ¥/ kWhAn accounting system and charging infrastructure are now being built in the Nordic Countries.Smart meters are put up as part of the "Introduction package" offered by "Better Place".Smart meters are already installed in large scale in Sweden and NorwayTransportDistrict heatingOther sectorsSource: European Parliament, 2010: Challenges for a European market for Electric Vehicles
65Supporting RES-E with EVs Technical requirements for grid support Technological Requirements for Co-EvolutionIntegration of RES-ESupporting RES-E with EVsFeed-In ofstored RES-EIntermittent storageDemand Side ManagementActive load managementancillary servicesBidirectionalSmart MeterPositive spinning reserveRegulatedChargingspinning reserveNegativeChargingwith RES-EAncillary servicesSmartGridsConventionalGridUnregulatedChargingFrequencystabilityConventionalGridICTAccountingsystemAdvanced ICTspinning reserveAdditionalThe golden ring shows today‘s situation: First charging infrastructure is being implemented and first trials with smart meters are in progress. Frequency and Voltage stability are guaranteed throughout the European grid but preferential charging with RES-E is not yet implemented and there are different accounting systems. Thus the second step is not yet achieved but today’s situation is still characterized by the transition.4 aspects (colors) have to be considered because they require different steps for their development. Each circle represents one common level and the aspects on this circle can not be regarded separately.The next slides show first, the simultaneous development from each circle to the next. After those slides the four aspects are regarded separately. The linkages are obvious.Integration of renewable energy sources (green)1. /2. If a good grid infrastructure is exists the grid can integrate a significant amount of renewable. No changes are needed.If the grid is weak, the requirements of the third circle have to be fulfilled early.3. circle: When the grid is not strong enough to integrate the energy it has to be upgraded.Smart Meters and Smart grids allow to regulate the load higher integration possible.4. circle: Enlargement of demand side management more load control load in times of a surplus of energy.Higher need of negative spinning reserve to balance the grid.5. Buffering of the surplus of energy and providing it back into the grid. Power plants with high emissions can be dismounted so that the power plant park will change with the time. To secure the energy support energy have to be stored.Technical requirements for grid support (yellow)1. For low penetration and integration rate no changes are required.2. With a higher integration of EV and RES the frequency and voltage stability have to be secured. Simple regulation can be integrated into RES power plants and EV working uncontrolled.3. Charging of EVs can be regulated to reduce overloads. The alternative is to upgrade the grid e.g. transformers, cables.4. High integration of RES leads to additional demand for spinning reserve. During a fault the grid can be supported with a load reduction of charging EV.5. If the energy production is to low and some parts of the grids have to be switched off, EVs can feed in their energy into the grid and avoid a large fault situation. complicated, has to be coordinated from a central station.Requirements from the grids point of view for a high integration of EV and PHEV (red). Necessary for an integration of EV into the grid.2. To allow that vehicles can load anywhere a overall accounting system e.g. for Europe should be established.A charging infrastructure has to be provided that everyone has a charging possibility.3. To coordinate the charging process for e.g. demand management, EV have to be able to communicate.4. Providing a charging infrastructure everywhere also with fast charging stations to enlarge the driving range.To provide spinning reserve advanced ICT is required because the charging process have to be regulated through a central control unit.5. A bidirectional connection to the grid is necessary to earn revenue for the vehicle/battery owner.Supporting RES with EV and PHEV (blue)A combination of all other points!2. Connection of EV and RES to receive the highest benefit for the reduction of pollution.3. A regulation of the charging unload the grid and a higher penetration of RES is possible.4. EV provide ancillary services to support RES.If EV charge in times of a surplus of energy from RES, a higher integration of RES is possible and the emissions of the whole power production is reduced..5. EV can store the surplus of energy and provided it back in high demand times.Providing of ancillary services to support RES.Regulated Charging(reducing overloads)VoltagestabilityChargingInfrastructureCommunication with Local Network StationsReduced loadduring faultArea wide charging stationsTechnical requirements for grid supportBidirectional charging infrastructureFeed-In during faultIntegration of EVs
66Conventional Grid Unregulated Charging Technological Requirements for Co-EvolutionToday‘s SituationConventional Grid Unregulated ChargingA strong conventional grid can take up small penetrations of EVs and RES-EEVs only charge unregulatedFirst trials with smart meters – not necessarily in combination with EVsItalySwedenNorwayDenmarkGermanyChinaFirst V2G trials in North AmericaRES-E integration depends on national electricity market’s regulationThe golden ring shows today‘s situation: The transition towards the next step. No region has crossed that line fully, yet. Some pilot projects lead the way. First charging infrastructure is being implemented and first trials with smart meters are in progress. Frequency and Voltage stability are guaranteed throughout the European grid but preferential charging with RES-E is not yet implemented and there are different accounting systems.
67Next Steps have begun Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution Charging with RES-ECharging InfrastructureAccounting SystemFrequency & Voltage StabilityIntegration of RES-EImplementation of distributed generation and local grid expansion in North AmericaSupporting RES-E with EVsCharging with RES-EReduces EV emissionsIncentive for increasing RES-E shareMajor RES-E bases will be constructedExtra High Voltage long-distance transmissionTransporting power to demand centersIntegration of EVsCharging infrastructureFirst implementation in Pilot ProjectsAccounting systemIs already being built in Nordic European Countries and in some Chinese pilot citiesTechnical requirements for grid supportFrequency stabilityVoltage stabilityBoth are guaranteed by implementing simple charging control systemsIncreased transmission efficiency and robustnessStability and efficiency of grid needed for further developmentIn the next step, tariff systems for preferential charging with RES-E have to be implemented in all three regions. An Accounting system for electric vehicles has to be developed. This development already has begun.Additional RES-E production has to be implemented and the stability of the grid has to be kept or ameliorated.Public charging infrastructure is needed for giving consumers a secure and comfortable mobility experience.The flags show pieces of information that are valid exclusively or especially for one region.
