Summary Why quantify probability of success? –Management –Funders –Identify failure early
Summary Carcasses counted 1)Catch – effort model Collect data during “knock-down” phase Establish relationship between detection & effort
Summary Carcasses not available 2)Spatial – detection model Estimate parameters with experiments or literature –Homerange size –Detection probability of device –Reproductive rates –Dispersal kernels Incorporate uncertainty
Summary Requires biological understanding and statistics Arguably better than “wait-and-see”
Acknowledgements John Parkes Araceli Samaniego Luciana Luna Conservacion de Islas, Mexico Department of Conservation, NZ
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