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Outlook for Australia’s forestry and forest products industry Mark Kelly URS Forestry.

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Presentation on theme: "Outlook for Australia’s forestry and forest products industry Mark Kelly URS Forestry."— Presentation transcript:

1 Outlook for Australia’s forestry and forest products industry Mark Kelly URS Forestry

2 Outline of issues International context Resource trends and log markets Sawn timber Pulp and paper Export woodchips Composite boards Emerging products Conclusions

3 International overview China’s demand and production driving international wood product markets Declining native tropical forests Increasing supplies from plantations Supplies from Russian forests South American pulp and paper expansion

4 China’s demand and log prices Hardwood log imports Softwood log imports

5 The rise of plantations Proportion of roundwood sourced from tropical plantations and tropical native forest

6 Large expansion in market pulp capacity in South America will help meet China’s demand Expansion of market pulp capacity in South America China’s imports of pulp

7 Australian plantation resources Softwood changed from one of increasing supplies to constrained opportunity for expansion Plantation hardwood pulpwood will expand rapidly over the next decade - another 8 million m 3 pa New softwood plantation establishment in AustraliaNew hardwood plantation establishment in Australia

8 Australian native forest resources Current harvest volumes Future harvest volumes NSW 665,000 m 3 of native forest sawlogs harvested in 2005/06 Most committed under Wood Supply Agreements Private native forests supplying around 500,000 m 3 pa Expect some decline in harvest over next years. Plantation resources may compensate but unlikely to be sufficient Sustainability of private native forests unknown Tas 650,000 m 3 pa RFA sustainable sawlog harvest Private forests currently supplying around 300,000 m 3 pa of sawlogs Relatively stable public native forest supply with future decline to be met by increasing plantation resources Private native forest harvest may decline Qld Around 250,000 m 3 pa of sawlogs from public native forests Around 250,000 m 3 pa of sawlogs from private native forests Most native forest harvesting on crown land will cease by 2025, to be replaced by plantation resources Western hardwoods region (around half) to cease around 2012 Harvest from private native forests expected to decline Vic Around 580,000 m 3 pa of native forest sawlog Private native forest volume unknown Volumes recently reduced due to impact of Alpine fires Impact of latest fires still being considered WA Sustainable native forest sawlog yield of 185,000 m 3 pa Private forests very small Ongoing sustainable yield from public forests of 185,000 m 3 pa

9 Sawn timber consumption Apparent consumption of sawn timber in AustraliaPer capita consumption of sawn timber in Australia

10 Hardwood sawn timber continue to move to high value appearance uses Rapid growth in LVL consumption in Australia LVL creating competition in hardwood structural markets Also potential competition from LSL Apparent consumption of LVL in Australia

11 Pulp and paper Apparent consumption of printing and writing paper in Australia Apparent consumption of pulp in Australia

12 Woodchip exports Real Australian hardwood woodchip export pricesForecast supplies of hardwood chips in Australia

13 Composite boards Apparent consumption of MDF in Australia Apparent consumption of particleboard in Australia Per capita consumption of boards in Australia

14 Emerging environmental markets Development of carbon trading provides opportunities for plantations Bioenergy and biofuel also provide opportunities Water issues can have both positive and negative implications

15 Key issues for the future Need to attract investment in sawlog plantations Focus on higher value production Develop markets for environmental services Private native forests Scope for sustainable management Pulp mills are very important to hardwood pulpwood sector Hardwood sawn timber to face continued competition Building understanding of sustainability Certification


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