68Communication with local network stations Technological Requirements for Co-EvolutionNear FutureSmart GridsRegulated ChargingIntegration of RES-ESmart Meter & Smart GridsEnable more services for RES-E supportFirst trials in place in different regionsExtra High Voltage TransmissionFor transporting RES-E to demand centersSupporting RES-E with EVsRegulated ChargingHigher penetration/ share without major impactsIntegration of EVsInformation and Communication TechnologyFor better vehicle controlCommunication with local network stationsInformation and Communication stationsSmart MeterRegulated ChargingICTCommunication with local network stationsTechnical requirements for grid supportRegulated chargingReducing overloads of assetsLack of standard in China todayAutomatic Power DistributionDistributing power according to demandIn the near future the increasing integration of RES-E and electric vehicles requires „smart grid technologies“ that assure communication between the production and consumption of electricity. This communication enables first regulated charging.The flags show pieces of information that are valid exclusively or especially for one region.
69Phase 2 Development? Technological Requirements for Co-Evolution DSMActive load managementIntegration of RES-ENegative spinning reserve & Demand side managementSecure balance of RES-E production and consumptionSupporting RES-E with EVsActive load managementIncrease RES-E take-up in times of energy surplusAncillary services (unidirectional)Stabilizing the gridIntegration of EVsAdvanced Information and Communication TechnologyEnabling V2G servicesArea wide charging stationsInfrastructure covering large – medium citiesNegative SpinningReserveAncillary servicesReduced load during faultAdvanced ICTAdditional spinning reserveArea wide charging stationsTechnical requirements for grid supportAdditional spinning reserveSecure grid balanceReduced load during faultStabilizing the gridNot in place or allowed in China todayStrong smart gridManaging impacts and optimizing demand satisfactionThe flags show pieces of information that are valid exclusively or especially for one region.
70Full Co-Implementation Technological Requirements for Co-EvolutionFull Co-ImplementationPositive spinning reserveFeed-In of stored RES-EIntermittent storageIntegration of RES-EFeed-In of stored RES-EFor massive RES-E integrationPositive spinning reserveSupporting RES-E with EVsIntermittent storageFor high demand timesBidirectional ancillary servicesIntegration of EVsBidirectional charging infrastructureEnabling revenue for vehicle ownersTechnical requirements for grid supportFeed-In during faultFeed-In of stored Renewable ElectricityFor benefits of EV developmentBidirectional ancillary serviceFeed-In during faultFeed back to gridBidirectional charging infrastructureThe flags show pieces of information that are valid exclusively or especially for one region.
71Growth in renewable energy sources Technological Requirements for Co-EvolutionIntegration of RES-EToday’s penetration of renewable energy sources can be handled with the conventional grid. The Nordic and the Canadian grids are prepared for large penetrations of renewable energy sourcesFeed-in of stored renewable energyPositive spinning reserve (bidirectional)Distributed expansion of both RES-E and the grid will enable higher shares in North AmericaSmart Meter and Smart Grids enable the grid to provide more services to support RES. Extra-High Voltage (EHV) Transmission enhances electricity transmission from remote energy resources to demand centersDemand side management and spinning reserve secure the balance between consumption and production of RES. Strong Smart Grid balances consumption and production of RES-EThe Feed-in of stored energy allows a massive integration of RES-E.Negative spinning reserve (unidirectional)Demand side managementSmart GridsSmart MeterGrowth in renewable energy sourcesThe roadmap for the integration of RES-E is different for North American, European and Chinese electricity systems. While expansion of the production capacity in North America and Europe will be a distributed development, China will expand its capacity in large, centralized plants. Thus, “Western” grids will need communication and “intelligence” first, while Chinese grids will first be reinforced with added transmission capacity.Integration of renewable energy sources1. /2. If a good grid infrastructure is exists the grid can integrate a significant amount of renewable. No changes are needed.If the grid is weak, the requirements of the third circle have to be fulfilled early.3. circle: When the grid is not strong enough to integrate the energy it has to be upgraded.Smart Meters and Smart grids allow to regulate the load higher integration possible.4. circle: Enlargement of demand side management more load control load in times of a surplus of energy.Higher need of negative spinning reserve to balance the grid.5. Buffering of the surplus of energy and providing it back into the grid. Power plants with high emissions can be dismounted so that the power plant park will change with the time. To secure the energy support energy have to be stored.Distributed expansionEHV transmissionStrong Smart GridConventional gridVoltage/ frequency stabilityRising Penetration of EV and PHEV71
72Technical Requirements for grid support Technological Requirements for Co-EvolutionTechnical Requirements for grid supportTo support the grid for a rising penetration of RES-E and EVs, changes in the operating behavior might be necessary.Increased robustness and transmission efficiency are needed for a rising penetration of RES-E and EVs. To guarantee the frequency and voltage stability of the grid some simple regulations can be implemented in EVs.Regulated charging can avoid overloads of assets. Automatic power distribution is the foundation of distribution of power according to demand.Additional spinning reserve guarantees the balance of the grid. Strong Smart Grid manages the impact of RES-E and EVs and optimizes the demand satisfactionSpecial strategies during fault times support the fast stabilization of the grid.Feed-in during a faultAdditional spinning reserveReduce energy demand during a faultRegulated charging to reduce overloadsGrowth in renewable energy sourcesFrequency stabilityVoltage stabilityThe changes in the operating behavior of electric vehicles that are required for supporting the grid as EV and RES-E penetration increase will begin with a simple regulation of the charging process for guaranteeing the frequency and voltage stability of the grid. Further communication infrastructure in the grid will enable increasingly sophisticated regulation mechanisms which coordinate RES-E production and EV charging.Technical requirements for grid support (yellow)1. For low penetration and integration rate no changes are required.2. With a higher integration of EV and RES the frequency and voltage stability have to be secured. Simple regulation can be integrated into RES power plants and EV working uncontrolled.3. Charging of EVs can be regulated to reduce overloads. The alternative is to upgrade the grid e.g. transformers, cables.4. High integration of RES leads to additional demand for spinning reserve. During a fault the grid can be supported with a load reduction of charging EV.5. If the energy production is to low and some parts of the grids have to be switched off, EVs can feed in their energy into the grid and avoid a large fault situation. complicated, has to be coordinated from a central station.Feed back to gridIncreased robustnessAutomatic power distributionStrong Smart GridIncreased transmission efficiencyRising Penetration of EV and PHEV72
