Presentation on theme: "Molybdenum Strategic Investment Program:"— Presentation transcript:
1 Molybdenum Strategic Investment Program: Discussion MaterialsOutlook for Molybdenum & CobaltJustin J. HonrathCommodity AnalystSociety of Mining Engineers, New York SectionNew York, New York29 March 2011January 13, 2011Thank you very much for the kind introduction.Good afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen,I am grateful to be presenting at SME’s New york chapter on the Cobalt and moly marketsBut before I begin, let me quickly introduce CPM Group for those in the audience who are not familiar with us.30 Broad Street | 37th Floor New York, NYJustin J. Honrath Commodity Analyst
2 DisclosureThe views expressed within this presentation are solely those of CPM Group. Such information has not been verified, nor does CPM make any representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. While every effort has been made to ensure that the accuracy of the material contained in the presentation is correct, CPM Group cannot be held liable for errors or omissions. CPM Group is not soliciting any action based on it. Information contained here should not be relied on as specific investment or market timing advice.Copyright CPM Group 2011.January 13, 2011
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4 % of Population Living inUrban Areas Urbanization to Drive Raw Materials Demand% of Population Living inUrban AreasJanuary 13, 2011I OverviewII Explain chartIIIPops ~37% of Global. Most recent is 50%IVTakes long to develop, positivePer Capita GDP (PPP)Higher levels of income often translate into a greater percentage of the population living in or near cities, requiring greater quantities of raw materials to support construction efforts.Of China’s 1.3 billion citizens, roughly 43% of China’s population lived in urban areas in 2008.Source: CIA World Factbook, IMF
5 A Two-Speed Economy Contribution to World GDP Growth I Bifurcation of contribution of global growth.II Divergence Anemic growth in Developed; Strong but moderating growth in emerging economies as governments look to tighten domestic inflationary pressuresSource: The Conference Board, CPM Group
6 Despite Efforts to Cool Economy Real Demand From ChinaDespite Efforts to Cool EconomyPer Capita Vehicle ConsumptionVehicles per 1,000 People (Vehicle Registration/Population)I Industrial progress translates into gains in personal incomeII Consumer/Discretionary benefits. IE. Auto sector-large consumer of raw materialsIII PC Vehicle ownership was 10% of that of the US; Auto Sales updateIn 2009 Chinese Per Capita Vehicle Ownership Per 1000 People was only 10% of that of the United StatesSource: World Bank, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Census NBS, CPM GroupSource: CPM Group, Antaike, IMOA, Bloomberg
7 Molybdenum and Cobalt: A Side-By-Side The majority of cobalt is sourced from by-product production, mitigating the correlation between cobalt supply and prices.Releases from U.S. gov’t stockpiles have in the past skewed the relationship between cobalt S&D fundamentals and prices.Demand is reflective of consumer spendingCobalt reserves and production are concentrated in countries with high political risks.Complex and fairly opaque supply chainHighly concentrated supply chain keeps prices vulnerable to supply shocks.Relatively inelastic demand because molybdenum is typically used in very small quantities in end-uses that require specific properties. Molybdenum is able to withstand highly corrosive environments and extreme temperatures.Demand is correlated to industrial production rather than trends in consumer spending.Molybdenum demand is leveraged to the energy industry.I Concentrated Supply ChainII Inelastic Demand-a) Chemical b) nicheIII Correlated to IPIV NRG IndustryI By-Product; prices less correlated to Co supply, greater emphasis on other metals in questionII Gov’t stockpiles skewed relationshipIII Cyclical consumer spendingIV Upshot- Cobalt reserves & production concentrated in politically risky countriesV Complex and opaque supply chainWhile the answer to that question is more complex than the ideas laid on this slide, there are key fundamentals difference between the supply and demand of these metalsMolybdenum prices are highly attuned to their fundamental, in that small shifts in supply and demand can led to larger moves in prices.-This partially stems from molybdenum's concentrated supply chain, which's keep prices vulnerable supply shocks.-Demand meanwhile is relatively inelastic because molybdenum is typically used in very small quantities in end-uses that require specific properties, such as the ability to withstand highly corrosive environments and extreme temperatures.-Molybdenum demand also is correlated to industrial production, including long term trends in energy infrastructure, rather than discretionary consumer spending trends.Cobalt prices on the other hand, have not held the same strong relationship with supply and demand-For one, the majority of cobalt is sourced from by-product production, mitigating the correlation between cobalt supply and prices.-Also the releases of cobalt from gov’t stockpiles have, at least in the past, acted as a buffer between cobalt fundamentals and prices.-Even though cobalt reserves and production are concentrated in countries with high political risks, these risks have not necessarily tacked on a significant premium to prices.-On the demand side, their has been significant advancements in technology that have expanded the end-use markets for cobalt. This has lead to robust overall demand growth, however, substitution still remains a threat to cobalt's market share in some of these industries.So, while molybdenum and cobalt are categorized as minor metals, their market structure are quite differentAnd as you will see throughout this presentation the outlooks for these metals over the next two years also lie on the opposite ends of the spectrum.
