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Chapter 6 ©2001 South-Western College Publishing Pamela S. Lewis Stephen H. Goodman Patricia M. Fandt Slides Prepared by Bruce R. Barringer University of Central Florida Pamela S. Lewis Stephen H. Goodman Patricia M. Fandt Slides Prepared by Bruce R. Barringer University of Central Florida Effective Managerial Decision Making
Transparency 6-2 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Learning Objectives Slide 1 of 2 1.Describe the nature of the decision-making process and explain each of its seven steps. 2.Describe the rational-economic model of decision making. 3.Discuss the behavioral decision model and its related concepts of bounded rationality, intuition, satisficing, and escalation of commitment.
Transparency 6-3 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Learning Objectives Slide 2 of 2 4.Describe the participative approach to decision making. 5.Discuss the advantages and disadvantages of group decision making. 6.Explain the various techniques used to improve group decision making.
Transparency 6-4 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Decision Making Defined The process through which managers identify and resolve problems and capitalize on opportunities.
Transparency 6-5 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Seven Steps in the Decision-Making Process Identifying opportunities and diagnosing problems Identifying objectives Generating alternatives Evaluating alternatives Reaching decisions Choosing implementation strategies Monitoring and evaluating
Transparency 6-6 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Steps in the Decision-Making Process Slide 1 of 7 Step 1: Identifying Opportunities and Diagnosing Problems –The first step in the decision making process is the clear identification of opportunities or the diagnosis of problems that require a decision. –An assessment of opportunities and problems will only be as accurate as the information on which it is based.
Transparency 6-7 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Steps in the Decision-Making Process Slide 2 of 7 Step 2: Identifying Objectives –Objectives reflect the results the organization wants to attain. –Both the quantity and quality of the desired results should be specified, for these aspects of the objectives will ultimately guide the decision maker in selecting the appropriate course of action.
Transparency 6-8 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Steps in the Decision-Making Process Slide 3 of 7 Step 3: Generating Alternatives –Once an opportunity has been identified or a problem diagnosed correctly, a manager develops various ways to solve the problem and achieve objectives. –The alternatives can be standard and obvious as well as innovative and unique.
Transparency 6-9 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Steps in the Decision-Making Process Slide 4 of 7 Step 4: Evaluating Alternatives –The fourth step in the decision-making process involves determining the value or adequacy of the alternatives generated. –Predetermined decision criteria such as the quality desired, anticipated costs, benefits, uncertainties, and risks of each alternative may be used in the evaluation process.
Transparency 6-10 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Steps in the Decision-Making Process Slide 5 of 7 Step 5: Reaching Decisions –Decision making is commonly associated with making a final choice. –Although choosing an alternative would seem to be a straightforward proposition, in reality the choice is rarely clear-cut.
Transparency 6-11 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Steps in the Decision-Making Process Slide 6 of 7 Step 6: Choosing Implementation Strategies –The bridge between reaching a decision and evaluating the results is the implementation phase of the decision-making process. –The keys to effective implementation are: Sensitivity to those who will be affected by the decision. Proper planning and consideration of the resources necessary to carry out the decision.
Transparency 6-12 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Steps in the Decision-Making Process Slide 7 of 7 Step 7: Monitoring and Evaluating –No decision-making process is complete until the impact of the decision has been evaluated. –Managers must observe the impact of the decision as objectively as possible and take further corrective action if it becomes necessary.
Transparency 6-13 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Models of Decision Making Rational-Economic Model –A prescriptive framework of how a decision should be made that assumes managers have completely accurate information. Behavioral Decision Model –Unlike the rational-economic model, the behavioral decision-making model acknowledges human limitations that make rational decisions difficult to achieve.
Transparency 6-14 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Rational-Economic Model Slide 1 of 3 Concentrates on how decisions should be made, not on how they actually are made The model is based on the following assumptions: –Managers have “perfect information.” –Managers attempt to accomplish objectives that are known and agreed upon and have an extensive list of alternatives from which to choose.
Transparency 6-15 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Rational-Economic Model Slide 2 of 3 Assumptions of Rational-Economic Model (continued) –Managers are rational, systematic, and logical in assessing alternatives and their associated probabilities. –Managers work in the best interests of their organizations. –Ethical decisions do not arise in the decision- making process.
Transparency 6-16 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Rational-Economic Model Slide 3 of 3 Conclusion –As these assumptions suggest, the rational- economic model does not address the influences that affect decision environments or describe how managers actually make decisions. –As a consequence, in practice the model may not always be a realistic depiction of managerial behavior.
Transparency 6-17 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Behavioral Decision Model Slide 1 of 4 Unlike the rational-economic model, the behavioral decision model acknowledges human limitations. The behavioral decision model suggests that a person’s cognitive ability to process information is limited.
Transparency 6-18 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Behavioral Decision Model Slide 2 of 4 Concepts that are important to understand how we make decisions: Bounded Rationality Intuition Satisficing Escalation of Commitment
Transparency 6-19 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Behavioral Decision Model Slide 3 of 4 Bounded Rationality –Recognizes that people are limited by organizational constraints such as time, information, resources, and their own mental capabilities. Intuition –An unconscious analysis based on past experience.