73Requirements for a high integration of EVs Technological Requirements for Co-EvolutionRequirements for a high integration of EVsTo integrate a significant amount of EV and PHEV, technical requirements have to be fulfilled.Charging infrastructure - bidirectionalAn accounting system and charging infrastructure are obligated as soon as possible. Both are currently being built in Nordic Countries.To control the vehicles a communication infrastructure has to be established.To provide V2G services more communication signals are required. With rising penetration of EV and RES-E, more charging/swapping infrastructure is needed.A bidirectional power connection is required to earn revenue for the vehicle owner.Area-wide charging infrastructureAdvanced ICTCommunication with local network stationsICTGrowth in renewable energy sourcesAccounting systemPilot Charging infrastructureAn accounting system and charging infrastructure are the first requirements for integrating electric vehicles. Both are build up in pilot projects in all regions. With an increasing penetration of both RES-E and EVs, communication infrastructure for production and demand is needed. Today it remains unclear where in the grid this infrastructure will be controlled. The penetration of charging infrastructure and communication technology and the availability of bi-directional charging points will increase as EV numbers increase.Requirements from the grids point of view for a high integration of EV and PHEV (blue). Necessary for an integration of EV into the grid.2. To allow that vehicles can load anywhere a overall accounting system e.g. for Europe should be established.A charging infrastructure has to be provided that everyone has a charging possibility.3. To coordinate the charging process for e.g. demand management, EV have to be able to communicate.4. Providing a charging infrastructure everywhere also with fast charging stations to enlarge the driving range.To provide spinning reserve advanced ICT is required because the charging process have to be regulated through a central control unit.5. A bidirectional connection to the grid is necessary to earn revenue for the vehicle/battery owner.Charging infrastructure in large-medium citiesInformation and Com- munication StationsConventional gridRising Penetration of EV and PHEV73
74Supporting RES with EVs Technological Requirements for Co-EvolutionSupporting RES with EVsElectrical vehicles profit not only from the collaboration with RES, they can support a high penetration of RES in the grid!To reduce emissions in the transport sector, the highest benefit is generated if EVs and PHEVs charge RES-E. In China, large RES-E bases are constructed and EHV inter-grid transmission is needed to transmit the large amount of RES-E In Europe and North America additional RES-E capacity will be distributed.Regulated charging enables higher penetration rates.Active load management and ancillary services can integrate energy from RES in times of an energy surplusIntermittent storage of RES-E for high demand times!Intermittent storage of energy from RESProviding ancillary services (bidirectional)Active load management storing energy from RESProviding ancillary services (unidirectional)Regulated chargingGrowth in renewable energy sourcesCharging with RES-EThe Co-Evolution of electric vehicles and renewable electricity will first be enabled by guaranteeing that EVs can be charged with renewable electricity. Thus, a sufficient amount of RES-E production needs to be constructed. Regulated charging could adapt the charging of electric vehicles to those times when there is an energy surplus from renewable sources. As this method becomes more sophisticated RES-E can be stored and fed back to the grid as demanded.Supporting RES with EV and PHEV (blue)A combination of all other points!2. Connection of EV and RES to receive the highest benefit for the reduction of pollution.3. A regulation of the charging unload the grid and a higher penetration of RES is possible.4. EV provide ancillary services to support RES.If EV charge in times of a surplus of energy from RES, a higher integration of RES is possible and the emissions of the whole power production is reduced..5. EV can store the surplus of energy and provided it back in high demand times.Providing of ancillary services to support RES.Major RE basesLong distance TransmissionUnregulated chargingRising Penetration of EV and PHEV74
75Policy frameworks are developing towards Co-Evolution Opportunities for Co-EvolutionPolicy frameworks are developing towards Co-EvolutionNorth AmericaDevelopment most likely via individual projectsPilot or communal projects implement and test first charging infrastructure and V2GAccounting systems will be put in place by individual ISOsPublic-private partner-ships are key to getting the ball rollingInitiatives most likely on State/ Province or local levelOntario: FIT, EV target, want to be coal-free by 2015EuropePolitical framework for future of transportation promoting the use of RE for fuelsSocietal frameworkEmergent rethinking of vehicle ownership modelsWidespread availability of ICT infrastructureHigh share of RES-EExperience with EV deployment in NorwayChinaThe use of RES-E for EVs is a recognized concept in ChinaGovernment policies support both EVs and RES-EAutomotive Industry Restructuring and Revitalization Plan encompasses grid requirements and standards for charging stations and market regulation for EV producersChina has set ambitious targets for increasing the installed power of all renewable sources (Annex A9)
76Co-Evolution faces cultural and economic barriers Challenges for Co-EvolutionCo-Evolution faces cultural and economic barriersNorth AmericaHigh costs per capita of nation-wide infra-structure developmentNation wide bi-directional smart grid development almost impossible.Federal initiatives unlikely, apart from funding for pilot projectsMandatory GHG emission reduction targets unlikely in the short/ medium termPremise for mandatory RES-E targetsWithout these targets, large scale integration of RES-E unlikelyEuropePolitical framework for future of transportationIntroducing new transportation patterns to citiesInternalization of external costsSocietal frameworkNew concept of TransportUncertainty of EV-acceptanceRES-E storage in EVs not planned for near futureConventional reserve capacity preferredChinaChina has traditionally opted for large scale, easily regulated and centralized systems, making regional/ local RE-EV interaction a difficult concept.Plans and data for implementing the use of RES-E for EVs from any involved parties are not reliable or publicindustry and policy are highly “siloed”Auto manufacturers, power companies, battery companies and the grid companies do not make up a traditional “community”Communication between these parties has not been simpleGHG emission reduction or RES-E targets will only be discussed in North America if economic situation improves.
