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PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January 2009 World Bank Climate Investment Funds Report of PPCR Expert Group on Country Selection Process 27 January.

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Presentation on theme: "PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January 2009 World Bank Climate Investment Funds Report of PPCR Expert Group on Country Selection Process 27 January."— Presentation transcript:

1 PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January 2009 World Bank Climate Investment Funds Report of PPCR Expert Group on Country Selection Process 27 January 2009

2 1 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Remit Identify 5-10 countries or groups or countries for participation in PPCR Address a number of criteria:  vulnerability  eligibility  country preparedness & rapid results  country distribution (regional)  Hazard types  Coherence & value addition  Replicability & sustainability  Scalability & development impact Context

3 2 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Addressing criteria in ToR Criteria Hazard (V), vulnerability (I) & preparedness (III) addressed explicitly Country distribution (IV) addressed through choice of regions Eligibility (II) considered - countries not selected if ineligible Replicability & sustainability (VII) related to regional contexts Scalability & development impact (VIII) function of development & hazard contexts Coherence & value addition (VI) depends on specific national contexts To a significant extent, VI, VII & VIII will depend on nature of programmes & projects supported, & how they are implemented - cannot pre-judge

4 3 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Practical considerations Short timescale How to bring some coherence & transparency to process? What data to use? How to deploy data? Problems with indicator-driven approaches… How to address criteria? How to ensure selection relevant to climate change? How to approach the problem?

5 4 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Risk assessment approach Address climate change risks faced by countries Risk arises from interaction of hazards with underlying vulnerability The EG’s approach Hazard as an entry point for analysis STEP 1 Identify long-term, large-scale climate change hazards Select climate change “hot-spots” where these hazards are high STEP 2 Identify which countries are most vulnerable to hazard(s) in question  Use indicators relevant to region, hazard & development context

6 5 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Hazards are not just about extremes and variability

7 6 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Climate change “hot-spots” in Africa Source: IPCC (2007) North Africa / Maghreb Extreme desiccation - risks to water availability, agriculture, rangelands, food security Southern Africa Desiccation coupled with risk of landscape/ecosystem collapse in greater Kalahari region & ENSO impacts Risks to livelihoods, food security, water resources Sahel Highly uncertain, increased rainfall variability, possibility of wetter conditions but not necessarily sustained How to deal with decadal-scale variability & longer? Risks of maladaptation Annual temperature & precipitation changes over Africa between & from MMD-A1B simulations, men for 21 models.

8 7 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Indicators for vulnerability screening in North Africa / Maghreb LECZ - population in low-elevation coastal zone CRDIa - total no. affected by climate-related disasters , scaled by 2007 popn. IWS - % of population with access to improved water source FI - food insecurity inferred from % of population undernourished HDI - human development index rank, proxy for adaptive capacity CVI - climate vulnerability index (emphasising water) CDVI - number of occurrences in top fifth of vulnerability index with 13 different weights CDRIb - historical climate disaster risk on scale 1-5 based across related indices for 1990s RAI - Resource allocation index, proxy for country preparedness

9 8 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Other “hot-spot” regions identified South Asia: Exposed to changes in water availability resulting from loss of Himalayan glaciers. Loss of water outside monsoon season, also extremes, SLR. Southeast Asia: High exposure to sea-level rise and associated coastal climate change hazards due to low-lying land, megadeltas, high population. Central Asia: Exposed to desiccation as a result of high temperature increases, significant reductions in rainfall & loss of snow-melt from mountain regions. Andean region: Exposed to severe reductions in water availability due to glacier loss, also other hazards linked to ENSO, circulation changes. Caribbean: High exposure to a suite of hazards associated with sea-level rise, possible changes in tropical storms, ecosystem loss, desiccation & water loss. Pacific Islands: Similar to Caribbean region, with additional problems of isolation & fact that many islands are low-lying atolls. + North Africa/Magreb, Southern Africa & Sahel (previous slide) = 9 regions Based on projections from IPCC AR4 (2007), expert judgment & review of other, post-AR4 literature.

10 9 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Countries & regional groups selected Country or groupAlternatePossible regional group Bolivia (Andean region)Peru+ Colombia, Ecuador 4Bangladesh (South Asia)India+ Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives 5Nepal (South Asia)BhutanCombine Nepal & Bhutan 6-- 7Tajikistan (Central Asia)Uzbekistan+ Turkmenistan, Kyrghyz Rep., Kazakhstan 8Mauritania (N. Africa)Morocco 9Zambia (southern Africa)Angola 10Niger (Sahel)Chad+ Mali &/or Sudan 11Mozambique (African LDCs)Ethiopia, Sierra LeoneNone proposed Caribbean region (Dominica, Guyana, Haiti) Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines (Southeast Asia) Pacific region (countries TBC)

11 10 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Country distribution

12 11 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Global distribution - regional balance Diverse environments & development contexts A range of key long-term hazards also linked with extreme events Identification of additional high-risk African LDCs Comments on countries selected

13 12 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Strengths of the EG’s approach Coherent methodology & conceptual framework Transparent process Combines expert judgment with indicator-based data Not reductionist - not based on single-number index Addresses contextual nature of risk (to an extent) Is climate change specific (except for preparedness indicator & HDI)

14 13 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January Caveats Top-down approach Characterisation of hazard & vulnerability necessarily crude Based on projections that may be conservative - may miss certain hazards and/or underestimate their severity Focuses on large-scale, long-term, systemic hazards & risks - countries may experience high risks due to other combinations of hazard & vulnerability, e.g. combinations of extremes etc.

15 14 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January More participatory selection process might be desirable  has its own risks - easy to lose climate change focus Alternatives & improvements Method could be refined by developing better indicators  Hazard index addressing different national context  Vulnerability indicators targeting national hazard & development contexts  Risk indices combining hazard & vulnerability  Time & resource intensive undertaking, but might start with one region

16 15 Climate Change in Africa PPCR Expert Group Reporting Meeting 27 January End of presentation


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