Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

February 07 Brazil economic outlook. Higher global growth leading to higher commodity prices.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "February 07 Brazil economic outlook. Higher global growth leading to higher commodity prices."— Presentation transcript:

1 February 07 Brazil economic outlook

2 Higher global growth leading to higher commodity prices

3 China’s leading role on current commodity cycle Log (CRB metals)

4 Benefiting from this benign scenario

5 How Brazil has used these larger funds? Source: Central Bank

6 How Brazil has used these larger funds? Source: Central Bank

7 How Brazil has used these larger funds? Source: Central Bank

8 Result: low risk & strong currency Sources: Central Bank, Bloomberg & Banco Itaú

9 Source: IBGE Inflation convergence Headline and core CPI (% y-o-y)

10 Falling but still high real rates

11 Sources: IMF & IBGE Growth has been disappointing

12 Public accounts tell us good stories Source: Central Bank

13 PAC: Acceleration Growth Program Fiscal accounts –Primary surplus reduction due to public investment increase (0.5% of GDP) –Payroll expenditure control: inflation plus 1,5% –Minimum wage increase for the next 5 years : negative impact on social security accounts –Small tax exemptions –Social security reform – Unlikely in this administration

14 PAC: Acceleration Growth Program Increase of regional government borrowing limits to housing, water & sewage investments Better regulatory environment –Natural gas –Regulatory agencies –Environment

15 Institutional Framework Congressional autonomy Judiciary independence Rule of law

16 Investment grade: how far is it?

17 Baseline scenario

18

19 For further information: Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang Tomás Málaga


Download ppt "February 07 Brazil economic outlook. Higher global growth leading to higher commodity prices."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google