Presentation on theme: "Public Opinion Objectives:"— Presentation transcript:
1Public Opinion Objectives: Examine the term public opinion and determine why it isso hard to define.Describe factors that shape public opinion.Bell Ringer:Going beyond the simple explanation of cynicism, speculate about the reasons for the apathy most Americans feel toward their government and officials and their low levels of knowledge about both.Agenda:Introduction to Public OpinionHomework:None unless have not finished work in class
2Public Opinion Objectives: Examine the term public opinion and determine why it isso hard to define.Describe factors that shape public opinion.Bell Ringer:Are elections accurate measures of public opinion?Agenda:Public OpinionHomework:Chapter 8 Section 2 Assessment #1-7
3Public Opinion Objectives: Examine the term public opinion and determine why it isso hard to define.Describe factors that shape public opinion.Bell Ringer:Political scientist V.O. Key, jr. , once described public opinion as those expressions that governments “find it prudent to heed.” Do you agree with Key’s definition? Explain your answer.Agenda:Public OpinionHomework:Use your review guide to study for Friday’s test
4Public Opinion Objectives: Analyze campaign data to understand how favorability and issue polls are used.Examine polling methods to determine which are most accurate.Bell Ringer:Complete the “Polling Pre-assessment” handoutAgenda:Types of public opinion pollsUses of public opinion pollsHomework:Use Review Guide to help you study for test
5Public Opinion Objectives: Analyze campaign data to understand how favorability and issue polls are used.Examine polling methods to determine which are most accurate.Bell Ringer:How do politicians and the media use public opinion polls? What are the implications of these uses?Agenda:Public opinion pollsHomework:Remainder of Ch. 7 Overview DueBell Ringer notebooks due 10/29(A) and 10/30 (B)Unit 2 Test (Ch. 4, 5) November 3 (A) and 4 (B)
6What is public opinion?Views individuals hold about government, publicpolicy, society, and culture.· Major part of today’s American political landscape.Reflects how people would like government toact.
7What is public opinion?Since 1789, framers and most public officials havehad no formal or agreed upon way of determining or responding to public opinion.4. May be based on:Facts about problems and solutionsEmotions and crisesBeliefs people adopt through process of political socialization
8What is public opinion? 5. Role of Elites: ·Shape mass views by influencing what issuescapture the public attention and how those issuesare debated and decided.· State the norms by which issues should be settled· Set range of acceptable and unacceptable6. New class· Sociologists & political scientists often claim thatthere’s a new class of people who benefit from thepower, resources, and growth of government.· Constitute new elite that are wealthy because oftheir connections with government, not business,as elites previously were.
9Characteristics of Public Opinion Latency: an opinion is held but not expressedSaliency: degree to which it is important to aparticular person or group. 1. Social security high saliency with seniorcitizens, lower for younger voters.
10Characteristics of Public Opinion · Intensity: how strongly people feel on a certainissue1. NRA represents a minority position. However,intensity of their opposition to gun control is high. Many members determine who they’ll vote for in part due to a candidate’s position on gun control. This has made them one of America’s most powerful lobbying organizations.· Stability: How little, or how much, public opinionchanges over time
11Political socialization Process through which a person acquires knowledge, a set of political attitudes and orientations, and forms values and opinions about the political system and other social issues.
12Agents of Socialization U.S. is one of the world’s most diverse countries, thismakes it especially complex.Public opinion often skewed to a particular point ofview (most in U.S. favor a capitalist economicsystem)Other public opinion can be almost equally dividedbetween two extreme positions, generally littlemiddle ground on these issues (Pro-life vs. pro-choice)
13Family Single most important socializing agent for most Americans At home, kids learn basic attitudes toward authority, property, & rules of behavior· Most students see their views as being independent of their parents. In reality, there is still more political agreement between family generations
14How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization
15School and Peers· Governments use schools in their attempt to instill a commitment to the basic values of the system.Schools give children formal knowledge they will need to be good citizens· Schools are also centers of informal learningabout other groups in society.
