1. HIGH SCHOOL STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS, BARRIERS AND ACCESS TO POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION IN CANADA: EVIDENCE FROM THE YITS Ross Finnie University of Ottawa Richard E. Mueller University of Lethbridge Andrew Wismer The MESA Project (University of Ottawa)

2. Introduction and Literature What are the family background factors behind attending PSE? What are the factors related to not attending? (arguably more important) Emphasis is on financial factors – these are what have historically been studied as related to PSE access Importance of financial factors tends to decrease once other important correlates are added to the analsysis

3. Data and Models YITS-A, Cycle 4 – respondents are 21 years old Access models – multinomial logit with three outcomes: have not attended, have “touched” college or “touched” university Barrier models – multinomial logit with the following outcomes: (1) have accessed, (2) no PSE aspirations, (3) a variety of barriers for PSE aspirants but who have not attended

4. PSE Access – Descriptive Usual findings – higher university attendance among females, those from urban areas, living in the Maritimes, from two-parent families, vismins, immigrants, families with higher parental education and income

5. Figure 1a: Parental Income, Parental Education and University Access University Access by Family Income, over Parental Education

6. Figure 1b: Parental Income, Parental Education and University Access, cont. University Access by Parental Education, over Family Income

7. PSE Access – Multinomial Logit Estimates Similar results to the descriptive statistics Coefficients tend to be most significant for university rather than college attendance Fitted values of access probabilities as related to parental income and parental education shown for ease of exposition

8. Figure 3a: Access to University Fitted Values – Parental Income

9. Figure 3b: Access to University Fitted Values – Parental Education

10. Barriers to Access – Descriptive By age 21, – 25% have not accessed PSE (M 31.2%, F 18.7%) 5.8% have no PSE aspirations (M 8.1%, F 3.4%) 10.7% have aspirations & no barriers (M 14.6%, F 6.6%) only 5.5% claim finances as at least one barrier (even) – Quebecers most likely to have no aspirations, and Albertans most likely to claim financial barriers – Rural students only slight more likely to claim financial barriers (6.5% vs. 5.2%) as are those from low income and low education families

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20. Barriers to Access – Multivariate Most likely to have accessed by age 21: – those from Ontario and Atlantic Canada – vismins (including immigrants) – those with higher parental education and income Those with no aspirations: – parental income and education are negatively related, but not as important (makes sense) Financial barriers: – somewhat higher for low-income, but lower for immigrants and vismins

21. 21 ↑ $50k ≈ ↓2% (M) ↓ 4% (F)

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23. Financial Barriers and Loans Can better loans increase participation rates? The upper bound would be 5.5% in our sample. Reasons for not having a student loan (among this 5.5%): – 78.1% said not needed (88.2% of those with no barriers) – suggests some other financial barrier (e.g., high opportunity cost or low perceived benefits?) – 4.9% not willing to borrow & 8.9% did not apply or other – 8.1% could not get a loan - suggests less than a 1 percentage point increase in participation possible (i.e., 5.5% x 8.1%)

24. Conclusions Two parts – Access (who goes?) and Barriers (who doesn’t go?) Access results are well known Barrier results less so – Parental income and education less important for those who don’t want to go – only 5.5% of sample claim financial barriers and yet most claim they don’t need a loan – suggesting factors other than a liquidity constraint are at play

25. Thank you!