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Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Food Consumption Data in Microbiological Risk Assessment Barbara J. Petersen and.

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Presentation on theme: "Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Food Consumption Data in Microbiological Risk Assessment Barbara J. Petersen and."— Presentation transcript:

1 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Food Consumption Data in Microbiological Risk Assessment Barbara J. Petersen and Leila M. Barraj Eponent  E x ponent  Food and Chemicals Practice (formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc.)

2 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Acknowledgement: S. Kathleen Egan, US Food and Drug Administration

3 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Risk Assessment Paradigm Hazard Identification Hazard Identification Exposure Assessment Exposure Assessment Hazard Characterization Hazard Characterization Risk Characterization Risk Characterization

4 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Using Consumption Data in Microbiological Risk Assessments Iterative process: Iterative process: –Consumption data  exposure (intake) estimates –Intake estimates  risk estimates (e.g., illnesses, deaths per year) –Risk estimates compared to actual or reported events –Refine risk assessment if necessary

5 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Exposure Assessment Pathogen concentration in food at time of consumption Pathogen concentration in food at time of consumption –Presence on/in food –Pathogen distribution on/in food –Pathogen concentration Consumption of food Consumption of food –Frequency of consumption –Amount consumed

6 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Consumption Data Frequency of consumption Frequency of consumption –Number of meals –Number of servings –Per year, per week, per day Amount consumed Amount consumed –Per meal, per serving, per day –Average amounts, unit size, distributions Depend on purpose of assessment and data available Depend on purpose of assessment and data available

7 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Consumption Patterns Related to: Population demographics Population demographics –Age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic characteristics Season Season Region Region

8 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Characterize Consumption Patterns of: Sensitive subpopulations Sensitive subpopulations –Young children, elderly, pregnant women, immunodefficient, … High risk consumer behavior, e.g., High risk consumer behavior, e.g., –Consumption of unpasteurized dairy products –Consumption of undercooked meat products

9 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Difference in Consumption Databases How information is collected How information is collected –Consumer surveys, sales statistics, production statistics, … Food form Food form –Foods as consumed, as purchased, raw agricultural commodities, …

10 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Food Production Statistics Raw or semi-processed agricultural commodities Raw or semi-processed agricultural commodities Amount of food available for total population Amount of food available for total population  Annual quantity of food available per person  Daily per capita amount National statistics on food production and utilization National statistics on food production and utilization FAO Food Balance Sheets FAO Food Balance Sheets International assessments International assessments

11 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Consumption Surveys National level or specific subpopulations National level or specific subpopulations Information on: Information on: –Types and amounts of foods consumed over a short period of time –Frequency of consumption of a pre- specified list of foods Limited number of countries Limited number of countries Level of detail, method, and survey instrument vary across surveys Level of detail, method, and survey instrument vary across surveys

12 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Retail Food Purchases Specific foods Specific foods Typically at household level Typically at household level Often used to supplement information from food consumption surveys Often used to supplement information from food consumption surveys

13 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Amount of Food Consumed Per-capita or per-user Per-capita or per-user –Total population or restricted to consumers of the food –Difference depends on frequency of consumption –Data source

14 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Amount of Food Consumed Per year, per day, per eating occasion Per year, per day, per eating occasion –Acute or chronic effects –Daily Restricted to consumption days Restricted to consumption days All survey days All survey days –Data source

15 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Amount of Food Consumed Point estimate Point estimate –Serving unit –Typical (average) amount –High end consumption amount Entire distribution Entire distribution

16 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Frequency of Consumption Proportion of population consuming the food Proportion of population consuming the food How often an individual consumes the food How often an individual consumes the food –Number of days per year in which food is consumed –Number of eating occasions per year Annual number of meals Annual number of meals Number of times a food is consumed per year Number of times a food is consumed per year Number of times a given portion size is consumed per year Number of times a given portion size is consumed per year

17 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Frequency of Consumption Assessment can be refined using sales volume or market share data Assessment can be refined using sales volume or market share data –e.g., pasteurized and unpasteurized milk or juice sales –Assume x% of all eating occasions are for unpasteurized food form x% of all eating occasions are for unpasteurized food form Uniform distribution across entire population Uniform distribution across entire population Similar consumption amounts Similar consumption amounts

18 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Using Food Production Statistics Total population  individuals within a population Total population  individuals within a population –Uniform distribution? –Regional differences? –Ethnic, age, gender differences? Annual statistics  daily estimates Annual statistics  daily estimates –Seasonal differences? –Day of the week differences? Raw agricultural commodities  foods as consumed Raw agricultural commodities  foods as consumed –Processing method? –Cooking method?

19 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Using Consumption Surveys Sample of population  total population Sample of population  total population –Representative? –Statistical weights Limited number of days  long-term estimates Limited number of days  long-term estimates –“Typical” days? –Day to day variability? Food groups  individual foods Food groups  individual foods –Equal frequencies and amounts?

20 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Using Consumption Surveys Infrequently consumed foods Infrequently consumed foods –Per user estimates –Per day or eating occasion Foods consumed in mixed dishes Foods consumed in mixed dishes –Recipes? Joint exposure for multiple foods or for individual foods Joint exposure for multiple foods or for individual foods –Total exposure? –Risk from individual foods?

21 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Using Consumption Surveys Typically focus on nutrition aspect Typically focus on nutrition aspect –May focus on different subpopulations than those of interest –May not collect enough detail on foods consumed Raw data versus summary statistics Raw data versus summary statistics

22 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Using Consumption Surveys Food source Food source –Home / store / restaurant / fast food place / cafeteria / vending machine … Where consumed Where consumed When was food consumed? When was food consumed? –Time of day –With meal / meal name Source of drinking water Source of drinking water –Bottled / CWS / well …

23 Exponent, Food and Chemicals Practice, formerly Novigen Sciences, Inc. Using Consumption Surveys Information on consumer behavior typically missing: Information on consumer behavior typically missing: –Food handling –Cooking method –Cooking temperature and duration –Potential for cross contamination For most microbial contaminants, one of most important factors For most microbial contaminants, one of most important factors


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