8 Lagging Recovery This Go-Around Indexed Molybdenum, Cobalt, and Base Metals PricesMonthly, through February 2011I Past two years – 74% price growth; surprisingly it is in line with laggards of the base/industrial metals complexII Previous decade Mo prices rose 12-fold bt 2000 and 2008, compared to 3-4 fold increase seen in bmIII question of framing-What changed?Source: Platts, LME, and Metal Bulletin
9 Reactive Molybdenum Prices Monthly, through February 2011China imposes tighter export quotas & a decline in by-product outputMine closures in the Huludao area in ChinaFiscal stimulus fuels restocking & China becomes a net importer of Mo. Followed by cyclical decreases & increases in demand and steel production.Temporary mine closures, increased demand from Chinese steel producers & delay in Chinese exportsSharp increase in steel demand & insufficient roasting capacityI 445 mmlbs production. 1/6 of nickel market. Moly prices reactive to shifts in supply and demandII Performance-sharp increase in steel/roasting capcity lags/mine closures/tightening export policiesIII Weak steel from finIV Fiscal stimulus, China net importer lends support, but puts a cap on prices.A surge in copper mine productionForced inventory selling & weak steel production
10 Stock Builds Weigh on Molybdenum Prices 2009 & 2010 Price PerformanceStock Builds Weigh on Molybdenum PricesSteel fabricators, outside China, remained hesitant about rebuilding working stockpiles of molybdenum. At the same time, brokers, trading houses, and merchants in the western world continued to draw down their stocks to meet spot market orders.Concerns about stocks builds in China kept price growth subdued.The implied market balance suggests stocks in China rose to over 150 million pounds of molybdenum during the past two years.Based on stockpiling seen in other base metals markets in China, over a quarter of these stocks are estimated to be held as long-term strategic holdings and another third is estimated to held by consumers, whom have replenished depleted working inventories.I Stock builds explain price performanceII Steel fabricators were hesitant to try to catch falling knifeIII Chinese mkt participants astute; over 150 mm lbsIV ¼ long term strategic holdings; 1/3 consumers who have worked down these working inventories over the past two years
11 RoW Short of Mo While China’s Surplus Builds Implied Market BalancesAnnual, 2000 – 2010eI Context- Two reasons this is not as bearish as you’d expect. Chinese mkt balanceII Export/mining policies by Chinese government to keep Mo safeguarded (holdings sticky)Meanwhile, until last year the western world has been theoretically short Mo since 2002III RoW theoretically short of Mo over the past few yearsNote: Chinese Market Balance = Domestic Supply – Net Exports – Domestic Fabrication DemandSource: CPM Group, Raw Materials, MEG, WBMS, CNIA, Company Reports , Industry Sources
13 Supply Growth Delayed by Recession Global Molybdenum Mine ProductionAnnual data, projected through 20122010e Molybdenum Production,by countryI Concentration has been root of price price moves-China-> Supply more and more safeguarded which I will discuss in momentII % of moly production idled. All capacity back online, low hanging fruit has been picked & near-term development delayedIII 13-18% less supply*Forecasts include supply disruption allowance and a portion of the possible and probable development projects;Source: CPM Group ‘Molybdenum Market Outlook’
14 Little Committed Supply Over the Next 3 Years Summary of Mo Development ProjectsAnnual data, projected through 2015Project PipelineEndako Expansion- Gibraltar Expansion- Mineral Park Phase IIZangezur Expansion*Donggou Expansion*Los Bronces ExpansionMax Moly ExpansionToquepala Expansion- Andacollo Expansion*Climax Restart*Cananea ExpansionCuajone ExpansionI Large supply growth not expected until 2014II Out of all the projects, only Climax is sizable 30 million poundsIIIBottlenecks extend deficitNote: * - indicates a possible or probable (uncommitted) project. Source: CPM Group