16Benevolent LeaderPolitical socialization phenomenon where children learn that political figures of the U.S. are well-meaning, honest, and trustworthy early in their childhood.Children’s stories of George Washington andAbraham Lincoln
17Mass Media · Referred to as “the new parent” 1. T.V. displaces parents as main source ofinformation as kids get older2. T.V. most common source of politicalinformation
18Mass Media tend to see only what they want to see · Selective perception: notion that peopletend to see only what they want to see· Selective retention: idea that peopleremember what they agree with
19Social Groups Political efficacy is the feeling that: · one can understand government and effectivelyparticipate in it· government will respond to citizens’ demands· dependent on the factors below1. more important seems to be education: the higher the education, the higher the efficacy.
20Effects of Diversity Demographic patterns determined every ten years when the census is conducted
21Religion · Generally Jews more liberal than Catholics, who are more liberal than Protestants· Jews and Black Protestants tend to be themost liberal· White Protestants tend to be more conservative(especially in the south)· Many agree with separation of church and state
22Ethnicity · Blacks tend to be more liberal · Asians and Hispanics are a little less liberal· Blacks and Asians are more likely to vote than whites of their same income level· Cubans tend to be more conservativeMany immigrants arrive from all over the world eachyear (government allows 630,000 new legalimmigrants per year)
23Ethnicity The Immigrant Society United States is a nation of immigrants.Three waves of immigration:Northwestern Europeans (prior to late 19th Century)Southern and eastern Europeans (late 19th and early 20th centuries)Hispanics and Asians (late 20th century)
24Ethnicity The American Melting Pot Melting Pot: the mixing of cultures, ideas, and peoples that has changed the American nationMinority Majority: the emergence of a non-Caucasian majorityPolitical culture is an overall set of values widely shared within a society.
26Gender · Women favor government programs promoting equality more than men.· More likely to support government socialwelfare programs, less likely to support increases in military spending· No set gender generalizations, differencesbetween men/women typically issue specific.
27Age · Younger people typically vote less, not really involved in/knowledgeable about politics.· Senior citizens population growing tend to bevocal and lobby for particular issues 1. Social Security System is second only tonational defense as America’s most costlypublic policy.
28Age The Graying of America Fastest growing age group is over 65 Potential drain on Social SecurityPay as you go systemIn 1942, 42 workers per retireeIn 2040, 2 workers per retiree
29Age Political Learning Over a Lifetime Aging increases political participation and strength of party attachment.
30Region · Mountain states and Midwest generally more conservative · Eastern and Western states typically more liberal· Southerners generally more conservative (because of civil rights issues)
31Region The Regional Shift Population shift from east to west Reapportionment: the process of reallocating seats in the House of Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census
32Education· In general, the higher the level of education attained, the higher one’s awareness and understanding of politics and political issues· More education an individual receives, the more likely that person is to hold liberal political positions· More education = more likely to vote, more tolerant of opposing opinions
33Income· Divides people on their opinions: higher income, more likely to value freedom and less government control· Higher income often more supportive of liberal goals like racial & sexual equality· Poor white voters LEAST likely to vote in a typical election
34Personal Beliefs · Americans more “me-oriented” than ever · Agree with things that benefit us, disagreewith those that don’t· When policies don’t affect us personally, hard for us to form an opinion
35Political Knowledge· Everyone has “opinions” on politics, most people, however don’t know any “facts”1. Speaker of the House2. Chief Justice of the Supreme Court3. Where other countries are located (Iraq, China, El Salvador)
36Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information
37Cues From Leaders· With lack of knowledge public opinion can be highly changeable at times1. Rapid shifts are common when the public doesn’t have much information or when the information that they have is bad.
38Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information
39Public Opinion PollsCan be measured in different ways and the accuracy of the opinion depends on the measurementPublic opinion is measured regularly through elections.Only measures it indirectly since voters are not alwaysfor, but sometimes against a candidate.
40Public Opinion Polls 4 out of 5 doctors surveyed recommend Product X. If the election were held tomorrow, 43% of likely voters would vote for Roberta Jones.85% of all Americans prefer Brand Q over Brand Y.66% of parents surveyed think their children watch too much television.Where might you here or read a quote like this?What types of groups would be interested in information like this?What are some different ways groups could use this information?How might you be influenced if you read this quote?