77Policies from one region might be interesting options for others Context – Needed Policies for Co-EvolutionPolicies from one region might be interesting options for othersNorth AmericaMandatory national GHG emission reductions targetsEncourage Targets for RES-E share and EVsFederal feed-in tariffs for RES-EMore likely on State levelContinue and expandRebates and subsidies for EV’sFeed-in tariffs for RES-EV2G project developmentHarmonization of standardsInformation campaignsEuropeHarmonization of Grid Codes for comparable conditions for new RES-E production across EuropeHarmonization of vehicle and charging station characteristicsEurope-wide EV support policiesTrials for charging with RES-E in pilot projectsChinaPercentage of OEM’s fleet having to be EVsParallel: energy providers offering lower carbon fuel over timeCharging incentivesLower price for nighttime chargingPricing scheme for feeding power back to the grid and compensation for additional battery cyclesInfrastructure incentivesMaking charging and service options availableFinancing solutions for large scale deploy-mentCharging and service infrastructure is expensive but absolutely vital for EVs. One charging post requires ¥ 100k, an 8-vehicle charging station requires investments of about ¥ 10 million.Sources:Wen
78Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options Two-phase long-term policy approach needed for large scale Co-Evolution of EVs and RES-EPrepare for EV’sInfrastructure and standardizationPilot fleets in niche markets for learning effects and cost reductionsProvide long term perspective to industryIncrease RES-E productionPriority access for renewablesFeed-in tariffs or premiumsRPS or obligationsCap and tradeGrid stabilityEnsure balanced grid developmentCoordinate technical and institutional effortsSmart grids and active load management/ regulated chargingLong distance transmissionPhase 1MarketPreparationDetails on two-phase roadmaps for the three regions can be found in Annex A12. In the following different policy options are presented with their strengths and weaknesses.Phase 1 should be aimed at gaining experience. Learning effects which are mainly influenced by accumulated production numbers enable vehicle OEM’s to produce vehicles at lower costs. Also in phase 1, the different needed standards should be defined AND IMPLEMENTED. The shape of the plugs used for charging EV’s for instance as well as the voltage level / frequency should be defined. Also, the standard to which the “smart grid” should comply, as well as appliances (chargers) that are attached to this smart grid. Since in phase 1 (roughly between now and 2015) EV’s will not be on the road in significant numbers, the advanced V2G (vehicle to grid) services mentioned earlier are not needed yet.3rd column: Priority access to prevent night charging of EV with coal-based baseload powerPhase 2 is aimed at using the increased number of EV’s to achieve not only co-evolution / co-existence, but also additional benefit. For this, the advanced V2G services should be in place. This is what “ increase system integration” means in this context.[Martine: suggest to change latter sentence to: with active load management (Phase IV in Ch 4 of report, several benefits can already be gained without V2G]Optional information:An interesting parallel might be to briefly mention the abundance of adapters needed to fuel LPG powered vehicles in Europe. This has come about since different countries started using different gas connections without first defining a standard connection. The end result is that LPG cars from the Netherlands are incompatible with the filling nozzles in Belgium for instance. And since all the necessary investments have already been made, nobody (car drivers, OEM’s and fuel station operators) is willing to change anything about this.Increase deployment of EV to reach mass marketsIncrease system integration to enable higher use of EV and RES-EPhase 2Deployment78
79Regulatory framework Phase 1 Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy optionsRegulatory frameworkPhase 1Emission targets for electricity production and vehicle fleets warrant other support policiesTargets for the deployment of electric vehicles are an incentive for first deploymentsStandards for vehicles and infrastructure provide security for manufacturersConsequenceLegitimate base for further policiesOpposition from the people (North America)FeasibilityFeasible in all regionsEmission targets are more easily implemented for electricity than for existing vehicle fleetsStandards have to be based on technological consideration and have to be implemented quicklyDetails on two-phase roadmaps for the three regions can be found in Annex A12.
80Build-up of infrastructure Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy optionsBuild-up of infrastructurePhase 1Governments support Electric Vehicles by building up charging infrastructureConsequenceGood network possible also for rural areasCosts for societyFeasibilityMay be feasible in ChinaHighly unlikely in Europe and North America However, subsidies for the construction of new charging infrastructure are feasibleDetails on two-phase roadmaps for the three regions can be found in Annex A12.
