Presentation on theme: "NAVY BUPERS 3 Current Fiscal Year Soft EAOS Metrics Unclassified Military Community Management BUPERS-34 07 March 2014."— Presentation transcript:
NAVY BUPERS 3 Current Fiscal Year Soft EAOS Metrics Unclassified Military Community Management BUPERS March 2014
NAVY BUPERS 3 N1 establishes Navy’s fiscal year (FY) reenlistment goals and reports those results monthly to the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) using the Current Fiscal Year SEAOS Reenlistment methodologies and metrics This methodology change to how Navy establishes and reports reenlistment goals to OSD was fully implemented in FY13 to better align with N1 FY end strength targets and enlisted community health The following slides define the components that make up the CFY SEAOS Reenlistment metrics and measures, as well as explain the difference between CFY SEAOS Reenlistment measures and the previously reported Aggregate Reenlistment measures BLUF
NAVY BUPERS 3 Current Fiscal Year (CFY) SEAOS Inventory: All enlisted Sailors with a Soft End of Active Obligated Service (SEAOS) in the fiscal year (FY) as of 01 October of the current FY. This includes all Sailors that must make a stay or leave decision before the end of the current fiscal year (SEAOS on or before 30 September of the current FY). In many cases, the SEAOS will be the same as the (hard) EAOS unless the member has a pending unexecuted extension. Why is this important? This population will have a direct impact on the end of the year enlisted population of the Navy, which must be reported to OSD. All Sailors that have a SEAOS past 30 September are already obligated to stay until at least the next fiscal year. Knowing who is already obligated to stay will then allow Navy leadership to determine how many of the decision makers need to stay to maintain long term and short term Fleet manning. At an individual command level, this population includes only Sailors that are required to make a stay or leave decision based on their current contract ending in the CFY. CFY SEAOS Reenlistment (CFY SEAOS RE): Formal reenlistment greater than or equal to 24 months by a Sailor in the CFY SEAOS Inventory. CFY SEAOS Long Term Extenstion (CFY SEAOS LTE): An extension of service greater than or equal to 24 months by a Sailor in the CFY SEAOS Inventory. NOTE: LTEs are no longer authorized, but are included to capture previous data and rare LTE transaction events. CFY SEAOS STE: Extension of service less than 24 months that will move the Sailor’s SEAOS past 30 September of the current FY. This Sailor will be on active service at the end of the FY. However, since they did not reenlist, the Navy cannot count on their service long term for managing Fleet manning. CFY Zone: Measured based on each Sailor’s length of service on the date of their SEAOS. (CFY Zone = SEAOS Date – Active Duty Service Date) Current Fiscal Year SEAOS Metric Definitions
NAVY BUPERS 3 Current Fiscal Year (CFY) Reenlistment Rate (CFY SEAOS RE Rate): Measures the reenlistment behavior of Sailors who have a SEAOS decision in the current fiscal year. These reenlistments will be used to manage short and long-term Fleet manning. CFY SEAOS REs/LTEs CFY SEAOS REs/LTEs + CFY SEAOS STEs + CFY SEAOS Losses CFY SEAOS REs – Reenlistments by Sailors in the CFY SEAOS Inventory CFY SEAOS LTEs – Long Term Extension by Sailors in the CFY SEAOS Inventory CFY SEAOS STEs – Short term extensions that cross into the next fiscal year by Sailors in the CFY SEAOS Inventory CFY SEAOS Losses –Sailors that leave enlisted active service and are in the CFY SEAOS Inventory CFY SEAOS Reenlistment Rate % CFY SEAOS RE Rate =
