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Climate Change – The Science – The Solutions. PROGRAM: 9:00Registration and chat 9:30 - 10:30 Dr. Graeme Pearman, Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Change – The Science – The Solutions. PROGRAM: 9:00Registration and chat 9:30 - 10:30 Dr. Graeme Pearman, Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Change – The Science – The Solutions

2 PROGRAM: 9:00Registration and chat 9:30 - 10:30 Dr. Graeme Pearman, Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research from 1992 to 2002. Climate Change - Science, Society and Us 10:30 - 11:00Questions and Discussion 11:00Morning tea and further discussions 11:30 - 12:30Prof Neville Nicholls, ARC Professorial Fellow, Monash University, Lead Author IPCC Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes 12:30 - 1:00Questions and Discussion 1:00 - 1:40Lunch and discussion 1:40 - 2:40Prof Peter Seligman: Melbourne Energy Institute, Author, Australian Sustainable Energy by the numbers. A Sustainable Energy Plan for Australia 2:40 - 3:15 Questions and Discussion

3 Dr. Graeme Pearman: Climate Change - Science, Society and Us Chief of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research from 1992 to 2002. Graeme left CSIRO in 2004 to become a private consultant contracting to both private and public sector organisations and Adjunct Senior Research Fellow with the School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University. In 2007, he became Interim Director, Monash Sustainability Institute, Monash University. The Age 13 June 2009

4 Dr. Graeme Pearman: Climate Change - Science, Society and Us “Much of the psychological response is shaped by natural aversion to uncertainty and complexity. But changing climate is a threat unlike anything we've dealt with before, says Pearman. "If we are waiting for perfect knowledge and perfect solutions, it will be too late. We have to learn to manage this as a risk in which the probability of outcomes is weighted against the impact of those outcomes if they do occur.”

5 Dr. Graeme Pearman: Climate Change - Science, Society and Us "We need to search deeply within ourselves and as communities for the sense of the responsibility we have towards others, and to the stewardship we owe to the millions of species that share the planet with us.“ And we have to do this quickly, Pearman says.

6 Prof Neville Nicholls, ARC Professorial Fellow, Monash University Lead Author IPCC Australian Meteorological & Oceanographic Society (President, 2010-11) Royal Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society American Geophysical Union Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes

7 Prof Peter Seligman: Melbourne Energy Institute, Author, Australian Sustainable Energy by the numbers. A Sustainable Energy Plan for Australia Professor Seligman has been working as a bio engineer with the cochlear team from its early research days in Melbourne University. He was intimately involved in the development of a successful prosthesis, and has remained in that role throughout the product’s commercialisation process. In his book Sustainable Energy – by the numbers, Seligman sets out to provide a clear account of Australia’s renewable energy potential. He analyses a raft of available technologies, and offers a blueprint of a nation-wide renewable energy system based on the most efficient mix of technology, societal, and habitual changes.

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9 … Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat … planetary energy imbalance, 0.58±0.15 W/m 2 during 2005–2010, …confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change.

10 Energy OUT Energy IN Energy OUT is 0.6 W/m 2 LESS than Energy IN

11 Half a watt per square metre! Might sound small, but that’s about: 20 times ALL the power being used by humanity or 40,000 Hiroshima bombs EVERY DAY

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13 That is, if no one else in the world did anything!

14 “The overwhelming scientific evidence tells us that human greenhouse gas emissions are resulting in climate changes that cannot be explained by natural causes. … “Limiting global warming to 2°C is now beginning to look like a nearly insurmountable challenge.” … The Conversation June 2011 theconversation.edu.au

15 “A vast number of scientists, engineers, and visionary businesspeople are boldly designing a future that is based on low-impact energy pathways and living within safe planetary boundaries; a future in which substantial health gains can be achieved by eliminating fossil-fuel pollution; and a future in which we strive to hand over a liveable planet to posterity.” The Conversation June 2011 theconversation.edu.au

16 “At the other extreme, understandable economic insecurity and fear of radical change have been exploited by ideologues and vested interests to whip up ill- informed, populist rage, and climate scientists have become the punching bag of shock jocks and tabloid scribes.” The Conversation June 2011 theconversation.edu.au

17 “Aided by a pervasive media culture that often considers peer-reviewed scientific evidence to be in need of "balance" by internet bloggers, this has enabled so-called "sceptics" to find a captive audience while largely escaping scrutiny.” “Australians have been exposed to a phony public debate which is not remotely reflected in the scientific literature and community of experts.” Signed by 76 prominent scientists working in relevant fields … The Conversation June 2011 theconversation.edu.au