15 Comprehending Longer Term Shifts in Supply Strategic stockpiling by Governments and Other Market Participants with Longer Term Holding Strategies Should Quell Concerns About 2009 & 2010 Stock BuildsReportedly China is studying a plan to build strategic reserves for 10 minor metals. The minor metals that have been included in the study are rare earths, tungsten, antimony, molybdenum, tin, indium, germanium, tantalum and zirconium.Changes in the Molybdenum Mining Quota in ChinaIn 2010 the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a mining quota of million lbs, which was allocated at the province level. However, mine production is estimated to have exceeded the quota by over 10 million lbs.In line with the government’s 12th Five Year Plan, China's Ministry of Land and Resources is planning to classify molybdenum as a national resource. Their new mining quota is expected to be enforced more strictly, constraining growth from historically price sensitive producers.Government imposed rationing acts as a barrier to entry.Chinese companies continue to look abroad for future mineral resources. - i.e. Hanlong investment plansIncreased regulation of the molybdenum market in China remains one of the key reasons the current buildup in Chinese stocks is not bearish for near term prices but rather supportive of higher prices.I laid out my ideas, hopefully making it a little easier for those taking note.China is considering joining other countries, such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe, that already hold strategic stockpiles molybdenum. The government is reportedly studying a plan to build strategic reserves for several rare earths and minor metals, including molybdenum.This policy would be consistent with the government’s past regulation on molybdenum mine production.Government imposed rationing has acted as a barrier to entry which helps explain the rational of Chinese companies that have secured long-term supplies through overseas investments.
16 2010 Mining Quota in China Chinese Molybdenum Mine Production Annual, Projected through 2013p2010 China Molybdenum Mining Quota by ProvinceMillion Lbs. (metal content)In line with China’s new Five year plan, the government has made moves to reduce the over production of its domestic resources for the export market.China’s Ministry of Land and Resources is planning to classify molybdenum as a national resource and will limit mining output in This will add molybdenum to a list that is comprised of gold, tungsten, tin, antimony, and rare earths.These are not necessarily new trends in Chinese mining policy. To continue to deter development of small-scale uneconomic mining, in March of 2010 China’s Ministry of Information and Technology imposed a quota on domestic molybdenum production of million pounds per year.Mine production did exceed this target last year by roughly 10 million pounds. Government statistics last year again misrepresented domestic output, as some miners over reported production to help guarantee a high mining quota allocation for 2011.The new quota will be issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources, and will be enforced more strictly.While the 2011 quota has not been released yet. We are expecting an increase in the quota from 2010 to upward of 200 million pounds. This is based off the fact that the export quota was left practically unchanged in 2011.Source: USGS, RMD, CCS , WBMS, Antaike, CNIA, CPM Group and Company Reports
17 Major Shifts in Chinese Molybdenum Trade Chinese Molybdenum Trade (Metal Content)Chinese Ore & U.S. Mo Prices (Metal Content)Bi-weekly, Through 25 March 2011Despite the surplus in China, domestic molybdenum prices has remained at elevated levels.Stocks have not flooded out of China. Net exports from China show are estimated at roughly 5 million pounds, which is less than 1/10th net exports in Export data is reported in gross weight so this figure may differ slight depending on metal content assumptions.The stock build in China largely lies in long-term strategic stockpiles or sticky investor holdings.The fact that stocks are locked up in China should amplify concerns about the supply deficits in the Rest of the World.Notes: Not adjusted for transport costs. The differential is computed with a VAT adjustment.Chinese trade data through Decemeber 2010, does not account for inventory changes. Source: CPM Group, Customs General, Metal Bulletin
