1. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Modelling and mapping of critical loads of heavy metals and their exceedances under the LRTAP Convention Integrated Assessment of Air pollution effects on biodiversity Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Max Posch, Jaap Slootweg (www.mnp.nl)www.mnp.nl Gert Jan Reinds (www.alterra.wur.nl)

2. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Proposed Outline Integrated Assessment Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)

3. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Outline Integrated Environmental Assessment Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”)

4. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Emissions (driving forces and pressures) Winds (Atmosph. Transport) Deposition ( impacts on human health and Ecosystems) Source: Adapted from “Pollution Atmospherique”, 1999… (?)

5. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Integrated Environmental Assessment Driving Forces PressureStateImpact Policy response

6. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Industrial production Agriculture Energy NH 3 emissions NO x emissions VOC emissions PM emissions CO 2 emissions N 2 O emissions HFC emissions PFC emissions SO 2 emissions SF 6 emissions Single and multiple pollutant emission controls S deposition N deposition O 3 formation CH 4 emissions Secondary aerosols Primary particles Critical loads for acidification Critical loads for nitrogen Critical levels for ozone Life expectancy Health guidelines O3 Radiative forcing/GWP Surface waters Terrestrial eco systems Human health Climate Crops Approximative illustration of multi-pollutant multi-effect relationships Critical loads of h. metals Drivers PressuresImpactsState Response

7. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Source: IIASA Environmental impacts Economic activities Emission control policies Agriculture NO x emissions SO 2 emissions Solvents, fuels, industry Energy use NH 3 dispersion S dispersion VOC emissions NH 3 emissions Transport Critical loads f. acidification Critical loads f. eutrophication NO x dispersion O 3 formation NH 3 control & costs NO x /VOC control&costs VOC control & costs Emission control costs Critical levels for ozone Environmental targets Primary PM dispersion Other activities PM control & costs Primary PM emissions Secondary aerosols PM Population exposure SO 2 control & costs NO x control & costs O 3 Population exposure Scenario analysis Optimization Integrated Environmental Assessment (RAINS model)

8. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Focus of this presentation Driving Forces PressureState Impact Abatement Scenarios

9. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Integrated Environmental Assessment Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Outline

10. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution

11. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Emissions (driving forces and pressures) Winds (Atmosph. Transport) How much deposition Is acceptable ? Source: Adapted from “Pollution Atmospherique”, 1999… (?)

12. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 1976 1995 Acidification effects in Jizera mountains, including the need for anticipated management and clearcutting

13. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 How much deposition is acceptable… …to avoid adverse effects of air pollution to the sustainability of our natural environment ?: The concept of critical loads !

14. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Integrated Environmental Assessment Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Outline

15. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Definition of critical loads and objectives In general : –a quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledge For heavy metals : –The critical load of a heavy metal is the highest total metal input rate (g ha-1 a-1) below which harmful effects on human health and ecosystems will not occur in an infinite time perspective, according to present knowledge Objective of the “critical load approach” in integrated environmental assessment : Deposition should not exceed critical loads to avoid harmful effects to a sustainable natural environment. Sustainable biodiversity is needed for Human Well-being.

16. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Sustainable biodiversity is needed for Human Well-being Source: Millenium Ecosyst. Assessment http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.359.aspx.ppt#8

17. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Indicators of heavy metal impacts used to calculate critical loads Source: Slootweg J, Hettelingh J-P, Posch M, Schütze G, Spranger T, De Vries W, Reinds GJ, Van ’t Zelfde M, Dutchak S, Ilyin I (2007) Water, Air and Soil Pollution: Focus 7:371-377

18. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Integrated Environmental Assessment Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Outline

19. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Methodology for the computation of critical loads: Steady State Mass Balance (SSMB) For the comutation of CL(M) = critical load of metal M M gu = Metal uptake M le = Metal leaching Source: Reinds, 2008.

20. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Metal Uptake Metal uptake was computed as tree growth × metal content in wood. Metal content was obtained from the Mapping Manual Forest growth was obtained from the EFISCEN database for Europe and from published data (e.g. Alexeyev, Markov & Birdsey 2004 for Russia) for the other countries Source: Reinds (2008)

21. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Critical concentrations and leaching Metal leaching was computed as critical metal concentration × water flux Critical metal concentrations are listed in the Mapping Manual as a function of pH and DOC concentration class pH was obtained using soil type from the soil map and additional soil profile data bases. DOC was obtained using a transfer function as suggested in the Mapping Manual Source, Reinds (2008)

22. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Georeferenced information is needed as input to the steady state mass balance equation Soil maps: (European Soil Data Base v2 polygon map 1:1 M for Europe and Russia; FAO Soil map 1:5 M) Landcover Maps: LRTAP land cover map (100 m cells); Global Land Cover 2000 map (1 km cells) Forest growth regions (EFISCEN, Russian Regions, EECCA countries) Map overlay yields 3.8 M units with forest or other natural vegetation, 1.3 M of which > 1km 2 Source: Reinds (2008)

23. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Maps of input parameters SoilLandUseEMEPOverlay Source: Reinds (2008)

24. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Critical load of Cadmium to protect 95% of ecosystems from adverse effects of Cd deposition Source: Reinds (2008)

25. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Critical load of Mercury to protect 95% of ecosystems from adverse effects of Hg deposition Source: Reinds (2008)

26. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Critical load of lead to protect 95% of ecosystems from adverse effects of Pb deposition Source: Reinds (2008)

27. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 5 th percentile CL(Cd) to protect human health (g ha -1 a -1 ) 5 th percentile CL(Pb) to protect human health (g ha -1 a -1 ) 5 th percentile CL(Hg) to protect human health (g ha -1 a -1 ) 5 th percentile CL(Cd) to protect Ecosystems (g ha -1 a -1 ) 5 th percentile CL(Pb) to protect Ecosystems (g ha -1 a -1 ) 5 th percentile CL(Hg) to protect Ecosystems (g ha -1 a -1 ) Critical load of Cadmium Critical load of lead Critical load of Mercury Critical load to protect 95% of natural systems Public health endpoints Biological endpoints

28. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Similar georeferenced input is required for the computation of critical loads for acidification

29. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Critical loads for acidification Source: Reinds (2008)

30. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Collaboration with EECCA experts and scientists is required to review and revise geographical data on critical loads and model input data !

31. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Example Scenarios: Current Legislation (CLE) Full Implementation of the Protocol (FI) Full Implementation of the Protocol plus Additional Measures (FIAM) Integrated Environmental Assessment Adverse environmental impacts of air pollution “Critical loads” to comprehend “acceptable air pollution” to avoid adverse impacts Collaboration with EECCA countries needed ! Examples of impacts from different air pollution abatement alternatives (“scenarios”) Outline

32. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Areas at risk of health or ecosystem effects in 2000 based on Official Emission data incl. TNO adjustments (depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow) Area@risk to Health 2000 Cd (%) Area@risk to Health 2000 Pb (%) Area@risk to Health 2000 Hg (%) Area@risk of Ecotox. 2000 Cd (%) Area@risk of Ecotox. 2000 Pb (%) Area@risk of Ecotox. 2000 Hg (%) EU25 0.0324.322.40.0248.6485.75 Europe (excl. EECCA) 0.8316.652.40.0753.4485.34

33. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Areas where deposition of lead and mercury Exceed critical loads (depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow) At risk of lead deposition At risk of mercury deposition

34. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Tentative results of the risk of the deposition of chromium, nickel, copper,zinc, arsenic and selenium in Europe (excl. EECCA) (depositions computed by EMEP MSC-E, Moscow) Scenario Percentage of area in Europe at risk caused by exceedance of critical loads of the following heavy metals: CrNiCuZnAsSe 20000.070.710.761.6602.41 2020-CLE0.080.400.441.0601.09 2020-FI0.010.210.341.0600.94 2020- FIAM 0.010.030.251.0600.33

35. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Conclusions and recommendations The effect oriented approach helps to set comprehensive targets emission reductions to protect human health and biodiversity and ecosystem functions Thus, critical loads were used to support the Oslo protocol (1994) and Gothenburg protocol (1999) under the LRTAP Convention Collaboration with experts and scientists of EECCA Parties to the LRTAP Convention is needed to improve knowledge on requirements for the protection of human health, biodiversity and ecosystem fuctions against effects of air pollution Preliminar national data files and models can be obtained by NFCs in EECCA countries from the Coordination Centre for Effects of the ICP Modelling and Mapping. Collaborative projects between National Focal Centres in EECCA countries and other institutions such as EMEP MSC-E, MSC-W and the EMEP Centre for Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling (CIAM) is recommended.

36. Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE), www.mnp.nl/cce Workshop to promote the ratification of the protocol on heavy metals across the entire UNECE Region, Yerevan, 14-16 May 2008 Further information and publications: Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) (www.mnp.nl/cce) International Cooperative Programme on Modelling and Mapping (www.icpmapping.org)