Key Points : Formulas and approaches vary Overview by region (8) Further refinement by county, urbanized area, small urban area and provider service area.
Urbanized Area: Designated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census as having a population of 50,000 or more. There are 4 such areas in Maine: Bangor/Brewer Area Lewiston-Auburn Area Portland Area (now classified as a TMA-Transportation Management area under MAP 21) Kittery Area Rural Area: All non-urbanized areas3
TCRP Report 161 Methods for Forecasting Demand and Quantifying Need for Rural Passenger Transportation: Final Workbook Transit Cooperative Research Program Washington, D.C. 2013
Persons residing in households owning no automobile: Derived from Census (American Community Survey five- year estimates, 2008-2012, File B08201). Key question: How much transit service would be needed to fully address the mobility needs of transit dependent persons?
Number of Households having no vehicle X mobility Gap What is the Mobility Gap? Number of trips/household/day in a household with one vehicle (5.0) minus number of trips/household/day with no vehicle (3.3) = 1.7 Mobility Gap of 1.7 is an estimate for New England.
Number of no-vehicle households: 2,472 Daily mobility need: (2,472) x 1.7 = 4,202 trips Annual Mobility Need = 4,202 trips x 300 = 1,260,600 trips.
Quote from page 17 of the TCRP Report: “In the testing of these suggested methodologies with a number of rural transit agencies, it was found that, at best, only about 20% of the mobility gap trip-based need was met.”
The following approach was developed in consultation with the Metropolitan Planning Organizations of Maine’s urbanized areas. The mobility gap is based on the 2009 National Household Travel Survey, Federal Highway Administration. 10 trips/day for all-vehicle households 4.8 trips/day for no-vehicle households = gap of 5.2 trips/day/no-vehicle household Includes trips by all modes. PACTS uses a different methodology, but the mobility gap is roughly the same (5.02).
Number of trips provided includes total of transit and MaineCare trips. Trip data includes fixed route, flex route and MaineCare (agency vehicle, volunteers, friend and family). Includes only land-based transit (ferry trips not included) Seasonal service data not included Intercity trips included in county of origin Trip data taken from Locally Coordinated Transit Plans and municipal ride reports from providers.
County Annual Need = 1,260,600 Trips Caribou, Houlton, Presque Isle Annual Need = 642,600 Trips = 51% of county need. In FY 2012, ARTS provided 278,172 trips, which was 22% of need.
Hancock County Annual Need = 705,330 Trips Ellsworth and Bucksport Annual Need = 229,800 trips or 33% of County need. In FY 2012, Downeast Transportation and Washington Hancock Community Agency provided 115,027 trips, or 16% of county need.
Washington County Annual Need = 594,600 Trips. Calais, Eastport, Lubec and Machias Annual Need = 282,600 trips or 48% of County need. In FY 2012, WHCA and West’s provided 81,317 trips, which was 14% of Washington County need.
Penobscot County urbanized area (UZA) includes Bangor, Brewer, parts of Hampden, Old Town, Orono, Veazie (roughly coincides with Community Connector service area). UZA has 3,112 no vehicle households, or 63% of County total of 4,943 no-vehicle households UZA need is 4,854,700 trips (based on daily mobility gap of 5.2). In FY 2012, Community Connector, Penquis and Cyr provided 1,185,163 trips in UZA, or 24% of need.
Remainder of Penobscot County Annual Need for rural (non-urbanized) portion of county = 933,900 trips. Millinocket Annual = 126,600 trips, or 14% of need for rural portion of County. In FY 2012, Penquis provided 238,444 trips in remainder of Penobscot County, which was 26% of rural county need.
Piscataquis County Annual Need = 276,930 trips. In FY 2012, Penquis provided 43,502 trips, or 16% of need. No Small Urban Areas in County.
Kennebec County Annual Need = 2,131,290 trips. Kennebec Explorer Service Area Annual Need: Augusta, Hallowell, Gardiner, Waterville, Winslow = 1,449,600 trips, or 68% of county need. In FY 2012, KVCAP provided 210,215 rides in Kennebec Explorer service area, which was 15% of need.
Remainder of Kennebec County Annual Need (exclusive of Kennebec Explorer area) = 600,690 trips In FY 2012, KVCAP provided 98,653 trips, or 16% of need.
Somerset County Annual Need = 766,540 trips Skowhegan Annual Need = 262,800 trips, or 34% of County need. In FY 2012, KVCAP provided 136,829 trips, or 18% of total county need.
Knox County Annual Need = 532,440 trips. Rockland Annual Need = 213,600 trips, or 40% of County need. In FY 2012, Coastal Trans provided 37,166 trips, or 7% of the annual county need.
Lincoln County Annual Need = 191,250 trips. In FY 2012, Coastal Trans provided 23,178 trips, or 12% of the annual county need.
Sagadahoc County Annual Need = 486,000 trips. Bath Annual Need = 318,900 trips, or 66% of county need. In FY 2012, Coastal Trans provided 14,055 trips in Bath, and Bath City Bus provided 13,661, for a total of 27,716 trips, or 9% of the City’s needs. Remainder of Sagadahoc County. In FY 2012 in the rest of the county, Coastal Trans provided 12,791 trips, or 8% of the remaining need.