19 A Staged Recovery in Molybdenum Demand Emerging Markets Remain A Large Driver of Mo Demand in 2011 After Robust Rebound in Developed Economies in 2009/10Mo Demand Correlated With Industrial DevelopmentRecovery in Steel Production Slows in U.S., Europe, and Japan in 2011Western world steel producers may continue to buy molybdenum on the spot market, calibrating supplies to market conditions and demand fundamentals.China and Other Emerging Economies Continue to Provide Underlying Support to Mo DemandThe recovery in Molybdenum demand is expected to be staged after recording a robust rebound in 2010.This year we are forecasting that emerging markets will remain a leading driver of molybdenum demand.Demand growth elsewhere is expected to remain positive as molybdenum demand is highly correlated to industrial development.While growth in steel production in the US, Europe, and Japan is expected to moderate in 2011 compared to 2010, there is room for a stronger recovery down the road
20 Molybdenum: An Industrial Metal World Industrial Production and Mo DemandAnnual, through 2010eWorld Industrial Production & Mo PricesMonthly, through January 2011This is of particular importance to the molybdenum market because molybdenum demand is highly correlated to industrial production. Double digit growth in industrial development in the emerging markets will help support the global molybdenum market.During the last decade the correlation or R-squared between growth in global molybdenum demand and industrial production was over 85%.Molybdenum prices and industrial production have also seen a fairly strong relationship over the past five years, but there has been a break in that relationship, which could suggest a positive swing in moly prices.Source: CPM Group, AMM, Platts, CPB Netherlands
21 Mo Demand Leveraged to Steel Markets Molybdenum End-Uses, 2010eMolybdenum Demand by Region, 2010eThe close relationship to industrial production stems from the fact that molybdenum demand is leveraged to the steel markets with roughly 70% of the molybdenum end-uses in steelMolybdenum demand also is influenced by the energy industry. Longer term energy constraints continue to spur demand for infrastructure builds that contain molybdenum-bearing products. In addition to new refinery capacity being built, notably in Asia and the Middle East, molybdenum demand in catalysts will be lifted over the next few years by tighter fuel specification regulations (i.e. sulfur content limits).Regional, the United States, Europe, and Japan remain the largest end users but China’s market share continues to grow.With different growth prospects for developed and emerging markets in 2011, China is expected to remain the key driver for molybdenum demand. Demand growth x.x% in 2011.Source: CPM Group, IMOA,
22 Global Steel Output Near All Time Highs World Steel ProductionMonthly, Jan – Jan. 2011On a global basis, the recovery in the steel market, was helped by1) stimulus measures – which are now mostly wound down,2) Some restocking in the private sector – which is mostly complete,And Thirdly) and large infrastructure projects in emerging markets.In 2010, global crude steel production recovered stronger than expected, up16% y-o-y.We are expecting growth to moderate to 5.2% this year as the restocking bump recedes. Growth could then pick up to 5.5%+ in 2012.Source: World Steel
24 A Bullish Outlook Emerges Mo Prices are Set to Rise as Market ConditionsExpected near-term development projects delayed by global credit crisis and lower molybdenum and copper pricesChanges in Chinese Mining Policies Need to be Put in ContextStocks built in China over the past two years may become increasingly stickyChina continues to look abroad for future mineral resourcesMo Demand Growth is Projected to Slow, But Remain at Historical High LevelsThe bifurcation in global economic growth will keep molybdenum demand dependent on emerging markets in Further recovery in the steel markets of developed economies is supportive of elevated Mo demand growth rates over the next two years.Unlike other LME-traded metals, investment demand is not a key driver of molybdenum prices. The newly launched LME contract remains thinly traded.So, To recap, we believe moly prices are set too rise a market conditions continue to tighten.The current supply over hang in China is not necessarily bearish if you put changes in Chinese mining policies into context.And lastly, CPM Group’s bullish outlook for molybdenum prices largely rest on supply-side drivers as molybdenum demand growth is projected to slow, but remain at historically high levels.
