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Chp 1: Consumption-based model and overview

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1 Chp 1: Consumption-based model and overview
郑振龙 厦门大学金融系 个人网站:http://efinance.org.cn

2 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Structure Basic Pricing Equation Stochastic Discount Rate Prices and Payoffs Classic Issues in Finance Discount Factors in Continuous time Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

3 Investors’ Utility Function
Utility comes from consumption and is time seperable. u(•)is increasing and concave. The curvature of u captures investor’s aversion to risk and to intertemporal substitution. β is called subjective discount rate and it captures investors’ impatience. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

4 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Investor’s Objective e—original consumption level. --the amount of the asset he choose to buy. pt—the price of the asset at time t. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

5 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
First order condition is the loss in utility if the investor buys another unit of the asset. is the increase in (discounted, expected) utility he obtains from the extra payoff at t+1. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

6 Stochastic discount factor
Define the Stochastic discount factor mt+1(1.3): For every investor, m is the same for every asset. mt+1 is stochastic because it’s not known at t. mt+1 is also called the marginal rate of substitution. mt+1 is also called the pricing kernel, change of measure or a state-price density. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

7 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Basic pricing formula Putting (1.3) into (1.2) we can get (1.4): Breaking (1.2) into (1.3) and (1.4) represents a deep and useful separation. For example, notice p=E(mx) would still be valid if we changed the utility function, but we would have a different function connecting m to data. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

8 Prices and payoffs: Stocks
The price pt gives rights to a payoff xt+1. For stocks, the one-period payoff is: xt+1=pt+1+dt+1,so we get: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

9 Prices and payoffs: Return
Defines gross return: We can think return as a payoff with price one. So we get: 1=E(mR) Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

10 Prices and payoffs: Price-dividend ratio
Dividing the stock payoff by dt, we can get a payoff of the form xt+1=(1+pt+1/dt+1)dt+1/dt corresponding to a price pt/dt. So we get: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

11 Prices and payoffs: Excess return
If you borrow a dollar at Rf and invest it in an asset with return R, you pay no money out-of-pocket today, and get the payoff R-Rf. You can also short-sell stock b and invest the proceeds in stock a and get an excess return Re with zero price. Se we get: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

12 Prices and payoffs: Managed portfolio
00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

13 Prices and payoffs: Moment condition
Taking an unconditional expectation of ptzt=Et(mt+1xt+1)zt yielding E(ptzt)=E(mt+1xt+1zt ). We can think this operation as creating a “security”with payoff xt+1zt, and “price” E(ptzt) represented with unconditional expectations. 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

14 Prices and payoffs: discount bond
The payoff of one-period discount bond is 1. So we have: pt=Et(mt+1) 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

15 Prices and payoffs: options
For an European call option, we have: ct=Et[mt+1max(ST-X,0)] 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

16 Prices and payoffs: Real or nominal
If prices and payoffs are nominal, we should use a nominal discount factor. For example, if p and x denote nominal values, then we can create real prices and payoffs to write: Obviously, it is the same as defining a nominal discount factor by Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

17 Prices and payoffs: risk-free rate
Because the risk-free rate is known ,so: 1=E(mRf)=RfE(m) Rf=1/E(m) (1.6) If a risk-free rate is not traded, we can define 1/E(m)as the “shadow” risk-free rate. It is sometime called “zero-beta” rate. 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

18 Economics behind risk-free rate
Suppose: no uncertainty, and power utility function: Then we have: Findings: 1.Rf is high when people are impatient(βis low). 2. Rf is high when consumption growth is high. 3. Rf is more sensitive to consumption growth if γ is large. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

19 Risk-free rate under uncertainty
Suppose c growth is lognormally distributed, Start with Using the fact that normal X means: We have: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

20 Risk-free rate under uncertainty(2)
Additional finding: Captures the effect of precautionary savings. For the power utility function, the curvature parameter γ simultaneously controls intertemporal substitution—aversion to a consumption stream that varies over time, risk aversion—aversion to a consumption stream that varies across states of nature, and precautionary savings. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

21 Risk Corrections--price
Using the definition of covariance cov(m,x)=E(mx)-E(m)E(x), we can write p=E(mx) as: The first term is the asset’s price in a risk-neutral world. The second term is a risk adjustment. Marginal utility u’(c) declines as c rises. Thus an asset’s price is lowered if its payoff covaries positively with consumption. It’s the covariance not the variance determines the riskiness. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

22 Risk Corrections--Returns
From 1=E(mRi), we have:( ) Assets whose returns covary positively with consumption must promise higher expected returns to induce investors to hold them. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

23 Idiosyncratic risk does not affect risk
Only the component of a payoff perfectly correlated with m generates an extra return. Idiosyncratic risk, uncorrelated with m, generate no premium. We can decompose any payoff x into a part correlated with m and an idiosyncratic part uncorrelated with m by running a regression: x=proj(x|m)+ε Projection means linear regression without a constant: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

24 Expected Return-Beta Representation
From (1.12) we have (1.14): This is a beta pricing model. The λm is the price of risk and is the same for all assets, and βi,m is the quantity of risk in each asset and varies from asset to asset. With m=β(ct+1/ct)-γ,we can get (1.15) by taking a Taylor approximation of (1.14): Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

25 Mean-Variance Frontier
All assets priced by m must obey(1.17): It’s because: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

26 Classic Implications(1)
Means and variances of asset return must lie in the wedge-shaped region as Fig.1.1.The boundary is called the mean-variance frontier. E(R) Slope σ(m)/E(m) Ri Idiosyncratic risk Rf Some asset returns σ(R) 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