81Coupling Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy optionsCoupling Renewable Energy and Electric VehiclesHard CouplingElectricity for charging electric vehicles is coupled to the absolute additional RES-E share in the electricity mixCap and TradeElectricity production or the deployment of vehicles have to fulfill emission targets (cap)Any additional demand for electricity or additional deployment of vehicles has to be provided from carbon-neutral sources or has to be compensated by GHG emissions reduction measures applied to other emitters that are part of the system (trade)Manufacturers’ investments in RES-EVehicle manufacturers can count their electric vehicles as zero-emission vehicles if they finance new RES-E productionGrid Stabilization BonusSystem Operators pay this bonus for plugged-in electric vehicles that can either provide demand side management or ancillary servicesTax Exemptions for Charging RES-EElectric vehicles are only eligible for tax exemptions if they charge RES-ERe-Investing electricity tax from charging currentDetails on two-phase roadmaps for the three regions can be found in Annex A12.Six policy options for promoting the Co-Evolution of electric vehicles and electricity from renewable sources were suggested in the RETRANS project.
82Tax Exemptions for Charging RES-E Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy optionsTax Exemptions for Charging RES-EPhase 1Vehicles are eligible for tax exemptions if they charge RES-EExemptions from annual vehicle/ motor/ circulation taxesConsequenceAdditional RES-ECost benefits for EV owners as an incentiveIncreased willingness to plug in?CostsAdvanced billing system and separate metering neededFeasibilityFeasible for low penetrations of EVs.Phase-out for higher penetrationsEV owners have to be able to exclusively charge RES-EFeasible in all regionsTax Exemptions for Charging Electricity from Renewable Energy Sources are granted only for those vehicles which are indeed powered by renewable electricity. This condition can be added to the sets of criteria that are in place for choosing those vehicles that are eligible for benefits today. Tax Exemptions are a policy option that is feasible in all three regions. However, this option needs a special RES-E charging tariff for identifying the amounts charged. Especially in North America, such indirect fiscal incentives are likely to be publicly accepted.
83Re-Investing Electricity Tax Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy optionsRe-Investing Electricity TaxPhase 1The electricity tax from the traction current is invested in additional RES-EConsequenceAdditional RES-ESpecial electricity tariff/ separate metering for EVs neededMarket distortion in deregulated marketsFeasibilityFeasible in all regionsIn North America this option might be possible only within one interconnection-areaRe-Investing the Electricity Tax from the Charging Current into new renewable electricity production plants is only feasible if electricity taxes exist and amount to a significant contribution for new renewable electricity. As with tax exemptions for charging renewable electricity, this option requires a special charging tariff for electric vehicles. It is feasible in all three regions. Deregulated electricity markets in North America and Europe may be distorted. In North America this option may first be restricted to single interconnection areas.
84Hard Coupling Phase 1 Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options Coupling electricity for EVs and absolute RES-E TargetsAdditional EVs have to be met with additional RES-E capacityConsequenceEVs powered by pure additional RES-ECosts (user & society)FeasibilityUnlikely for North America, because profitability is key for public acceptance of both EVs and RES-EFeasible for Europe but concerns exist that this option may slow down EV or RES-E deploymentIn China – based on policies until today – this option is unlikely. However, if RES-E production is increased significantly and charging business models are set up, Hard Coupling may become feasibleHard Coupling means that the electricity which is needed for charging new electric vehicles has to be generated from new renewable energy sources. Thus, the amount of electricity that is produced from these sources increases according to the increase in electric vehicle deployment. In Europe this measure is feasible but raises concerns that the development of renewable electricity or electric vehicles may be slowed down. Increased costs for the society are expected. In North America and China this option is unlikely because both regions have not even implemented Renewable electricity targets. In North America profitability is key for public acceptance of EVs and RES-E which also is a barrier for this option. The regulated Chinese electricity market would facilitate the implementation of this option.
85Manufacturers‘ investments in RES-E Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy optionsManufacturers‘ investments in RES-EPhase 1EVs are considered Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) in return for investments in renewable electricityOEMs invest in additional renewable electricity production (depending on MJ/km per sold EV)DSOs invest energy tax for traction current in additional RES-EConsequenceAdditional RES-ECan lead to more emissions from ICEVs – Coupling to fleet emission standards!Conflicts of interests possibleFeasibilityFeasible in Europe, has to be introduced for all countriesThe vertically integrated electricity markets in China and North America may impede implementation (if OEMs are new players in the market)For more information see Annex slides section A14.Vehicle manufacturers invest in new renewable electricity (equalling the amount their EVs are going to use) and can then consider their electric vehicles as zero-emission vehicles. However, emission targets for manufacturers’ fleets have to be in force first. Else, this option might result in higher emissions from remaining conventional vehicles. This option might be feasible in all regions. The vertically integrated electricity sectors in China and North America impede the market entry for OEMs as RES-E producers. Cooperation with the grid companies may be possible. In China, private investments in RES-E are not encouraged. A political change would be needed. Since the electricity mix in China depends on governmental decisions, it has to be ensured that the new renewable capacity is used. In Europe, this option is feasible but has to be implemented on the European level.