Waldo County Annual Need = 540,000 trips. Belfast = 104,700 trips, or 19% of county need. In FY 2014, Waldo Community Action Partners (WCAP) provided 29,847 trips in Belfast, which was 29% of the City’s needs. IN FY 2012, WCAP provided 85,162 trips in the remainder of the County, which was 20% of the need.
Cumberland County Portland UZA includes Cape Elizabeth, Portland, South Portland, Westbrook, and parts of Cumberland, Falmouth, Freeport, Gorham, North Yarmouth, Scarborough, Windham and Yarmouth (also Biddeford, Saco and Old Orchard Beach – profiled under Region 8). UZA has 8,130 no vehicle households, or 86% of County total of 9,448 no-vehicle households. UZA need is 12,195,000 annual trips (based on daily mobility gap of 5.0).
METRO service area (Portland, Westbrook, Falmouth) Annual Need = 9,600,000 trips. In FY 2012, METRO provided 1,464,643 trips, or 15% of service area need (RTP trips not included in this total). Note: Portland has 5,478 no-vehicle households (58% of County total of 9,448). South Portland Bus Service area, the annual need is 964,500 trips. In FY 2012, South Portland Bus Service provided 247,370, or 26% of the City’s needs (RTP trips not included in this total).
Brunswick Annual Need = 1,281,000 trips. In FY 2012, Coastal Trans provided 26,722 trips, or 2% of the need.
Androscoggin County Lewiston-Auburn urbanized area (UZA) includes Lewiston, Auburn, Lisbon and parts of Sabattus. UZA has 3,856 no vehicle households, or 89% of County total of 4,329 no-vehicle households. UZA need is 5,784,000 annual trips (based on daily mobility gap of 5.0).
Citylink service area. Lewiston/Auburn has 3,470 no vehicle households, or 80% of County total of 4,329 no-vehicle households. In Lewiston and Auburn, the annual need is 5,205,000 trips. In FY 2012, Citylink, Western Maine Transportation Services (WMTS) and Community Concepts provided 572,490 trips in Lewiston/Auburn, or 11% of the annual need. Remainder of Androscoggin County, Annual Need = 241,200 trips. In FY 2012, Community Concepts and WMTS provided 69,065 trips in the rural portion of Androscoggin County, or 29% of need.
Franklin County Annual Need = 410,100 trips. Farmington Annual Need = 191,700 trips, or 47% of county need. In FY 2012, Community Concepts and WMTS provided 90,833 trips, or 22% of need.
Oxford County Annual Need = 772,800 trips. Rumford Annual Need = 220,800 trips, or 29% of County need. In FY 2012, Community Concepts and WMTS provided 28,258 trips in Rumford, which was 13% of Rumford’s needs. In FY 2012, Community Concepts and Western Maine Transportation Services provided 178,367 trips in the County, or 23% of the need.
York County ShuttleBus service area. Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach (part of Portland UZA) have 1,679 no-vehicle households, or 42% of the county total (3,981). Biddeford, Saco, OOB Annual need = 2,619,300 trips. In FY 2012, ShuttleBus and York County Community Action Corporation (YCCAC) provided 381,421 trips in the three communities, which was 15% of the need.
The Kittery Area UZA includes parts of Berwick, Eliot, Lebanon, Kittery and South Berwick. The UZA has 505 no-vehicle households, or 13% of the county total. UZA Annual Need = 787,800 trips. Sanford Annual Need = 367,200 trips. In FY 2012, YCCAC provided 111,386 trips, which was 30% of the need.
Remainder of York County. In the remainder of York County, Annual Need = 549,300 trips. In FY 2012, YCCAC provided 90,264 trips to this area (exclusive of UZA towns and Sanford), which was 16% of the need.
Need is one thing, but how much transit will the general public use in rural areas? TCRP Report has a formula for estimating that in rural areas: Trips/year = 2.2 x population 60 and over + 5.21 x mobility limited population 18-64 + 1.52 x residents in households with no vehicle
American Community Survey tables B08201 (Household Size by Vehicles Available B01001 Sex by Age S1810 Disability Characteristics Locally Coordinated Transit Plans Provider municipal Ride reports
Reg.System% of Demand Met 2Downeast Transportation27% (149% with JARC) 4Kennebec Explorer158% 5Bath City Bus187% 6Brunswick Explorer177% 8Sanford Transit110%
Reg. County or Area% of general public demand met 1Aroostook83% 2Hancock & Washington15% 3Penobscot, Piscataquis excl. of Community Connector area 3% 4Kennebec & Somerset excl. of Kennebec Explorer 2% 5Knox, Lincoln, Sagadahoc exclusive of Bath 46% 5Waldo County36% 6Cumberland excl. of Metro, S Portland, Brundswick 29% 7Androscoggin, Franklin, Oxford excl. of Lewiston-Auburn 12% 8York excl. of ShuttleBus area, Sanford transit 4% (67% with WAVE)
A technical memorandum will be prepared describing the cost to bring all MaineDOT funded services up to a Maine standard as determined by discovery of the best performing services for each service type. The relative percentage of demand met by applying higher level of productivity of the services will be described.
MaineDOT Strategic Transit Plan 2025 February 2014 – January 2015 Meetings and Critical Activities ( hard copy )
45 Conceptual Tasks MaineDOT Strategic Transit Plan - 2025 Peter Schauer Associates
April 8, 2014 9:00 AM - Noon DOT Room 216 Progress Report Report on Rider Survey Refinement of Inventory of Services and Demand