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Unconstrained Investment and Portfolio Construction Douglas McDowell Head of Client Investment Strategies THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT FOR RETAIL CLIENTS.

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Presentation on theme: "Unconstrained Investment and Portfolio Construction Douglas McDowell Head of Client Investment Strategies THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT FOR RETAIL CLIENTS."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Unconstrained Investment and Portfolio Construction Douglas McDowell Head of Client Investment Strategies THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT FOR RETAIL CLIENTS

3 GLOBAL STOCKMARKET RETURNS SINCE THE START OF THE DECADE Source: Bloomberg as at Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Neptune funds do not replicate a benchmark and holdings may therefore vary from those in the index quoted. For the reason the above comparison index should be used for reference only. %

4 TAKE A GLOBAL UNCONSTRAINED* APPROACH Global sector research and understanding of the macro environment is essential to identify future sector and stock opportunities Exposure to both non-OECD and OECD economies allows better risk management Industry developments over the last 30 years and, in particular, the craving for ‘measuring’ a manager’s output has led to them, and all those offering, chasing short-term relative return by constructing sub-optimal portfolios based on indices or benchmarks and thereby putting an unnecessary cap on the generation of long-term absolute return These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views. *Subject to prescribed regulatory limits.

5 UNCONSTRAINED* INVESTMENT BASED ON CONVICTION Investing in best ideas, holding the stocks you want, in the quantities you want, based on your conviction The resulting increase in active risk may increase expected return Strategic risk is the permanent loss of capital Active risk is the short-term volatility around an index or benchmark Accepting greater active risk (higher volatility) can lead to higher return (and a lowering of strategic risk) Allows you to take a pragmatic view of absolute diversification It allows you to take a long-term view *Subject to prescribed regulatory limits. These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views.

6 A DIFFERENT APPROACH TO INVESTING Global equities are arguably best viewed on a sectoral basis Fundamental research focused on identifying the ‘winners’ in each industry Investors must understand the outlook for global sectors/industries, their key influences and likely development before assessing an individual company’s likely operational performance vs. other potential investments, both inside and outside that sector It is unlikely that any company, however well managed, can perform well vs. all other potential investments in an industry whose background is poor Without a clear understanding of the industry in which it operates, it is impossible to fully understand the prospects of a company operating within it These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views.

7 A SECTOR BASED APPROACH Sector allocation is the key determinant of portfolio construction and, as a by-product, regional allocation Sectoral reviews identify their current structure, prevailing 3-5 year trends and global opportunities Within the most promising sectors, it is the global companies that tend to dominate and investors should seek to add value by detailed analysis at the stock level to identify the most suitable investments. The aim of individual company research is to find those companies most likely to benefit from the sector/industry trends identified in sector research These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views.

8 PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION AND THE REAL WORLD Beware of country-based benchmarking Too much attention to benchmarks can constrain idea generation and performance National or regional silos can give you a narrow, historically-based focus Sector-based research is essential with increasingly ‘globalised’, interrelated economies A thorough understanding of global growth drivers alongside industry dynamics leads to real understanding Real understanding leads to real conviction Meaningful positions based on knowledge of the company, its peers and its industry These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views.

9 IT’S NOT A BI-POLAR WORLD Emerging markets (EM) vs. developed markets (DM) dichotomy is the received wisdom In reality EM/DM remain interconnected in complex ways Emerging markets are a collection of vastly different economies Developed economies’ growth is patchy, but there are some areas of strength and they are still the home of many fast-growing global industry leaders Investing in emerging markets can involve a higher degree of risk. Less developed markets are generally less well regulated than the UK and do not have the strict standards of accounting and transparency present in developed markets. Some emerging markets may have relatively unstable governments, economies based on only a few industries and markets that trade only a limited number of securities. As a consequence, both the value of investments made and the ease of which the underlying securities can be bought and sold may be adversely effected.

10 ECONOMIES ARE NOT MARKETS Source: Google Images, July OECD economies are predominantly Domestic Consumer-orientated Net borrowers OECD markets are predominantly Global Business-orientated Net savers

11 INVESTMENT IN COMPANIES, NOT IN COUNTRIES Japan’s business community ranked 1 st overall (World Economic Forum Report ) 1 st in 4/9 categories Top 4 in three more 9 th and 13 th in the other two categories Many Japanese firms: Dominate their global sectors Higher exposure to non-OECD markets vs. their US/EU rivals Translational gains from yen weakness Sales and operating profits derived from overseas (41% & 44% respectively). Source: Neptune Research & Nikkei 225 Index as at 2010.