25 Tighter Market Conditions Approach CPM Base Case Scenario:Estimated InventoriesRunning Market BalanceThis year the molybdenum market is forecast to remain in a narrow surplus.Over the next few month molybdenum price gains may be fairly reserved but moving into the second quarter seasonal increases in global steel production is expected to boost prices. Expectations of deficit conditions in 2012 and tighter regulation on Chinese molybdenum production is forecast to keep the upward trend in prices in tact into the fourth quarter. We are projecting molybdenum prices could rise to $21.00 on a annual basis in this year.As a the market moves into a deficit in 2012, prices are forecast to rise to $28.50 on a annual basis.Projected supply includes the release of metal from strategic stockpiles.Source: CPM Group ‘Molybdenum Market Outlook
26 Still at a Nascent Stage Mo Official LME 3-Month Prices & Open InterestDaily, through 25 March 2011Mo LME Cash Prices & LME InventoriesDaily, through 25 March 2011I didn’t want to end this presentation without mentioning the LME’s new molybdenum contract.However, as you can see here, current open interest less than 20 contracts. So overall effect on prices is rather insignificantSources: CPM Group, LME
28 Event-Driven Cobalt Prices Monthly, through February 2011Global Financial CrisisBan on cobalt ore & concentrates exports from the DR Congo, Increased battery demand, market deficitAfrican output recovers, Russian exports and US stockpile sales increaseProducer Price changed to Reference Price, commercial Co battery use beginsLower Co supplies from DR Congo & CanadaNew sources of supply come online, weakening economic conditionsImproved demand, LME contract launched, DRC-First Quantum feudAsian Financial CrisisRebound in Co supplies
29 Cobalt Supply Hinges on DRC World Cobalt Mine Production, 2009Cobalt Supplies by Source & DemandAnnual, projected through 2012pWorld Cobalt Refined Production, 2009Chinese refined production excludes output from Umicore. Probable supply is not adjusted for disruption allowances. Stockpile release do not show builds in stocks.Sources: CPM Group
30 But Massive By-Product Additions to Keep Market In Surplus Summary of Co Development ProjectsCobalt capacity, projected through 2013MtProject PipelineRamuRavensthorpeAmbatovyIdaho Cobalt*-Cameroon East*Nico-Las CamariocasYerillaMt. Gunson-Muliashi North-Weda Bay-Boleo*Primary Project% of MarketSource: Metals Economics Group; Excludes 19,000 mt SOCOMIN project
31 Supply-side Drivers for Cobalt Prices Higher Copper, Nickel, and Platinum Prices are Increasing Supplies of By-product Cobalt ProductionThe U.S. Defense Logistical Agency is winding down its 20-year program to sell off nearly 100 million lbs of cobalt.Uncertainty Overhangs Cobalt’s Forward Supply CurveThe majority of new supplies forecast to come online are sourced from the politically unstable Democratic Republic of Congo, which ranked in the lowest quartile in the most recent survey of mining “friendly” policies published by the Fraser Institute.Technical difficulties recovering nickel from low-grade laterite deposits and cost overruns may to delay or curtail recoveries of cobalt as a Ni by-product.So, To recap, we believe moly prices are set too rise a market conditions continue to tighten.The current supply over hang in China is not necessarily bearish if you put changes in Chinese mining policies into context.And lastly, CPM Group’s bullish outlook for molybdenum prices largely rest on supply-side drivers as molybdenum demand growth is projected to slow, but remain at historically high levels.
