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Utilization of the Regional Travel Forecasting EMME/2 Model for the Purposes of Long Range Transportation Planning Ontario EMME/2 Users Group Meeting April.

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Presentation on theme: "Utilization of the Regional Travel Forecasting EMME/2 Model for the Purposes of Long Range Transportation Planning Ontario EMME/2 Users Group Meeting April."— Presentation transcript:

1 Utilization of the Regional Travel Forecasting EMME/2 Model for the Purposes of Long Range Transportation Planning Ontario EMME/2 Users Group Meeting April 8, 2005 Vladimir Livshits Principal Planner Regional Municipality of Peel

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3 3 Iterative procedure to determine suggested regional road improvements and ROW requirements for the future years Impact Assessment of the TDM scenarios Sensitivity Testing for the Planning Policies Regional Travel Forecast Consolidation of Travel Forecasts Main Results: Major Future Travel Patterns, Trip Interchanges and Performance Indicators Modelling Support and Validation for Planning Policies Main Results: Screen Lines and Corridors LOS, Aggregated Performance Indicators for Implemented Policy Scenarios Comparison with Regional Plans Comparison with Other Studies/Plans/D ata Groups of Scenarios:  Group 1: Base Case Scenarios  Group 2: Auto Occupancy and Alternative Modes Scenarios  Group 3: Transit Mode Split Scenarios  Group 4: Combined Scenarios  Group 5: Peak Hour Spreading Scenarios  Group 6: Land Use Changes Scenarios  Group 7: Travel Time Changes Scenarios  Group 8: Road Improvements Scenarios DCs update Cap. Plan TTMP MTO data Mississauga Data An Input for the OPAs, DCs, Regional Planning Exercises Main Results: Recommended Road Improvements and Rights-of-Way on Regional Roads Modelling of the regional transportation networks Forecast based on the Regional Model Recommended regional road improvements and ROW requirements Implementation of improvements Impact assessment TTS based Analysis Peel Regional Model Forecast Future Passenger Travel Demand Trends and Forecast Official Plan CATS BATS, WCPS Future Travel Demand Analysis

4 4 I. Consolidation of Travel Forecasts

5 5 II. Modelling Support and Validation for Planning Policies

6 6 Physical Road Improvements Alone Can’t Alleviate Congestion on Peel’s Arterial Roads Peel Arterial Roads will be Congested Even with All Recommended Improvements

7 7 Future Regional Network Performance: Capacity Deficiency in Morning Peak Hour on Screen Lines V/C Ratio Higher than or lower Legend Base Case: 10 Year Capital Plan Development Charges By-Law

8 8 Future Regional Network Performance: Morning Peak Hour on Screen Lines (After Recommended Improvements) Base Case and Recommended Road Improvements V/C Ratio Higher than or lower Legend

9 9 Additional Transit/TDM Options Tested Scenario NameScenario Description and Assumptions Transit Mode Split ScenarioTTMP and Mississauga transit mode split assumptions for years 2011 and 2021 Increased transit mode split for GO lines corridors Auto Occupancy and Alternative Modes Scenarios Increase in auto occupancy and decrease in total travel demand Peak Hour Spreading Scenario Decrease in peak hour factors for aggregated trip interchanges Combined ScenarioThe scenarios combine modal split assumptions, auto occupancy assumptions, and peak hour spreading assumptions

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11 11 Implementing Transit/TDM Measures can help offset 10 years of congestion growth! Additional TDM Measure Congestion level in 2021 with TDM and Transit improvements

12 12 III. Input for the OPAs, DCs, Regional Planning Exercises

13 13 Road Improvements Suggested by the Regional Model

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17 17 Typical ROW Requirements  Above requirements do not include streetscaping or transit needs.  Road widening can be accommodate in narrower ROW, if necessary and in specific circumstances

18 18 Constraints to Road Widening and ROW Expansion  Physical Constraints - Constraints due to existing residential, industrial or commercial land uses  Financial Constraints - Expected high cost of acquiring additional ROW  Legal Constraints - Expected legal complications in acquiring ROW

19 40m – 50m 32m – 36m 20m – 30m Constraints to Additional ROW as Identified by Public Works Areas of Constraint Winston Churchill Blvd Mayfield Bovaird Queen Derry Britannia Queensway Hwy 50 Cawthra

20 20 No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes, include in the set of improvements No, exclude from the set of improvements No, include in the set of improvements Yes, exclude from the set of improvements Provincial, regional and municipal road and transit network plans Regional transportation vision, goals and policies Regional and municipal land use and travel demand forecasts and surveys’ data Peel Region Travel Forecasting Model Level of Service Criteria Satisfied? Maximum number of through lanes criteria satisfied? Continuity and feasibility analysis from planning perspective Non-planning constraints (engineering, financial, legal, administrative) satisfied? Set of recommended improvements and right- of-way for the horizon years Travel forecast on regional roads Set of road improvements from planning exercise Feasible set of road improvements and right-of-ways Consultations with external stakeholders Criteria for substantial change in LOS on regional roads satisfied? Changes in v/c on regional roads

21 Regional Road Right-Of-Way Requirements Current Regional OP 40m – 50m 32m – 36m 20m – 30m Winston Churchill Blvd Mayfield Bovaird Queen Steeles Derry Britannia Queensway Mississauga Rd Dixie Airport Gore Hwy 50 Cawthra

22 22 Derr y Britanni a Kennedy Gore Hwy50 WinstonChurchill Cawthra WinstonChurchill Quee n Derr y Queensw ay Proposed amendment to right-of-way for 2031.

23 40m – 50m 32m – 36m 20m – 30m Revised Regional Road Right-Of-Way Draft Schedule F Areas with Increased ROW Winston Churchill Blvd Mayfield Bovaird Queen Steeles Derry Britannia Queensway Mississauga Rd Dixie Airport Gore Hwy 50 Cawthra

24 24 6 lanes 4 lanes 6 lanes 4 lanes 3 lanes 2 lanes Approved Per 10-year Capital Plan Additional Improvements Required Short Term Recommended Regional Road Improvements Mayfield Hwy 50 Cawthra

25 25 6 lanes 4 lanes 6 lanes 4 lanes 3 lanes 2 lanes Approved Per DC Bylaw Additional Improvements Required Recommended Regional Road Improvements Medium Term Mayfield Airport Mayfield Winston Churchil Hwy 50 Gore Mavis Queen Bovaird Derry Britannia Queensway WCB

26 26 6 lanes 4 lanes 6 lanes 4 lanes 2 lanes Approved Per DC Bylaw (2021) Additional Improvements Required Recommended Regional Road Improvements Long Term Mayfield Queen


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