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Hard Times Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion.

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Presentation on theme: "Hard Times Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hard Times Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion

2 Toughest jobs market for a generation

3 Back in 2010, consensus was return to trend growth...

4 Since then things have got worse – new forecasts are much weaker...

5 And even those may be optimistic!

6 Result: 300,000 fewer jobs forecast now than previously for

7 Which means more people on JSA – up to 350,000 more than expected

8 And while new vacancies have come back up...

9 More competition means the stock of vacancies is in the doldrums

10 So: Hard times And far tougher than when JCP and Work Programme budgets were set

11 e.g. Work Programme – starts up 50% for JSA (partially offset by 10% fall for ESA...)

12 Already seeing this in referrals June to October 2011 – up 20%

13

14 And will feed through into outcomes Iron law: lower growth = fewer jobs

15 So what does this mean for homeless and vulnerably housed? Threats: Economy Public funding Incentives/ structures Freedom and flex Welfare reform... But opportunities: Experience Freedom and flex

16 Experience Know what good looks like: Single lead case worker within JCP/ WP Collaboration with homelessness services Co-location Referrals to services Reciprocal training Addressing all barriers – esp. mental health, dependency, family breakdown, debt

17 Freedom and flex Less prescription in JCP is also an opportunity Not just a service for when things go wrong Work Programme “black box”, innovation Opportunity to engage is right now More local control – across LA budgets, skills, health, regeneration (but less money overall) Emerging social finance market – Big Society Capital, Community Budgets

18 So where go from here? What’s working? In local partnerships With JCP/ Work Programme/ others How go further? E.g. building on Homeless Link/ JCP guidance; through Work Programme; in local partnerships What needs to change?

19 Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion


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