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Page 1 Confidential MARKET PULP FACTS. Page 2 Confidential Market Pulp Overview Market size Production Consumption Pricing –Historical –Projected Cost.

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Presentation on theme: "Page 1 Confidential MARKET PULP FACTS. Page 2 Confidential Market Pulp Overview Market size Production Consumption Pricing –Historical –Projected Cost."— Presentation transcript:

1 Page 1 Confidential MARKET PULP FACTS

2 Page 2 Confidential Market Pulp Overview Market size Production Consumption Pricing –Historical –Projected Cost Structure Trends

3 Page 3 Confidential 2000 Global Pulp Market Size by Capacity Source: RISI 2000 Market & Integrated Pulp C = 182,818 mm MT $95,000,000 a mm (Production = 168,000 mm MT) Market Pulp C = 45,609 mm MT $24,000,000 mm (Production b = 42,000 mm MT) Affiliated Pulp Market 5,000-10,000 mm MT $2,650,000- 5,300,000mm a Based on the 5-year average price of all pulp grades in USA and Europe ($530) b Production is based on capacity * utilization rate 2001 Expected World Capacity = 47 million metric tons.

4 Page 4 Confidential Market Pulp Market by Region Source: RISI 2000 Market Pulp Capacity (in 000s tons) North America = 20,000 tons Europe = 14,000 tons Latin America = 6500 tons Asia = 3800 tons Other * = 1,700 tons Total = 46,000 tons * Other includes Africa and Oceania Market Pulp Revenues (in 000s of dollars) North America = $11,000,000 Europe = $7,000,000 Latin America = $3,000,000 Asia = $2,000,000 Other = $1,000,000 Total = $24,000,000

5 Page 5 Confidential Zone 1Zone 3Zone 2 Total Latin American Market Pulp Capacity: 6,500 Net Exports: -3700 Total European Market Pulp Capacity: 14,000 Net Imports: 6,000 Total Asian Market Pulp Capacity: 3,800 Net Imports : 6,500 Total African Market Pulp Capacity: 800 Net Exports : -150 6,000 Total Australasian Market Pulp Capacity: 900 Net Exports : -150 Total North American Market Pulp Capacity: 20,000 Net Exports : -8,500 Market Pulp Flows in thousands of MT 6,200 Source: RISI & PPPC 6,200

6 Page 6 Confidential Market Pulp Market by Pulp Grade Global Source: RISI 2000 Market Pulp Capacity (in 000s tons) NBSK = 12,000 tons SBSK = 9,000 tons (Fluff Pulp = 2,700 tons = 30%) NBHK = 5,000 tons SBHK = 3700 tons BEK/Tropical = 9,100 tons Other = 7,200 tons Total = 46,000 tons

7 Page 7 Confidential Market Pulp Market by Pulp Grade North America Source: RISI 2000 Market Pulp Capacity (in 000s of tons) NBSK = 8,000 tons SBSK = 4,600 tons NBHK = 3,000 tons SBHK = 1600 tons Other = 2800 tons Total = 20,000 tons

8 Page 8 Confidential Market Pulp Market by Pulp Grade Europe Source: RISI 2000 Market Pulp Capacity (in 000s tons) NBSK = 4,000 tons SBSK = 2,000 tons NBHK = 2,000 tons SBHK = 1,200 tons BEK = 2,000 tons Other = 2,800 tons Total = 14,000 tons

9 Page 9 Confidential Market Pulp Market by Pulp Grade Latin America Source: RISI 2000 Market Pulp Capacity (in 000s tons) SBSK = 1,700 tons SBHK = 500 tons BEK = 3,700 tons Other = 600 tons Total = 6,500 tons

10 Page 10 Confidential Market Pulp Market by Pulp Grade Asia Source: RISI 2000 Market Pulp Capacity (in 000s tons) SBSK = 100 tons Tropical Hardwood = 3,400 tons Other = 300 tons Total = 3,800 tons Note: Capacity in Oceania and Africa (in 000s tons) SBSK = 600 tons SBHK = 400 tons Other = 700 tons Total = 1,700 tons

