2 Brief History of Futures 1848, CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) 芝加哥交易所成立遠期契約， 1860’s 期貨契約 grains → financial instruments, specious metals ( 金、銀、銅、石油 ) 商品期貨：農產品、金屬、能源、軟性 ( 咖啡、可可 ) 金融期貨：外匯、利率 ( 短期、長期 ) 、股價指數、利率指數等 A futures contract is a legally binding commitment to make or take delivery of a standardized quantity and quality of a commodity at a price agreed upon in the trading pit or ring of a commodity exchange at the time the contract is executed.
3 Brief History of Futures （續） “forward contracts” v.s. “futures contracts” （遠期契約） （期貨契約） terms: amount, delibery terms are standaredized with date, quality, price are the exception of price set in private by the buyers ( price is discovered through & sellers public auction at an established exchange) *1. 標準化 — 交易標的物之定義 交易標的數量 契約到期日 交割方式 2. 消除違約風險（結算所背書保證） 3. 逐日結算 Clearing Corporation – it assumes the opposite side of each trade.
4 Hedging 避險期貨交易 “Hedge” means “protection”. Hedge ： The buying and selling of offsetting positions in the futures （期貨） market in order to provide protection against an adverse change in price. Hedging → ↓price risk （ If expect P↓→ sell futures contracts ； expect P↑→ purchase futures contract ） The initiation of a futures position that is intended as a temporary substitute for the sale or purchase of the actual commodity. Usually, actual commodity does not change hands in the futures markets : The sale of futures contracts can be offset by the purchase of an equal number of futures contract's at a later date before the contract's delivery date.
5 The Market Participants ： 1. hedgers ( 避險交易者 ), include: farmers, country elevator operators, processors, livestock feeders, exporters, importers. To lock in a price and obtain protection against 風險轉移的原理： They seek protection against adverse price changes by initiating a position in the futures market as a temporary substitute for the sale or purchase of the actual commodity. P↑ (buying futures)—“long” position （多頭） P↓ (selling futures)—“short” position （空頭） (bullish) (bearish)
6 2. ”speculators” （投機者） - people who assume risk in antipation of profiting from a change in prices Speculation 有助於價格穩定. Speculators facilitate hedging by providing liquidity - the ability to enter and exit the market quickly & easily. To profit from P↑(buying futures); P↓(selling futures). They can realize a highly leveraged profit if they prove to be correct in anticipating the direction and timing of price changes. 3. Arbitrager （套利交易人）： 同時買賣現貨、期貨，以賺取無風險價差
7 保證金 “margin” – money that buyers and sellers of futures contracts must deposit with their brokers and that brokers in turn must deposit with the Clearing Corporation. – money deposit in case of losses happen “margin call” --- loss ↓, gain ↑ minimum amount ↑ until the open position is closed Clearing Corporation （結算所） assumes the opposite side of each open position and thereby assures the financial integrity of every futures contract traded at the CBOT. Hedge: the buying & selling of offsetting positions in order to provide protection against an adverse change in price. Deposit more money to maintain minimum margin requirement
11 Hedging long hedge short hedge if basis weaken (cash falls more or rises less) basis gain basis loss if basis strengthens (cash falls less or rises more) basis loss basis gain
12 price $ transportation cost convergence futures price time local cash price future present carrying charges
13 Hedging 利用期貨之價差來彌補現貨之價差。不避險時，面對 現貨市場價格波動，避險時面對兩市場間之基差波動（ basis risk ）。因為期貨與現貨價格具高度相關性，互沖效果使基差 之波動小於現貨市場價格之波動，故 hedging 即以 basis risk 取代 price risk 。 Usually, cash price and futures price move in the same direction.Basis fluctuations are usually smaller than cash price fluctuations. time $ futures p. cash p.
