Presentation on theme: "Paths to Space Settlement"— Presentation transcript:
1Paths to Space Settlement Space Tourism -- Space Solar PowerPlanetary Defense -- Molecular Nanotechnology"For me the single overarching goal of human space flight is the human settlement of the solar system, and eventually beyond. I can think of no lesser purpose sufficient to justify the difficulty of the enterprise, and no greater purpose is possible," -- Michael GriffinAl GlobusSan Jose State University, NASA Ames
2Space SettlementNot just a place to go work or visit for a limited timeNot a space station like ISSNot explorationA home in spaceHundreds or thousands of residentsMany space settlements (thousands)Some stay for lifeSome raise kids
3Where? Orbit To raise children that can visit Earth requires 1g Moon 1/6g Mars 1/3gOrbit any g, for 1g rotate at 2rpm = 250m radiusContinuous solar energyLarge-scale construction easier in 0gShort supply line to Earth (hours vs days/months)Orbital disadvantage: materialsNeed millions of tons, mostly shielding and structureMoon: metals, Si, ONear Earth Objects (NEO): wide variety
12GrowthLargest asteroid converted to orbital space settlements can produce 1g living area times the surface area of the Earth.Reason: 3D object to 2D shellsEasily support trillions of people.New landBuild it yourselfDon’t take from others
13Wealth and Power China’s Ming dynasty English 100 Year War 1337-1453 ocean explorationPulled back, was colonizedEnglish 100 Year WarFailed military expansion in known worldEstablished empire overseasEnglish merchant marine,1550s Irish colonizationAmerican colonies 1600s625 million x energy on EarthTotal solar energy availableOne smallish NEO, 3554 Amun, contains $20 trillion materials.There are thousands of such asteroidsEarly 1600s, American colonies
14Nice Place to Live Great views Low/0-g recreation Independence Human powered flightCylindrical swimming poolsDance, gymnasticsSports: soccerIndependenceSeparate environmentEasy-to-control borders
15What Do We Need? Earth to Orbit transportation Build really big things in orbitHabitats, solar collectors, thermal rejectionUse local materials (ISRU)Moon, NEOsStay aliveSmall semi-closed plant-based ecosystemPay for itUnlikely fiscal 2010 line itemPiggy-back on space tourism, SSP, planetary defense, molecular nanotechnologyPay for themselves independent of settlement
16Launch Problem Failure rate about one percent Thousands of dollars per kgForces mass, power optimizationLeads to small margins requiring extensive analysis and testingNo repairman!Redundancy expensive, particularly testingIn man-hr/kg to orbit, Saturn V cheapest!Cause: low volume (55 launches in 2005)Cheapest commercial vehicles are Russian, who have made, by far, the most launches
17Tourism = Launch Volume Price/ticketPassengers/year$1,00020,000,000$10,0005,000,000$100,000400,000$250,0001,000$500,000170Crouch, G. I., “Researching the Space Tourism Market,” Presented at the annual Conference of the Travel and Tourism Research Association , June 2001.
18Tourism Path Sub-orbital -- book flights now Orbital Orbital hotels -- two tourists/yr nowLow-g retirementSpecial group habitatsPay a premium to separate from rest of humanityGeneral space settlement
19Sub-orbital Tourism Book flights today Virgin Galactic ($200K)XCOR ($95K)Started by $10 million Ansari X-PrizeTwo sub-orbital launches same vehicle within two weeks by end of 2004Won by Burt Rutan$40 million of Paul Allen's moneyCouple million painting Virgin on the tailLead to a $120 million contract with VirginFunded by insurance policyAll industry experts said it couldn’t be done by deadline. Oops.
20Orbital Launch Proposal Pay to put people in orbit -- like X-PrizePay for many launchesLimit payout fraction to any one competitorEstimate $1 - 8 billion in prizes to get cost to $10,000/personIf fail, keep the prize money!Based on costs estimates by tSpace, SpaceDevSafety: key personnel on flights
22Floating to Orbit Airships (JP Aerospace) Experimentalists Vehicles Ground to 120,000 ftFloating base at 120,000 ftOrbital vehicle constructed at baseKm scaleFloats to 180,000 ftLow thrust engines1-5 days to get to orbitHigh drag returnSpaceShipOne too
23Orbital Hotels ISS six guests @ $20-30 Russian Soyuz First two-tourist flight advertisedMay end after 2009 to accommodate 6 person crewBigalow inflatableTwo small pressurized spacecraft currently in orbitHabitable version 2010?Market: inexpensive national human spaceflight programs
24Low-g Retirement No wheelchairs needed. No bed sores. Never fall and break hip.Much easier to get around.Grandchildren will love to visit0g playNeed good medical facilities.TelemedicineProbably can’t return to Earth.
25Space Solar Power Gather solar energy in space Wireless transmission to EarthConvert to electricityVast quantities24/7 (no night, clouds)Extremely greenNo C02 emissionsDepose King OilRequires electric cars
26SSP = Launch Volume, ISRU Today’s energy market 18 TW$0.05/kw-hrUS Military will pay $1/kw-hr remote regionsTomorrow’s market much larger18 Mtons 1kg/kw100,000 Ares V launchesISRULunar Si and metals supply most massExtremely greenMost work done thousands of km from biosphere
27SSP Transportation Sea Dragon for launch Big, dumb boosterEarly 60s design150m tall, 23m diameterFirst stage reusablePressure-fed engines8mm steel tankageOcean launch, shipyard construction500 ton to $242/kg0.5 GW sat per launch$27B development costSolar-electric orbital transfer vehicle
28Assembly and Maintenance Teleoperated cooperating robotsWeightless operationsLighting, power, thermal constraintsHandle thin flexible mirrors, wiresMajor man/machine integration issuesMACS-like simulator essentialSimulate robots, video feeds, data limitationsDisplaysAutonomy issuesInput device(s)
29Planetary Defense Thousands of NEOs Large fraction impact Earth Eventually, may be awhileNEO detection identifies potential materials sourcesDeflection technology may be adapted for retrievalSmall NEOs (10-50m) for safety
30Three Pillars of Molecular Nanotechnology Atomically precise control of matterMolecular machinesProgrammable matterOur favorite molecules:carbon Nanotubes
31Atomically Precise Control of Matter [Dekker 1999]
35What Can you Get?Diamondoid materials with great strength, thermal properties, stiffness.Existing design diamondoid SSTO $ /kg to orbit vs $16,000-59,000/kg for titanium [McKendree 95]Three-ton four-person clean sheet diamondoid SSTO vehicle [Drexler 1992]May enable space elevator
36Space Programs Constitutional (promote the general Welfare) Earth observationLaunchPlanetary defenseAeronauticsSSPScienceSpace SettlementLaunchLunar/NEO mineMaterial transportIn-orbit materials processing and manufactureSSPLarge constructionLife support
37Life Support ‘Easy’ Consider Biosphere II Six people in closed environment for over one year on first tryWe know it was closed, ran out of oxygenScientific failure hid engineering successLots of speciesSurvival of the fittestMake sure most are edible
38ConclusionThe settlement of the solar system could be the next great adventure for humanity. There is nothing but rock and radiation in space, no living things, no people. The solar system is waiting to be brought to life by humanity's touch.