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SOES6002, Module A: Modelling Climate Instability Lecture 1 Abrupt Change in Thermo- haline Circulation and Climate Jochem Marotzke.

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Presentation on theme: "SOES6002, Module A: Modelling Climate Instability Lecture 1 Abrupt Change in Thermo- haline Circulation and Climate Jochem Marotzke."— Presentation transcript:

1 SOES6002, Module A: Modelling Climate Instability Lecture 1 Abrupt Change in Thermo- haline Circulation and Climate Jochem Marotzke

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7 Will the THC weaken under GHG increase? What would be the climatic consequences of a THC collapse? If the THC weakens dramatically, will it return to “normal” after GHG concentration has returned to pre-industrial? Could a THC collapse occur much faster than indicated by the extant models? Which, if any, of the models is correct? Modelling Climate Instability

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9 If the THC weakens dramatically, will it return to “normal” after GHG concentration has returned to pre-industrial? Address with a minimal model of the THC National Research Council ( R. B. Alley, J. Marotzke, J. Overpeck, D. Peteet, R. Pielke, Jr., R. Pierrehumbert, P. Rhines, T. Stocker, L. Talley, and J. M. Wallace ), 2002: Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. Washington, D.C., National Academy Press, 230pp.

10 Stommel, 1961; Marotzke, 1990, 2000 If the THC collapses, will it return to “normal”?

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14 Modelling Climate Instability (I) Use a simple model to investigate: How is it possible that the thermohaline circulation (THC) could be so radically different from it is today? Could the pattern of today’s global THC be accidental - a consequence of special initial conditions? What is the role of wind-driven transports in all this?

15 Modelling Climate Instability (II) Use a simple model to investigate: How does an increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration modify climate? Why does the THC weaken under GHG increase? How does climate change under a THC collapse? If the THC weakens dramatically, will it return to “normal” after GHG concentration has returned to pre-industrial? What is the role of wind-driven transports in all this?


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