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Colliers International is pleased to welcome you to our briefing with Anatole Kaletsky Accelerating success.
Tony Horrell Chief Executive Officer
Mark Charlton Research & Forecasting
The Great Rotation: from politics to fundamentals & back again Anatole Kaletsky Co-Chairman & Chief Economist, GaveKal Dragonomics Commentator, Reuters & Herald Tribune
Challenges of 2009-12 1. Britain: bankruptcy or austerity 2. US: stagnation or debasement 2. Europe: euro breakup or fiscal federation 3. China: slowdown or crash landing 5
Challenges for 2013-14 1. Britain: stagnation or growth? 2. US: stall speed or escape velocity? 3. Europe: recession or depression? 4. China: growth or overheating? 6
GDP gap is biggest on record 7
Though employment has recovered quickly… 8
but industry and construction are collapsing… 9
and other indicators are stagnating 10
British growth has been dismal since 2007 11
But let’s take a longer view 12
Britain tried hardest but achieved least 13
US headwinds now tailwinds: Housing 14
Headwind now tailwind: Banking 15
Headwind to tailwind: Small business credit 16
Headwind becoming tailwind: Government 17
Private GDP already at “escape velocity” 18
Market pricing of euro breakup risk 19
Northern Comfort balances Southern Misery 20
Central Europe is again super- competitive 21
Necessary conditions for euro survival 1. Political federalism: central control of tax and spending 2. Fiscal federalism: joint responsibility for debt and banking 3. Monetary federalism: central bank support for federal debt 22
No fiscal problems in Euro-zone as a whole 23
EZ debt lower than US or Britain 24
Current account is near balance 25
China left policy stimulus until very late 26
Economic growth has now rebounded 27
… is really happening in China 28
China’s affluent outgrowing “broad masses” 29
Japan: biggest market driver of 2013? 30
Or will bond bear market be the big event? 31
Equities should withstand rising bond yields 32
How far could the pound fall? 33
If sterling falls the euro will too 34
Q&A with Anatole Kaletsky Facilitated by Mark Charlton
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