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Presented to: MWCOG By: Roger Schaufele Date: 09 April 2008 Federal Aviation Administration General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025.

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Presentation on theme: "Presented to: MWCOG By: Roger Schaufele Date: 09 April 2008 Federal Aviation Administration General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025."— Presentation transcript:

1 Presented to: MWCOG By: Roger Schaufele Date: 09 April 2008 Federal Aviation Administration General Aviation Forecast Overview

2 2 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 Agenda Background Historic National Trends Forecast Overview DC Area Trends and Forecast

3 3 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 Background What do we forecast? Airline traffic and capacity General Aviation activity Aircraft operations Done at both national and individual airport level What are the forecasts used for? Facility Planning ATC Staffing Regulatory analysis FAA Budgets Investment Analysis Baseline Comparisons for Airport Master Plans

4 4 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 General Aviation Trends Modest growth in fleet and hours –Total fleet growth of 6.4% (13,500 A/C) Turbo Jet A/C up 41% to 11,000; Piston A/C flat –Hours up 3.1% Turbo Jets 66% higher; Pistons (including rotorcraft) down 13.3% Activity down –Ops at FAA and Contract Towers down 16.9% –Instrument Ops down 19.5% –En Route A/C Handled down 5.1% Sales and Deliveries growing since 2003 –Jet sales up 83%; piston sales up 62% –Jet deliveries up 112%; piston deliveries up 37%

5 5 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 GA Forecast Overview Growth in high end of market –Total fleet is 27% higher by 2025 (61,000 increase) Piston A/C (including rotorcraft) up 15,000 (0.5% per year) Turbo Jet A/C up 18,500 (5.6% per year) –Biz Jets increase by 10,500 (3.8% per year) –VLJs total 8,145 by 2025 –Hours are 70% higher in 2025 (3% per year) Turbo Jets grow 7.6% per year Pistons (including rotorcraft) grow 1.1% per year –Operations growth reflects hours growth Tower operations increase 26% by 2025 (1.3% per year) En Route aircraft handled up 68% (3% per year)

6 6 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 General Aviation Fleet Actual Forecast Avg. Annual Growth Piston: 0.5% Turbine: 3.7% Exp, LSA, Oth:3.0%

7 7 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 General Aviation Flight Hours Actual Forecast Avg. Annual Growth Piston: 1.1% Exp, LSA, Oth: 4.1% Non VLJ Turbine: 2.8% VLJs:28.4%

8 8 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 Tower Operations Avg. Annual Growth Commercial:2.7% Gen Aviation:1.3% Military:0.0% Actual Forecast

9 9 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 DC Area Trends

10 10 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 DC General Aviation Trends Activity down overall –GA operations down 12.2%; slightly more than total ops Largest declines at DCA, HEF, and MTN Itinerant down 30% while local up 7.7% Biz Jet Activity up 7.5%; peaked in 2005 –IAD up 112%; DCA down 95% –Share of GA activity increased from 8.6% to 10.5% –DCA had most activity in 2000 (40% of total); IAD in 2007 (65.8% of total)

11 11 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 DC Area Tower Operations

12 12 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 DC Area General Aviation Operations

13 13 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 General Aviation Biz Jet Operations

14 14 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 DC Area Tower Forecast Activity up 42% by 2025 (2% annual growth) –Slightly higher than national growth Commercial growth 2.4% per year GA growth of 1.5% per year Exceed 2000 peak in 2014

15 15 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 DC Area Tower Operations Avg. Annual Growth Commercial: 2.4% General Aviation: 1.5% Military: 0.0% Actual Forecast

16 16 Federal Aviation Administration 09 April 2008 Things to look for Congestion – will it be as bad as in 2007? Environmental concerns will continue to be in the forefront of aviation debates. Strength of demand given high oil prices and a slowing economy. Success of on-demand air taxi operators and use of VLJs.


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