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Colliers International is pleased to welcome you to our briefing with Anatole Kaletsky Accelerating success.

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Presentation on theme: "Colliers International is pleased to welcome you to our briefing with Anatole Kaletsky Accelerating success."— Presentation transcript:

1 Colliers International is pleased to welcome you to our briefing with Anatole Kaletsky Accelerating success.

2 Tony Horrell Chief Executive Officer

3 Mark Charlton Research & Forecasting

4 The Great Rotation: from politics to fundamentals & back again Anatole Kaletsky Co-Chairman & Chief Economist, GaveKal Dragonomics Commentator, Reuters & Herald Tribune

5 Challenges of Britain: bankruptcy or austerity 2. US: stagnation or debasement 2. Europe: euro breakup or fiscal federation 3. China: slowdown or crash landing 5

6 Challenges for Britain: stagnation or growth? 2. US: stall speed or escape velocity? 3. Europe: recession or depression? 4. China: growth or overheating? 6

7 GDP gap is biggest on record 7

8 Though employment has recovered quickly… 8

9 but industry and construction are collapsing… 9

10 and other indicators are stagnating 10

11 British growth has been dismal since

12 But let’s take a longer view 12

13 Britain tried hardest but achieved least 13

14 US headwinds now tailwinds: Housing 14

15 Headwind now tailwind: Banking 15

16 Headwind to tailwind: Small business credit 16

17 Headwind becoming tailwind: Government 17

18 Private GDP already at “escape velocity” 18

19 Market pricing of euro breakup risk 19

20 Northern Comfort balances Southern Misery 20

21 Central Europe is again super- competitive 21

22 Necessary conditions for euro survival 1. Political federalism: central control of tax and spending 2. Fiscal federalism: joint responsibility for debt and banking 3. Monetary federalism: central bank support for federal debt 22

23 No fiscal problems in Euro-zone as a whole 23

24 EZ debt lower than US or Britain 24

25 Current account is near balance 25

26 China left policy stimulus until very late 26

27 Economic growth has now rebounded 27

28 … is really happening in China 28

29 China’s affluent outgrowing “broad masses” 29

30 Japan: biggest market driver of 2013? 30

31 Or will bond bear market be the big event? 31

32 Equities should withstand rising bond yields 32

33 How far could the pound fall? 33

34 If sterling falls the euro will too 34

35 Q&A with Anatole Kaletsky Facilitated by Mark Charlton


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