Our question: What’s the effect of managerial quality, or talent on corporate performance?or Are managers as important as the circumstances: Economy and industry factors, firm size, intellectual property (patents, brands)? This is similar to the historical debate: Do people or circumstances affect history? Think: Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin and Churchhill. But what about Mikhail Gorbachev? 2
William Shakespeare had the right answer (in Twelfth Night, spoken by Malvolio): “Some men are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them.” both So, like all complex questions- does heredity or the environment shape us?—the answer is both. Managers are clearly crucial for corporate success (otherwise, why pay them so much?). 3
Compare how Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase weathered the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Lou Gerstner saved IBM, starting in 1993 (Share price increased during his tenure from $12 to $103) Compare Jack Welch’s leadership of General Electric (1981-2001: Share price increased from $0.50 to $33.50) with Jeff Immelt’s ( 2001- today: share price decreased from $33.50 to $13.87) And what about Warren Buffet at Birkshire Hathaway? (1965-2007: EPS rose from $4.00 to $4,093). 4
Managerial quality is a “big issue” in the business world: Huge and controversial managerial compensation Leadership issues in business school courses and books Managers as celebrities Economic and finance theories all but ignore managerial quality and impact. Emphasis on factors of production: capital, labor, etc.; industrial structure; and supply and demand conditions. 5
The effects of overconfident managers: They overinvest in poor projects and M&As. (Malmendier and Tate, Journal of Finance, December 2005). CFOs style (gender, age, educational background): Older CFOs are more conservative in financial reporting; CFOs with undergraduate degrees are more aggressive (Ge et al., “Do CFOs Have Styles of Their Own?, 2008, University of Washington). Managers’ personality and ethics predict fraud (Cohen et al., “The Role of Managers’ Behavior in Corporate Fraud,” 2008, Boston College). 6
Do CEOs matter? Yes. CEOs death (in Denmark at least) negatively affects future firm performance; the death of a board member has no effect on performance (Bennedsen et al., “Do CEOs Matter?” 2006, Copenhagen Business School). Which CEOs skills matter? Execution-type skills (resolve, drive, proactive) more than interpersonal and team-related skills (a good listener). (Kaplan et al., “Which CEO Characteristics and Abilities Matter,” 2009, University of Chicago). 7 Missing: Measurement of Managerial Quality
Managerial quality is arguably the most important intangible asset of a company. Managerial quality measurement is critical for a fair and effective compensation (pay) of managers. unique Managerial quality is a major driver of corporate value and, therefore, of considerable interest to investors. Unlike other value-drivers (e.g., oil reserves, commercial property, bank branches), managerial quality is unique to the firm and therefore very hard to value. 8
THE MEASUREMENT OF MANAGERIAL QUALITY (An alternative calculation of managerial quality using Data Envelop Analysis (DEA), in P. Demerjian, B. Lev and Sarah McVay, “Quantifying Managerial Ability: A New Measure and Validity Tests,” 2009.) 9 Companies’ Production Function : Enterprise Performance= Physical Capital + Human Capital + R&D, Brands + Other Resources X MQ: The Enabler Stylized Example CompaniesSales GrowthPhysical Capital Growth Labor GrowthManagerial Quality A10% -- B15%10% 5%
LEV-RADHAKRISHNAN ESTIMATION OF MANAGERIAL QUALITY (MQ) Source: B. Lev and S. Radhakrishnan, “The Valuation of Organization Capital,” in Measuring Capital in the New Economy, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005. 10 Revenue Growth (Cost Containment) = 1 Change Physical Capital + 2 Change No. Employees + 3 Change R&D + 4 MQ Proxied by SG&A Details: SG&A (sales, general and administrative expenses) includes most expenditures for MQ: managers’ compensation, consultants’ fees, IT expenses, advertising, etc. Estimation done yearly and within industries The form of the estimation model is multiplicative, regression run on logs of variables.
Dell: Managerial Quality Leading Earnings, Sales and Stock Prices 13
PROOF OF CONCEPT: DOES MANAGERIAL QUALITY AFFECT SHAREHOLDER VALUE? 14 Equity Valuation Model Enterprise Value = Assets In Place + Growth Potential = Present Value Abnormal Earnings = Expected Earnings* Minus Cost of Equity + Terminal Enterprise Value Inserting our estimate of organization capital: Enterprise Value = Assets In Place + Growth Potential + Managerial Quality Finding: MQ accounts for 24% of companies’ differences in market-over-book value. *Expected corporate earnings are derived from consensus analyst forecasts.
MOST IMPORTANTLY: MQ PREDICT FUTURE COMPANY AND STOCK PERFORMANCE Source: B. Lev, S. Radhakrishnan and W. Zhang, “Organization Capital,” 2009, Abacus, forthcoming. 15
Source: B. Lev, S. Radhakrishnan and W. Zhang, “Organization Capital,” 2009, Abacus, forthcoming. 16
Managerial quality is crucial for company performance and shareholder value. Managerial quality can be reliably measured, offering important applications: Investment analysis and securities valuation. Managerial compensation. Corporate governance (tracking changes in MQ). 17