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Colliers International is pleased to welcome you to our briefing with Anatole Kaletsky Accelerating success.
Tony Horrell Chief Executive Officer
Mark Charlton Research & Forecasting
The Great Rotation: from politics to fundamentals & back again Anatole Kaletsky Co-Chairman & Chief Economist, GaveKal Dragonomics Commentator, Reuters & Herald Tribune
Challenges of 2009-12 1. Britain: bankruptcy or austerity 2. US: stagnation or debasement 2. Europe: euro breakup or fiscal federation 3. China: slowdown or crash landing 5
Challenges for 2013-14 1. Britain: stagnation or growth? 2. US: stall speed or escape velocity? 3. Europe: recession or depression? 4. China: growth or overheating? 6
GDP gap is biggest on record 7
Though employment has recovered quickly… 8
but industry and construction are collapsing… 9
and other indicators are stagnating 10
British growth has been dismal since 2007 11
But let’s take a longer view 12
Britain tried hardest but achieved least 13
US headwinds now tailwinds: Housing 14
Headwind now tailwind: Banking 15
Headwind to tailwind: Small business credit 16
Headwind becoming tailwind: Government 17
Private GDP already at “escape velocity” 18
Market pricing of euro breakup risk 19
Northern Comfort balances Southern Misery 20
Central Europe is again super- competitive 21
Necessary conditions for euro survival 1. Political federalism: central control of tax and spending 2. Fiscal federalism: joint responsibility for debt and banking 3. Monetary federalism: central bank support for federal debt 22
No fiscal problems in Euro-zone as a whole 23
EZ debt lower than US or Britain 24
Current account is near balance 25
China left policy stimulus until very late 26
Economic growth has now rebounded 27
… is really happening in China 28
China’s affluent outgrowing “broad masses” 29
Japan: biggest market driver of 2013? 30
Or will bond bear market be the big event? 31
Equities should withstand rising bond yields 32
How far could the pound fall? 33
If sterling falls the euro will too 34
Q&A with Anatole Kaletsky Facilitated by Mark Charlton
FEBRUARY Global economic growth: no decoupling (Real GDP, % change) World U.S Japan
16 October Hollowed Out State – does State becomes less relevant Economic Policy dependence on global sentiments and financial markets Control.
The Business Cycle Measuring Economic Activity UNIT 1.04.
Jonathan Bradley THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2004 HOW ROBUST IS THE GROWTH?
Uncertainty and Volatility in Global and Domestic Markets Robert B. Engel President & Chief Executive Officer December 6, 2010.
The U.S. Economy, 2007 – Today: Collapse, Stimulus, Austerity, “Recovery” Robert Pollin Department of Economics and Political Economy Research Institute.
– What’s Ahead? Jonathan Basile Head of Business Cycle Research, AIG Global Economics Business Survey Chair, ISM-New York
Noncompetitive division charts and policy questions The following pages provide a range of indicators (listed in alphabetical order) that you can use to.
1 Key Economic Concepts for the Euro Challenge Student Orientations, 2013 Euro Challenge.
The shift and the shocks Martin Wolf, Associate Editor & Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times Leverhulme Globalisation Lecture Series 28 th March.
After the Recession: How Hot? David Wyss Chief Economist TVB New York September 8, 2004.
1 1 Presented by: Sara L. Johnson Managing Director Global Macroeconomics Group DRI-WEFA August 7, 2001 The U.S. Economic Outlook: Turbulent Times.
Freddy Van den Spiegel Chief Economist Economic outlook. Are we getting out of the mess? Brussels, February
Review of U.S. Economy. Review of Macro Concepts Unemployment (Ch. 7) Inflation (Ch. 7) GDP (Ch. 8) Economic growth & determinants (Ch. 9) Money, central.
Disinflation, Crisis, and Global Imbalances, Firas Mustafa.
Global economic forecast May 18th The economy is recovering strongly, not least because of temporary factors such as a normalisation of inventories.
Global economic forecast December 14th The recovery is softening, with the weakness of private-sector jobs creation giving particular cause for.
