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Finweek Wealth Forum 14 th March 2011. Agenda Common sense goes a long way in Investing South African Markets: Time to Cash in ? The Bravata Solution.

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Presentation on theme: "Finweek Wealth Forum 14 th March 2011. Agenda Common sense goes a long way in Investing South African Markets: Time to Cash in ? The Bravata Solution."— Presentation transcript:

1 Finweek Wealth Forum 14 th March 2011

2 Agenda Common sense goes a long way in Investing South African Markets: Time to Cash in ? The Bravata Solution

3 Lessons from Omaha

4 Rule 1 don’t lose money Rule 2 Don’t forget rule 1 Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy Invest with a margin of safety Successful investing is a result of being rational Invert, Invert always Invert! The market is there to serve you

5 Our world today Interest rates have been in decline since 1982

6 Rates have been decline for 32 years!

7 Our world today Interest rates have been in decline since 1982 Turnover of stocks has moved from 20% to 215%,280% if ETF’s are included Total long term return from stocks should be about 7-9% US Govt. Interest payments : 10% share of revenues will go to 30% by 2020

8 Our world today South Africa needs a 7% GDP to create employment 3, 5 million assessed taxpayers in RSA in million have some form of state support One of top four developing countries in the misery index

9 Our world today In 2008 one in eight Aston Martins, 4% of Maybachs were sold in our country 5 th largest importer of whiskey Local markets have been beneficiaries of foreign inflows

10 Bonds Net foreign purchases on South African Bonds (Billion Rands)

11 Our world today In 2008 one in eight Aston Martins, 4% of Maybachs were sold in our country 5 th largest importer of whiskey Local markets have been beneficiaries of foreign inflows Well into the supercycle Our markets are fairly valued

12 Bravata solution Investor reaction to falling prices doesn’t seem to change. A bad experience leads them to back off and to avoid the entire asset class in which they lost money. They continue to avoid it, no matter how good its value becomes. Dr. Marc Faber

13 JSE vs. S&P vs. Nasdaq (in instrument currency)

14 JSE vs. Emerging Markets vs. MSCI World (in instrument currency)

15 Example: Glaxo vs Aspen

16 Asset Allocation HoldingNAV 1.Capita Financial Morant Wright Japan Fund9.4% 2.Dell Inc.5.0% 3.Washington Post Company4.6% 4.Johnson & Johnson4.3% 5.Bowler Metcalf Ltd3.1% 6.Coca Cola Company2.9% 7.Berkshire Hathaway2.7% 8.Recm & Calibre Limited Pref Shares2.6% 9.British American Tobacco Plc2.3% 10.Sanofi Aventis SA Ord2.3% Total39.2%

17 Your questions are welcome.

18 Aylett & Co is an authorised financial services provider approved by the Registrar of Financial Services Providers (www.fsb.co.za) to provide intermediary services and advice in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37 of Market fluctuations and changes in rates of exchange or taxation may have an effect on the value, price or income of investments. Since the performance of financial markets fluctuates, an investor may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future investment performance. Information and opinions have been compiled or arrived at by Aylett & Co from sources believed to be reliable, but Aylett & Co does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof nor makes any representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Any underlying research or analysis has been procured by Aylett & Co for its own purposes and may have been acted on by Aylett & Co or an associate for its or their own purposes.


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