12 ASSESSING POTENTIAL GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES Reflect the well-diversified and increasingly inter-dependant economic growth across both developed and emerging markets Understand both the drivers and distribution of future growth Equally important to understand the varying stages of economic growth of emerging markets… …and their idiosyncrasies The BRICs are not all same and they are often very different from countries on the ‘frontier’ These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views.

13 STOCK SELECTION Company analysis assesses the growth outlook over 3-5 years, focusing on ROE and ROCE, margin history, balance sheet strength and free cash-flow and management’s record in capital allocation Those companies (potential investments) thus identified are then subject to a proprietary valuation tool which is the prime determinate of ultimate inclusion in a portfolio The ultimate determinate of a holding’s size is the strength of conviction Aiming to buy strong companies within preferred sectors at good valuations, coupled with the rigid sell discipline is the bottom-up contributor to performance These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views.

14 PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION AND CONTROLS Truly unconstrained*, with a significant tracking error Weightings not based on index weightings but on conviction Entire process focused on portfolio risk Sector constraints and guidelines No geographic restrictions Where a company is listed is largely an accident of history *Subject to prescribed regulatory limits.

15 EMERGING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES BRIC’s economic strength is dominating the outlook for global growth Steep change in balance of economic power We believe BRICs will account for two-thirds of global growth over the next 5 yrs Economic outlook remains robust, especially when compared to developed markets No constraints from deleveraging → new credit cycle beginning Rapidly reducing reliance on OECD for growth Divergent emerging vs. developed market performance a reflection of misunderstanding/distrust of Chinese economic policy Source: Neptune Research, August These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views. Past performance is no guide to future performance. Investing in emerging markets can involve a higher degree of risk. Less developed markets are generally less well regulated than the UK and do not have the strict standards of accounting and transparency present in developed markets. Some emerging markets may have relatively unstable governments, economies based on only a few industries and markets that trade only a limited number of securities. As a consequence, both the value of investments made and the ease of which the underlying securities can be bought and sold may be adversely effected. Please remember that forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

16 THE WORLD OF EMERGING STOCKMARKETS 1991 Source: Emerging Stock Markets Factbook 2011 Market capitalisation in US$ billions 16

17 ... AND 20 YEARS LATER Czech Republic, $53 bn Thailand, $276 bn Brazil, $1,532 bn Colombia, $212 bn Chile, $337 bn Mexico, $458 bn Peru, $91 bn Morocco, $66 bn Egypt, $70 bn Hungary, $33 bn Russia, $1,048 bn South Korea, $1,140 bn Taiwan, $875 bn Malaysia, $435 bn China, $3,768 bn India, $1,506 bn Poland, $212 bn Indonesia, $407 bn Turkey, $282 bn South Africa, $515 bn Emerging markets total market capitalisation in 2011 Source: Bloomberg, June 2011

18 Source: Neptune as at This Fund may invest more than 35% in government and public securities in a number of jurisdictions. For further details please see the Prospectus. NEPTUNE GLOBAL EQUITY FUND ASSET ALLOCATION Research process leads to conviction in leading companies US50.5% UK9.1% China10.9% Russia12.7% Hong Kong5.0% Japan3.3% Norway2.5% France2.3% Switzerland1.6% Mexico1.5% Cash0.6%

19 TOP DECILE IN 8/10 CALENDAR YEARS ENABLING A RETURN OF 165% SINCE LAUNCH (4/91) PeriodNeptune Global Equity FundIMA Sector AverageMSCI World To % returnQuartile ranking% return YTD Source: Lipper as at , A Accumulation share class performance, IMA Global sector, in sterling with net income reinvested and no initial charges. Calendar year performance as at the end of each year. The performance of other share classes may differ. Launch date: This Fund may have a high historic volatility rating and past performance is not a guide to future performance. Investments in emerging markets are higher risk and potentially more volatile than those in established markets. The value of an investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations and your clients may not get back the original amount invested. IMA sector averages and rankings may change at any time as a result of closure, movement between sectors or price amendments by competitor funds. The discrete calendar year’s performance provided represents the Fund’s ranking at the close of that particular year. Neptune funds are not tied to replicating a benchmark and holdings can therefore vary from those in the index quoted. For this reason the comparison index should be used for reference only.