86Cap and Trade Phase 2 Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options A Cap and Trade system for fleet emissions per vehicle manufacturerComparable to the ETS and other C&T systems, emission targets will be adjusted over timeEarnings from the emission certificates trading can be invested into new RES-EConsequenceAdditional RES-E / CCSNeeds strong regulatory frameworkTakes effect only on new vehiclesFeasibilityFeasible in all countriesLess likely in North America and China because national Cap and Trade systems for GHG emissions do not exist yet.A Cap and Trade system that couples electric vehicles and electricity from renewable sources sets emission targets for the electricity sector (as in the European Trading Scheme) and the transport sector. As this emission target becomes stricter, the rights to emit have to be traded between the stakeholders. This option may be feasible as a Phase 2 policy option. National or international emission mitigation targets are a premise for Cap and Trade systems. If these are introduced in Phase 1, Cap and Trade schemes that encompass the electricity and the transportation sector are feasible in all regions. In North America emission mitigation targets have to be enforced. In Europe, emissions from electricity production are already included in a Cap and Trade scheme. The integration of the transport sector into that scheme may be possible, the details of the implementation remain unclear. In China this option is feasible, it is feared that such a scheme may slow down the economic development of vehicle manufacturers.
87Grid Stabilization Bonus Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy optionsGrid Stabilization BonusPhase 2EVs receive a bonus payment for plugging in and thus being available for storage and feed-in of volatile RES-EConsequenceBetter RES-E utilizationStable gridsAdvanced metering and implementation (billing!) neededFeasibilityThis option is only feasible, if advanced metering (bidirectional!) is already installed on a large scaleProfitability is key for successful implementationFirst Countries: Italy, Sweden, Norway ?The Grid Stabilization Bonus is paid for by DSOs who reward owners of electric vehicles for plugging-in and making their vehicles available for ancillary services. This option is only feasible if smart grid and bidirectional charging technology is available. Depending on the regional development, this option may become feasible in Phase 2 in all regions. This option is a good incentive for encouraging EV owners to plug-in.
88Co-Evolution – Feasibility of policy options A policy framework for the transition towards a sustainable transport sector is in process in EuropeToday – Current directivesIncrease of RE-share in Primary Energy mix10% share of RE in land-based transport by 2020Future – White Paper on future transportFocus on CitiesNew Concept of mobility – Systems’ approachLong term objectives, legal & regulatory framework, open standards, interoperabilityRevision of the Directive on Energy TaxationInternalize externalities & eliminate distortionary subsidiesReplacing CO2-standards with energy efficiency standardsSpeed limitsRevision of driving license directiveSources:European Commission, 2009: Climate and Renewable Energy PackageEuropean Commission, 2009: Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sourcesEuropean Commission, 2011: White Paper. Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area
89Penetration rate of electric vehicles Co-Evolution – Technology RoadmapLocal integration of EVs and RES-EFirst Smart GridsLocal grid expansionControlled chargingAncillary services (bidirec-tional)?Unregulated chargingControlled charging Further RES-E integrationActive load management Ancillary services Charging with RES-EStorage of RES-E Ancillary services (bidirectional)Urban EV deploymentFurther RES-E integrationTransmission grid expansionControlled chargingLoad management for swapping stationsAncillary servicestimePenetration rate of electric vehicles
90Two Phase Development for Co-Evolution Co-Evolution – Two Phase RoadmapTwo Phase Development for Co-EvolutionPhase 1 (Today – 2015):Market preparationPilot projects and other incentives for RES-E and EVsCost reduction and quality improvementStandardizationPhase 2 (Future):Measures aiming at increased deployment and system integrationCooperation between all actors is keyThis two phase development and its stakeholders are presented for each region on the following slides.Details on two-phase roadmaps for the three regions can be found in Annex A12.
91North America – Consumer demand drives Co-Evolution Co-Evolution – Two Phase RoadmapNorth America – Consumer demand drives Co-EvolutionActorsGovernment/ Regulators – federal support unlikelyElectricity sector – nationwide bidirectional smart grid highly unlikelyVehicle manufacturers – production capacity from conventional manufacturers neededPhase 1:Local changeImplementation of RES-E and EV support policiesDeployment targets for RES-E and EVsPilot projects in public-private-partnershipsIncreasingly strict national and local fuel efficiency standards and consumer demand drive EV productionGrid reinforcement and charging infrastructure develop alongside EV deploymentPublic information campaignsPhase 2:Increasing demand drives EV deployment and infrastructure changeUnbundling of the electricity sector is promoted for easier market penetrationV2G pilot projectsConsumer demand for V2G and FITDetails on two-phase roadmaps for the three regions can be found in Annex A12.Today consumer demand for electric vehicles already surpasses manufacturers‘ production capacities. Thus, a market driven development for an increase in EV deployment is most likely.Both electric vehicles and renewable electricity will be first implemented regionally. Thus, renewable sources will not necessarily be available for local EVs but have to fuel EVs that are deployed elsewhere. However, the local implementations will drive grid reinforcements there. Public information campaigns can help changing opinions about renewable electricity and electric vehicles.In Phase 2 market entry for new renewable electricity producers may become easier. Consumer demand for Vehicle to Grid services and Feed-In Tariffs may lead to new legislation.
92Actors for Co-Evolution Co-Evolution – ActorsActors for Co-EvolutionOEMsMarketing and information campaignsIncreasing productionGovernment/ RegulatorsUnbundling of electricity marketMandatory targets for GHG reductionElectricity sectorFacilitate RES-E and EV connection to the gridThe North American electricity market is still quite vertically integrated so there is still little distinction between utilities, TSO’s and DSO’s. Thus, the electricity sector represents one group of stakeholders that have similar and different interests depending on their business.