14 eg1: short, futures gain, no basis change ( perfect hedge ) selling (short) hedges: a corn farmer wants to lock in corn price of $2.20/bu. $0.16/bu gain no change results: cash sale price $2.04/bu cash forward bid $2.20/bu + futures gain 0.16 no basis change 0 net selling price $2.20/bu net selling price $2.20/bu
15 eg2: short, futures loss, no basis change ( perfect hedge ) cash futures basis $2.20 sells $2.45 $0.25 under selling $2.50 buys $2.75 $0.25 under $0.30 loss no basis change results: cash sale price 2.50 price objective $2.20 futures loss - 0.30 no basis gain/loss 0 net selling price 2.20 net selling price $2.20 “perfect hedges ” : basis does not change between the time a hedge was placed and lifted
16 eg.3 : short, basis weaken ( loss ) cash futures basis Sep price for new-crop corn sells 2 Dec. corn contracts $0.25 under Dec. $2.20/bu $2.45/bu Nov. sells 10,000 bu corn at buys 2 Dec. corn contracts $0.30 under Dec. $2.00/bu at $2.30/bu to offset initial short futures position 0.15/bu gain $0.05 basis loss results: cash sale price $2.00/bu price objective $2.20/bu + futures gain 0.15 - basis loss $0.05/bu net selling price $2.15/bu = net selling price $2.15/bu
17 eg4: short, basis strengthen ( gain ) Cash futures basis Sep $2.20 sell $2.45 $0.25 under sell Nov $2.18 buy $2.38 $0.20 under $0.07/bu gain basis gain $0.05 results: cash sale price $2.18/bu price objective $2.20 + futures gain 0.07 + basis gain $0.05 net selling price 2.25/bu $2.25/bu
18 eg.5: short, basis weaken ( loss ) A processor hedges to protect his soybean oil inventory against price ↓ cash futures basis May (60,000 lbs each) cash forward bid for sells 3 Sep. soybean oil ￠ 1.00/lb over Sep. soybean oil ￠ 18.5/lb contracts at ￠ 17.5/lb Aug sells 180,000 lbs buys 3 Sep. soybean oil ￠ 0.75/lb over Sep. soybean oil at ￠ 16.25/lb contracts at ￠ 15.5/lb to offset intial short futures position ￠ 2.0/lb gain ￠ 0.25/lb basis loss results: cash sale 16.25 cash forward bid 18.50 + futures gain 2.00 - basis loss 0.25 net selling price 18.25 cents/lb net selling price 18.25
19 Cash Futures basis poultry Oct. (100 tons each) producer cash price for soybean buys 1 Jan soybean meal $5 under Jan meal $148/ton contract at $153/ton Dec. buys soybean meal at sells 1 Jan soybean meal $5under Jan $156/ton contract at $161/ton to offset initial long futures position $8/ton gain no change results: cash purchase price $156/ton price objective $148/ton - futures gain $ 8/ton no basis change 0 net purchase price $148/ton net purchase price $148/ton Buying (Long) Hedges: used to protect against ↑ in cash price. eg1.
20 cash futures basis Oct. cash price for soybean buys u Jan soybean meal $5 under Jan. meal $148/ton contract at $153/ton Dec. buys soybean meal at sells 1 Jan soybean meal $9 under Jan. $151/ton contract at $160/ton to offset initial long futures position $7/ton gain $4 basis gain results: cash purchase price $151/ton price objective $148/ton - futures gain $ 7/ton - basis gain $4/ton net purchase price $144/ton net purchase price $144/ton eg3. long, basis weaken ( gain )
21 cash futures basis Oct. cash price for soybean buys 1 Jan soybean meal $5 under Jan. meals $148/ton contract at $153/ton Dec. buys soybean meal at sells 1 Jan soybean meal $2 under Jan. $156/ton contract at $158/ton to offset initial long futures position $5/ton gain $3 basis loss results: cash purchase price $156/ton price objective $148/ton - futures gain $ 5/ton + basis loss $ 3/ton net purchase price $151/ton net purchase price $151/ton eg4: long, basis strengthen ( loss )
22 grain exporter cash futures basis July make commitment to sell buys 100 Dec. wheat $0.10 over Dec. 1 million bu wheat at contract at $2.62/bu $2.72/bu Nov. buys 1 million bu wheat sells 200 Dec. wheat $0.04 over Dec. at $2.78/bu contract at $2.74/bu to offset initial long futures position $0.12/bu gain $0.06 basis gain results: cash purchase price $2.78/bu price objective $2.72/bu - futures gain 0.12/bu - basis gain $0.06/bu net purchase price $2.66/bu net purchase price $2.66/bu eg5. long, basis weaken ( gain )
23 Options ( 選擇權 ) Options: the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a futures contract at some predetermined price at anytime within a specific time period Oct. 31, 1984 － soybeans Feb. 27, 1985 － corn + wheat, soybean oil, soybean meal etc. An option is a legally binding contract that gives the option buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell something under specific conditions in exchange for the payment of a premium. strike price ( the price of an option )
24 ( It is the buyer's (holder) decision whether to exercise that right; only the seller (writer) of the option is obligated to perform.) options (not opposite side of the same transaction) “calls” – the right to buy 買權 “puts” – the right to sell 賣權
25 If at harvest, market price of soybean futures is $7.00,you would certainly exercise your right to sell at $8.00, or you would sell the option rights to someone else. If Nov. soybean futures at harvest are trading at $8.50/bu, you would not exercise the right to sell at only $8.00. You would simply let the option expire (and lose the premium) or sell it to someone else. And option buyer ( holders ) has several choices: 1.liquidate his option position by selling an identical option anytime prior to expiration 2.let the option expire 3.exercise his option Choices of writers: 1.before been noticed for exercise – buy an offsetting option 2.after been noticed – selling an offsetting futures contract eg: Buy Nov. $8.00 soybean put option before Nov. harvest.