11 Page 11 Confidential Market Pulp Production

12 Page 12 Confidential Market Pulp Producers Global Market Source: RISI 2001 About 150 pulp producers world wide Top Pulp Producers (000s tons) 1- International Paper (2,890) 2- Weyerhaeuser (2,180) 3- Sodra-Cell (2,070) 4- Tembec (1,925) 5- Georgia-Pacific (1,815)

13 Page 13 Confidential Market Pulp Producers North American Market Source: RISI 2001 About 46 producers in North America Top Pulp Producer (000s tons) 1- Weyerhaeuser (2,180) 2- International Paper (1,865) 3- Georgia Pacific (1,815) 3- Parsons & Whittemore (1,100)

14 Page 14 Confidential Market Pulp Producers European Market Source: RISI 2001 About 64 pulp producers Top Pulp Producers (in 000s tons) 1- Sodra-Cell (2,070) 2- Stora Enso (1,565) 3- UPM-Kymmene (945) 4- ENCE (890) 5- Rottneros Bruk (755)

15 Page 15 Confidential Market Pulp Producers Latin American Market Source: RISI 2001 About 16 pulp producers Top pulp producers (000s tons) 1- Arauco (1,530) 2- Aracruz (1,300) 3- CMPC (950) 4- CVRD (900)

16 Page 16 Confidential Market Pulp Producers Asian Market Source: RISI 2001 About 20 pulp producers in Asia Top pulp producers (in 000s tons) 1- April (950) 2- Donghae Pulp (500) 3- Kiani Kertas (350) 4- Advance Agro (275)

17 Page 17 Confidential Affiliate Pulp Producers Total Global Affiliated Pup = 5-10 million metric tons Europe = 1.5 -3 million metric tons North America = 3.5 - 7 million metric tons

18 Page 18 Confidential Market Pulp Producers Global Market by Pulp Grade Source: RISI 2001 Top Pulp Producers for Softwood (in 000s tons) 1- Weyerhaeuser (SBSK = 1,170; NBSK = 985; Total = 2,155) 2- International Paper (SBSK = 1,300; NBSK = 625; Total = 1,925) 3- Sodra Cell (NBSK = 1,500; Total = 1,500) 4- Canfor (NBSK = 1,325; Total = 1,325) 5- Georgia Pacific (SBSK = 1,200; Total = 1,200) Top Pulp Producers for Hardwoods (in 000s tons) 1- Aracruz (BEK = 1,300; Total = 1,300) 2- APRIL (Tropical hardwood = 950; Total = 950) 3- CVRD (BEK = 890; Total = 890) 4- ENCE (BEK = 890; Total = 890) 5- International Paper (SBHK = 470; NBHK = 330, BEK = 15; Total = 815)

19 Page 19 Confidential Market Pulp Producers Global Market by Pulp Grade Global Sulphite Capacity = 1,440,000 tons Global Unbleached Kraft Pulp Capacity = 2,150,000 tons Global = Mechanical Pulp Capacity = 3,735,000 tons Source: RISI 2001

20 Page 20 Confidential Market Pulp Producers North American Market by Pulp Grade Source: RISI 2001 Top Pulp Producers for Hardwood (in 000s tons) 1- Weyerhaeuser (SBSK= 1,170; NBSK = 985; Total = 2,155) 2- International Paper (SBSK = 820; NBSK = 625; Total = 1,445) 3- Canfor (NBSK =1,325; Total = 1,325) 4- Georgia Pacific ( SBSK = 1,200; Total = 1200) 5- Tembec (NBSK = 680; Total = 680) Top Pulp Producers for Softwoods (in 000s tons) 1- Parsons & Whittemore (SBHK = 425; NBHK = 250; Total = 675) 2- International Paper (SBHK = 340; NBHK = 330; Total = 670) 3- Georgia Pacific (SBHK = 205; NBHK = 410; Total = 615) 4- Smurfit Stone (SBHK = 255; NBHK = 215; Total = 470) 5- Bowater (SBHK = 175; NBHK = 260; Total = 435)