93Europe – Adaptation of existing policies leads to Co-Evolution Co-Evolution – Two Phase RoadmapEurope – Adaptation of existing policies leads to Co-EvolutionActorsGovernments/ European institutionsVehicle ManufacturersSystem OperatorsUtilitiesPhase 1:Vehicle charges and taxes are revised (external costs and environmental performance criteria)Further growth of RES-E production – Continuation and revision of RES-E support policiesHarmonization of standards across EuropeCoordinated network development and system integrationV2G pilot projectsInformation campaignsPhase 2:Full internalization of external costsFurther GHG emission reduction policiesEurope-wide charging infrastructureDetails on two-phase roadmaps for the three regions can be found in Annex A12.The most important steps in Phase 1 will be the harmonization of standards across Europe and the coordination of support policies and regulation for system integration. The full internalization of external costs is an ambitious goal for Phase 2 as well as Europe-wide harmonized charging infrastructure.
94Actors for Co-Evolution Co-Evolution – ActorsActors for Co-EvolutionOEMsEVs lowering total fleet emissionsPoliticsFiscal/ financial incentivesHard couplingDSOsSmart meteringEV earnings for new RES?UtilitiesSystem stabilizing bonus for plugged EVs
95China – Rapid production increases drive Co-Evolution Co-Evolution – Two Phase RoadmapChina – Rapid production increases drive Co-EvolutionActorsGovernmentVehicle ManufacturersElectricity SectorPhase 1:Nationwide standardizationDevelopment of low-speed low-cost EVs for the mass marketConstruction of major RES-E bases for a 25% share in the electricity mixIncrease long-distance transmission capacity and develop smart grid technologyProvide incentives to both manufacturers and private consumers, and attract investment from private equityPhase 2:Long-distance transmission of electricity from remote resourcesImproved batteries make EVs competitive with conventional carsNationwide availability of charging infrastructure and V2GDetails on two-phase roadmaps for the three regions can be found in Annex A12.In China, nationwide standardization is most important for further EV development. The electricity sector has to quickly catch up on RES-E production and ist transmission.In Phase 2 bidirectional charging infrastructure for vehicles-to-grid services becomes increasingly important for managing both increasing production and increasing demand.
96Actors for Co-Evolution Co-Evolution – ActorsActors for Co-EvolutionManufacturersIncrease product qualityGovernmentStandardizationIncentives for Manufacturers, consumers and system operatorsElectricity SectorHigher RES-E shareEnhance transmission and distribution capabilityThe Chinese electricity market is vertically integrated thus there is little distinction between utilities, TSO’s and DSO’s. Thus, the electricity sector represents one group of stakeholders that have similar interests and who have to cope with governmental requirements.
97Chapters Table of Contents Context Regional Economic and Transport-related BackgroundElectric VehiclesRES-E and GridOpportunities & Challenges for Co-EvolutionConclusions
98ConclusionsConsistent long term policy is required for stimulating large scale introduction of EVs and Co-Evolution with RES-EProvide security of investment for car industry and infrastructure providers (Security of the existing tax exemptions )Mandatory targets for EV-numbers and RES-E shareStandards developmentInvestments in infrastructureInvolve a variety of actorsCoordinate network development and system integration to allow high penetrations of EV and RES-EThis is already taking place in the national Nordic TSO's and in the context of ENTSO-EGrid reinforcement and upgradeRET integrationCoordinate system integration among grids and vehicle/battery manufacturers
99Actions for Co-Evolution‘s stakeholders ConclusionsActions for Co-Evolution‘s stakeholdersGovernment and regulatorsDetermine regulatory and market solutions that can mobilize private sector investmentsDetermine regulatory solutions that link EV deployment and RES-EInfrastructure strategy should reflect regional needs and conditionsPlan for evolution in regulation along with technology developmentInvest in research, development and demonstration (RD&D) that address system- wide and broad-range sectoral issues, and that provide insights into behavioral aspects of EV use and RES-E charging.Lead education on the value of EVs with respect to environmental benefits and lessening fear of performance restrictionsInternational governmental organizationsCo-ordinate international standardization issues for cross-national compatibilitySupport the RD&D of EV system solutions for developing countries through targeted analysis, roadmapping exercises and capacity building.Support international collaboration on and dissemination of RD&D on EVs and infrastructure, including business and regulatory experiences.
100Actions for Co-Evolution’s stakeholders ConclusionsActions for Co-Evolution’s stakeholdersTSOs/ DSOsHelp develop business models that ensure all stakeholders and customers share risks, costs and benefits.Promote adoption of real-time energy-usage information and pricingCo-operate with OEMs for interoperability standards and post-installation supportUtilitiesSystem stabilizing bonus for plugged EVs that provide flexibility to increase use of variable generation?Co-operation with regulators to facilitate implementation of RES-E and EV connection to the gridOEMsInternational strategy and standards for interoperability of system components thus reducing risk of technology obsolescenceAddress concerns with technology system integration, long-term post-installation support and security and reliabilityAggressive marketing and information campaigns for EVsOEMs = Vehicle manufacturers and charging stations manufacturers
101North America & Europe Conclusions Cities and urban areas will be breeding grounds for EV deployment and charging infrastructureEV expansion to rural areas is highly unlikely in the medium term due to infrastructure and social acceptance issuesIn Phase 1 EVs will not feed back power to the grid outside of pilot projectsNo problems arise in European grids for the projected low shares of EVsMeasures for increased deployment:Support policies (subsidies, tax benefits and other support policies)Battery cost reduction / improved performancePublic information campaignsMeasures for system integrationGet ISO’s involved in pilot projects or local development projectsGrid upgrades and smart grid development to allow for bi-directionality and regulationRegulate grid expansion as a part of a feed-in tariff program (eg. suggested for Province of Ontario)Support policies for electric vehicles include: subsidies for acquisition (might be combined with scrappage incentives), tax benefits (on registration fee or annual taxes), traffic privileges, insurance benefits, access to transport services.Support policies for renewable electricity might continue or be expanded. However, if technologies reach market parity, support policies might only take effect on their interaction with electric vehicles (e.g. benefits for participating in smart grids).