NAVY BUPERS 3 Aggregate Reenlistment Rate: Measures the reenlistment behavior of all Sailors who reenlisted for 24 months or more to those that left the Navy as an EOAS loss, regardless of the length of time remaining on contract. REs/LTEs* REs/LTEs* + EAOS Losses *REs/LTEs = CFY SEAOS REs/LTEs + Pull Forward REs/LTEs REs/LTEs - Reenlistments and Long Term Extensions by all Sailors regardless of SEAOS. These include CFY and Pull Forward REs/LTEs. CFY SEAOS REs/LTEs - Reenlistments and Long Term Extensions by Sailors in the CFY SEAOS Inventory Pull Forward REs/LTEs - Reenlistments and Long Term Extensions by Sailors with a SEAOS that is outside of the current FY. These sailors may reenlist for reasons such as SRB and PRD. EAOS Losses –Sailors that leave enlisted active service at the end of their obligated service Aggregate Reenlistment Rate % Aggregate RE Rate =
NAVY BUPERS 3 = = =.4865 = 48.65% CFY SEAOS RE Rate = CFY SEAOS RE Rate CFY SEAOS REs/LTEs CFY SEAOS REs/LTEs+CFY SEAOS STEs+CFY SEAOS Losses CFY SEAOS RE Rate = CFY SEAOS Inventory FY14: All enlisted Sailors with a SEAOS 01 OCT 2013 – 30 SEP 2014 as of 01 October 2013 Aggregate vs. CFY SEAOS Reenlistment Rate Comparison Although all reenlistments aid leadership in the long term manning plans, the aggregate reenlistment rate has significant pull forward behavior that severely masks the retention behavior of Sailors that must make a stay or leave decision before the end of the current fiscal year. CFY SEAOS RE Rate Summary: The CFY SEAOS Reenlistment Rate provides a picture of the overall population of personnel that must make a stay/leave decision in the current FY. Using the example above, a 48.65% reenlistment rate would indicate that less than half of the Sailors that were required to make a stay or leave decision actually reenlisted or long term extended. This may affect qualifications and command readiness. Observing this rate early in the FY will allow commands time to make adjustments and encourage quality Sailors to reenlist for long term command and Fleet personnel management planning. Aggregate RE Rate Summary: The Aggregate RE Rate provides a picture of all personnel that have reenlisted or were at the end of their contract and left the Navy in a FY. Using the above example for FY14, observing a RE rate of 74.36% would appear that the command is retaining quality personnel and no “red” flag would be raised that retention is an issue. However, 11 of the 29 personnel that reenlisted would have still been on the command’s inventory at the end of the FY regardless, resulting in an inflated (or misleading) RE rate. CFY SEAOS Inventory- FY14 FY 15 or later SEAOS CFY SEAOS RE/LTE FY14= (18) Pull Forward RE/LTE from Later FY = (11) CFY SEAOS STE FY14= (4) EAOS Loss in the CFY SEAOS Inventory FY14= (10) Non-EAOS Loss in the CFY SEAOS Inventory FY14= (5) Aggregate RE Rate CFY SEAOS REs/LTEs + Pull Forward REs/LTEs CFY SEAOS REs/LTEs + Pull Forward REs/LTEs + EAOS Losses Aggregate RE Rate = = = =.7436 = 74.36% Aggregate RE Rate = Aggregate RE Inventory FY14: This method does not directly correspond to a clearly defined population, or to continuation decisions that have an impact on the end of fiscal year manning.
NAVY BUPERS 3 Example 1:Sailor’s initial enlistment: 15 AUG 2008 Sailor’s SEAOS: 26 AUG 2014 Sailor Reenlists: 01 JUL 2014 New SEAOS: 30 JUN 2017 Is the Sailor in the FY14 CFY SEAOS Inventory? Yes. This Sailor must make a decision to stay or leave the Navy by their SEAOS of 26 AUG 2014, which is in the current FY. This Sailor is part of the CFY eligible population. Where is the Sailor counted for the CFY Reenlistment Rate? Zone B. At their current SEAOS, this Sailor will have been in the Navy 6 years and 11 days. That puts this Sailor in Zone B for the CFY metrics, regardless of when this Sailor actually reenlists. Example 2: Sailor’s initial enlistment : 03 OCT 2009 Sailor’s SEAOS: 02 OCT 2015 Sailor Reenlists: 29 SEP 2014 New SEAOS: 28 SEP 2017 Is the Sailor in the FY14 CFY SEAOS Inventory? No. This Sailor did not have to officially make a stay or leave decision until their SEAOS, which is in FY 15. This Sailor was already counted for the end of the FY enlisted population, so this reenlistment does not affect this FY. Determining Eligibility and Zone Examples for FY 14