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The Path To Full Employment, But Slack Remains
Monthly non-farm payrolls have expanded at an average of 280k since mid-2014…
…which has lifted employment to around 2% above the pre-recession peak
The unemployment rate has edged down to 5.5% from a peak of 10%...
…but the part rate remains depressed, although it has stabilised in the past year…
…while the employment to population ratio has also only partially recovered
Unemployment duration has declined to 13 weeks, its lowest level since 2009…
..while the quit rate – a barometer for worker optimism - is approaching pre-recession levels
Long term unemployment has dropped to 2.7 million people for the first time since 2009
Under-employment has declined significantly but is still stubbornly high
Employment in crisis exposed industries hasn’t fully recovered to pre-recession levels
Average hourly earnings has dipped to sub-2% yoy and is growing only just ahead of core inflation
The Phillips curve has flattened considerably since the financial crisis
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