2. © David Ward 2005 n lim [P n ] =  B i n  n-r+1 Four Bushfire Management Scenarios ABOUT BALGA, BUSHFIRE MOSAICS & WATER

3. . Thickets that ‘…the natives are in the habit of burning … at intervals of three years’ to drive out Tammar and Banded Hare Wallaby. John Gilbert, near Northam 1831 [Thanks to Dr. Ian Abbott] SOME SNIPPETS OF BUSHFIRE HISTORY … A Visiting English Naturalist... David Ward 2005

4. An Early Explorer... “the periodical extensive bush fires which, by destroying every two to three years the dead leaves, plants, sticks, fallen timber etc. prevent most effectually the accumulation of any decayed vegetable deposit…” Lt. Henry Bunbury, 1837 [Thanks to Dr. Sylvia Hallam] David Ward 2005

5. An Early Bushman & Magistrate... “ Leave the forest unburnt for a few years, allow the shrubs to flourish... dead leaves… to accumulate and the destruction of the aged Jarrah, the many young plants and seeds will be completed. Allow the fires as a rule to take their course – if possible every 2 or 3 years. ” Joseph Strelley Harris, 1882 David Ward 2005

6. You see, the natives when they were in the country they used to burn the country every three or four years…’. Frank Thompson, talking of the south coast, before First World War [Thanks to Dr. Ian Abbott, Perth] An Early Group Settler on the South Coast... David Ward 2005

7. Two Old Foresters... “It should be remembered that there was virtually no forest area at that time which carried more than 5 years’ leaf litter and the greater part varied from 1 to 3 years...” Former Conservators of Forests Roy Wallace & Alan Harris, describing the jarrah forest before 1920 David Ward 2005

8. “… it is not unreasonable to assume that the forest was completely burnt through every 2-4 years. Even as late as 1925... in unmanaged virgin forest east of Jarrahdale... fires were alight in December and continued to burn until the following March.” Former Conservator of Forests President of the Royal Society of WA Roy Wallace 1966 Former Conservator of Forests… David Ward 2005

9. Fire History from Balga Growth marks & fire marks Traditional fire interval was 2-4 years in dry woodland & forest ©David Ward 2005

10. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again ARBITRARY FUEL MOSAIC MAP USEFUL EQUIVALENT FUEL GRAPH ©David Ward 2005 3+

11. Mosaic Hierarchy Mosaics form a nested hierarchy. Any patch in a meso-mosaic may be, in itself, a micro-mosaic. Any meso-mosaic may be a patch in a macro- mosiac. This hierarchy can continue down the scale to the molecular level. It can continue up the scale to the Australia wide level.

12. About fire refuges... Some patches in a mosaic may have different fire return periods & ignition rules. A refuge patch may be moist, shady, or protected by a physical barrier, such as rocks. Even if carrying enough fuel to carry a fire, a refuge patch may not always ignite from fire in an adjacent patch. To ignite, it may need the radiant heat, or embers, from an intense fire in nearby heavy fuel.

13. Consider four scenarios - A: POOR OLD PUBLIC SERVANT B: FRIENDS OF THE FOREST C: SERIOUS SCIENTIST D: NYOONGARS KNEW BEST? So How Should We Manage Bushfire? ©David Ward 2005

14. Poor Old Public Servant Scenario A POPS has a legal duty of care, and knows that prescribed burning is essential for human safety. BUT some environmentalists, journalists & politicians apply pressure not to burn. Thinking of his career path & superannuation, POPS tries to strike a balance. There is minimal prescribed burning... ©David Ward 2005

15. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Start Mosaic ©David Ward 2005 12 patches 3+

16. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Year 1 ©David Ward 2005 Only 9 cliques remain Prescribed burning of one patch 4+3 3 3

17. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Year 2 ©David Ward 2005 Note: Only 7 cliques remain Wildfire from lightning 5+ 3 33 4

18. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Year 3 ©David Ward 2005 Note: Only 4 cliques remain Prescribed burning of 1 patch 5 44 3 3 63

19. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Year 4 ©David Ward 2005 Note: 4 cliques remain Arsonist strikes 3

20. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Year 5 ©David Ward 2005 SMOKE REACHES PERTH ! Prescribed burn of 1 patch… but... 333

21. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Year 6 ©David Ward 2005 Note: Only 3 cliques now - little diversity of habitat No prescribed burning... 3 4 44

22. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Year 7 ©David Ward 2005 Note: Only 2 cliques left - very low habitat diversity No prescribed burning… 5 5 4 3 3 3 33 3 3 5

23. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Year 8 ©David Ward 2005 Note: Only 1 clique left No prescribed burning….. 5 66634 4 4 44 44

24. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Poor Old Public Servant - Year 9 (or more) ©David Ward 2005 Mosaic diversity lost... Arsonist attack... Dense smoke over Perth for 10 days… Fire intensity potentially >5000Kw/m Flames >12 metres

25. ©David Ward 2005 BREAKING NEWS TOP PUBLIC SERVANT SACKED AFTER FIRE DISASTER Minister Says More Heads Will Roll Greens Call for Public Enquiry into Smoke Pollution & Global Warming ©David Ward 2005

26. Public Service Fire Cycle Minimal Prescribed Burning David Ward 2005 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Year 4 or more...

27. Poor Old Public Servant Outcomes Insufficient burning leads, inevitably, to ever bigger fires, and worse smoke. Big fires threaten human life & property, and cost millions of dollars to fight. Big fires kill thousands of animals and “Old Growth” trees, and pollute creeks & dams. Poor Old Public Servant becomes Rich Old Redundant Public Servant... The Minister turns to the Friends of the Forest for expert advice on fire ecology... ©David Ward 2005

28. Friends of the Forest Scenario B The Friends of the Forest believe that burning destroys ‘biodiversity’. They are media savvy, and so have political influence. The Minister follows their advice. All prescribed burning ceases, and access tracks are left to grow over. ©David Ward 2005

29. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Friends of the Forest - Start Mosaic ©David Ward 2005 12 patches

30. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Friends of the Forest - Year 1 - no burn ©David Ward 2005 Note: Only 9 cliques left

31. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Friends of the Forest - Year 2 ©David Ward 2005 Note: Only 4 cliques left No prescribed burning...

32. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Friends of the Forest - Year 3 - no burn ©David Ward 2005 Note: Only 1 clique No prescribed burning...

33. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Friends of the Forest - Year 4 (or more) Lightning strike with east wind - mosaic diversity lost... ©David Ward 2005 Dense smoke over Perth for 10 days... Fire intensity potentially>5000 Kw/m, flames >12 metres

34. ©David Ward 2005 GREENS SAY BIG FIRE DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING Minister Promises More Funds for Biodiversity & Climate Research By Our Special Environmental Correspondent N.E. Green

35. Friends of the Forest Fire Cycle David Ward 2005 Year 1Year 2 Year 3 Year 4+

36. Friends of the Forest Outcomes Attempted long fire exclusion leads, inevitably, to bigger bushfires. Bigger bushfires endanger human life & property. They denude soil, cause erosion, and pollute water with ash & silt. They kill old trees, which will take centuries to regrow. They kill many native animals, and deprive the survivors of food and shelter. They burn out small fire refuges, which are vital for some plants & animals. Seed-banks may be destroyed. Their smoke output is greater, and more noxious, than that from smaller fires. ©David Ward 2005

37. The Mathematics of Fuel Mosaics n lim [P n ] =  B i n  n-r+1 MERGING OF PATCHES UNDER LONG FIRE EXCLUSION IS MATHEMATICALLY INEVITABLE... ©David Ward 2005

38. Serious Scientist - Scenario C Serious Scientist sees ‘plant juvenile period’ as the key to ‘scientific fire management’. Supposedly, doubling (or trebling etc.) this will ensure a good seedbank. The juvenile period for shrubs of the upland jarrah forest is 3-4 years (funny that!) Therefore Serious Scientist says that 6-8 years is the minimal bushfire interval, with some patches not burnt for forty years or more. Serious Scientist also believes that irregular burning will increase ‘biodiversity’...

39. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Start - Mosaic Stable ©David Ward 2005 12 patches

40. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 1 - No Burning ©David Ward 2005 9 cliques 4 3 343 4

41. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 2 - No Burning ©David Ward 2005 4 cliques remain 5 4 454 5 3 33

42. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 3 - no burning ©David Ward 2005 single clique remains 5 4 4 5 4 5 3 3 3 6 6 6

43. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 4 - burn 2 patches ©David Ward 2005 Three cliques 5 4 4 5 45 66 6 7

44. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 5 - no burning ©David Ward 2005 Three cliques 6 5 5 6 56 77 7 8

45. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 6 - no burning ©David Ward 2005 Three cliques 7 6 6 7 67 88 8 9

46. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 7 - burn two patches ©David Ward 2005 Three cliques 8 7 7 8 78 310 3 9

47. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 8 - no burn ©David Ward 2005 Three cliques 9 8 8 9 89 411 4 10

48. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 9 - no burn ©David Ward 2005 Three cliques 9 9 910 512 5 11 10

49. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 10 - no burn ©David Ward 2005 Single clique 10 11 613 6 12 11 3 310

50. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Serious Scientist - Year 11 - trys to burn 6 y.o. ©David Ward 2005 Single clique - diversity lost Prescribed burn escapes into heavy fuel & is unstoppable. 10 DAYS SMOKE OVER PERTH

51. THOUSANDS OF NATIVE ANIMALS PERISH BIG FIRE KILLS OLD GROWTH TREES SCIENTIST BLAMES GLOBAL WARMING ROTTING CORPSES POLLUTE PERTH’S WATER SUPPLY PREMIER AGREES TO GREENS’ DEMAND FOR AN ENQUIRY

52. Serious Scientist Outcomes Irregular burning leads to general upward creep of fuel loads. Safe burning at 6-8 years becomes impossible. Similar eventual outcome to Poor Old Public Servant & Friends of the Forest.

53. Year 1 Years 2 on... Inevitable outcome... David Ward 2005 Serious Scientist Fire Cycle

54. Nyoongars Knew Best? Scenario D Dry forest & woodland (jarrah, wandoo, tuart & banksia) will carry summer fire every 2-4 years. Assume, from grasstree & historical observations, that Noongars burnt almost any place that would carry a summer fire. Lightning also caused summer fires, which, being unrestrained, could run for months, and burn any place that would carry fire. ©David Ward 2005

55. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Nyoongars - Start - Mosaic Stable ©David Ward 2005 12 patches

56. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Nyoongars - Year 1 - Mosaic Stable ©David Ward 2005 12 patches 3+

57. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Nyoongars - Year 2 - Mosaic Stable ©David Ward 2005 12 patches 3 33

58. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Nyoongars - Year 3 - Mosaic Stable ©David Ward 2005 12 patches 3 3 3

59. KEY Burnt last summerBurnt 1 summer ago Burnt 2 summers agoWill carry fire again Nyoongars - Year 4 - Stable & Cyclic ©David Ward 2005 12 patches 33 3 Self regulating mosaic, intensity <500 Kw/m, flames < 1 metre

60. Nyoongar Fire Cycle Stable mosaic Years 1,5,9... Years 4,8,12... Years 2,6,10... Years 3,7,11... David Ward 2005

61. Nyoongar fires were mild, frequent, in light fuel, and generally caused only light smoke. They germinated seeds, promoted useful food plants & fungi, & recycled nutrients. They promoted grass for kangaroos. They created & maintained a fine mosaic, with many small refuges for plants & animals. They prevented big bushfires, and protected water sources. Nyoongar Outcomes ©David Ward 2005

62. NYOONGAR NEWS 1829 MORE BOAT PEOPLE ARRIVE They Smell Bad, Steal Our Land, Sell Us Grog, and Flog Us for Making Karla in Mundak Elders Reject Wadjela Multiculturalism - ---- ©David Ward 2005

63. A little fire is quickly trodden out, Which, being suffered, rivers cannot quench. William Shakespeare, Henry VI, 1592. THOSE WHO HAVE ACTUALLY PUT THE WET STUFF ON THE RED STUFF WILL AGREE... THE END - ALMOST...