18 Winthrop Professor Stephan Lewandowsky, Australian Professorial Fellow, UWA Dr. Matthew Hipsey, Research Assistant Professor, School of Earth and Environment, Centre of Excellence for Ecohydrology, UWA Dr Julie Trotter, Research Assistant Professor, School of Earth and Environment, UWA Oceans Institute, UWA Winthrop Professor Malcolm McCulloch, F.R.S., Premier's Research Fellow, UWA Oceans Institute, School of Earth and Environment, UWA Professor Kevin Judd, School of Mathematics and Statistics, UWA Dr Thomas Stemler, Assistant Professor, School of Mathematics and Statistics, UWA Dr. Karl-Heinz Wyrwoll, Senior Lecturer, School of Earth and Environment, UWA Dr. Andrew Glikson, Earth and paleoclimate scientist, School of Archaeology and Anthropology, Research School of Earth Science, Planetary Science Institute, ANU Prof Michael Ashley, School of Physics, Faculty of Science, UNSW Prof David Karoly, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Prof John Abraham, Associate Professor, School of Engineering, University of St. Thomas Prof Ian Enting, ARC Centre for Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems, University of Melbourne Prof John Wiseman, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, University of Melbourne Associate Professor Ben Newell, School of Psychology, Faculty of Science, UNSW Prof Matthew England, co-Director, Climate Change Research Centre, Faculty of Science, UNSW Dr Alex Sen Gupta Climate Change Research Centre,Faculty of Science, UNSW Prof. Mike Archer AM, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, UNSW Prof Steven Sherwood, co-Director, Climate Change Research Centre, Faculty of Science, UNSW Dr. Katrin Meissner, ARC Future Fellow, Climate Change Research Centre, Faculty of Science, UNSW Dr Jason Evans, ARC Australian Research Fellow, Climate Change Research Centre,Faculty of Science, UNSW Prof Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Global Change Institute, UQ Dr Andy Hogg, Fellow, Research School of Earth Sciences, ANU Prof John Quiggin, School of Economics, School of Political Science & Intnl Studies, UQ Prof Chris Turney FRSA FGS FRGS, Climate Change Research Centre and School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Dr Gab Abramowitz, Lecturer, Climate Change Research Centre,Faculty of Science, UNSW Prof Andy Pitman, Climate Change Research Centre, Faculty of Science, UNSW Prof Barry Brook, Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change, University of Adelaide Prof Mike Sandiford, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Dr Michael Box, Associate Professor, School of Physics, Faculty of Science, UNSW Prof Corey Bradshaw, Director of Ecological Modelling, The Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide Dr Paul Dargusch, School of Agriculture & Food Science, UQ Prof Nigel Tapper, Professor Environmental Science, School of Geography and Environmental Science Monash University Prof Jason Beringer, Associate Professor & Deputy Dean of Research, School of Geography & Environmental Science, Monash University Prof Neville Nicholls, Professorial Fellow, School of Geography & Environmental Science, Monash University Prof Dave Griggs, Director, Monash Sustainability Institute, Monash University Prof Peter Sly, Medicine Faculty, School of Paediatrics & Child Health, UQ Dr Pauline Grierson, Senior Lecturer, School of Plant Biology, Ecosystems Research Group, Director of West Australian Biogeochemistry Centre, UWA Prof Jurg Keller, IWA Fellow, Advanced Water Management Centre, UQ Prof Amanda Lynch, School of Geography & Environmental Science, Monash University A/Prof Steve Siems, School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University Prof Justin Brookes, Director, Water Research Centre, The University of Adelaide Prof Glenn Albrecht, Professor of Sustainability, Director: Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy (ISTP), Murdoch University Winthrop Professor Steven Smith, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Plant Energy Biology, UWA Dr Kerrie Unsworth, School of Business, UWA Dr Pieter Poot, Assistant Professor in Plant Conservation Biology, School of Plant Biology, UWA Adam McHugh, Lecturer, School of Engineering and Energy, Murdoch University Dr Louise Bruce, Research Associate, School of Earth and Environment, UWA Dr Ailie Gallant, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne Dr Will J Grant, Australian National Centre for Public Awareness of Science, ANU Rick A. Baartman, Fellow of the American Physical Society William GC Raper, Senior Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO (retired) Dr Chris Riedy, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney Ben McNeil, Senior Fellow, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Paul Beckwith, Department of Geography, University of Ottawa Tim Leslie, PhD candidate, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Dr Peter Manins, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (post-retirement Fellow) Prof Philip Jennings, Professor of Energy Studies, Murdoch University Dr John Tibby, Senior Lecturer, Geography, Environment and Population, University of Adelaide Prof Ray Wills, Adjunct Professor, School of Earth and Environment, UWA Jess Robertson, Research School of Earth Sciences, ANU Dr Paul Tregoning, Senior Fellow, Research School of Earth Sciences, ANU Dr Doone Wyborn, Adjunct Professor, Geothermal Centre of Excellence, University of Queensland Dr. Jonathan Whale, Director, National Small Wind Turbine Centre (NSWTC), Murdoch University Dr Tas van Ommen, Australian Antarctic Division, Cryosphere Program Leader, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC Dr Jim Salinger, Honorary Research Associate, School of Environment, University of Auckland Dr P. Timon McPhearson, Assistant Professor of Urban Ecology, Tishman Environment and Design Center, The New School, New York Prof Deo Prasad, Director Masters in Sustainable Development, UNSW Prof Rob Harcourt, Facility Leader, Australian Animal Tagging, Monitoring System Integrated Marine Observing System and Professor of Marine Ecology, Macquarie University Dr John Hunter, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems CRC, University of Tasmania Dr Michael Brown, ARC Future Fellow & Senior Lecturer, School of Physics, Monash University Dr Karen McNamara, Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, University of the South Pacific Dr Paul Marshall, Director - Climate Change, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority Dr Ivan Haigh, Post-doctoral Research Associate, UWA Oceans Institute and School of Environmental Systems Engineering Dr Ian Allison, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC Dr Jennifer Coopersmith, Honorary Research Associate Department of Civil Engineering and Physical Sciences, La Trobe University Professor Emeritus Peter Kershaw, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University

