Presentation on theme: "The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not necessarily be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management Regional."— Presentation transcript:
The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not necessarily be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management Regional Workshop on Strategic Statistical Planning: Towards a Stronger ASEAN Community Statistical System ASEAN Secretariat Jakarta, Indonesia (November 28–29, 2012) He Qi Advisor IMF Statistics Department G-20 Data Gaps Initiatives —An International Response to the Global Financial Crisis
Plan of the Presentation Objectives of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI) The Gaps Implementation and Consultation Feedback Challenges 2
History has demonstrated that crises create new demands for financial and economic data: This crisis is no different. The IMF, along with other international agencies, is working along two tracks to address the data challenges: Addressing new data needs arising from the crisis, and Making data more accessible and timely through the Principal Global Indicators (PGI) website. 3 Introduction
G-20 Data Gaps Initiative Through the G-20 process in April 2009, the IMF and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) were asked to: “explore gaps and provide appropriate proposals for strengthening data collection before the next meeting of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors.” At the Spring Meetings 2009, the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee welcomed this work with the FSB: “to provide better indicators of systemic risks and address data gaps, and underline the importance of international cooperation in preventing such systemic risks.” 4
G-20 Data Gaps Initiative The IMF’s Statistics Department is working with the Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (IAG) to coordinate this work. 1 The IMF, along with FSB, organized a very well attended Users’ Conference in July 2009 at IMF Headquarters (primarily financial stability experts from G-20 countries and international agencies). (http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2009/usersconf/index.htm)http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2009/usersconf/index.htm 5 1 Established in 2008, the IAG is chaired by the IMF and consists of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the European Central Bank (ECB), Eurostat, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the United Nations, and the World Bank.
Four Themes of the Data Gaps Initiative The IMF/FSB report to the G-20 on the financial crisis and information gaps, presented at end-October 2009, identified a need to address four main interrelated areas: Build-up of risk in the financial sector. Cross-border financial linkages. Vulnerability of domestic economies to shocks. Improving communication (http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm).http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm 6
Overview of 20 Recommendations to Close Data Gaps Twenty recommendations were proposed under the DGI in the 2009 IMF/FSB Report (see Annex I). From an implementation standpoint, they can be divided into two categories (as described in the next slide): Those recommendations for which the conceptual/statistical frameworks exist and ongoing collection needs enhancement. Those recommendations for which conceptual/statistical frameworks need development. 7
L-29 Economic and Financial Statistics in the Context of Global Financial Crisis HQ 11.06/8 Build-up of Risk in the Financial Sector Cross-border Financial Linkages Vulnerability of Domestic Economies to Shocks Improving Communication of Official Statistics # 2 Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs) #5 Credit Default Swaps #7 Securities # 10, #11, #12 Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, International Banking Statistics, International Investment Positions #15 Institutional Sector Accounts # 17 Government Finance Statistics # 18 Public Sector Debt #19 Real Estate Prices #20 Principal Global Indicators (PGIs) # 3 Tail Risk in the Financial System #4 Aggregate Leverage and Maturity Mismatches; #6 Structured Products #8 and # 9 Global Network Connections and Systemically Important Global Institutions # 13 and #14 Financial and Nonfinancial Corporations’ Cross Border Exposures #16 Distributional Information There Exist Conceptual/ Statistical Frameworks and Ongoing Collection Conceptual Statistical Framework Needs Further Development DATA GAPS 7
Build-up of Risk in the Financial Sector Improve coverage of indicators of financial health and soundness of financial institutions, the so-called Financial Soundness Indicators. Develop measures of aggregate leverage and maturity mismatches in the financial system. Improve: 1) Coverage of credit default swaps, not least to improve understanding of risk transfers within this market. 2) Disclosure requirements for complex structured products (IOSCO), and 3) The availability of standardized data on securities. 9
Cross-border Financial Linkages Better understand cross-border financial linkages of systematically important global financial institutions. Strengthen data collection on cross-border banking flows and positions: Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey, BIS International Banking Statistics, and IIP data. Monitoring and measuring cross-border exposures of nonfinancial, and financial, corporations. International exposures of nonbank financial institutions. 10
Vulnerability of Domestic Economies to Shocks Strengthen sectoral coverage of national balance sheets, flow of funds, and sectoral data more generally (and the distributional information). Promote timely and cross-country standardized and comparable government finance statistics. Compile and disseminate public sector debt. Disseminate more comparable data on real estate prices. 11
Improving Communication Improve the communication of official statistics and close gaps in availability of data to users: Making data more accessible and timely for a wider audience through the Principal Global Indicators site. 12
Principal Global Indicators (1) Principal Global Indicators, on IMF.org, launched in April 2009: Principal Global Indicators An inter-agency initiative with the BIS, ECB, Eurostat, OECD, World Bank, and UN. Brings together data for G-20 economies and five non-G-20 FSB members. One-stop shop = http://www.principalglobalindicators.org/default.aspx Focus is on systemically important economies: Timely data on the financial, government, external, and real sectors; Links to central banks, financial regulatory agencies, and other key websites; 13
