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Estimation of unrecorded employment using administrative data Ágota Scharle Bálint Szabó Ministry of Finance 6.12.2007 Budapest.

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Presentation on theme: "Estimation of unrecorded employment using administrative data Ágota Scharle Bálint Szabó Ministry of Finance 6.12.2007 Budapest."— Presentation transcript:

1 Estimation of unrecorded employment using administrative data Ágota Scharle Bálint Szabó Ministry of Finance Budapest

2 2 Outline Aim and estimation strategy Data sources Main results Unresolved issues and further work

3 Aim and estimation strategy  estimate unrecorded employment  assume that LFS data captures {all employment}  compare to Pension insurance captures {recorded employment}  extension to Augusztinovics-Köllő 2007

4 4 Data sources LFS  Quarterly survey of Hungarians aged  About 60 thousand observations  ILO definition of employment  Age, sex, occupation, region, etc Pension records [ONYF]  Sample of administrative records on total population  about 140 thousand observations of adults aged  pension contribution as employee or self-employed  Age, sex, occupation (employees only), region Both: for the years and panel

5 5 Data sources 2 LFS Annual average of quarterly data 6 main categories of type of employment: employee (2) or self-employed (4) average of those working on reference week in 4 quarters Pension records [ONYF] 28 categories by type of employment contract length of contract (days) average employed population: total days/366

6 Main results: employment rate

7 men all ages rate higher for over 50

8 women on maternity or over 60

9 aged over 50

10 in agriculture or urbanised areas

11 11 in services to households (employees)

12 Benedek Dóra - Újraelosztás és mikroszimuláció 12 Unresolved issues … Robustness checks:  Definition of employment (OEP data?)  Weights  Grouping of occupations Cleaning admin data

13 …and further work  time series for  decomposing changes from 2001 to 2004  multivariate analysis for sub-regions?  use wage data in admin records  use panel nature of admin records (flows into pension by occupation, flows into/from AMK)  ?

14 Thank you for your attention.

15 Age distribution in samples


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