32 Elevated Growth Rates Persist Total Cobalt Demand by End-Use 1999Annual, p2012p
33 Greatest Gains Projected in Top End-Uses Growth of Cobalt Demand By-End Use (ranked by 2009 volume)Annual, pBatteriesSuperalloysHybrid electric vehicles, power tools and consumer electronics such as personal computers and cell phonesSuperchargers, aircraft turbine engines, gas turbines, chemical and petroleum plantsOther chemicalsCarbidesTire adhesives, soaps, driers, feedstuffs, anodizing, recording media, electrolysisManufacturing of tools and the cutting or shaping parts of power machineryDyes/PaintsMagnetsArtistic colors, fabrics, plastics, glass, enamels, ceramicsAutomotive and electric sensors, ignition systems, meters, medical and geophysical imaging applicationsCatalystsHS SteelsHydroprocessing & hydrodesulfurization of crude oil, gasoline, jet fuel, low-sulfur diesel, plastic resinCutting tools, gear hobs, mills, taps, drill reamers, broachesSources: CPM Group
34 Demand-side Drivers for Cobalt Prices Cyclical Demand Resumes After Recession-Led SlumpRecovery in lagging consumers spending trends affecting the aerospace sector, power generation, automobile production, personal electronic equipment, etc.Cobalt Chemicals Exposed to Growing Global Market Share for Rechargeable Batteries for Automotive Applications (Hybrid Electric Vehicles, Electric Vehicles, and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles) Uncertainty Overhangs Cobalt’s Forward Supply CurveTraditional LiCoO2 cathode material continues to face substitution to mixed metal oxide materials, that may contain less or no cobalt.The LME Cobalt ContractAs a market of last resort, the industry can use the LME’s delivery option to sell excess stocks in times of oversupply or to source material during supply shortages. The cobalt market will become more exposed to investment demand.So, To recap, we believe moly prices are set too rise a market conditions continue to tighten.The current supply over hang in China is not necessarily bearish if you put changes in Chinese mining policies into context.And lastly, CPM Group’s bullish outlook for molybdenum prices largely rest on supply-side drivers as molybdenum demand growth is projected to slow, but remain at historically high levels.
35 Questions Remain Over the Japanese Market Refined SupplyJapanese fabrication demand appears to be unaffected by the 11 March earthquakeSumitomo’s Niihama nickel-cobalt refining complex located on Shikoku island in the south is largely away from the damage that occurred in the Northeast.Magnitude of the Earthquake’s Effects on End-Use Consumption Less ClearCurrent estimates suggest lost automotive production over 300,000 units since 11 MarchThis is negative for personal expenditures as well, but the effects will be largely unknown until the timeline for reconstruction is more clear. Some estimates peg losses in global auto production as high as five million units due to losses in auto components productionCobalt prices may decline in the second quarter as ample supplies and marginally lower demand for lithium-ion batteries from electronics manufacturers due to the negative impacts of the earthquake on personal expenditureSo, To recap, we believe moly prices are set too rise a market conditions continue to tighten.The current supply over hang in China is not necessarily bearish if you put changes in Chinese mining policies into context.And lastly, CPM Group’s bullish outlook for molybdenum prices largely rest on supply-side drivers as molybdenum demand growth is projected to slow, but remain at historically high levels.
36 Cobalt Contract Gets off to a Running Start Co Official LME 3-Month Prices & Open InterestDaily, through 25 March 2011Cobalt LME Cash Prices & LME InventoriesDaily, through 25 March 2011Sources: CPM Group, LME
37 Glutted Market Conditions Persist …But the Majority of Growth Projected in the Politically Unstable DRCCPM Base Case Scenario:Estimated InventoriesRunning Market BalanceSource: CPM Group
38 CPM Group – Commodity Research Special StudiesLong Term OutlooksAnnual YearbooksMonthly AdvisoriesWeekly Report
39 Thank You! Questions? January 13, 2011 Justin J. Honrath Commodity AnalystSociety of Mining Engineers, New York SectionNew York, New York29 March 201130 Broad Street | 37th Floor New York, NYJustin J. Honrath Commodity Analyst