Principal Global Indicators (2) Access to data from international sources; and G-20 official website provides link to PGI. The PGI continues to innovate: In March 2012, the GDP growth rate for G-20 economies as a group was added; and In August, data on sectoral balance sheets and portfolio investment were added. In November, countries’ coverage is expanded to include Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg, and Sweden. The PGI now includes data for the G-20 and economies that are not members of the G-20 identified by the IMF as having systemically important financial sectors. 14
Implementation and Consultation The implementation of the DGI involves: A great deal of collaboration among international institutions (IAG). A consultation process with the G-20 economies (FSB/IMF Senior Officials Conferences, and IMF bilateral visits and regional conferences). FSB/IMF reporting to the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. 2/ Communication process (UNSC side events, IMF Annual Meetings Seminars, PGI Website). 2/ Since 2009, three progress reports (May 2010, June 2011, and September 2012) have been submitted. These reports are available on the IMF website “IMF and the Group of Twenty” http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/053110.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/063011.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/093012.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/053110.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/063011.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/093012.pdf 20 IAG: BIS, ECB, Eurostat, IMF (chair), OECD, UN, World Bank FSB IMF
As part of the continuing consultation process, the IMF’s Statistics Department, in collaboration with the FSB Secretariat and the members of the IAG, organized four regional conferences and one global conference for G-20 senior officials during the first half of 2012. The regional conferences were hosted by: Bank of Mexico (March 2012), Undersecretariat of the Treasury of Turkey (April 2012), Banque de France (April 2012), and People’s Bank of China (May 2012) The global conference was hosted by the FSB at the BIS headquarters in Basel, Switzerland (June 2012). 21 G-20 Regional and Global Conferences
Feedback from the Global Conference (1) There continues to be strong support for the G-20 DGI. Comprehensive and high-quality data are essential for good policies. There is a need to improve the sharing of information relevant for early warning and policymaking. Complexity of the crisis meant addressing data gaps as a global initiative, hence the need for outreach, networking, and call for the G-20 to support the initiative with adequate resources. There is demand for the datasets being enhanced and developed under the DGI for analysis and policymaking, including for: Financial stability, External vulnerability, Fiscal sustainability, and Domestic interconnectedness. 22
Feedback from the Global Conference (2) Data needs are increasing due to links with other G-20 initiatives and emerging regulatory/supervisory work, including: Legal entity identifiers (LEI), Work of the Basel Committee on Risk Concentration (2016); IOSCO work on derivatives, and FSB work on shadow banking. The DGI proved relevant for other policy/institutional initiatives following the global crisis, including: The IMF’s 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review The recent strengthening of the IMF’s Data Standards and the establishment of the SDDS Plus. 23
Feedback from the Global Conference (3) G-20 data gaps work has spurred closer coordination among domestic statistical agencies. There is demand for greater granularity of data. There is need to encourage more private sector disclosure of data. Some data gaps would take longer and require additional resources, hence the need to set priorities, action plans, and timelines. 24
Challenges Going Forward (1) Maintaining the progress that has been achieved to date. Implementing the enhancements to existing datasets (e.g., BIS IBS, CPIS, sectoral accounts). Completing the work on the new conceptual/statistical frameworks, such as G-SIFIs. Maintaining close collaboration and coordination at the international level, including strengthening improved data flow among IAG members. Improving coordination among national and regional agencies involved in statistical work, including with supervisory authorities. 25
Challenges Going Forward (2) Further harmonizing data templates to enhance consistency and country comparability. Monitoring and meeting new data requirements emerging from ongoing regulatory/supervisory reforms and other G-20 initiatives, ensuring consistency between existing datasets and emerging ones. Ensuring adequate resources for statistical work while other priorities (ongoing domestic regulatory and other priority actions) compete for constrained resources. Continuing and strengthening outreach and networking on the G-20 DGI. 26
Concluding Remarks Continued support by the international community for this statistical work is essential. The G-20 DGI has helped mobilize the international statistical community to fill the data gaps emerging from the global crisis. This work required unprecedented coordination among international agencies and member countries. The key data outputs from the DGI are being incorporated in the SDDS Plus. This work brings benefits to surveillance work and policymaking at the national and international levels. 27
Annex I: G-20 Data Gaps Initiative List of 20 Recommendations 28 Recommendation 1.Staffs of FSB and the IMF report back to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors by June 2010 on progress, with a concrete plan of action, including a timetable, to address each of the outstanding recommendations. Thereafter, staffs of FSB and IMF to provide updates on progress once a year. Financial stability experts, statisticians, and supervisors should work together to ensure that the program is successfully implemented. Monitoring Risk in the Financial Sector 2.The IMF to work on increasing the number of countries disseminating Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs), including expanding country coverage to encompass all G ‑ 20 members, and on other improvements to the FSI website, including preferably quarterly reporting. FSI list to be reviewed.