21 Page 21 Confidential Market Pulp Producers European Market by Pulp Grade Source: RISI 2001 Top Pulp Producers for Softwoods (in 000s tons) 1- Sodra Cell (NBSK = 1,500; Total = 1,500) 2- Stora Enso (NBSK = 840; Total = 840) 3- Metsa Botnia (NBSK = 505; Total = 505) 4- UPM-Kymmene (NBSK = 360; Total = 360) 5- Iim Pulp (SBSK = 330; Total = 330) Top Producers for Hardwoods (in 000s tons) 1- ENCE (BEK = 890; Total = 890) 2 = Stora Enso (NBHK = 440; BEK = 285; Total = 725) 3- Portucel (BEK = 625; Total = 625) 4- UMP-Kymmene (NBHK = 580; Total = 580) 5- Sodra Cell (NBHK = 470; Total = 470)

22 Page 22 Confidential Market Pulp Producers Latin American Market by Pulp Grade Source: RISI 2001 Top Producers for Softwoods (in 000s tons) 1-Arauco (Radiata Pine = 1,090; Total = 1,090) 2-CMPC (Radiata Pine = 545; Total = 545) Top Producers for Hardwoods (in 000s tons) 1- Aracruz (BEK = 1,300; Total = 1,300) 2-CVRD (BEK = 900; Total = 90) 3- Suzano (BEK = 410; Total = 410) 4- Votorantim (BEK = 400; Total = 400) 5- CMPC (BEK = 350; Total = 350)

23 Page 23 Confidential Market Pulp Producers Asian Market by Pulp Grade Source: RISI 2001 Top Producers for Softwoods (in 000s tons) 1- Toyo Paper (SBSK = 45; Total = 45) 2- Nippon Paper (SBSK =30; Total = 30) 3- Daio Paper (SBSK = 15; Total = 15) Top Producers for Hardwoods (in 000s tons) 1- APRIL (Tropical hardwoods = 950; Total = 950) 2- Donghae Paper (NBHK = 445; Total = 445) 3- Tanjugenim Lestari (NBHK = 425; Total = 425) 4- Kiani Kertas (NBHK = 350; Total = 350)

24 Page 24 Confidential Market Pulp Consumption

25 Page 25 Confidential Pulp Use in End Products End Product Grade of Pulp Coated Free Sheet Uncoated Free Sheet Coated Ground Wood Uncoated Ground Wood News PrintTissueDiapers Annual Reports Art Paper Xerographic Formbonds Envelopes books Magazine Paper inserts High-quality newspaper Newspaper Mechanical50%85-100%90-100% NBSK42%25%30%25% SBSKOr (25%)Or (30%)Or (25%) SBSK – Fluff Pulp Only 40% NBHK43%60%75% SBHK BEK1%Or (75%) Other14%15%15-20%0-15%0-10%60%

26 Page 26 Confidential Market Pulp Consumption by End Product Global Source: RISI 2001 & Bank of America 2001 Graphic Paper & Tissue Paper Capacity (in 000s tons) CFS = 28,012 tons CGW = 17,507 tons UFS = 55,703 tons UGW = 14,962 tons Newsprint = 42,737 tons Tissue E = 22,000 tons E Tissue Capacity is estimated from Bank of America Pulp and Paper Quarterly

27 Page 27 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Global Market for Graphic Paper About 500 paper producers worldwide Top Producers of Graphic Paper (in 000s tons) 1- Stora Enso (11,844) 2- UPM-Kymmene (10,452) 3- International Paper (8,307) 4- Abitibi Consolidated (7,733 5- NSI (7,415) 6- Nippon Unipac (6,023) Source: RISI 2001

