Presentation on theme: "Dr. Troy C. Blanchard Department of Sociology Louisiana State University."— Presentation transcript:
Dr. Troy C. Blanchard Department of Sociology Louisiana State University
This work is a product of a collaborative effort between LSU and the State of Louisiana to provide a variety of agencies and organizations at the state and local level with timely demographic data on our state.
Background Information What are population projections and who uses them? Who projects populations and how is it accomplished? How do we interpret a population projection? What are the important findings from the 2010- 2030 population projections? What new trends are emerging that may require additional research?
A population projection is a simulation of what a population will look like at some point in the future based on a set of assumptions. Projections are used by a wide variety of entities: Organizations serving the elderly (Healthcare, Councils on Aging) use projections to identify areas with a fast growing elderly population. Businesses use projections to identify a particular customer base. Economic development groups use projections to identify the demand for jobs.
U.S. Census Bureau calculates population projections for the U.S. and individual states. Sub-state projections are not a part of the U.S. Census Bureau mission: Parishes Cities/Towns/Villages School Districts Most states develop some type of projection effort to inform policy makers. Louisiana: Department of Administration, Office of Electronic Services, Louisiana State Data Center
Population at Time 1 Population at Time 2 Calculate number of deaths Calculate number of births Calculate net migration (inmigrants- outmigrants)
Use past trends to predict future. Why past trends? Fertility and mortality patterns generally stable. Migration is the least stable of the three components that influence population size, so we use long term trends (5 or 10 year averages). Migration varies due to a wide variety of issues and is difficult to predict: Job opportunities Quality of education Housing stock Access to natural amenities Family, social, and cultural pulls
Example… The state of Louisiana is projected to grow by 107,920 persons between 2010 and 2015. Caveat #1: If recent fertility, mortality, and migration trends remain the same, this will be the outcome. Caveat #2: Not set in stone, if something happens that changes the migration, fertility, or mortality rates, the outcome will change.
A large share of South Louisiana Parishes are growing. I-10/I-12 Corridor Metropolitan Areas Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans Growth in North Louisiana Parishes is concentrated. Shreveport Metropolitan Areas Alexandria Metropolitan Areas
Top growth parishes: Madison (Tallulah Micropolitan Area-Delta Region) Tensas (Rural-Delta Region) East Carroll (Rural-Delta Region) Winn (Rural-Central LA) Concordia (Natchez, MS-LA Micropolitan Area-Delta Region) Vernon (Fort Polk/DeRidder Micropolitan Area- Central LA) Catahoula (Rural-Central LA)
Region % Change 2010-2020 Alexandria Metro2.37% Baton Rouge Metro9.39% Houma Metro3.65% Lafayette Metro4.03% Lake Charles Metro-1.16% Monroe Metro-1.75% New Orleans Metro12.01% Shreveport Metro2.57%
Emerging population trend for Louisiana is the growing Hispanic population. Grew by 4.83% from 2007-2008. Nonhispanic Whites-.14% Nonhispanic Black-1.64% Growth occurring in both fast and slow growth areas: The Lake Charles Metro leads the state with 7.7% growth in Hispanic, but is not a fast growing metro (<1% between 2007 and 2008).
Percent Growth in Hispanic Population for LA Metropolitan Areas