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1 The North American Risk Model Greg Holland (Getty Images)

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1 1 The North American Risk Model Greg Holland (Getty Images)

2 2 The North American Risk Model What is a ‘Risk Model’? NARM Introduction and Overview Existing Risk Models Discussion Summary Holland NARM Brief Zurich 1012 (http://www.hse.gov.uk/myth/may.htm)

3 Holland NARM Brief Zurich What is a Risk Model? Event Set Hazard Module Vulnerability Module Risk Module Planning Decision Current Models: Private: RMS, AIR, Equecat, several in-house activities Public: Hazus, Florida, GEM, ACORD, OASIS Event Set Hazard Module Vulnerability Module Risk Module Planning Decision

4 Arose spontaneously from two NAS meetings: o Summit for Managing Extreme Events in September, 2011, o Follow-up Expert Workshop in April, 2012 Recent NRC report: Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative. National Academies Press Holland NARM Brief Zurich Why Develop a NARM? “The public and private sectors...should work cooperatively to encourage commitment to and investment in a risk management strategy that includes complementary structural and nonstructural risk-reduction and risk-spreading measures or tools.” and “A national resource…should be established…to develop more quantitative risk models and better understand structural and social vulnerability to disasters.”

5 The NARM seeks to increase society’s resilience to hazards, disasters, and extreme events and incorporate a balance among vested, diverse stakeholder interests: a strong focus on the needs of the user community collaboration among the academic, private, and public sectors and advancing the interests of these sectors long-term maintenance of the model that includes adaptations, as needed, to account for the NARM’s evolution over time an optimal mix of modeled and observed data. Holland NARM Brief Zurich Guiding Principles

6 Public-domain, Peer-reviewed model A flexible, modular system that enables: o Evolution to additional types of risk o Addition of user modules (both public and private) Incorporates a strong academic network in development and testing Improved Database o Improved use of public and private domain data o Incorporate GCM data and predictions to provide explicit information on future trends and changes o Help drive development of the public data base (observations and modeling) together with improved data quality assurance. Holland NARM Brief Zurich Niche and Uniqueness

7 The immediate focus is on: o Wind: hurricanes, windstorms, tornados, downbursts and microbursts o Flood: widespread riverine flood, flash floods in both mountainous and relatively flat terrain, snowmelt, failure of dams and other structures, and coastal inundation However the NARM will incorporate the flexibility to contend with multiple environmental risks Developed for North America but with adaptable capacity for widespread use across the globe Holland NARM Brief Zurich Risk Focus

8 Arose out of a Summit on Extremes and follow-up specialist meeting hosted by the National Academies White paper o Well advanced o Expert workshop November 28 th to finalize o Sets out the vision and development process Holland NARM Brief Zurich History

9 Design Phase under auspices of the National Academies Development Phase under auspices of Global Change Research Program Overall governance from a Board consisting of major stakeholders Design and Development Teams consist of a PI and specialist full and part-time members. Holland NARM Brief Zurich Governance and Expert Team

10 Design Phase: o 1 year, expected commencement 2013 Development Phase o 2-4 years commencing 2014 Maintenance and Continuing Development o 10 years Holland NARM Brief Zurich Development Stages Under Construction

11 NARM Design Team (PI and experts from academic, private and public sectors) ~12 month time frame Survey existing systems and expertise and initiate relationships as desirable/feasible Design around a standardized modular system (increased complexity, but balanced by enormous potential for community development) Specifically address computational and data needs and opportunities Include a basic level of test and validation to ensure validity of recommended approaches Specifically address process of maintenance and future development Deliverable is a structured road map for development. Holland NARM Brief Zurich Design Phase

12 Several Vendor Companies: o AIR, EQE (Equecat), RMS o In house company systems Public models o HAZUS o Florida Wind o ACCORD (hybrid) o OASIS o Other international Goal is to work with these, where feasible, and develop some partnerships Holland NARM Brief Zurich Existing Risk Models

13 Private/public international consortium Provides an excellent example for NARM o Experience with what to do and not to do o A working structure for public/private/academic interaction NARM will be different, but will benefit from their experience. Holland NARM Brief Zurich

14 Under an established development team led by a PI Development process established by Design Phase 2-4 years Deliverable will be a modular system o Basic Operating System o Hazard Module o Event sets o Vulnerability Module o Ease of connection to other proprietary modules Holland NARM Brief Zurich Development Phase

15 Arguably the most critical component is to ensure an ongoing maintenance and further development period o Suggested model is the highly successful formula of the NCAR community model support (over 20,000 registered users in 135 countries, academic, public, and private) Components: o Full maintenance support (help desk, upgrade process, defined test and documentation process for new modules, upgrades, etc) o Tutorials for new users o Workshops for existing users to network, share ideas. Holland NARM Brief Zurich Ongoing Development and Maintenance Phase

16 The NARM Vision: a strong focus on the needs of the user community collaboration among the academic, private, and public sectors and advancing the interests of these sectors long-term maintenance of the model that includes adaptations, as needed, to account for the NARM’s evolution over time an optimal mix of modeled and observed data. Holland NARM Brief Zurich Summary “We’ve considered every potential risk, except the risk of avoiding all risks” Additional Documentation: White Paper


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