41Public Opinion PollsModern-day polling tends to be moderately accurate“John Q. Public” thought to be the average man or womanon the streets. Term used by the media and pollsterswhen making blanket statements about the generalopinion in the U.S.
42Random/Representative Sample Polls · Everyone in the target population has an equal probability of being selected· Questions used are non-biased & do not give respondents any clues about what answers poll is looking for.· Many polls conducted through telephone andcomputer surveys
43Telephone Polling Cluster sampling: groups drawn by geographical divisions (counties, districts)Random digit dialing: people over eighteen withbirthdays in a certain month are asked to completea questionnaire
44Telephone Polling · Quota sample: less reliable polling method in which members of a particular group areinterviewed in proportion to the group’spercentage of the population as a whole.· More costly than nonrandom polls, but results aremore reliable· Apply a sampling error (typically about +/- 3 points)1. Poll results give candidate 45% of vote. Actualresults could be 42 or 48%
45Telephone Polling Quota sample (continued) · Assuming the U.S. adult population is targetedgroup, sample size usually between 1,200 and1,500 respondents1. As polling techniques become more advanced,typical sample sizes decreasing· Apply a sampling error (typically about +/- 3 points)1. Poll results give candidate 45% of vote. Actualresults could be 42 or 48%
46Not reliable representations of people’s true opinions. However: Nonrandom PollsNot reliable representations of people’s true opinions. However:Straw polls: unscientific attempts to measure public opinion. Often used by print and television news media, internet, even members of Congress.1. Results not reliable because there is no guarantee that the group or sample answering question is representative of whole population.
47Not reliable representations of people’s true opinions. However: Nonrandom PollsNot reliable representations of people’s true opinions. However:· Many candidates rely on nonrandom polls quicklyconducted by their party.· Members of Congress often rely on letters, phonecalls, s to indicate public opinion on someissues.1. Only represents views of people motivatedenough to contact legislators.
48Nonrandom Polls Way questions are worded can significantly influence reflected opinions.1. “Slanting” questions to get the answers theywant.
49Political Polls Push Polls · Attempt to lead subject to a specified conclusion· Some designed to ‘push’ subjects away fromcandidates by linking them to negative events ortraits in the question
50Political Polls Tracking Polls · Continuous surveys that enable candidates andpoliticians to chart daily rise and fall in popularity· Small samples· Reliability problems but may be a decent measureof trends
51Political Polls Exit Polls · Used by media to find out how people voted &why· Not random or representative, but if a large enoughproportion of voters is polled, responses can form basis for some generalizations.· Reliability problems but may be a decent measureof trends
52Use of Polls · Informing the public · Informing the candidate · Informing office-holders· Making election night predictionsSome officials closely follow public opinion and use it in making policy decisionsOthers don’t trust it because it can change quickly and dramatically
53Shortcomings of PollsIn 1936, a Literary Digest poll underestimated the vote for FDR by 19% because of flawed polling.They drew their sample from phone books and motor vehicle records. During the Great Depression, people on those lists typically above the average income level, and therefore not representative of the public.
54Role of Polls Supporters · Allows people to express their approval ordisapproval of government· Tool for democracy by which policymakers cankeep in touch with changing opinions
55Shortcomings of Polls · Sampling error · Limited respondent options (narrow answer base)· Lack of information (respondents don’t understandquestion)· Intensity (learn people’s positions, but not howstrong or weak it is)· Elitism (deliberative polls have been accused ofbias)
56Role of Polls Critics· Makes politicians more concerned with following thanleading.· Political scientist Benjamin Ginsberg argues polls weaken democracy because they let government think that it has taken public opinion into account when only passive (often ill-informed) opinions have been counted.· “Bandwagon effect”: possible tendency of some voters or convention delegates to support the candidate who isleading in the polls and seems most likely to win.
57Role of Polls Critics · Drown out actual issues during elections. · Pollsters get results they want by alteringwording of the questions.