29 3.In consultation with national authorities, and drawing on the Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide, the IMF to investigate, develop, and encourage implementation of standard measures that can provide information on tail risks, concentrations, variations in distributions, and the volatility of indicators over time. 4.Further investigation of the measures of system-wide macroprudential risk to be undertaken by the international community. As a first step, the BIS and the IMF should complete their work on developing measures of aggregate leverage and maturity mismatches in the financial system, drawing on inputs from the Committee on the Global Financial System (CGFS) and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). 5.The CGFS and the BIS to undertake further work in close cooperation with central banks and regulators on the coverage of statistics on the credit default swap markets for the purpose of improving understanding of risk transfers within this market.
30 6.Securities market regulators working through IOSCO to further investigate the disclosure requirements for complex structured products, including public disclosure requirements for financial reporting purposes, and make recommendations for additional improvements. If necessary, taking account of work by supervisors and other relevant bodies. 7.Central banks and, where relevant, statistical offices, particularly those of the G-20 economies, to participate in the BIS data collection on securities and contribute to the further development of the BIS-ECB-IMF Handbook on Securities Statistics (Handbook). The Working Group on Securities Databases to develop and implement a communications strategy for the Handbook. International Network Connections 8.The FSB to investigate the possibility of improved collection and sharing of information on linkages between individual financial institutions, including through supervisory college arrangements and the information exchange being considered for crisis management planning. This work must take due account of the important confidentiality and legal issues that are raised, and existing information sharing arrangements among supervisors.
9.The FSB, in close consultation with the IMF, to convene relevant central banks, national supervisors, and other international financial institutions, to develop by end 2010 a common draft template for systemically important global financial institutions for the purpose of better understanding the exposures of these institutions to different financial sectors and national markets. This work should be undertaken in concert with related work on the systemic importance of financial institutions. Widespread consultation would be needed, and due account taken of confidentiality rules, before any reporting framework can be implemented. 10.All G-20 economies are encouraged to participate in the IMF’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) and in the BIS’s International Banking Statistics (IBS). The IMF and the BIS are encouraged to continue their work to improve the coverage of significant financial centers in the CPIS and IBS, respectively. 11.The BIS and the CGFS to consider, amongst other improvements, the separate identification of nonbank financial institutions in the consolidated banking data, as well as information required to track funding patterns in the international financial system. The IMF, in consultation with the IMF’s Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics, to strive to enhance the frequency and timeliness of the CPIS data, and consider other possible enhancements, such as the institutional sector of the foreign debtor. 31
12.The IMF to continue to work with countries to increase the number of International Investment Position (IIP) reporting countries, as well as the quarterly reporting of IIP data. The Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition (BPM6) enhancements to the IIP should be adopted by G-20 economies as soon as feasible. 13.The Interagency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (IAG) to investigate the issue of monitoring and measuring cross-border, including foreign exchange derivative, exposures of nonfinancial, and financial, corporations with the intention of promoting reporting guidance and the dissemination of data. 14.The IAG, consulting with the FSB, to revisit the recommendation of the G-22 to examine the feasibility of developing a standardized template covering the international exposures of large nonbank financial institutions, drawing on the experience with the BIS’s IBS data, other existing and prospective data sources, and consulting with relevant stakeholders. 32
33 Sectoral and Other Financial and Economic Datasets 15.The IAG, which includes all agencies represented in the Inter-Secretariat Working Group on National Accounts, to develop a strategy to promote the compilation and dissemination of the balance sheet approach (BSA), flow of funds, and sectoral data more generally, starting with the G-20 economies. Data on nonbank financial institutions should be a particular priority. The experience of the ECB and Eurostat within Europe and the OECD should be drawn upon. In the medium term, including more sectoral balance sheet data in the data categories of the Special Data Dissemination Standard could be considered. 16.As the recommended improvements to data sources and categories are implemented, statistical experts to seek to compile distributional information (such as ranges and quartile information) alongside aggregate figures, wherever this is relevant. The IAG is encouraged to promote production and dissemination of these data in a frequent and timely manner. The OECD is encouraged to continue in its efforts to link national accounts data with distributional information. 17.The IMF to promote timely and cross-country standardized and comparable government finance data based on the accepted international standard, the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001.
34 18.The World Bank, in coordination with the IMF, and consulting with the Inter- Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, to launch the public sector debt database in 2010. 19.The Inter-Secretariat Working Group on Price Statistics to complete the planned handbook on real estate price indices. The BIS and member central banks to investigate dissemination on the BIS website of publicly available data on real estate prices. The IAG to consider including real estate prices (residential and commercial) in the Principal Global Indicators (PGI) website. Communication of Official Statistics 20. The G-20 economies to support enhancement of the Principal Global Indicators website, and close the gaps in the availability of their national data. The IAG should consider making longer runs of historical data available.