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1 Background –Long Finance, long term thinking Global 2050 –What we can forecast Uncertainties –What paradigm changes can we.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Background –Long Finance, long term thinking Global 2050 –What we can forecast Uncertainties –What paradigm changes can we."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Background –Long Finance, long term thinking Global 2050 –What we can forecast Uncertainties –What paradigm changes can we envisage? –Forecasts and scenarios Four scenarios –How might the world be? Financial services –What institutions will there be and what will they provide? 2

3 3 Initiative set up in 2007 –Supported by Z/Yen and Gresham College Aim: improve society’s understanding and use of finance over the long term Tackled specific issues such as the future of mortgages, systems view of the credit crunch, history of money ----- Long Finance Forum of Futurists (L3F) –Project to develop rounded views of the future of financial services (FS) –Supported by Z/Yen, Gresham College and SAMI

4 Banking crisis remain chronic, as does state intervention The economic situation is completely predicated on the banking crisis Economic situation develops independently of the banking crisis Banking crisis is settled relatively quickly Japan India UK US Middle income industrialising ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 China Euro zone 01/05/2015 4 Prolonged depression, growing statist environment Slow grind to expunge debt; some deliberate use of monetary inflation Business grows as before Slow return to health; US consumer stage centre

5 TIME PROMINENCE OF DRIVER NOW LOOKING AHEAD DISTANT FUTURE Horizon 1: Analysis Horizon 3: Imagination Horizon 2: Exploration 5 2030 2050

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7 1988 1998 2008 Africa S America Asia Oceania N America Europe 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Ratio of people under 16 years to people over 45 Time ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 7

8 Purity Authority Affiliation Fairness Harm Relevance to a moral decision Decreasing traditionalism  ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 8

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10 The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable long term sustainable limit: those in italics have been breached already 0 Carbon dioxide Species extinction rate Nitrogen cycle Phosphorus cycle Stratospheric ozone depletion Ocean acidification Freshwater use Change in land use Sustainable limit ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 10

11 Global population will grow to 9 BN and get older –Most of the additional people in Africa and Asia –Turbulence as the world rebalances to new centres of economic power New centres may not share the value systems of the West, or the Washington consensus –Washington consensus describes economic policy prescriptions for a market economy Technology (info, cogno, bio, nano) will continue to introduce changes in personal capacity and lifestyles Ecological, energy and environmental limits tested or breached –Population increases –Population lives in cities (70% by 2050) –New middle class uses electricity, travel, eats meat 11

12 Will our economy and society be similar to now, –Will it implicitly follow the Washington consensus –or –Will there be a new paradigm? Does geography matter? –If geography does matter, what sort of new paradigm might there be? City states? –or –If geography does not matter, will markets be global and so largely virtual? Based on affinity groups? 12

13 13 Today Trends  Scenarios explore the range of uncertainties Timing ? Forecasts are over-precise

14 Community based Washington consensus Virtual connections Geography matters Long HandMany Hands Second Hand Visible Hand 14

15 Capitalism, nation states, democracy and western value systems still dominant as concepts, –though not all countries/regions are moving to embrace these Nearest to current paradigm but –Degradation of state capability –Technology has fed the population Systems in constant crisis –But no new ways forward –International institutions stagger on 15

16 Capitalism, democracy and western values still dominant –Significant stand-outs and international tensions –Global markets –National governments in retreat Evolution of Washington consensus –Rethinking of taxation & pensions –Food revolution successful –ICT underpins all Lack of diversity leads to break down by 2030 –Inability to handle systemic volatility –Break down of international institutions 16

17 A crisis has caused the breakdown of the Washington consensus Society has re-formed around affinity groups –Multiple value systems accommodated –Democracy not seen as universal good –Complex arrangements of nation states and communities of affinity groups How do international issues get addressed –eg regulation –eg systemic challenges? 17

18 A crisis has caused the breakdown of the Washington consensus Society has re-formed around city states –Cities as wealth clusters “brands” –Failure of nation states –Democracy, capitalism and western values competing with other organising concepts, UN etc disappear Global commons abandoned –Conflicts in values, fewer implicit norms 18

19 Older population –Risk averse Changing balance of power –Globally away from West –From country to cities Impact of ICT –Reduce size of FS sector –Insurance declines –Retail banking automated –Digital money Environmental and natural resources –FS sought to shelter from volatility of natural systems 19

20 Ecology of FS more diverse than in 2010 Investment across regions to shelter from volatility Ageing society means –Pensions and security an emphasis –Private insurance sought but often impractical Commodities and equity trading reduced –Fewer larger corporates Singapore the most powerful FS hub 20

21 Has disappeared by 2050: replaced by –Long Hand if military and civil insecurity the main driver –Many Hands if cyber-security the main perceived threat 21

22 50 or so loosely coupled transnational systems with diverse regulatory regimes Investment outside “home” group discouraged –Implications for traders Affinity groups across geographies –Retail banking through “intelligent Financial Advisors” Trust within affinity group London and New York pre-eminent FS hubs due to diverse resident communities 22

23 50 or so loosely coupled city states with diverse regulatory regimes Investment outside “home” city state discouraged –Implications for traders Concern in wealthy city states around –pensions and security of supply of resources Trust within geography –Retail banking between individuals within city states No mechanism for handling global risk 5 pre-eminent FS hubs including Istanbul 23

24 By 2050 –Shrinkage of FS sector due to ICT –Insurance basis in question due to ICT –FS role in dealing with resources shortages Second Hand –It may be as good as it gets! Visible Hand –Homogeneity cause of volatility and break down Long Hand –Best for London as FS hub Many Hands –How real this one feels. 24

25 25 The full Report “In Safe Hands? The Future of Financial Services” is available in pdf on the Long Finance web site and the SAMI web site Members of L3F are happy to work with organisations through workshops or consultancy based on these scenarios. For this, or any other query, contact us at SAMI runs training on Futures on behalf of the UK Government’s Foresight Unit: for details see the SAMI web site. SAMI also circulates a monthly e-newsletter - to sign up please give me your business card.

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