28 Page 28 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Global Market for Coated Free Sheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 20 big producers of Coated Freesheet Paper Top Producers of Coated Freesheet (in 000s tons) 1- Sappi (2,987) 2-M-Real (2,395) 3-Stora Enso (2,391) 4-Nippon Unipac (1,688) 5-Mead/Westvaco (1,500)

29 Page 29 Confidential Source: RISI 200? Market Pulp Consumers Global Market for Coated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 20 big producers of Coated Groundwood paper Top Producers for Coated Groundwood (in 000s tons) 1- UPM-Kymmene (3,602) 2- Stora Enso (2,963) 3- International Paper (1,394) 4- NSI (988) 5- Burgo (926)

30 Page 30 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Global Market for Uncoated Freesheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 20 big producers of uncoated freesheet Top Producers for Uncoated Freesheet (in 000s tons) 1- International Paper (5,554) 2- Domtar (2,095) 3- Nippon Unipac (1,574) 4- UPM-Kymmene (1,520) 5- Stora Enso (1,514)

31 Page 31 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Global Market for Uncoated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 20 big producers of uncoated groundwood Top Producers for Uncoated Groundwood (in 000s tons) 1- UPM-Kymmene (2,005) 2 Stora Enso (1,792) 2- Abitibi (1,566) 3- NSI (1,547) 4- Myllykoski (814) 5- Nippon Unipac (657)

32 Page 32 Confidential Source: RISI 200? Market Pulp Consumers Global Market for News Print Source: RISI 2001 About 20 top big newsprint producers Top Producers for Newsprint 1- Abitibi (6,127) 2- NSI (4,840) 3- Bowater (3,609) 4- Stora Enso (3,184) 5- UPM-Kymmene (2,375)

33 Page 33 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Global Market for Tissue Source: Bank of America June 2001 About 10 big tissue producers Top Producers for Tissue 1- Georgia Pacific (7,700) 2- Kimberly Clark (3,960) 3- Procter & Gamble (3,080) 4- American Tissue (880) 5- SCA (880) Tissue production is estimated as the global capacity * market share

34 Page 34 Confidential Market Pulp Consumption by End Product North America Source: RISI 2001 Graphic Paper & Tissue Paper Capacity (in 000s tons) CFS = 6,112 tons CGW = 5,292 tons UFS = 15,522 tons UGW = 5,465 tons Newsprint = 16,016 tons Tissue = 8,415 tons

35 Page 35 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers North American Market for Coated Freesheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 18 top CFS producers Top Producers for CFS (in 000s tons) 1- Westvaco/Mead (1,652) 2- Sappi (1,035) 3- International Paper (1,311) 4- Stora-Enso (784) 5- Potlatch (445)

36 Page 36 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers North American Market for Coated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 15 top CGW producers Top Producers for CGW (in 000s tons) 1- International Paper (1,261) 2- Stora Enso (1,183) 3- Mead (615) 4- United Paper Mills (520) 5- Repap (505)

37 Page 37 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers North American Market for Uncoated Freesheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 40 top UFS producers Top Producers for UFS (in 000s tons) 1- International Paper (4,578) 2- Domtar (2,309) 3- Boise Cascade (1,579) 4- Willamette (1,410) 5- Weyerhaeuser (1,385) 6- Georgia Pacific (1,349) Recently announced asset sales between GP and Domater and NSI and Pacifica have been incorporated

38 Page 38 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers North American Market for Uncoated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 22 top UGW producers Top Producers for UFS (in 000s tons) 1- Abitibi (1,677) 2- NSI (746) 3- Bowater (683) 4- Stora Enso (631) 5- Kruger (431) Recently announced asset sales between GP and Domater and NSI and Pacifica have been incorporated

39 Page 39 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers North American Market for News Print Source: RISI 2001 About 21 top Newsprint producers Top Producers for Newsprint (in 000s tons) 1- Abitibi (5783) 2- Bowater 3,692) 3- Kruger (1,084) 4- NSI (1,043) 5- SP Newsprint (950) Recently announced asset sales between GP and Domater and NSI and Pacifica have been incorporated

