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Chapter 3 Decision Analysis. The Six Steps in Decision Making 1.Clearly define the problem at hand 2.List the possible alternatives 3.Identify the possible.

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Presentation on theme: "Chapter 3 Decision Analysis. The Six Steps in Decision Making 1.Clearly define the problem at hand 2.List the possible alternatives 3.Identify the possible."— Presentation transcript:

1 Chapter 3 Decision Analysis

2 The Six Steps in Decision Making 1.Clearly define the problem at hand 2.List the possible alternatives 3.Identify the possible outcomes or states of nature 4.List the payoff or profit of each combination of alternatives and outcomes 5.Select one of the mathematical decision theory models 6.Apply the model and make your decision

3 Case of Maria Rojas Maria Rojas is considering the possibility of opening a small dress shop on Fairbanks Avenue, a few blocks from the university. She has located a good mall that attracts students. Her options are to open as mall shop, a medium-sized shop, or no shop at all. The market for a dress shop can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities is 1/3 for each market. The net profit or loss for the medium-sized and small shops for the various market conditions are given in the following table. Building no shop at all yields no loss and no gain.

4 Case of Maria Rojas

5 Types of Decision-Making Environments Type 1: Type 1:Decision making under certainty knows with certainty Decision maker knows with certainty the consequences of every alternative or decision choice Type 2: Type 2:Decision making under uncertainty does not know The decision maker does not know the probabilities of the various outcomes Type 3: Type 3:Decision making under risk knows the probabilities The decision maker knows the probabilities of the various outcomes

6 Decision Making Under Uncertainty 1.Maximax (optimistic) 2.Maximin (pessimistic) 3.Criterion of realism (Hurwicz) 4.Equally likely (Laplace) 5.Minimax regret There are several criteria for making decisions under uncertainty

7 STATE OF NATURE ALTERNATIVE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) MAXIMUM IN A ROW ($) Small shop75,00025, ,000 75,000 Medium-sized shop 100,00035, , ,000 Do nothing Maximax Used to find the alternative that maximizes the maximum payoff Locate the maximum payoff for each alternative Select the alternative with the maximum number Maximax

8 STATE OF NATURE ALTERNATIVE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) MINIMUM IN A ROW ($) Small shop75,00025, ,000 Medium-sized shop 100,00035, ,000 Do nothing Maximin Used to find the alternative that maximizes the minimum payoff Locate the minimum payoff for each alternative Select the alternative with the maximum number Maximin

9 Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz) weighted average A weighted average compromise between optimistic and pessimistic Select a coefficient of realism  Coefficient is between 0 and 1 A value of 1 is 100% optimistic Compute the weighted averages for each alternative Select the alternative with the highest value Weighted average =  (maximum in row) + (1 –  )(minimum in row)

10 STATE OF NATURE ALTERNATIVE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) CRITERION OF REALISM (  = 0.8)$ Small shop75,00025, ,000 52,000 Medium-sized shop 100,00035, ,000 68,000 Do nothing Criterion of Realism (Hurwicz) For the small shop alternative using  = 0.8 (0.8)(75,000) + (1 – 0.8)(–40,000) = 52,000 For the medium-sized shop alternative using  = 0.8 (0.8)(100,000) + (1 – 0.8)(–60,000) = 68,000 Realism

11 STATE OF NATURE ALTERNATIVE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) ROW AVERAGE ($) Small shop75,00025, ,000 20,000 Medium-sized shop 100,00035, ,000 25,000 Do nothing Equally Likely (Laplace) Considers all the payoffs for each alternative Find the average payoff for each alternative Select the alternative with the highest average Equally likely

12 Minimax Regret opportunity lossregret Based on opportunity loss or regret, the difference between the optimal profit and actual payoff for a decision Create an opportunity loss table by determining the opportunity loss for not choosing the best alternative Opportunity loss is calculated by subtracting each payoff in the column from the best payoff in the column Find the maximum opportunity loss for each alternative and pick the alternative with the minimum number

13 Minimax Regret Table 3.7 Opportunity Loss Tables STATE OF NATURE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) 100, ,00035, ,000 0 – (- 40,000) 100, ,00035, ,000 0 – (- 60,000) 100, , STATE OF NATURE ALTERNATIVE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) Small shop25,00010,000 40,000 Medium-sized shop 00 60,000 Do nothing100,00035,000 0

14 STATE OF NATURE ALTERNATIVE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) MAXIMUM IN A ROW ($) Small shop25,00010,000 40,000 Medium-sized shop 00 60,000 Do nothing100,00035, ,000 Minimax Regret Table 3.8 Minimax