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20 Zunli Lu (author of study): “It is unfortunate that my research, “An ikaite record of late Holocene climate at the Antarctic Peninsula,” recently published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters, has been misrepresented by a number of media outlets. Several of these media articles assert that our study claims the entire Earth heated up during medieval times without human CO2 emissions. We clearly state in our paper that we studied one site at the Antarctic Peninsula. The results should not be extrapolated to make assumptions about climate conditions across the entire globe. Other statements, such as the study “throws doubt on orthodoxies around global warming,” completely misrepresent our conclusions. Our study does not question the well-established anthropogenic warming trend.” DailyMail.co.uk 30 March 2012... and repeated all around the denial blogs. What the Mail IS good at...

21 The Daily Mail normal fare. The Daily Mail normal fare. Which of course is why so many ‘ordinary people’ get to see all the denier nonsense … Which of course is why so many ‘ordinary people’ get to see all the denier nonsense … but none of the serious science! but none of the serious science!

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23 The designation of McHarg Ranges as a ‘‘no-go’’ zone for turbines lies at the heart of a bigger question: what motivated the government to introduce Australia’s toughest wind farm laws, and how did they choose which areas would be excluded? The Age Sat 31 March Was it anything to do with Baillieu cousin and wind farm opponent Lady Marigold Southey? (Who lives there.)

24 The Danes aren’t shy of wind turbines!

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26 Bob Brown gives a serious speech warning that climate change must be tackled on a global scale… and raises the possibility that technological civilisations may be prone to destroying themselves The Age gives it serious space …

27 The Herald-Sun allows Bolt to make a mockery of it… “Maybe the aliens haven't rung Bob because they're sceptics who value free speech.” “ACTUALLY, Greens leader Bob Brown was always like this. So why did the media take him so seriously? And will his Green oration in Hobart last weekend finally wake up the dozy to his dangerous unreason and intolerance?” Without, of course, addressing any of the serious ideas Brown raised.

28 Not to mention his usual attacks on the PM and the carbon ETS. (Just wondering when he is going to get stuck into Baillieu for his “Make Victorian teachers best paid” lie?!) We might regard him as an idiot, but he is “AUSTRALIA’S MOST READ COLUMNIST”

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30 From TGGWS: (and still used by deniers like Plimer) Actual: (2006)

31 State of the Climate 2012 Total CO 2 emissions Fossil fuel emissions Australia contributes 1.3 % of global total emissions (from 0.3% of the population)

32 State of the Climate 2012 Atmospheric methane Carbon dioxide Nitrous oxide

33 State of the Climate 2012 Atmospheric CO 2 increase Decreasing C 13 to C 12 tells us it is fossil fuel Oxygen is being used up as carbon is burnt to CO 2

34 State of the Climate 2012 Mean Global temperatures (NASA, NCDC, UK Hadley) El Niño years La Niña years (2011 warmest ever La Niña year)

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36 Blank TALK ABOUT GREENWASH! “Ultra-clean synthetic fuel from existing natural resources” … “much less pollution” … “sustainable answer” Are these anything other than straight lies? FACTS: Synthetic fuel even dirtier than petrol! NOT sustainable! etc. etc.

37 100% 120% 75% 4%2%

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40 Plimer lies CO 2 Temp Only 7 years!

41 The reality The reality Plimer’s 7 years

42 Because those are the very high, very cold peaks which will melt last! There is NO ‘climate change controversy’ AT ALL This is ABSOLUTE NONSENSE from The Oz (again)

43 Somehow they forgot to mention the other 99.9% of glaciers in the world!

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45 The Age 11 Nov 2011

46 THE world has just five years to make ''urgent and radical policy changes'' or lock in dangerous climate change, the world's leading energy agency has warned, sparking a debate about whether Australia should shift to gas or renewable energy.

47 Agency chief economist Fatih Birol said if by 2017 there is not a start to major new clean infrastructure investments ''the door to 2 degrees will be closed''. ''I am very worried,'' he said, ''if we don't change direction now on how we use energy, we will end up beyond what scientists tell us is the minimum. The door will be closed forever.''

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51 BUT: The Age 5 Nov 2011 BUT: The Age 5 Nov 2011

52 So we are doing our bit… !! So we are doing our bit… !!

53 From The Age March 2012 From The Age March 2012

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