40 Page 40 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers North American Market for Tissue Source: RISI 2001 Bank of America June 2001 About 10 top Tissue producers Top Producers for Tissue (in 000s tons) 1- Georgia Pacific (2,964) 2- Kimberly Clark (1,466) 3- Procter & Gamble (1,165) 4- American Tissue (375) 5- SCA (368) 6- Kruger (275)

41 Page 41 Confidential Market Pulp Consumption by End Product Europe Source: RISI 2001 & Bank of America Graphic Paper & Tissue Paper Capacity (in 000s tons) CFS = 11,511 tons CGW = 9,759 tons UFS = 12,900 tons UGW = 7,053 tons Newsprint = 14,022 tons Tissue E = 5,800 tons

42 Page 42 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers European Market for Coated Freesheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 20 top CFS producers Top Producers for CFS (in 000s tons) 1- M-Real (2,395) 2- Sappi (1,960) 3- Stora Enso (1,610) 4- CVC Capital (1,184) 5- Burgo (970)

43 Page 43 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers European Market for Coated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 17 top CGW producers Top Producers for CGW (in 000s tons) 1- UPM-Kymmene (3,130) 2- Stora Enso (1,890) 3- M-Real (1,135) 4- Burgo (926) 5- NSI (790)

44 Page 44 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers European Market for Uncoated Freesheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 20 top UFS producers Top Producers for UFS (in 000s tons) 1- M-Real (1,480) 2- Stora Enso (1,442) 3-UPM-Kymmene (1,170) 4- Portucel (823) 5- AWA (651)

45 Page 45 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers European Market for Uncoated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 20 top UGW producers Top Producers for UGW (in 000s tons) 1- UPM-Kymmene (2,000) 2- Stora Enso (1,220) 3- NSI (800) 4- Myllykoski (550) 5- Holmen (425)

46 Page 46 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers European Market for News Print Source: RISI 2001 About 17 top UGW producers Top Producers for Newsprint (in 000s tons) 1- Stora Enso (2,995) 2- UPM-Kymmene (2,375) 3- NSI (1,990) 4- Holmen (1,115) 5- SCA (555)

47 Page 47 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers European Market for Tissue Source: Bank of America June 2001 About 7 top Tissue producers Top Producers for Tissue (in 000s tons) 1- SCA (1,276) 2- Kimberly Clark (928) 3- Georgia Pacific (870) 4- M-Real (464) 5- CartoInvest (406)

48 Page 48 Confidential Market Pulp Consumption by End Product Latin America Graphic Paper & Tissue Paper Capacity (in 000s tons) CFS = 508 tons CGW = 259 tons UFS = 3,356 tons UGW = 227 tons Newsprint = 1,410 tons Tissue E = 60 tons E Tissue Capacity is sourced from Jacobs Sirrine Source: RISI and Jacobs Sirrine

49 Page 49 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Latin American Market for Coated Freesheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 18 top CFS producers Top Producers for CFS (in 000s tons) 1- Votorantim (155) 2- Suzano (75) 3- Celulosa Argentina (45) 4- Kimberly Clark (45)

50 Page 50 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Latin American Market for Coated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 8 top CGW producers Top Producers for CGW (in 000s tons) 1- International Paper (190) 2- Klabin (50) 3- Carton S. A. (10)

51 Page 51 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Latin American Market for Uncoated Freesheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 50 top UFS producers Top Producers for UFS (in 000s tons) 1- International Paper (387) 2- Ripasa (291) 3- Suzano (270) 4- Bahia Sul (220) 5- Votorantim (177)

52 Page 52 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers L.A. Market for Ucoated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 10 top UGW producers Top Producers for UGW (in 000s tons) 1- Ledesima (75) 2- Venepal Saca (25) 3- Celulosa Argentina (21) 4- Agaprint Informatica (20)

