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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management1 BA 301 – Spring 2003

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management2 Project Characteristics Usually unique, done only one time Long time duration to complete Very costly and require large amounts of resources Meeting expected completions times is important Resources can often be shifted between different project activities Management teams are usually disbanded upon completion of the project

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management4 An Example (Close by!) A major highway construction project just south of the CBA. This project to redesign the interchange between I-40 and I-17 was a joint venture between Vastco, Inc. and ADOT. The construction was an excellent example of “Project Management”

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management10 2 Two Months Activity (Arrow) Begin War Saddam’s government is eliminated Project: “Iraqi Freedom” Event (Node) Engage & Defeat Iraqi Military Forces Engage & Defeat Iraqi Military Forces 1 Event (Node) Network Terms

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management11 1 A B A & B can occur concurrently 2 3 Activity Relationships

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management12 14 2 3 A B C A must be done before C & D can begin D Activity Relationships

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management13 3 time estimates Optimistic times (a) Most-likely time (m) Pessimistic time (b) Follow beta distribution Expected time: t = (a + 4m + b)/6 Variance of times: v = (b - a) 2 /6 PERT Activity Times

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management14 PERT ANALYSIS Immediate Time b - a ActivityPredecessor a m b t 6 v A none 2 4 6 B none 3 6 9 C A 1 2 9 D B 3 4 11 E C,D 4 5 6

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management15 Provides activity information Earliest (ES) & latest (LS) start Earliest (EF) & latest (LF) finish Slack (S): Allowable delay Identifies critical path Longest path in network Shortest time project can be completed Any delay on critical path activities delays project Critical path activities have 0 slack Critical Path Analysis

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management18 14 2 3 Pour foundation & frame 3 wk. 4 wk. 2 wk. 6 wk. Do interior work Landscape Roof Buy shrubs etc. Critical path is longest path: 12 weeks. Critical Path in Network

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management19 Finding the Critical Path Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack A 4 0 4 B 6 0 6 C 3 4 7 D 5 6 11 E 5 11 16

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management20 Critical Path continued Activity Time ES EF LS LF Slack A 4 0 4 4 8 4 B 6 0 6 0 6 0 C 3 4 7 8 11 4 D 5 6 11 6 11 0 E 5 11 16 11 16 0

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management21 Expected project time (T) Sum of critical path activity times, t Project variance (V) Sum of critical path activity variances, v Used to obtain probability of project completion! Project Times

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management22 © 1995 Corel Corp. PERT Probability Example You’re a project planner for General Dynamics. A submarine project has an expected completion time of 40 weeks, with a standard deviation of 5 weeks. What is the probability of finishing the sub in 50 weeks or less?

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Fall 2001BA 301 - Project Management23 T = 40 s = 5 50X Normal Distribution Z XT = - = - = s 5040 5 20. m z = 0 s Z = 1 Z 2.0 Standardized Normal Distribution Converting to Standardized Variable

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