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Climate Briefing September 17, 2009 Recent climate variability & impacts (What I did on my summer vacation) Forecasting West Africa seasonal rainfall Latest.

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Presentation on theme: "Climate Briefing September 17, 2009 Recent climate variability & impacts (What I did on my summer vacation) Forecasting West Africa seasonal rainfall Latest."— Presentation transcript:

1 Climate Briefing September 17, 2009 Recent climate variability & impacts (What I did on my summer vacation) Forecasting West Africa seasonal rainfall Latest ENSO conditions and forecasts Latest IRI global seasonal forecasts Photo Credit: Cornell University

2 T1R9, Maine Located in Piscataquis County There were 843 people – total – living full time in the more than 50 unnamed townships in Piscataquis county in That’s a cozy average population of about 17 Humans per township. The average moose density is about 18 Moose/township...

3 View of Mt. Katahdin from the lake shore at the Lyon Lodge… on a SUNNY summer day

4 June 2009 – 14 consecutive days

5 “Visit #1” “Visit #2” Rain No Rain Millinocket, Maine Days with > 0.25mm PRCP :- (:- )

6 From: Bangor Daily News 7/2/09

7 June 2009 TEMP July 2009 TEMP June 2009 PRCP July 2009 PRCP

8 June & July hPa Height Anom (TOP), SST Anom (BOT.)

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12 ewsArticles/LateBlightJune09.html Late Blight… in NY

13 blight_tomato.htm Cornell University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences

14 Late Blight can also affect soils and tuber development Photo Credit: Cornell University

15 Phytophthora infestans is an oomycete or water mold that causes the serious potato disease known as late blight or potato blight. It was a major culprit in the 1845 Irish and 1846 Highland potato famines. The organism can also infect tomatoes and some other members of the Solanaceae.

16 Tmax 62°-75° F PRCP > 0.1 mm Tmin > 50° F RH > 75% From Forsund (1983), EPPO Bulletin: Meteorological Conditions Favorable for Phytophthora infestans Note: An infestation in the previous year also increases the probability of an outbreak in year “t+1” (often used as a predictor in models). The “potato famine” in Ireland began in 1845 (⅓ to ½ of total crop lost); in 1846 crop lost estimated at > ¾. The lower crop yields resulted in fewer seed potatoes available in subsequent years. Many other forecast models in use: Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logistic Regression, etc.

17 Millinocket, Maine Days Optimal for “Late Blight” (Phytophthora infestans) Tmax 62-75° F PRCP > 0.1 mm Tmin > 50° F RH * > 75% From Forsund (1983), EPPO Bulletin

18 View of Mt. Katahdin from the lake shore at the Lyon Lodge… on a sunny SEPTEMBER day

19 BTW: In 2003 Piscataquis County (home of T1R9) produced 80% of the world’s wooden golf tees... The End


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