53 Page 53 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers L.A. Market for News Print Source: RISI 2001 About 9 top Newsprint producers Top Producers for Newsprint (in 000s tons) 1- Durango (420) 2- CMPC (200) 3- Pisa (195) 4- Papel Presa (150) 5- Papeles Bio (120)

54 Page 54 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers L.A. Market for Tissue Source: RISI 200? CMPC produces 60,000 tons of tissue paper a year

55 Page 55 Confidential Market Pulp Consumption by End Product Asia & Oceania Graphic Paper Capacity (in 000s tons) CFS = 9,754 tons CGW = 2,179 tons UFS = 22,663 tons UGW = 1,965 tons Newsprint = 10,620 tons Source: RISI 2001

56 Page 56 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Asian & Oceanian Market for Coated Freesheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 20 top CFS producers Top Producers for CFS (in 000s tons) 1- Nippon Unipac (1,667) 2- Oji Paper (1,333) 3- Daio Paper (491) 4- Mitsubishi (432) 5- Hokuetsu (431)

57 Page 57 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Asian Market for Coated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 7 top CGW producers Top Producers for CGW (in 000s tons) 1- Nippon Unipac (750) 2- Oji Paper (616) 3- Daio Paper (133) 4- Mitsubishi (132) 5- Hokuetsu (120)

58 Page 58 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Asian Market for Uncoated Freesheet Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 20 top UFS producers Top Producers for UFS (in 000s tons) 1- Nippon Unipac (1,574) 2- Oji Paper (787) 3- Advance Agro (361) 4- APRIL (350) 5- UPM-Kymmene (350)

59 Page 59 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Asian Market for Uncoated Groundwood Paper Source: RISI 2001 About 8 top UGW producers Top Producers for UGW (in 000s tons) 1- Nippon Unipac (512) 2- Marusumi (236) 3- Oji Paper (204) 4- Daio Paper (153) 5- Hokuetsu (92)

60 Page 60 Confidential Market Pulp Consumers Asian Market for News Print Source: RISI 2001 About 20 top Newsprint producers Top Producers for Newsprint (in 000s tons) 1- Nippon Unipac (1,354) 2- Oji Paper (1,290) 3- Pan Asia Paper (1,275) 4- Daio Paper (600) 5- Aspex (430)

61 Page 61 Confidential Price Discussion Price Drivers: Consumption/Demand Shipments Inventories Capacity/Supply Source: RISI 2001 Price Indicators: Magazine Ad Pages Economy

62 Page 62 Confidential Cost Discussion

63 Page 63 Confidential Cost Discussion

64 Page 64 Confidential Cost Discussion

65 Page 65 Confidential Cost Discussion

66 Page 66 Confidential Capacity Growth

67 Page 67 Confidential Cost Structure by Region Freight Costs by Delivery Region Source: Jacobs-Sirrine

68 Page 68 Confidential Threats to North American Softwood Market BEK (discussed on following slide) Improving technology permits greater substitutability of softwoods by less expensive hardwood grades TMP- (Thermomechanical pulp) because it can be produced onsite and can displace softwoods although this is a very low percentage. Recovered Paper especially in newsprint Greater use of minerals (clay and carbonate) replacing virgin fiber especially in supercalendered paper because surface is smoother and has higher printing quality To be added

69 Page 69 Confidential BEK BEK threatens both the softwoods and hardwoods as it refines more readily than other hardwoods making it a more cost-effective substitute for softwoods Unique quality characteristics (such as longer fiber length than other hardwoods) make it the preferred furnish for use in copy paper (high opacity) and tissue (softness) Brazilians use 100% BEK in production of copy paper and Europeans moving in the same direction 1.5 million metric tons of BEK capacity expected to come on line during 2002 and 2003 (all in Brazil) Brazilian BEK mills are world’s lowest-cost producers and currently stand at a cash cost of approximately US$170 – 180/metric ton


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