US Economy Forecast 2011, 2012 Till Schreiber College of William & Mary August 4 th 2011 Nafa Annual Convention, Williamsburg, VA.
Robertson, Griege & Thoele Investment Market Analysis January st Quarter Market Review Global Markets Rebound st Quarter Market Review.
Business Cycles. Characteristics & Causes Business Cycles – Regular ups & downs of Real GDP Business Fluctuations – Rise & fall of Real GDP over time.
Future Financial Forecast An update on the big economic picture for credit, interest rates and inflation. Paul Cahill Chief Executive Officer.
Dougie Adams Oxford Economics. A Two-speed Global Economy January 2011 Dougie Adams
Macroeconomic Overview J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley, NBER, and Kauffman Foundation April, 2013.
Brief Review of Lecture 1 on Policy and Development -- US, EU, Japan, and China are about 70% of the global economy -- Global economy is slowing down due.
J.P.Morgan Chase IV ASTANA Economic Forum Astana, Kazakhstan May 3-4, 2011 S T R I C T L Y P R I V A T E A N D C O N F I D E N T I A L The Global Economy:
Economic and Social Update November 2007 William E. Wallace, Lead Economist World Bank, Indonesia November 2007.
After the Recession: The Shape of the Recovery David Wyss Chief Economist September 2003.
Fiscal Policy Tool for economic growth Federal Government makes fiscal policy decisions Federal Budget Fiscal Year Takes 18 months to prepare.
US Economy Forecast 2014, 2015 Till Schreiber Senior Lecturer Professor College of William & Mary September 26 th 2014 Nafa Annual Convention, Aspen, CO.
AS Economics PowerPoint Briefings Introduction to Macroeconomics AS Economics.
NCA Annual Conference 2009 Robert Elliot Chief Executive.
C27BA Introductory Macroeconomics Lecture 1 Introduction to Macro.
1 Regional Economic Outlook Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Masood Ahmed Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department International.
Copyright © 2007 Global Insight, Inc. The U.S. Economic Outlook: How Much Fallout from The Housing Meltdown? Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist NAHB April.
2009 BIAC BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE Global economic growth: how deep will it fall and when will it bounce back? Jonathan Coppel Counsellor, Office of the OECD.
Jump-starting the Global Economy Bold Policy Recommendations for the G7 Countries Nariman Behravesh Chief Economist Global Insight October 28, 2002.
Global economic forecast November 1st The economy has started to recover, but growth is heavily driven by short-term factors, such as a stabilisation.
1 The Global Financial Crisis: What’s Next? Bank Guarantee Fund Conference Warsaw, May 21, 2010 Mark Allen Senior IMF Resident Representative for Central.
Global economic forecast November 16th The recovery is softening, with the weakness of private-sector jobs creation giving particular cause for.
The Global Economic Outlook Carmen M. Reinhart Deputy Director, Research Department International Monetary Fund October 24, 2002.
After the banking crisis: what now? Monetary, fiscal and regulatory policy There are three problems: 1. The liquidity crisis and QE 2. QE and monetary.
2002 outlook FFG Global Investment Research February 2002.
Professor Emeritus of Economics February 25, 2015 REMNANTS OF THE GREAT RECESSION.
A Tour of the World Chapter 1. © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved The Crisis Table 1-1 World Output Growth since 2000.
Crises in currency unions: Spain Laurent K. Frey E809: International Monetary and Financial Systems.
The Macroeconomic Outlook for the Euro Area Ray Barrell (NIESR) March 2005.
The Causes and Cures of the Economic Crisis Dean Baker, Co-Director Center for Economic and Policy Research April 13, 2012.
Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research
US Economy Forecast 2013, 2014 Till Schreiber College of William & Mary September 26 th 2013 Nafa Annual Convention, Savannah, GA.
Brief Review of Lecture 1 on the Global Economy -- US, EU, Japan, and China are about 54% of the global economyUS, EU, Japan, and China are about 54% --
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