Transparency 6-20 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Behavioral Decision Model Slide 4 of 4 Satisficing –The search and acceptance of something that is satisfactory rather than perfect or optimal. Escalation of Commitment –The tendency to increase commitment to a previously selected course of action beyond the level that would be expected if the manager followed an effective decision-making process.
Transparency 6-21 © 2001 South-Western Publishing What Makes a Quality Decision? Vigilance can make a good decision more likely. Vigilance means being concerned for and attentive to the correct decision-making procedures.
Transparency 6-22 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Group Considerations in Decision Making Group decision making is becoming more common as organizations focus on improving customer service and push decision making to lower levels.
Transparency 6-23 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Participative Models Slide 1 of 2 Vroom and Yetton Model –Helps managers determine when group decision making is appropriate. –The model postulates that there are five decision-making styles arranged along a continuum (shown in Figure 6.1 in the book). –The decision methods become progressively more participative as one moves from the highly autocratic style (AI) to the group style (GII), where the manager allows the group to decide.
Transparency 6-24 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Participative Models Slide 2 of 2 Vroom and Jago Model –According to the Vroom and Jago model, the nature of the decision itself determines the appropriate degree of participation, and they provide diagnostic questions to help managers select the appropriate level. In general, a participative decision style is desirable when subordinates have useful information and share the organization’s goals, when subordinates commitment to the decision is essential, when timeliness is not crucial, and when conflict is unlikely.
Transparency 6-25 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Impact of Group Size on Participation in Decision Making Slide 1 of 2 In deciding whether a participative model of decision making is appropriate, a manager must consider the size of the group.
Transparency 6-26 © 2001 South-Western Publishing In general, as group size increases, the following changes in the decision-making process are likely to be observed: –The leader becomes more psychologically distant from the other members. –The group’s tolerance of direction from the leader is greater, and the team’s decision making becomes more centralized. –The atmosphere is less friendly. –Rules and procedures become more formalized. Impact of Group Size on Participation in Decision Making Slide 2 of 2
Transparency 6-27 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Advantages of Group Decision Making Experience and expertise of several individuals available. More information, data, and facts accumulated. Problems viewed from several perspectives. Higher member satisfaction. Greater acceptance and commitment to decisions.
Transparency 6-28 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Disadvantages of Group Decision Making Greater time requirement Minority domination Compromise Concern for individual rather than group goals Social pressure to conform Groupthink
Transparency 6-29 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Groupthink Slide 1 of 3 An agreement-at-any-cost mentality that results in ineffective group decision making.
Transparency 6-30 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Groupthink Slide 2 of 3 Characteristics of Groupthink –Illusions of invulnerability –Collective rationalization –Belief in the morality of group decisions –Self-censorship –Illusion of unanimity in decision making –Pressure on members who express arguments
Transparency 6-31 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Groupthink Slide 3 of 3 Types of Defective Decisions –Incomplete survey of alternatives –Incomplete survey of goals –Failure to examine risks of preferred decisions –Poor information search –Failure to reappraise alternatives –Failure to develop contingency plans
Transparency 6-32 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Techniques for Quality in Group Decision Making Brainstorming Nominal Group Technique Delphi Technique Devil’s Advocacy Approach Dialectical Inquiry
Transparency 6-33 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Brainstorming A technique used to enhance creativity that encourages group members to generate as many novel ideas as possible on a given topic without evaluating them.
Transparency 6-34 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Rules of Brainstorming Freewheeling is encouraged. Group members will not criticize ideas as they are being generated. Quality is encouraged. The wilder the ideas the better. Piggyback on previously stated ideas. No ideas are evaluated until after all alternatives are generated.
Transparency 6-35 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Nominal Group Technique (NGT) A structured process designed to stimulate creative group decision making where agreement is lacking or the members have incomplete knowledge concerning the nature of the problem.
Transparency 6-36 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Delphi Technique Uses experts to make predictions and forecasts about future events without meeting face-to-face.
Transparency 6-37 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Devil’s Advocacy & Dialectical Inquiry Devil’s Advocacy –An individual or subgroup appointed to critique a proposed course of action and identify problems to consider before the decision is final. Dialectical Inquiry –Approaches a decision from two opposite points and structures a debate between conflicting views.
Transparency 6-38 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Guidelines for Decision Making by Richard Denhardt Slide 1 of 3 Be committed to the decision-making process; use it, and let data, not emotions, drive decisions. Seek employees’ input before you make key decisions. Believe in, foster, and support group decision making in the organization.
Transparency 6-39 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Guidelines for Decision Making by Richard Denhardt Slide 2 of 3 Believe that the best way to improve the quality of decisions is to ask and listen to employees who are doing the work. Seek and use high-quality information. Avoid “top-down” power-oriented decision making wherever possible.
Transparency 6-40 © 2001 South-Western Publishing Guidelines for Decision Making by Richard Denhardt Slide 3 of 3 Encourage decision-making creativity through risk taking, and be tolerant of honest mistakes. Develop an open atmosphere that encourages organizational members to offer and accept feedback.
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