15 Decision Making Under Risk Decision making when there are several possible states of nature and we know the probabilities associated with each possible state expected monetary value ( EMV ) Most popular method is to choose the alternative with the highest expected monetary value ( EMV ) EMV (alternative i ) = (payoff of 1st state of nature) x (prob. of 1st state of nature) + (payoff of 2nd state of nature) x (prob. of 2nd state of nature) + … + (payoff of last state of nature) x (prob. of last state of nature)

16 EMV for Maria Rojas Each market has a probability of 1/3 Which alternative would give the highest EMV ? The calculations are EMV (small shop) = (1/3)($75,000) + (1/3)($25,000) + (1/3)($-40,000) = $20,000 EMV (medium shop) = (1/3)($100,000) + (1/3)($35,000) + (1/3)($-60,000) = $25,000 EMV (do nothing) = (1/3)($0) + (1/3)($0) + (1/3)($0) = $0

17 STATE OF NATURE ALTERNATIVE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) ROW AVERAGE ($) Small shop75,00025, ,000 20,000 Medium-sized shop 100,00035, ,000 25,000 Do nothing Probability1/3 EMV for Maria Rojas Largest EMV EMV (small shop) = (1/3)($75,000) + (1/3)(25,000) + (1/3)(-40,000) = $20,000 EMV (medium shop) = (1/3)($100,000) + (1/3)(35,000) + (1/3)($-60,000) = $25,000 EMV (do nothing) = (1/3)($0) + (1/3)($0) + (1/3)($0) = $0

18 Expected Value of Perfect Information ( EVPI ) EVwPI (Expected Value with Perfect Information) is the long run average return if we have perfect information before a decision is made EVwPI = (best payoff for 1 st SoN)x P 1st SoN + (best payoff for 2 nd SoN)x P 2nd SoN + … + (best payoff for n th SoN)x P nth SoN EVPI (Expected Value of Perfect Information) places an upper bound on what you should pay for additional information EVPI = EVwPI – Maximum EMV

19 Expected Value of Perfect Information ( EVPI ) Scientific Marketing, Inc. offers analysis that will provide certainty about market conditions (favorable) Additional information will cost $25,000 Is it worth purchasing the information?

20 STATE OF NATURE ALTERNATIVE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) ROW AVERAGE ($) Small shop75,00025, ,000 20,000 Medium-sized shop 100,00035, ,000 25,000 Do nothing Probability1/3 Expected Value of Perfect Information ( EVPI ) 1.Best alternative for good state of nature is opening a medium shop with a payoff of $100,000 Best alternative for average state of nature is opening a medium shop with a payoff of $35,000 Best alternative for bad state of nature is to do nothing with a payoff of $0 EVwPI = ($100,000)(1/3) + ($35,000)(1/3) + ($0)(1/3) = $45,000 2.The maximum EMV without additional information is $25,000 EVPI = EVwPI – Maximum EMV = $45,000 - $25,000 = $20,000

21 1.Best alternative for good state of nature is opening a medium shop with a payoff of $100,000 Best alternative for average state of nature is opening a medium shop with a payoff of $35,000 Best alternative for bad state of nature is to do nothing with a payoff of $0 EVwPI = ($100,000)(1/3) + ($35,000)(1/3) + ($0)(1/3) = $45,000 2.The maximum EMV without additional information is $25,000 EVPI = EVwPI – Maximum EMV = $45,000 - $25,000 = $20,000 Expected Value of Perfect Information ( EVPI ) So the maximum Maria should pay for the additional information is $20,000

22 Expected Opportunity Loss Expected opportunity loss Expected opportunity loss ( EOL ) is the cost of not picking the best solution First construct an opportunity loss table For each alternative, multiply the opportunity loss by the probability of that loss for each possible outcome and add these together Minimum EOL will always result in the same decision as maximum EMV Minimum EOL will always equal EVPI

23 STATE OF NATURE ALTERNATIVE GOOD MARKET ($) AVERAGE MARKET ($) BAD MARKET ($) MAXIMUM IN A ROW ($) Small shop25,00010,000 40,000 25,000 Medium-sized shop 00 60,000 20,000 Do nothing100,00035, ,000 Probability1/3 Expected Opportunity Loss Minimum EOL Opportunity loss table EOL (small shop) = (1/3)($25,000) + (1/3)($10,000) + (1/3)($40,000) = $25,000 EOL (medium shop) = (1/3)($0) + (1/3)($0) + (1/3)($60,000) = $20,000 EOL (do nothing) = (1/3)($100,000) + (1/3)($35,000) + (1/3)($0) = $45,000

24 Homework 03 Prob. 3.16, 3.18, 3.19, 3.22, 3.26, 3.27


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