20 NEPTUNE GLOBAL EQUITY FUND LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION Source: Neptune and Bloomberg as at in local currency. This Fund may have a high historic volatility rating and past performance is not a guide to future performance. Investments in emerging markets are higher risk and potentially more volatile than those in established markets. The value of an investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations and your clients may not get back the original amount invested. Neptune funds are not tied to replicating a benchmark and holdings can therefore vary from those in the index quoted. For this reason the comparison index should be used for reference only. %

21 Appendix 21

22 NEPTUNE INVESTMENT TEAM Mark Martin Thomas Barber Healthcare Sector James Dowey Chief Economist Paul Caruana-Galizia Economist Felix Wintle Head of US Equities Healthcare Sector Rob Burnett Head of European Equities Financials Sector Ted Alexander Kunal Desai William Balfour Technology & Telecoms Sector Chris Taylor Head of Research Thomas Sinclair William Rice Ben Pennington Oil & Gas Sector Robin Geffen CEO Fund Manager, Global Equities Douglas McDowell Head of Client Investment Strategies Ewan Thompson Head of EM Equities Shelley McKeaveney Ben Myers Mining & Metals Sector Emma Stanford Thomas Smith Chemicals & Utilities Sector Douglas Turnbull George Boyd-Bowman Ian Sealey Financials Sector Rebecca Young Scott MacLennan Industrials Sector James Hackman Leonard Cripps Kate Trowbridge David Nelson Consumer Sectors Alex Breese Head of UK Equities Industrials Sector

23 Common sense approach Efficient Diversification Concentrated portfolios Investment restrictions Pre-trade checks GLOBAL PORTFOLIO Country Reviews Global Sector Reports Company Valuations WEEKLY MEETING CYCLE Highest Conviction Stocks PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION PORTFOLIO MONITORING AND RISK CONTROL Ongoing monitoring Target prices Sell discipline Performance and risk analysis Post-trade checks and review I N V E S T M E N T U N I V E R S E 3 PARALLEL STREAMS OF RESEARCH INVESTMENT PROCESS OVERVIEW Global Sector Matrix

24 CONTACT DETAILS Neptune Investment Management Limited 3 Shortlands, London, W6 8DA Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Phil Horton, Sales Manager, Nationals & Networks+44 (0) Catherine Ferguson, Sales Support+44 (0) Calls may be recorded for monitoring and training purposes and for your protection

25 IMPORTANT INFORMATION 25 This document is issued by Neptune Investment Management Limited (“Neptune”), 3 Shortlands, London, W6 8DA which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority, FSA number Details of Neptune's regulatory status and authorisation by regulators in other countries are available from us on request. The Neptune web address is Some information and statistical data herein has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but in no way are warranted by us as to their accuracy or completeness. These are Neptune’s views and as such this document is deemed to be impartial research. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of Neptune's views. Neptune Investment Management Limited has not produced this report for Retail Clients. It is for private circulation to Investment Professionals only and is not for onward distribution. All information is given in good faith but without any warranty. Neptune Funds are available to any persons that may be marketed to under the Financial Services and Markets Act (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order Retail Clients should contact their Independent Financial Adviser or other authorised intermediary. This communication is only intended for persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations. The provision of investment services may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. You are required to acquaint yourself with any local laws and restrictions on the availability of any services described. Please check whether such products are available in the country in which your clients are resident. None of the Neptune products are available to residents in the United States. Some Neptune funds may have a high historic volatility rating and past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations and your clients may not get back the original amount invested. These funds may invest more than 35% in government and public securities in a number of jurisdictions. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investments in emerging markets are potentially higher risk than those in developed markets. The current Prospectus, Key Investor Information and Supplementary Information Documents and most recent annual and semi-annual reports can be obtained by calling or downloaded from Any past performance data that has not been shown is due to the information not being available. Neptune does not give investment advice and only provides information on Neptune products.

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