26 Options on Futures Contract The buyer of a call obtains protection against rising prices -- similar to the protection of a long hedge with futures -- but without giving up the chance to benefit from rising prices. The buyer of a put obtains protection against declining prices -- similar to the protection of a short hedge with futures of forward contracting -- but without giving up the chance to benefit from declining prices. Strike price -- the price at which the holder of a call (or put) may choose to exercise his right to purchase (or sell) the underlying futures contract. 履約價格
27 Intrinsic value : the difference between strike price & current market price An option is not worth exercising if it has no intrinsic value. In-the-money (worth exercising) -- an option that has intrinsic value Out-of-the-money -- an option that has no intrinsic value An option that is out-of-the-money at expiration will have no value, and the holder will allow it to expire worthless. At-the-money -- strike price = underlying futures price ( i.e. intrinsic value = 0 ) call option: current futures price > strike price put option: current futures price < strike price 內含價值 call option: current futures price < strike price put option: current futures price > strike price
28 Time value -- the amount that buyers are currently willing to pay for a given option over and above any intrinsic value, in anticipation that, over time, a change in the underlying futures price will cause the option to increase in value. Option premiums -- time value + intrinsic value the price of an option (the option buyer pays the option writer) Options are traded the same way futures contracts are traded, with the exception of margin requirements. Most option buyers and sellers elect to liquidate their option positions by an offsetting sale or purchase at or prior to expiration. 權利金 expiration time value time value
29 Exercise: only an option buyer (holder) has the right to exercise an option when a call (put) is exercised, the holder will acquire a long (short) futures position at the strike price. factors influencing premiums: 1. The length of time remaining until expiration 2. The volatility of the underlying futures price 3. The relationship of strike price and market price 4. Short-term risk-free interest rates 履約
30 Strategies for buying and selling options Buying put options: to establish a minimum price for sales A farmer might wish to purchase a put during the spring or summer in order to establish a minimum price for the sale of his crop at harvest.
31 eg1: In May a soybean producer pays a premium of $0.25 for a Nov. $7.50 put. (This gives him the right to go short in the futures market at a price of $7.50. The right continues for as long as he holds the option -- until he sells it, or exercise it, or until it expires in October) By harvest time, the Nov. futures price has declined to $6.50 the put with a strike price of $7.50 have an intrinsic value of $1.00
32 Cash Option May. price for new-crop buy Nov. $7.50 put at a premium of $0.25/bu soybeans is $7.25/bu Nov. sells 5,000 bu sells Nov. $7.50 put to receive premium of $1.00/bu soybeans at $6.50/bu and offset initial long option position + $0.75 ($1.00 - $0.25).... option gain result : cash sale price $6.50/bu + option gain $0.75/bu net selling price $7.25/bu
33 eg2: cash options May. price for new-crop buys Nov. $7.50 put soybeans is $7.25 at a premium of $0.25/bu Nov. sells 5,000 bu let option expire soybeans at $8.00/bu result: cash sale price $8.00/bu - cost of option premium 0.25/bu net selling price $7.75/bu
34 Buying call options: to sell the crops now (at harvest) and avoid storage costs (and P ↓), and also profit from P↑in winter or spring futures options Oct. May soybean futures buys May. $8.00 call are $8.00/bu at a premium of $0.15/bu Apr. May soybean futures sells May $8.00 call at a are $8.50/bu premium of $0.50/bu and offsets initial long option position result: gain from option position $0.50/bu - cost of premium 0.15/bu net gain $0.35/bu
35 Selling call options - to earn the option premium - when do not expect a substantial price increase "covered call" - write a call option against a commodity you own. - own commodity, cash market value of your commodity move with the same direction as the futures price "uncovered" or "naked" option - options not covered by having a cash or futures market position in the commodity
36 Selling put options - to earn the option premium - puts are written by individuals who do not expect a substantial decrease in price 1. Buying put options for protection against lower prices. 2. Buying put options for "price insurance" when you store your crop. 3. Writing call options to achieve a higher effective selling price for a crop you are storing. 4. Buying call options at harvest to profit form a winter/spring price increase. 5. Buying call options for short-term protection against rising prices.
37 If futures price at expiration is: (basis maintains at –0.20) Your net return if you Write call with strike price ofHedg e or contra ct at $7.50 Buy put with $7.50 strike price at a premium of $0.30 Do noth ing $7.25$7.50$7.75$8.00 premiums 0.430.300.200.13 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 $6.73 $7.23 $7.48 6.60 7.10 7.60 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.75 6.43 6.93 7.43 7.93 7.30 7.00 7.50 8.00 6.30 6.80 7.30 7.80 8.30 8.50-0.20+(7.25-8.50)+0.43 6.50-0.20+(7.50-6.50)-0.30 Futures price when you sell your crop – Local basis at the time you sell – Premium paid for option + Intrinsic value of option (if any) = Net return
38 net return $ 7.30 hedge or contract buy put do nothing future price 7.00 7.50