27 Classic Implications(2)
All returns on the frontier are perfectly correlated with m: the frontier is generated by|ρm,R|=1. Returns on the upper part are perfectly negatively correlated with m and hence positively with consumption. They are “maximally risky” and thus get the highest expected returns. 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

28 Classic Implications(3)
All frontier returns are also perfectly correlated with each other. This fact implies that we can span or synthesize any frontier return from two such returns. For example if you pick any single frontier return Rm then all frontier returns Rmv must be expressible as Rmv= Rf + a (Rm -Rf ) for some number a. 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

29 Classic Implications(4)
Since each point on the mean-variance frontier is perfectly correlated with m, we must be able to pick constants a, b, d, e such that m = a + bRmv Rmv = d + em. Thus, any mean-variance efficient return carries all pricing information. Given a mean variance efficient return and the risk free rate, we can find a discount factor that prices all assets and vice versa. 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

30 Classic Implications(5)
Expected returns can be described in a single - beta representation using any mean-variance efficient return (except the risk free rate). E(Ri) = Rf + βi,mv [E(Rmv) -Rf ].(Proof is in the next slide) The essence of the β pricing model is that, even though the means and standard deviations of returns fill out the space inside the mean-variance frontier, a graph of mean returns versus betas should yield a straight line. Since the beta model applies to every return including Rmv itself, and Rmv has a beta of one on itself, we can identify the factor risk premium as λ = E(Rmv-Rf ). 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

31 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Proof (problem1.3) We know there are a,b, such that m=a+bRmv. Determines a, b by pricing Rmv and Rf: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

32 Classic Implications(6)
We can plot the decomposition of a return into a “priced” or “systematic” component and a “residual,” or “idiosyncratic” component as shown in Figure 1. Asset inside the frontier or even on the lower portion of the frontier are not “worse” than assets on the frontier. You would not want to put your whole portfolio in one “inefficient” asset, but you are happy to put some wealth in such assets. 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

33 Mean-standard deviation frontier
The slope of the mean-standard deviation frontier is the largest available Sharpe ratio. From (1.17),the slope of the frontier is Under power utility function, we have Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

34 Mean-standard deviation frontier(2)
Suppose consumption growth is lognormal, we have Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

35 Mean-standard deviation frontier(3)
Using the approximation for small x that ex≈1+x, get(1.20) Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

36 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Equity premium puzzle the slope of the mean-standard deviation frontier is higher if the economy is riskier – if consumption is more volatile – or if investors are more risk averse. Over the last 50 years in the U.S., real stock returns have averaged 9% with a standard deviation of about 16%, while the real return on treasury bills has been about 1%. Thus, the historical annual market Sharpe ratio has been about 0.5. Aggregate consumption growth has A mean and standard deviation of about 1%. Thus, we can only reconcile these facts with (1.20) if investors have a risk aversion coefficient of 50! This is the “equity premium puzzle.” 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

37 Equity premium puzzle(2)
Aggregate consumption has about 0.2 correlation with the market return, If you add this fact, you need risk aversion of 250 to explain the market Sharpe ratio in the face of 1% consumption volatility! Clearly, either 1) people are a lot more risk averse than we might have thought 2) the stock returns of the last 50 years were largely good luck rather than an equilibrium compensation for risk, or 3) something is deeply wrong with the model, including the utility function and use of aggregate consumption data. 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

38 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Random walk From (1.1), we have (1.21) It says that prices should follow a martingale after adjusting for dividends and scaling by marginal utility. Since consumption and risk aversion don’t change much day to day, we might expect the random walk view to hold pretty well on a day-to-day basis. However, more recently, evidence has accumulated that long-horizon excess returns are quite predictable. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

39 Time-varying Expected returns
Writing our basic equation for expected return as: It says that returns can be somewhat predictable. risk and risk aversion change over the business cycle, and this is exactly the horizon at which we see predictable excess returns. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

40 Present-value statement(1)
Suppose an investor can purchase a stream {dt+j} at price pt . His long-term objective is: The first order condition gives (1.23): From pt=Et[mt+1(pt+1+dt+1)], we can get When there is no speculative bubbles, it will get (1.23). Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

41 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Risk adjustment From (1.23) we have: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

42 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Continuous time Suppose an asset’s price is pt, and it pays a dividend stream Dt. The Utility function is Define discount factor in continuous time as: Then we can write the pricing equation as(1.28): Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

43 One-period pricing equation
From (1.28) we have: For small Δ we get(1.29): (1.29)says that after adjusting for dividends, marginal utility-weighted price should follow a martingale. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

44 One-period pricing equation
Using Ito lemma ,we have The one period pricing equation become 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

45 Pricing risk-free asset
We can think of a risk-free asset as having price 1 and paying rft as a dividend. i.e. p=1,Dt=rft. Or as a asset pays no dividend but whose price climbs deterministically at a rate: dpt/pt=rftdt Applying (1.29) we get (1.34): It’s equivalent to Rft=1/Et(mt+1). Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

46 More intuitive version
Using (1.34), we can rearrange (1.33) as(1.35): It’s analogue to E(R)=Rf-Rfcov(m,R). Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

47 Relationship between asset return and consumption risk
From we have: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

48 Relationship between asset return and consumption risk(2)
Ignoring the orders higher than dt, we have: (1.35)becomes (1.38) Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

49 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Sharp Ratio (1.38)can be rewritten as Using ρ≤1 and We have: Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

50 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
Problem 1.8 Suppose the utility function includes leisure. Derive the pricing function. It’s a multifactor model. Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong

51 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
请提问 Any Questions? 00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong 51

52 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong
00:30 Copyright © 2012 Zheng, Zhenlong


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