102ConclusionsChina – Co-Evolution requires changes in renewable electricity and electric vehicles deploymentBoth grid and battery technology require technological innovation in China in order to support the integration of EV and RECharging models must be matched with RE grid interaction models in order to take advantage of clean energy in EVs, and suitable business models need to be developedEmphasis should be on increasing overall RE on the gridAt this time, China is focusing on large-scale RE including wind and solar projects, with little attention paid to distributed RE generation.Private power plants are not approved in China at this time. All power must enter the grid and be downloaded from the grid.There should also be an emphasis on increasing population of EVs – to the scale of millions of vehicles.It is unlikely that smart grid will be economically viable or technologically useful without such large numbers.Incentives are needed for both vehicles and grid companies in order to attain a critical mass of vehicles and smart grid participants.
103Comparison of regions Characteristics ConclusionsComparison of regions CharacteristicsNorth AmericaLow population density: Grid expansion costlyFew instruments for furthering RES-E expansionEV deployment may stay marginal for longer: Focus on cities!EuropeIncreasingly distrib-uted generation (RES-E) and load (EVs) challenge gridCommunication technology needed for higher penetra-tion of EVs and RES-ENordic Countries may achieve Co-Evolution more easily (most RES-E and EVs)ChinaDistributed genera-tion not encouragedNew RES-E in large facilities require transmission!EV deployment concentrated on public institutions and load centersMarket for low-performance EVs in rural areasExperience with electric scooters has shown that passenger vehicles remain important status symbols in rural areas
104Policy Recommendations by Region ConclusionPolicy Recommendations by RegionNorth AmericaIncentives and Policies on State/ Province level most likelyFiscal (indirect) incentives likely to be publicly acceptedFacilitating market entrance of EVs and RES-E is key to Co-EvolutionProfitability is most important accept-ance factorTargets are a premiseEuropeNational & European policies have to be coordinatedStandardization is an important issue for providing security for manufacturersAll discussed policy options are feasible on European or National levelChinaCentralized statecan more easily implement regulatory policy optionsPremise for many options is the development of emission reduction and RES-E targetsMore information on policies that concern the deployment of electric vehicles can be found in Annex A5.
105Comparison of regions Lessons learned so far ConclusionsComparison of regions Lessons learned so farOutcome of pilot projects:EVs alone cannot solve traffic problems – an integrated approach and a new concept of transport are necessaryUser acceptance:EVs for a set purpose are well acceptedBusiness cases:Car-sharing/ Mobility Partnerships for commutingUsage patterns:Local solutions for traffic problems and personal mobilityInfluence of RES-E deployment and potentialPotential for RES-E not fully exhausted yetSustainability of RES-E for EVs absolutely vital for ecological benefitsElectricity tariffs that guarantee RES-E for charging EVs are neededMore information about pilot projects in the three regions can be found in Annex A4.Mobility Partnerships are Packages where the acquisition or leasing of an electric vehicle makes the owner eligible for reduced fares on public transport, rental cars, parking spaces and other – locally defined – benefits. Plug-and-Ride offers from railway companies for electric vehicles are one example of a Mobility Partnership with two stakeholders.Finding local solutions for traffic problems and personal mobility goes hand in hand with the mentioned mobility partnerships. Depending on local circumstances (urban/rural, size of the city, availability of public transportation ...) usage patterns (distances, usage frequency etc.) differ and different bundles will be needed. Depending on the usage patterns different EV models may be necessary.
106Comparison of regions Lessons learned so far ConclusionsComparison of regions Lessons learned so farPolicy options & public acceptanceAn uninformed public does not accept EV promotion “from above”Information campaigns on the benefits of EVs neededIncluding financial, fiscal and non-monetary benefits for usersPolicies furthering EVs and RES-E have to be adapted to regional characteristicsImportant regional differences between policies in Phase 1Possible synergies between regions in Phase 2Skepticism regarding Co-EvolutionLow RES-E shares reduce benefitsTechnological and regulatory hindrances in foreground
107Follow-up work Conclusions Analysis of the outcome of the different pilot projectsWhich co-operations were fruitful and whyWhat makes EVs successfulExperience with Co-EvolutionAppraisal of technical / grid-related boundaries and barriers to Co-EvolutionImpact Assessment of policy optionsAs more and more pilot projects worldwide advance an analysis of the success factors of electric vehicles will be necessary. Why were EVs accepted and used? Were the users satisfied? Which companies and organizations worked together and what were the success factors in this cooperation? What business models and tariff structures were introduced? Which experiences were made regarding the Co-Evolution with renewable electricity? In what scales were smart grids or V2G involved?From this analysis best practices can be derived which again can help promoting EVs, RES-E and their Co-Evolution.Technical and grid- or system-related boundaries and barriers for Co-Evolution have to be appraised per region or even on smaller scales. This appraisal is needed for developing feed-in and charging strategies that help stabilizing the grid.An impact assessment of the suggested policy options is needed for giving policy makers a help for prioritizing these options.
108Table of Annexes A1 – Acronyms A2 – References A3 – List of subsidies and incentives for EVsA4 – Pilot projects in the three regionsA5 – Policies concerning EV deploymentA6 – List of available EV modelsA7 – StandardsA8 – Renewable Energy policiesA9 – Expected growth in electricity sectorA10 – Revenue from Ancillary services for EVsA11 – Impact of EVs on grids and productionA12 – Two phase development of Co-EvolutionA13 – Road infrastructure
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